Manny Machado (Part 1)

[JohnBriggs12]

Article in today's Sun-Times suggesting the Cubs dealing Russell for Machado.

 

Nobody's been a bigger booster of Arcia than I have, but I wouldn't be opposed to dealing for Machado, if (and it's a big if), you think a. Arcia's never quite going to reach the level of premier shortstop and b. Dubon will be capable major league shortstop as soon as 2019. Expressed another way, if you think Arcia to Dubon is at worst a minimal dropoff, then you do the deal and go for it now, while Cain and Braun are still productive players.

 

Those out there thinking, well, now is not the time. This team isn't to the point where they can win a division. The answer to that is they'll never be odds on to win the division over the Cubs or the Cards who can make moves every year. But Machado deepens the lineup like few could.

[adambr2]

The thing about Machado is that I know it’s hard for us to look at this as a real option— but it absolutely can be. IF the Brewers want Manny Machado, they can go get him. The Orioles are going nowhere and need to retool and won’t risk losing him for just a comp pick. The Brewers have the need, money, and prospects.

 

Here’s the big caveat — it will be a rental. Barring some totally unforeseen circumstances, Machado would be ours for a few months and one pennant race and then gone with no compensation. So this is a move you make only if you’re near 1st in July, still have a disaster at SS, and really believe this can bring a World Series to Milwaukee.

Even then, that’s obviously not a sure thing and you need to weigh the risk/reward. The positive is you’d still have Arcia who would likely return to AAA for the remainder of the season before returning to Milwaukee in 2019.

 

The other good thing is, he’ll certainly be discounted as a rental and even more so the more time passes. I think now that Arcia/Burnes would be an overpay. I don’t like to use the middling return JD Martinez brought to the Tigers last year, because Manny is better and plays a premium position. I think, with the price of starting pitching at the deadline, the Darvish trade is a better comp. He cost the Dodgers Calhoun (a low top 100) and the 17th and 27th prospects in a good system.

 

So looking at ours, a comparable send might be Woodruff, Troy Stokes and Trey Supak. That’s a tough ask, but it isn’t going to kill us. So, can you stomach giving that up for half a season of Machado?

[bill hAll Star]

I know some guys with 1 year left have gone for much less in recent years, but I'm legitimately laughing out loud here at the thought of Russell or Arcia being talked about as the bigger chips in the deals. It's gonna cost the top portion of somebody's farm system even if he's just a rental.

[adambr2]

I know some guys with 1 year left have gone for much less in recent years, but I'm legitimately laughing out loud here at the thought of Russell or Arcia being talked about as the bigger chips in the deals. It's gonna cost the top portion of somebody's farm system even if he's just a rental.

 

I don’t agree, and I don’t see the comparable that you’re basing this on. There’s evidence just from last year that rentals get discounted significantly. I do think a Machado rental is worth more than a Martinez or Darvish rental, how much more I really don’t know. I could see having to center something around a Burnes type based on the competition and bidding for him.

 

Still, this isn’t 10 years ago when you could at least still get comped for a rental that you acquired. GMs are smarter and none are going to gut their farm just to rent one player for 2 to 3 months.

 

The Orioles also don’t have a ton of leverage without establishing a bidding war as their options are to either take the best offer at the deadline or lose him for a comp pick in a year that they’re going nowhere which would be a very dumb thing to do.

[bill hAll Star]

I know some guys with 1 year left have gone for much less in recent years, but I'm legitimately laughing out loud here at the thought of Russell or Arcia being talked about as the bigger chips in the deals. It's gonna cost the top portion of somebody's farm system even if he's just a rental.

 

I don’t agree, and I don’t see the comparable that you’re basing this on. There’s evidence just from last year that rentals get discounted significantly. I do think a Machado rental is worth more than a Martinez or Darvish rental, how much more I really don’t know. I could see having to center something around a Burnes type based on the competition and bidding for him.

 

Still, this isn’t 10 years ago when you could at least still get comped for a rental that you acquired. GMs are smarter and none are going to gut their farm just to rent one player for 2 to 3 months.

 

The Orioles also don’t have a ton of leverage without establishing a bidding war as their options are to either take the best offer at the deadline or lose him for a comp pick in a year that they’re going nowhere which would be a very dumb thing to do.

 

I get all of that, but you did mention Burnes, a very useful prospect. Maybe it's just wording, but the CST article talking about a package around Addison Russell or "maybe I'd part with Arcia" just sound so weird.

 

I get that Arcia is still young and could develop his bat, but the Orioles probably would get nothing out of those 2 given that they both have 3-ish years left and the Orioles seem 3-4 years away from something...and neither of those guys hold a ton of value other than being good, defense-only shortstops.

 

It just feels like Arcia or Russell would be throw-ins, even if it won't be an absolute haul to rent Machado.

[3and2Fastball]

You have to understand, this is the Orioles we are talking about. They are notoriously reluctant to rebuild in ways that are well beyond perplexing. They would probably ask for a package of Arcia, Burnes & Hader

[bill hAll Star]

You have to understand, this is the Orioles we are talking about. They are notoriously reluctant to rebuild in ways that are well beyond perplexing. They would probably ask for a package of Arcia, Burnes & Hader

 

I think we may be getting to the point where their hand may be forced, or they may "rebuild" by a early/mid 2000s Bucks-esque "we're trying to be mediocre" which ends up making them worse than if they tried to rebuild/tank, causing a tank and accidental rebuild.

[adambr2]

Someone is definitely going to get this guy. I'm guessing the price tag is going to be a little higher than we have thought because of the bidding and the level of potential superstardom you're getting here.

 

Epstein has come out and said he's not giving up premium prices for rentals anymore. Posturing, or real?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Someone is definitely going to get this guy. I'm guessing the price tag is going to be a little higher than we have thought because of the bidding and the level of potential superstardom you're getting here.

 

Epstein has come out and said he's not giving up premium prices for rentals anymore. Posturing, or real?

 

Easy for him to say right now, considering he has nothing of premium value in the minor leagues left. The cubs would have to part ways with 1-2 of their young mlb players (Russell + almora perhaps?) to put together a package I'd want in return for machado.

[MrTPlush]

Theo won a World Series on the back of a rental bullpen arm...total BS saying he won’t go big on a rental anymore.

[reillymcshane]

Theo won a World Series on the back of a rental bullpen arm...total BS saying he won’t go big on a rental anymore.

Another thing -- if the Cubs are really interested in Machado long term, getting him to Chicago and experiencing the culture, winning, etc., may give them an extra shot at signing him this off season.

 

While money will talk, if all things are equal - and Machado enjoyed his time in Chicago and likes their chances going forward - it might help them sign him.

 

Of course, that only matters if the Cubs are interested in Machado longterm.

[adambr2]

Theo won a World Series on the back of a rental bullpen arm...total BS saying he won’t go big on a rental anymore.

Another thing -- if the Cubs are really interested in Machado long term, getting him to Chicago and experiencing the culture, winning, etc., may give them an extra shot at signing him this off season.

 

While money will talk, if all things are equal - and Machado enjoyed his time in Chicago and likes their chances going forward - it might help them sign him.

 

Of course, that only matters if the Cubs are interested in Machado longterm.

 

Can the Cubs realistically afford 35-40M a year for Machado? I mean I know they have gobs of money compared to us, but they haven't exactly been a shining example of fiscal responsibility. Hayward is the worst one, but Darvish, Lester...they've got some guys in the low 8 figure a year commitments too. Rizzo has a decent contract through 2021 and I would guess they plan on letting him walk after, but I would guess Bryant is going to start approaching $20M or so annually in his later years of arbitration and there's no way they're going to let him walk, right?

 

I guess it wouldn't be too surprising though if they're in on one of Machado or Harper. I would think they might prefer Machado.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Don't forget guys like Baez, Schwarber, hendricks, and Russell start seeing big pay bumps via arbitration the next few seasons, too.

 

Unless the cubs don't care at all about the luxury tax, they'd be hard pressed to give machado what he wants in free agency.

[young guns]

While I know there's basically no chance we trade for him, the prospect of him in our lineup has me drooling. Assuming we throw in arcia what else would we need to add to make it close? Losing arcia would be tough with the uncertainty behind him with doubon losing the rest of the year and the chance of resigning machado being pretty much nil. But how fun would it be to trade for him and then have attanasio back up a brinks truck for him in the off season, coming off his world series mvp.

[adambr2]

The Machado opportunity kind of reminds me of the CC trade of 10 years ago.

 

I'm normally pretty dead set on trading anything of real value for rentals. However, I feel a little differently about Machado. I'm not saying yes, but I'm not saying no. I'd have to see how the trade market develops. But hear me out:

 

1. - SS is a major offensive hole. Arcia deserves a shot, but it doesn't have to be right now. He can return to AAA for the remainder of 2018, perhaps return in September. He's not going to be nuts about it, but you can certainly justify it based on performance the same way you could justify Broxton heading down after a 20/20 season when Cain and Yelich became available. And it's nice knowing even though you'll lose Machado after the season, your future SS is still here.

 

2. The NL is incredibly wide open. Unlike last year when you knew no matter what we did at the deadline, we were still a Tier 2 NL team, you don't really get that feeling right now.

 

I mean, crazy as this sounds ....everything else being equal, if we go out and acquire Manny Machado tomorrow, we have to be the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series this year, aren't we? Am I wrong to say that?

 

It's a tightrope act, because you want to preserve your future while also not letting your opportunities to win pass you by when you have them. For a city that hasn't seen a World Series in 36 years, you wonder at what point the ends justify the means.

 

Ideally, a team that does this deal would be able to make a move using their farm depth and be able to withstand some losses without necessarily hurting the future. Depth-wise, we're in a good position there -- if top prospect names start getting thrown out, then we're not. So I'm probably not interested if we're starting to look like a Hiura/Burnes package to get it done, but I'm definitely listening if we are looking more like a Peralta/Erceg/Phillips package.

[MadThinker88]

The Machado opportunity kind of reminds me of the CC trade of 10 years ago.

 

I'm normally pretty dead set on trading anything of real value for rentals. However, I feel a little differently about Machado. I'm not saying yes, but I'm not saying no. I'd have to see how the trade market develops. But hear me out:

 

1. - SS is a major offensive hole. Arcia deserves a shot, but it doesn't have to be right now. He can return to AAA for the remainder of 2018, perhaps return in September. He's not going to be nuts about it, but you can certainly justify it based on performance the same way you could justify Broxton heading down after a 20/20 season when Cain and Yelich became available. And it's nice knowing even though you'll lose Machado after the season, your future SS is still here.

 

2. The NL is incredibly wide open. Unlike last year when you knew no matter what we did at the deadline, we were still a Tier 2 NL team, you don't really get that feeling right now.

 

I mean, crazy as this sounds ....everything else being equal, if we go out and acquire Manny Machado tomorrow, we have to be the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series this year, aren't we? Am I wrong to say that?

 

It's a tightrope act, because you want to preserve your future while also not letting your opportunities to win pass you by when you have them. For a city that hasn't seen a World Series in 36 years, you wonder at what point the ends justify the means.

 

Ideally, a team that does this deal would be able to make a move using their farm depth and be able to withstand some losses without necessarily hurting the future. Depth-wise, we're in a good position there -- if top prospect names start getting thrown out, then we're not. So I'm probably not interested if we're starting to look like a Hiura/Burnes package to get it done, but I'm definitely listening if we are looking more like a Peralta/Erceg/Phillips package.

 

Allow me to play Orioles mgmt (becuz no one really knows who is calling the shots over there). The only thing really known about Baltimore's asking price during this past off-season for Machado was "reportedly" costing multiple top pitching prospects (that were close to MLB ready) & iron clad agreement that team not turn around & then deal Machado to the Yankees. Its the need for pitching where I believe the Cubs would fall short in trying to put a deal together for Machado. Baltimore also has to deal with other pending higher profile Free Agents in Adam Jones, Zach Britton & Brad Brach.

 

As the Orioles I'm looking for at least a 3 player package in return for Machado.

I'm demanding 1 from each the following pairs of young pitchers: Hader/ Burnes & Woodruff/F Peralta to start the trade package. Ortiz does not interest me as he can't stay healthy & has never pitched over 95 IP in any season.

After that I likely need more INF help than OF (I have multiple OF options in the upper minors, a couple almost ready) so 1 of Hiura/ Erceg to round out the 3 player package.

 

If your suggesting Hader & Burnes are both untouchable, then I need both Woodruff & F Peralta along with both Erceg & Hiura.

 

Your thoughts adambr2??

[paul253]

As much as I like Machado I think trading for him would be foolish. It’d cost a ton and he’s gone after this year. Our system lacks top tier talent as it is, trading away what little top tier talent we do have will really hurt the systems depth. Id rather get a Neil Walker type who can be an upgrade over Arcia’s woeful numbers than to go all in on Machado.

 

I still think if we go all in on anyone it needs to be a quality starting pitcher who is here at least thru next season. The bullpen is historically good right now and the offense, when everyone is healthy, is more than capable. We need help at SS and possibly at catcher but I wouldn’t go crazy trading away 4 of our top 6 prospects for half a season of Machado.

[adambr2]

The Machado opportunity kind of reminds me of the CC trade of 10 years ago.

 

I'm normally pretty dead set on trading anything of real value for rentals. However, I feel a little differently about Machado. I'm not saying yes, but I'm not saying no. I'd have to see how the trade market develops. But hear me out:

 

1. - SS is a major offensive hole. Arcia deserves a shot, but it doesn't have to be right now. He can return to AAA for the remainder of 2018, perhaps return in September. He's not going to be nuts about it, but you can certainly justify it based on performance the same way you could justify Broxton heading down after a 20/20 season when Cain and Yelich became available. And it's nice knowing even though you'll lose Machado after the season, your future SS is still here.

 

2. The NL is incredibly wide open. Unlike last year when you knew no matter what we did at the deadline, we were still a Tier 2 NL team, you don't really get that feeling right now.

 

I mean, crazy as this sounds ....everything else being equal, if we go out and acquire Manny Machado tomorrow, we have to be the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series this year, aren't we? Am I wrong to say that?

 

It's a tightrope act, because you want to preserve your future while also not letting your opportunities to win pass you by when you have them. For a city that hasn't seen a World Series in 36 years, you wonder at what point the ends justify the means.

 

Ideally, a team that does this deal would be able to make a move using their farm depth and be able to withstand some losses without necessarily hurting the future. Depth-wise, we're in a good position there -- if top prospect names start getting thrown out, then we're not. So I'm probably not interested if we're starting to look like a Hiura/Burnes package to get it done, but I'm definitely listening if we are looking more like a Peralta/Erceg/Phillips package.

 

Allow me to play Orioles mgmt (becuz no one really knows who is calling the shots over there). The only thing really known about Baltimore's asking price during this past off-season for Machado was "reportedly" costing multiple top pitching prospects (that were close to MLB ready) & iron clad agreement that team not turn around & then deal Machado to the Yankees. Its the need for pitching where I believe the Cubs would fall short in trying to put a deal together for Machado. Baltimore also has to deal with other pending higher profile Free Agents in Adam Jones, Zach Britton & Brad Brach.

 

As the Orioles I'm looking for at least a 3 player package in return for Machado.

I'm demanding 1 from each the following pairs of young pitchers: Hader/ Burnes & Woodruff/F Peralta to start the trade package. Ortiz does not interest me as he can't stay healthy & has never pitched over 95 IP in any season.

After that I likely need more INF help than OF (I have multiple OF options in the upper minors, a couple almost ready) so 1 of Hiura/ Erceg to round out the 3 player package.

 

If your suggesting Hader & Burnes are both untouchable, then I need both Woodruff & F Peralta along with both Erceg & Hiura.

 

Your thoughts adambr2??

 

Hmm, well, first I think I'd counter that you are going to trade Machado, it's just a matter of being the top bidder.

 

I know the Orioles are a little...unstable in this regard, but I just can't even fathom that letting Machado walk for basically nothing is even a possibility. So there's no way you're letting Machado remain in an Orioles uniform in August, so that's where you lose some leverage. You do however still have leverage in the fact that Manny is really good and there will be competition for his services.

 

I should mention here that Hader is absolutely off the table in any discussions for Manny. He's just so far above everyone else on that list that I would think the Orioles would take him straight up for Manny if they could. Maybe not, but they should. And trading Hader just hurts the Brewers too much both in the short and long term.

 

I doubt Burnes is on the table either but I could at least see it. I think the Brewers would be more open to it if guys like Ortiz and Peralta were coming along nicely.

 

The Brewers do have the pitching prospects to get it done if they want and Woodruff + Peralta + Erceg is not an unreasonable ask. Hiura is probably a deal breaker as a 4th piece. I'd counter with Phillips.

[adambr2]

As much as I like Machado I think trading for him would be foolish. It’d cost a ton and he’s gone after this year. Our system lacks top tier talent as it is, trading away what little top tier talent we do have will really hurt the systems depth. Id rather get a Neil Walker type who can be an upgrade over Arcia’s woeful numbers than to go all in on Machado.

 

I still think if we go all in on anyone it needs to be a quality starting pitcher who is here at least thru next season. The bullpen is historically good right now and the offense, when everyone is healthy, is more than capable. We need help at SS and possibly at catcher but I wouldn’t go crazy trading away 4 of our top 6 prospects for half a season of Machado.

 

Hypothetically speaking (and I don't think it would take 4 of our top 6), what would the result need to be for acquiring Manny to be worth it in your opinion? World Series appearance? World Series win? Or doesn't matter, still not worth it?

[paul253]

I guess it depends on what we have to give up. Given how we’ve handled the rotation since Stearns has been here (handled in the sense that he avoided trading prospects for established pitching and passed on free agents) it seems like we are kind of depending on our starting pitching prospects to fill in the rotation the next few years. If we have to trade two or three of our best pitching prospects (say Burnes and Peralta or Woodruff) PLUS a top positional prospect I think we would have to change our entire strategy the next few years to fill in the rotation. I’m not sure how “worth it” that would be but it would certainly be risky. I’m also of the opinion that our rotation isn’t strong enough to win the WS this year so that increases the risk further.

 

To answer your question, if trading for Machado guaranteed a championship then yes I’d move Burnes, Hiura and Peralta (as an example). But I think it’s too risky to give up so much right now given that even with Machado we are far from guaranteed a championship.

[MadThinker88]

adambr2,

Let's look at it this way, if they had equal control, it would cost more to get Machado than Yelich. Part of that is a result of a top defensive SS/ 3B is worth more than a corner OF.

 

The reduced control brings Machado down to the Yelich cost level or a little lower. The Brewers can hold back on some of their assets if they choose. But, as you pointed out, the O's can continue shopping for the best offer. The O's have many other suitors for Machado. There is only 1 Machado on the market.

 

If the Brewers wanted to have a deal made (sooner than later) they need to make the package as sweet as possible (with an expiration date on the offer) so they can get Machado sooner & have him for more time during 2018.

[Bnowell4evr]

adambr2,

Let's look at it this way, if they had equal control, it would cost more to get Machado than Yelich. Part of that is a result of a top defensive SS/ 3B is worth more than a corner OF.

 

The reduced control brings Machado down to the Yelich cost level or a little lower. The Brewers can hold back on some of their assets if they choose. But, as you pointed out, the O's can continue shopping for the best offer. The O's have many other suitors for Machado. There is only 1 Machado on the market.

 

If the Brewers wanted to have a deal made (sooner than later) they need to make the package as sweet as possible (with an expiration date on the offer) so they can get Machado sooner & have him for more time during 2018.

 

The thought that Brewers would have to give up 3 borderline top 100 prospects for a half season of Manny Machado is completely asinine. History suggests that rentals require 1 premium prospect and usually a couple more filler types. Aroldis Chapman is an outlier in that he brought back a 2nd quality prospect in Billy McKinney when the next best prospect is usually someone like Ariel Pena or The Ultimate Warrior Johnny Hellweg. IMO any trade for Machado probably starts and stops with Orlando Arcia. The Orioles top SS prospect is playing in rookie ball and their 2nd best SS prospect is a 23 year old in A ball posting a sub .700 OPS. They may be asking for a pitcher or two but SS should be their number 1 target in a trade. It's unfortunate about Mauricio Dubon because we might have been able to build a package around him and another pitcher or two not named Burnes or Peralta.

[paul253]

The thought that Brewers would have to give up 3 borderline top 100 prospects for a half season of Manny Machado is completely asinine. History suggests that rentals require 1 premium prospect and usually a couple more filler types

 

Manny Machado isn’t your typical rental though. He’s putting up MVP caliber numbers at a premium position and he’s in the prime of his career. He’s not some reliever or #3 type pitcher. Yes his value is diminished but multiple teams will still come calling. Arcia might tempt them but he’s struggling terribly right now and if Baltimore doesn’t think this is an outlier then Arica is worthless to them.

[Bnowell4evr]

The thought that Brewers would have to give up 3 borderline top 100 prospects for a half season of Manny Machado is completely asinine. History suggests that rentals require 1 premium prospect and usually a couple more filler types

 

Manny Machado isn’t your typical rental though. He’s putting up MVP caliber numbers at a premium position and he’s in the prime of his career. He’s not some reliever or #3 type pitcher. Yes his value is diminished but multiple teams will still come calling. Arcia might tempt them but he’s struggling terribly right now and if Baltimore doesn’t think this is an outlier then Arica is worthless to them.

 

Greinke as a rental brought back Jean Segura and two hard throwing AA pitchers with major control issues. Are you trying to suggest that Greinke was perceived as a #3 when we traded him to the Angels?

 

Honestly, Orlando Arcia and two pitchers like Cody Ponce and Trey Supak is the best they could hope for. The Cubs are perceived as the favorites because they have Addison Russell that they would be willing to part with.

[Bnowell4evr]

If the Orioles are looking for a replacement for Machado then they won't find their replacement from prospects.

 

Of the top 10 SS Prospects according to MLB Pipeline.

- Only 4 teams are at or above .500 in the standings. (Rockies, Nationals, Rays & A's)

--The Rockies would never trade 6 years of an elite prospect like Brendan Rodgers for a rental.

--The Nationals have Carter Kieboom to offer but he's only in A+ ball and is a few years away from playing in the majors.

-- The A's and Rays would never trade their elite prospects for a rental when they're just fighting to stay above .500.

 

Because the Orioles aren't planning on a complete rebuild, it makes major league shortstops with control like Russell and Arcia that much more appealing.