Manny Machado (Part 1)

[mattyo]

Some rumors that the Orioles want catchers Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers) and Francisco Mejia (Cleveland). If true, my guess is they probably want Nottingham from us. How would we feel about Nottingham and Woodruff for Machado? My guess is the answer to that question depends on whether you see Pina as a long-term solution at catcher or not.

 

They might want them, but they're not getting them.

[KeithStone53151]

Some rumors that the Orioles want catchers Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers) and Francisco Mejia (Cleveland). If true, my guess is they probably want Nottingham from us. How would we feel about Nottingham and Woodruff for Machado? My guess is the answer to that question depends on whether you see Pina as a long-term solution at catcher or not.

 

They might want them, but they're not getting them.

 

Mejia, LOL. If we are talking fantasy trades, I'll take Machado and Britton and they can have Kratz. Meanwhile, I'll send over Brett Phillips straight up for Degrom.

[RollieTime]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

[Bnowell4evr]

Some rumors that the Orioles want catchers Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers) and Francisco Mejia (Cleveland). If true, my guess is they probably want Nottingham from us. How would we feel about Nottingham and Woodruff for Machado? My guess is the answer to that question depends on whether you see Pina as a long-term solution at catcher or not.

 

I would bet that the Orioles are targeting value more so than a specific position. Both Ruiz and Mejia are top 50 prospects.

[tmwiese55]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

 

With the emergence of Peralta, I think I'd do this. When folks have been throwing out packages with two of our top guys and 3-5 total players I was out. But if it's just one guy I think I go for it, and that's coming from someone who's been fairly staunch on not giving up our controlled P prospects.

[bill hAll Star]

I honestly have no idea what it's going to take for Machado.

 

I understand the "LOL that for a rental" crowd and I also understand that there are a fair amount of bidders for Machado. I could see it being a surprisingly high cost for Machado or surprisingly not much.

[mattyo]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

 

With the emergence of Peralta, I think I'd do this. When folks have been throwing out packages with two of our top guys and 3-5 total players I was out. But if it's just one guy I think I go for it, and that's coming from someone who's been fairly staunch on not giving up our controlled P prospects.

 

I hear what you're saying, but as has already been discussed in this thread (40 man crunch), I would much rather deal in quantity than quality if possible.

[KeithStone53151]

I honestly have no idea what it's going to take for Machado.

 

I understand the "LOL that for a rental" crowd and I also understand that there are a fair amount of bidders for Machado. I could see it being a surprisingly high cost for Machado or surprisingly not much.

 

I'm kinda where you are at. I'm going to LOL at these premium prospects reported like Mejia or Verdugo or Hiura, I also don't think Burnes or Ruiz or any of that next tier gets included...but who knows with the type of talent Machado is. If it gets to that level, I don't think the Brewers get him. I really don't think we include Burnes in this trade.

[Jenkins5]

Personal feeling, Peralta, Burnes, Hiura off limits for a rental.

 

Orioles get:

Santana/Broxton

Ortiz/Woodruff

3rd piece more difficult to predict could be another AA guy like Stokes. On a higher end Diplan or Erceg

 

Keep seeing Arcia tossed around on here, don’t see it happening.... not for rental. Gold glove defense, hit okay last year, still very young.... I highly doubt DS & CC are done with him & giving up already.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I honestly have no idea what it's going to take for Machado.

 

I understand the "LOL that for a rental" crowd and I also understand that there are a fair amount of bidders for Machado. I could see it being a surprisingly high cost for Machado or surprisingly not much.

 

I agree. There is so much smoke out there right now regarding the potential package needed, it's hard to know what is legit. Personally, I think packaging Broxton with a pitcher is a solid use of system depth for an immediate upgrade. I like Burnes, but not nearly as much as many others here do. I'd be ok with Burnes and Broxton for Machado, although it would be nice to either hang onto Burnes or use him as currency to acquire either a top starter or a more controllable asset such as Realmuto.

[KeithStone53151]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

 

With the emergence of Peralta, I think I'd do this. When folks have been throwing out packages with two of our top guys and 3-5 total players I was out. But if it's just one guy I think I go for it, and that's coming from someone who's been fairly staunch on not giving up our controlled P prospects.

 

Just because a guy is expendable, doesn't mean we should give him away. We need to keep value in mind, Burnes probably gets Machado...but that feels like a steep overpay. We could get more for Burnes if intent on trading him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think with the number of potential suitors, the one thing that will be universally agreed upon at the end of this is how Oriole management found a way to bungle the eventual trade. They are either going to wind up holding onto Machado for too long in hopes to drive up potential offers and end up getting less value, or they are going to pull the trigger on a trade after overvaluing some team's offer due to a prospect only they really like.

 

The advantage the Brewers have in all this is the big market NL teams potentially interested (LAD, Cubs) either have luxury tax concerns or nothing in their system worth headlining a Machado trade, which could drive the value down to something that a quantity-type package from the Brewers headlined by either Woodruff or Burnes could wind up being the best available deal. I can definitely see someone like the Dbacks swooping in with a desperation move and making the asking price too steep for DS to stomach for 2.5 months of Machado. Hopefully the fact that there are 3 juggernauts in the AL, plus the Indians and Mariners, is enough to dampen some of the NL 'meh' contenders' appetite for buying this deadline.

[YelichPosse]

If Burnes and Broxton were talked about I would do Woodruff, Broxton, and a AA-A type arm. I could live with that.

[brewerbomb]

If Burnes and Broxton were talked about I would do Woodruff, Broxton, and a AA-A type arm. I could live with that.

 

Agreed, I dont think there is any way that Stearns is moving Burnes for a rental. Probably 1 of Woodruff or Ortiz, 1 of Broxton or Phillips, and a flyer for Machado.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Burnes and Broxton were talked about I would do Woodruff, Broxton, and a AA-A type arm. I could live with that.

 

Why are we discounting Woodruff so much? He is every bit the prospect Burnes is ... the only difference is he's got some MLB time. Why in the world would we rather include Woodruff and another good arm than Burnes?

[TJH123]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

 

With the emergence of Peralta, I think I'd do this. When folks have been throwing out packages with two of our top guys and 3-5 total players I was out. But if it's just one guy I think I go for it, and that's coming from someone who's been fairly staunch on not giving up our controlled P prospects.

 

Nope, don’t give up Burnes for a rental. The goal is to make the postseason for multiple years not just this year and Burnes (if he pans out) helps with that more than Machado, unless he resigns with us which he won’t.

 

If the rumors that they want 2 controllable starters, outfield help, and a catcher prospect are true, I’m offering Woodruff, Ortiz, Broxton, and Nottingham. Zack Brown is another close to MLB ready pitching prospect that is performing well too. I’m not giving up Burnes, Peralta or Hiura unless it’s for a player with multiple years of control like Yelich.

[tmwiese55]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

 

With the emergence of Peralta, I think I'd do this. When folks have been throwing out packages with two of our top guys and 3-5 total players I was out. But if it's just one guy I think I go for it, and that's coming from someone who's been fairly staunch on not giving up our controlled P prospects.

 

I hear what you're saying, but as has already been discussed in this thread (40 man crunch), I would much rather deal in quantity than quality if possible.

 

Fine with that too. I'd be fine if their starting point was none of Burnes, Keston, Peralta and if that's not good enough then so be it. But just saying if all this cost was one top prospect that it's not a bad deal valuewise so to speak. Even if it was Burnes/Broxton I'd still guess some lower level prospect or player to be named gets included. This would free up 3 40 man spots though at the end of the year.

[Humans Need Water]

Jon Morosi was just on MLB Central and believes the Brewers will end up acquiring Machado in exchange for RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Keon Broxton when it is all said and done.

Morosi said that 1.5-2hrs ago when I mentioned that rumored proposal. If that's what he thinks it'll end up being with us beating out the Dodgers then we might not have to go as high as Burnes. Dustin May is probably their most talented pitcher and he's 2yrs younger than Ortiz and in A+. Ortiz has to be focusing on developing certain pitches (ie throwing at certain times in certain quadrants of the zone) before they let him loose in AAA. Woodruff is 25 and MLB ready yesterday. I'd put Ortiz/May in the same boat. I don't think this requires us to go to Burnes to land Machado as we can take on all his salary whereas LA can't. We can also include secondary pieces are various positions that are MLB ready (Broxton, Houser) as well as lower tier prospects as sweeteners (these can even come from AA players on Rule 5 eligible list). Now, all this assumes they're more interested in MLB ready/upper minors pieces for the secondary ones. But I personally think Woodruff/Ortiz match up well with what the Dodgers can offer

[statman0007]

Even if the Orioles aren't specifically targeting a catcher, there were other reports that they want "major league ready" prospects. Outside of our elite prospects, I think that Woodruff and Nottingham are one of our few prospects that fit this description. From what I understand Orioles have some depth at OF, so they may not value Santana/Broxton/Phillips as much as we wish they did.

[markedman5]

I'd prefer giving up Ortiz instead of Burnes

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-appear-best-positioned-to-land-machado/c-284949674

[RollieTime]

I don’t see Stearns trading away any of the top 3 prospects in a deal for Machado either. I think he would be much more inclined to swap in someone like Luis Ortiz or Zack Brown for Burnes and add a third piece such as Trey Stokes Jr. to get it done.

[homer]

The nice thing about the Orioles is that they are horrible judges of talent especially pitching.

[Point Beer Is Best]

If it's true that the Orioles desire MLB-ready talent, including at least one rotation piece, I would probably go with Woodruff & Phillips since they need a replacement for Adam Jones next year (or this year if they deal him too). I'd rather deal Broxton, but they may be more interested in Phillips.

 

The luxury tax situation with the Dodgers is going to force their hand in terms of prospects. If Machado ends up going to LA with the O's kicking in money, we can't really use those prospects as a baseline for "what would the equivalent have been" for us.

[Humans Need Water]

If Burnes and Broxton were talked about I would do Woodruff, Broxton, and a AA-A type arm. I could live with that.

 

Why are we discounting Woodruff so much? He is every bit the prospect Burnes is ... the only difference is he's got some MLB time. Why in the world would we rather include Woodruff and another good arm than Burnes?

I agree with you that way too many people on here discount Woodruff and his talent. But if I'm choosing who to keep I'm choosing Burnes. His secondary pitches are equal too/slightly better than Woodruff but he has more control and that's the main reason I'd keep him. Again, I don't think we need to give up Burnes to land Machad nor do I think we should. But I would use Woodruff or Ortiz if the secondary piece is Broxton. Santana was mentioned in the article too along with Arcia but they're both better players than Broxton and I think that's definitely an overpay if they're part of it along with one of our Top 5 pitching prospects.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I went putzing through the orioles fan forums, I've also added a link below for those curious. I'll put it nicely and say they have some lofty expectation for their Machado return.

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/31981-machado-trade-expectations/&page=52

 

I personally started around page 42 and read through. The 2 craziest demands I saw were Arcia + Burnes + Ortiz and Hiura + Burnes + Peralta + Carmona. The latter of the two was by an admin. Occasionally there would be a voice of reasoning saying something like "Burnes is probably the best player we can hope for", but most are Hiura or bust...and would prefer to deal with the Dodgers.

 

From that fan message board:

I would make a deal around [Arcia] as a center piece. Arcia, Burns, Woodruff, and Zack Brown(not the singer) would be a solid deal.

 

*Closes laptop*

*Throws it into the Fox River*