Manny Machado (Part 1)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah I don't get that mentality at all. This is an MVP player. Any or all of those prospects can be the next Matt LaPorta. This is the Brewers we're talking about. They have been competent lately but I'm tired of prospects. As long as it isn't the elite guys, and it sounds like it wouldn't be, pull the trigger on this, PLEASE.

 

Or Brantley, Cain, Escobar, etc...

 

If this was such a simple idea and Machado would unlock the "you will win the World Series" code, this trade would've been done yesterday. Unfortunately, it's complicated and a lot of people would prefer to keep the prospects if the price gets steep. And they very likely are not wrong to do so.

 

Except the odds are heavily tilted that he isn't Cain or Escobar and is another flameout. Because that's how odds work. Most players are flameouts.

 

While I don't want us to give anyone away, keeping prospects around that may never see regular time at Miller Park when we could get an MVP for three months does not make a lot of sense to me. This team has a chance right now. It's not about a magical unlocking the World Series code, no need to be a jerk about it. It's about a historically bad team having a shot.

[DocLuna7]

This could be ridiculous!

Cain CF

Yeich RF

Machado SS

Aguilar 1B

Shaw 2B

Thames/Braun LF

Pina/Nottingham C

Pitcher

Villar/Miller 2B

 

And then there's Perez, super glued to the bench and there just in case for every position.

 

Or Saladino.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah I don't get that mentality at all. This is an MVP player. Any or all of those prospects can be the next Matt LaPorta. This is the Brewers we're talking about. They have been competent lately but I'm tired of prospects. As long as it isn't the elite guys, and it sounds like it wouldn't be, pull the trigger on this, PLEASE.

 

Or Brantley, Cain, Escobar, etc...

 

If this was such a simple idea and Machado would unlock the "you will win the World Series" code, this trade would've been done yesterday. Unfortunately, it's complicated and a lot of people would prefer to keep the prospects if the price gets steep. And they very likely are not wrong to do so.

 

Except the odds are heavily tilted that he isn't Cain or Escobar and is another flameout. Because that's how odds work. Most players are flameouts.

 

Most players are flameouts...yes. Which is why you generally try to keep 10-15 prospects with good potential around in your system so that 3-4 can become very good players for you for 6 or 7 years as opposed to 3 months of a known commodity. That's also how odds work.

[shanedog19]

Random question, if we acquire Machado prior to the AS game, does he go as a Brewer or an Oriole?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You seem like one of those guys that hates every trade the day it happens. I can't believe there are people who'd be upset about giving up a couple guys who have probably a less than 25% of being good to get Manny Machado, in a season that the Brewers have a legitimate chance to not only make the playoffs, but go deep in them. I'd get the rationale if we made the playoffs every year but we've done it less than 5 times in 50 years.

 

At some point it is still worth it even if the prospects end up being productive. None of those guys are the shove the Brewers need to get there THIS season. Is Manny? Maybe not but I'd love to find out.

[YelichPosse]

Random question, if we acquire Machado prior to the AS game, does he go as a Brewer or an Oriole?

 

It's stated that he would go line up with the AL and wear a generic ALL STAR jersey and not be able to participate.

[Eye Black]

Random question, if we acquire Machado prior to the AS game, does he go as a Brewer or an Oriole?

My understanding is he would be recognized as an American League All-Star, but ineligible to play in the game. A somewhat similar situation happened with Jeff Samardzija a few years ago I believe.

[bill hAll Star]

You seem like one of those guys that hates every trade the day it happens. I can't believe there are people who'd be upset about giving up a couple guys who have probably a less than 25% of being good to get Manny Machado, in a season that the Brewers have a legitimate chance to not only make the playoffs, but go deep in them. I'd get the rationale if we made the playoffs every year but we've done it less than 5 times in 50 years.

 

At some point it is still worth it even if the prospects end up being productive. None of those guys are the shove the Brewers need to get there THIS season. Is Manny? Maybe not but I'd love to find out.

 

I was a fan of the Yelich trade. I liked the CC trade (but it was more due to the desperation).

 

I'm fine with some nuance. I'm all over the Machado trade if the headlining prospects are not our top tier ones. Having the take of "whatever, they're just prospects" is not something I'll agree with, though.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If I had some kind of crystal ball that showed me keeping three prospects would lead to a winning decade with no titles, and getting Machado for those three guys meant a World Series (I'll even settle for a mere appearance) and a lot more overall losing, I'd take that in a heartbeat. Yes, I know you can not win the title with him and still get the losing.

 

But I just don't see the names being mentioned here as franchise-ruining moves.

[homer]

Random question, if we acquire Machado prior to the AS game, does he go as a Brewer or an Oriole?

 

It's stated that he would go line up with the AL and wear a generic ALL STAR jersey and not be able to participate.

 

He'd be like a Russian Olympian!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No Hiura, Peralta or Burnes and I can find peace with anybody else we give up.

[tmwiese55]

Another thing to note as we hear LAD, AZ, Cubs in talks as well is that we'd also directly be stopping him from going to our competition in the playoffs which has value.

 

Also, I wonder what the Cubs would do with their lineup if they got him. Frankly I don't think they need him since so many guys have stepped up on O for them this year who were kinda question marks coming into the year. Maybe Schwarber is in the trade and then Bryant goes to left and Manny to 3B. Or Hayward to CF and Bryant to RF? But I think their CF has been doing well so why the need. Maybe could be including Russell and playing Manny at SS, though of course Baez should be the one playing SS.

[bill hAll Star]

If I had some kind of crystal ball that showed me keeping three prospects would lead to a winning decade with no titles, and getting Machado for those three guys meant a World Series (I'll even settle for a mere appearance) and a lot more overall losing, I'd take that in a heartbeat. Yes, I know you can not win the title with him and still get the losing.

 

But I just don't see the names being mentioned here as franchise-ruining moves.

 

It may not be franchise-ruining but it can kill exactly what has made the Brewers good the past 2 years and in the future (organizational depth).

 

Right now on TeamRankings, the Brewers' World Series odds are 4%. Say those are low and I'll grant you even a greater impact that Machado may have. It's possible that at best, the Brewers' odds are 15% with Machado, and I think that's high. Closer to the postseason it may rise closer to 20%, but having 10 good seasons with less firepower might give you a chance to win one or two like the Cards did where they got in for the better part of 10 years and accidentally won a World Series when they had arguably their worst teams.

[YelichPosse]

Random question, if we acquire Machado prior to the AS game, does he go as a Brewer or an Oriole?

 

It's stated that he would go line up with the AL and wear a generic ALL STAR jersey and not be able to participate.

 

He'd be like a Russian Olympian!

 

ZING!!

 

I do think a trade will... (and for our sanity should)... happen in the next 3 days. Just my hopes!

[TJH123]

Is Britton a rental as well?

[bill hAll Star]

Is Britton a rental as well?

 

Yes.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't even know how they gauge stuff like that. If the Brewers merely make the playoffs, which I get they still may not do, I don't believe for a second their odds at a WS are 4%. Baseball has way more potential for randomness than other major sports.

 

I struggle with how the Brewers can be 80% odds to make the playoffs and 4% to win the WS. Even it is 4%, that's a lot better than the 0 it typically is in mid July for Brewers fans.

[HarveysWBs]

I get being excited, but let's think about this rationally for a second. Who are these "sources?" If respected journalists are trusting what they're saying, then they are probably club sources with knowledge of negotiations. If that is the case, then they have a motive. You can also be pretty sure it isn't coming from Stearns' office, unless he has a leaky staff, which if I were him, I'd try like crazy to prevent. If we can assume it isn't from the Brewers' team, then that leaves the Orioles, and if they liked any of these players being leaked, we'd probably have a deal already. So, logically, the safe read here is that the Orioles are not terribly impressed with what we've been offering thus far (or at least are hoping for a bit better) and are leaking the Brewers' potential pieces (and possibly the Dodgers' too, based on what has been floated so far) to increase the bidding war.

 

I like Machado and what he could mean for the club, but if what has been floated thus far is not enough to get this done, I'm starting to get nervous about what it would take to close this deal. I have little reason to think Stearns is betting the farm on this year only, so I'm not terrified yet, but this is starting to sound like an expensive proposition.

[TJH123]

Very interesting that Zack Brown was scratched and makes it pretty clear that’s why Woodruff isn’t throwing either. A package of Woodruff, Brown, Phillips, and maybe 1-2 more pieces like Nottingham and Erceg to get the deal done if Britton is involved? 5 minor leaguers for 2 too oevel MLB players is reasonable especially if we are able to avoid trading Burnes, Peralta and Hiura. Cubs fans will be pissed if we keep our top 3 prospects cause that’s all I see them saying regarding the Brewers and the Machado rumors. I would hate to see Phillips and Brown traded though but if it’s for Machado I’m all for it. Phillips is blocked anyways and I really hope he catches on somewhere if he can’t here.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't even know how they gauge stuff like that. If the Brewers merely make the playoffs, which I get they still may not do, I don't believe for a second their odds at a WS are 4%. Baseball has way more potential for randomness than other major sports.

 

I struggle with how the Brewers can be 80% odds to make the playoffs and 4% to win the WS. Even it is 4%, that's a lot better than the 0 it typically is in mid July for Brewers fans.

 

To be fair, most projection systems still don't have the Brewers pegged correctly. But I'm even granting a high % of 20% and I'm basically just trying to say that it is not even close to a sure thing to advance very far with Machado for one year.

 

Part of the reason for that 4% is because a lot of the "make playoffs" 80% is a Wild Card opportunity, which has about a 50% chance of knocking you out in 1 game.

[pacopete4]

Very interesting that Zack Brown was scratched and makes it pretty clear that’s why Woodruff isn’t throwing either. A package of Woodruff, Brown, Phillips, and maybe 1-2 more pieces like Nottingham and Erceg to get the deal done if Britton is involved? 5 minor leaguers for 2 too oevel MLB players is reasonable especially if we are able to avoid trading Burnes, Peralta and Hiura. Cubs fans will be pissed if we keep our top 3 prospects cause that’s all I see them saying regarding the Brewers and the Machado rumors. I would hate to see Phillips and Brown traded though but if it’s for Machado I’m all for it. Phillips is blocked anyways and I really hope he catches on somewhere if he can’t here.

 

That’s way to much. Way, way too much for two guys that won’t be Brewers a season from now.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I can't get over how poor the Orioles asset management is. And I'm not just Captain Hindsight here.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I can't get over how poor the Orioles' asset management is. And I'm not just Captain Hindsight here.

[TJH123]

Very interesting that Zack Brown was scratched and makes it pretty clear that’s why Woodruff isn’t throwing either. A package of Woodruff, Brown, Phillips, and maybe 1-2 more pieces like Nottingham and Erceg to get the deal done if Britton is involved? 5 minor leaguers for 2 too oevel MLB players is reasonable especially if we are able to avoid trading Burnes, Peralta and Hiura. Cubs fans will be pissed if we keep our top 3 prospects cause that’s all I see them saying regarding the Brewers and the Machado rumors. I would hate to see Phillips and Brown traded though but if it’s for Machado I’m all for it. Phillips is blocked anyways and I really hope he catches on somewhere if he can’t here.

 

That’s way to much. Way, way too much for two guys that won’t be Brewers a season from now.

 

I disagree, cause the Orioles would be getting quantity over quality

[brewerfan82]

I don't even know how they gauge stuff like that. If the Brewers merely make the playoffs, which I get they still may not do, I don't believe for a second their odds at a WS are 4%. Baseball has way more potential for randomness than other major sports.

 

I struggle with how the Brewers can be 80% odds to make the playoffs and 4% to win the WS. Even it is 4%, that's a lot better than the 0 it typically is in mid July for Brewers fans.

Assuming it's a crapshoot once you're in the playoffs, after the initial Wild Card game, the remaining 8 teams would each have a 12.5% to win the World Series, which means the Wild Card teams each have half that chance at 6.25%. Most projection systems still see the Cubs as the division favorite, so *if* they make it to the playoffs, most systems see it as a Wild Card team. So stick them closer to that 6.25% spot *if* they make the playoffs and *if* all teams are equal. Add in there's a 20% chance they don't even make the playoffs, and add in the fact that most systems see them as one of the weaker teams if they do make it, 4% doesn't seem too far off.

 

Now... add in Machado, Realmuto, and a starting pitcher and I wonder how far that rises.