Manny Machado (Part 1)

[reillymcshane]

I don't think there is any way Machado will sign an extension early, so I wouldn't even consider that angle. While renting a guy for 2-3 months isn't an ideal situation, it can be to our advantage as the cost of a really good player doesn't have to be that high.

 

I've said from the start, make a play for the guy, but set what you're willing to give up and don't go over it. If it works, great. If not, then so be it.

 

At this point, I wouldn't include Hiura or Peralta in any kind of deal. Peralta has the potential to be an impact player down the stretch - and Hiura just looks like a keeper. Neither is worth giving up for 2-3 months of Machado (no matter how much I'd love to see him in our lineup).

[trwi7]

Is he actually really that bad defensively?

 

-7.8 UZR, -19 DRS. Small sample and maybe he'll get better as he gets used to shortstop again but that doesn't really help us in the three months he'll be on the team and he's really bad defensively right now.

[SRB]

Food for thought:

 

ZiPS RoS Manny Machado: .359 wOBA

ZiPS RoS Brad Miller: .338 wOBA

[Humans Need Water]

I am certainly getting the vibe that the Orioles want to move Machado early and the first team that throws out two pitchers that meet the criteria will probably land him. I would assume the Dodgers have put Dennis Santana on the table. Caleb Ferguson (or maybe Brock Stewart) could be candidates here as well. To me it looks like the Dodgers have slightly better second pieces than Milwaukee (although I'd take Woodruff over Santana, etc) so that might give them the advantage.

If the Os want two controllable MLB ready arms and LA has Santana included then our entire AA rotation is in the mix given he's thrown a total of 14 innings between AAA/MLB over the past 2wks and was previously in AA (78 innings total at that level) between last/this year. Woodruff is the most logical. Houser, Diplan are also on the 40 man (along with Lopez) so that would clear several spots instantly. Other Rule 5 guys as additions could be Derby, QTC, Ponce, Kirby, Bickford, Perrin, Supak or even Stokes/Gatewood/Grisham. The Os have a top prospect 3b who's performing well in AA so you'd assume they'd prefer someone who can play SS. I find it difficult to believe Stearns would part with 6yrs of Dubon for a rental while also giving up Woodruff as well.

 

While I'd rather not even give up Woodruff in a rental situation he's sandwiched between Peralta/Burnes and Ortiz/Brown so it's not as if we can't afford to part with him to take a shot at it this year. Then we could still use Ortiz (most likely) in a package to land Stroman.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Then we could still use Ortiz (most likely) in a package to land Stroman.

 

um, no - stay as far away from Stroman as humanly possible - he's damaged goods and 5'8" pitchers don't age well at all, anyways. If the Brewers want to go after a frontline pitcher and are willing to give up the prospect capital it takes to acquire one with plenty of team control, go after Sean Manaea at the deadline if the A's can't make up any ground on a playoff spot over the next few weeks.

 

the point of acquiring Machado isn't to bring in an elite defensive SS who is also pretty good offensively - the point is to replace the dead last MLB offensive production the Brewers have gotten from SS this year with a guy who would probably be the team's best hitter.

[PlayerHader]

Food for thought:

 

ZiPS RoS Manny Machado: .359 wOBA

ZiPS RoS Brad Miller: .338 wOBA

 

Seriously?

[Diggr1414]

Would Aguilar or Thames make sense in the deal?

 

 

Thames, Arcia, Ortiz be enough?

 

Never saw the point in platooning Thames and Aguilar. Aguilar is a stud, just move on from Thames.

[bill hAll Star]

Would Aguilar or Thames make sense in the deal?

 

 

Thames, Arcia, Ortiz be enough?

 

Never saw the point in platooning Thames and Aguilar. Aguilar is a stud, just move on from Thames.

 

There was once a point to platooning him before Aguilar did his launch angle improvement thing (or at least I think he has) that took him from an average hitter against righties/good hitter against lefties to a good hitter against righties and elite against lefties.

 

He's hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. Long story short, he went from a guy you'd want to platoon last year to someone that needs to start every day.

 

To your trade offer: No, I don't think Thames helps them. I know people think they're going to stupidly go after MLB talent but I don't think they're that stupid to value Thames who doesn't fit their next window.

[JosephC]

Now the talk is that the Orioles want Dodger RHP prospect Dustin Mays and he's not MLB ready quite yet. Possibly will be mid-2019, I would think that would be the absolute earliest for him. So either the 2 MLB ready starters report was false, or the Orioles have come to realize that's not going to happen and have adjusted their expectations.

[Brewcrewin07]

Brewers appear best positioned to land Machado

 

[KeithStone53151]

I went putzing through the orioles fan forums, I've also added a link below for those curious. I'll put it nicely and say they have some lofty expectation for their Machado return.

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/31981-machado-trade-expectations/&page=52

 

I personally started around page 42 and read through. The 2 craziest demands I saw were Arcia + Burnes + Ortiz and Hiura + Burnes + Peralta + Carmona. The latter of the two was by an admin. Occasionally there would be a voice of reasoning saying something like "Burnes is probably the best player we can hope for", but most are Hiura or bust...and would prefer to deal with the Dodgers.

[Humans Need Water]

Then we could still use Ortiz (most likely) in a package to land Stroman.

 

um, no - stay as far away from Stroman as humanly possible - he's damaged goods and 5'8" pitchers don't age well at all, anyways. If the Brewers want to go after a frontline pitcher and are willing to give up the prospect capital it takes to acquire one with plenty of team control, go after Sean Manaea at the deadline if the A's can't make up any ground on a playoff spot over the next few weeks.

 

the point of acquiring Machado isn't to bring in an elite defensive SS who is also pretty good offensively - the point is to replace the dead last MLB offensive production the Brewers have gotten from SS this year with a guy who would probably be the team's best hitter.

I'd disagree on the damaged goods and I don't care about the aging of short pitchers when they turn 29 in May of the final year we control them. That's not old. He does have risk of course, just like Thor, except he's much cheaper. I've also mentioned Manaea and Fulmer in the past as great targets. They'll require more to acquire and I also could see Arcia potentially in a package for either.

 

And your last point has nothing to do with anything I said so not sure why you're stating the blatantly obvious to everyone. We all know his bat is the attraction, and even though he sucks at SS (according to DRS), that side doesn't matter as much over the next 2.5 months.

 

I questioned the Os wanting two controllable starters because that didn't make sense when analyzing who LA and the Brewers had to offer as they'd be limiting their scope for acquiring talent. Now there's reports that it's Burnes + Broxton as the offer....I can't see Burnes for a rental. Woodruff, Ortiz in his place I think it's fair to say we can all see that as realistic. Broxton makes sense as he'd upgrade at least 1 OF spot immediately for them and is controllable.

[mattyo]

Brewers appear best positioned to land Machado

 

 

 

I'm starting to get nervous.

[splitterpfj]

I wonder if the O's would have interest in taking back Davies as part of a deal for Machado?

 

With his current injury, I doubt it, but I think you're on the right track.

 

I don't think Baltimore will pull an elite prospect in the return for Machado, and they've said they want multiple MLB-ready players in return, so I could see them taking a young veteran back as part of the deal.

 

I think that plays in the Brewers' favor, because we have Arcia, Broxton, Davies, Santana, and Villar, for example - guys who have had success in the big leagues at some point, and who have multiple seasons of control left - if I'm Baltimore, and if that obvious prospect can't be had, I go for multiple players, to increase my odds of having success in this deal.

 

The stock on these guys is down right now, so go get them, and wind up with 3-4 guys. I think the Orioles should push it, and ask for Arcia, Santana, Woodruff, and a kid - whoever the teams can agree on - guys like Erceg, Gatewood, Houser, Medeiros, Diplan and Stokes.

 

In that scenario, the question the Brewers have to ask is, "Are we willing to enter 2019 with neither Arcia, nor Machado here to play SS?" That's a risky move, but the rest of what they'd be giving comes from depth, the risk at SS going forward is the real price we'd be paying.

 

If Milwaukee thinks adding Machado gets them to the 2018 World Series, and if no team throws that elite prospect at the Orioles, I think the Brewers are very well positioned to get him.

 

Bump. This is still the way I see it, the Brewers have the mix of "MLB-ready" types the Orioles want, including young pitching. I think the Brewers are the best match, for this reason, and when you add in our ability to take on the rest of Machado's contract without having to create space, that just makes the fit all the better.

 

At this point, I actually expect the Brewers to get Machado - as I said in my original post, someone will have to change course and throw an elite kid at the O's to change where this is heading - maybe that happens, but right now, I doubt it.

[YelichPosse]

Looking back at the JD Martinez trade as a measuring stick from last year....

 

Anything of the combo of Woodruff, Broxton, Santana, Arcia with any filler prospects or what not... would be better than what Detroit got last year.

 

It's funny these reports of TOP prospects being talked about, because as been stated many times, you don't give TOP prospects for a rental, unless you are the Cubs.

 

This plays well into DS methods because he values controllable talent and prospects as much as he does the big name.

 

We have many ways we can offer a package better than LA or AZ or whoever else wants to come into the race , because we have ML ready players (even selling low on) who are better than the lottery tickets that others would offer. Heck, plus we can offer some lottery tickets that won't hurt us - as has been stated - since we have a 40 man roster crunch coming.... because we have TOO much depth !

 

All good things!

 

Don't be surprised if DS gifts us with Manny, AND an arm, heck maybe even Realmuto as well... if he got a controllable arm and Realmuto, we wouldn't need to much worry about prospects for a couple years... we would be very set at most spots for 2-4 years!

 

Ahhhh the possibilities - now I hope there is SOME action or I will be sadly disappointed!

[bill hAll Star]

Don't be surprised if DS gifts us with Manny, AND an arm, heck maybe even Realmuto as well... if he got a controllable arm and Realmuto, we wouldn't need to much worry about prospects for a couple years... we would be very set at most spots for 2-4 years!

 

Well, here's the thing:

 

Davies and others in the rotation have random injuries. Freddy Peralta comes up and is great and wins several games. Nelson is out for the year and all we really had to do was get Chacin and we still had a decent rotation with some depth ready behind it.

 

Yelich/Cain/Braun/Thames all get hurt for periods of time. This Broxton guy comes up and literally wins a game for us.

 

Shaw is out for a while, our middle infield underachieves, and we shift guys around and get solid production out of what we end up with. We have the surplus of Choi to trade for Miller.

 

OK, now take a look at above and think "we don't have to worry about prospects for a while!"

 

Now imagine Cain or Yelich or Realmuto go down for a month or so next season. It's not that we wouldn't have anyone like Broxton waiting, but do you remember the days of having to roll with Yuni Betancourt for months at a time? Yeah, that type of stuff can definitely happen.

[splitterpfj]

The 40-man isn't big enough to hold all of the "keepable" guys the Brewers will have this winter, so dealing from depth makes a lot of sense right now, but don't think for one second that David Stearns will blow his depth out, just because he has it.

 

I expect, "young, controllable talent" to be the foundation of Stearns' work for his entire career - he'll seek opportunities, and make his moves, but those moves could be a "depth for Manny Machado", or a "three teenage pitchers for Adam Lind", or both in the same week.

[YelichPosse]

Don't be surprised if DS gifts us with Manny, AND an arm, heck maybe even Realmuto as well... if he got a controllable arm and Realmuto, we wouldn't need to much worry about prospects for a couple years... we would be very set at most spots for 2-4 years!

 

Well, here's the thing:

 

Davies and others in the rotation have random injuries. Freddy Peralta comes up and is great and wins several games. Nelson is out for the year and all we really had to do was get Chacin and we still had a decent rotation with some depth ready behind it.

 

Yelich/Cain/Braun/Thames all get hurt for periods of time. This Broxton guy comes up and literally wins a game for us.

 

Shaw is out for a while, our middle infield underachieves, and we shift guys around and get solid production out of what we end up with. We have the surplus of Choi to trade for Miller.

 

OK, now take a look at above and think "we don't have to worry about prospects for a while!"

 

Now imagine Cain or Yelich or Realmuto go down for a month or so next season. It's not that we wouldn't have anyone like Broxton waiting, but do you remember the days of having to roll with Yuni Betancourt for months at a time? Yeah, that type of stuff can definitely happen.

 

Oh I remember. All too well. Remember when Jose Hernandez was a big signing at shortstop? lol.

 

All I am saying is, as far as locked up, we would have almost every position locked up for a few years. There is enough depth to have a 40-man roster crunch. We have good problems. Don't be surprised if DS goes big on some deals that set us up this year AND next year. There is still surplus!!

 

I'm not saying get silly with EVERY prospect, but we have some play money here. The one guy I don't want to trade is Peralta, because I think he will only get better. Hiura would love to keep as well, but if he nets Realmuto or deGrom (those are about the only two I'd deal him towards) - then I'm game!

[KeithStone53151]

I'll also add, the Dodgers are going to have significant trouble fitting Machado's remaining salary under the luxury tax cap. Don't underestimate how significant of a hurdle this is...as SS isn't the Dodgers only need. They need SP and RP along with SS help. It's possible the Dodgers need to offer much better prospects to also have some $ sent over.

[TJH123]

If they can get this done without giving up Burnes, Hiura, or Peralta I’m all for it, but I don’t want to give up a single one of those 3 for a half season rental who will get $200 million from the Yankees or another team this offseason. Maybe Woodruff, Broxton, Ray, Medeiros?

[RollieTime]

I'll also add, the Dodgers are going to have significant trouble fitting Machado's remaining salary under the luxury tax cap. Don't underestimate how significant of a hurdle this is...as SS isn't the Dodgers only need. They need SP and RP along with SS help. It's possible the Dodgers need to offer much better prospects to also have some $ sent over.

 

Very good point. That is a big hurdle for the Dodgers that could keep them out of the running for Machado.

[bill hAll Star]

Don't be surprised if DS gifts us with Manny, AND an arm, heck maybe even Realmuto as well... if he got a controllable arm and Realmuto, we wouldn't need to much worry about prospects for a couple years... we would be very set at most spots for 2-4 years!

 

Well, here's the thing:

 

Davies and others in the rotation have random injuries. Freddy Peralta comes up and is great and wins several games. Nelson is out for the year and all we really had to do was get Chacin and we still had a decent rotation with some depth ready behind it.

 

Yelich/Cain/Braun/Thames all get hurt for periods of time. This Broxton guy comes up and literally wins a game for us.

 

Shaw is out for a while, our middle infield underachieves, and we shift guys around and get solid production out of what we end up with. We have the surplus of Choi to trade for Miller.

 

OK, now take a look at above and think "we don't have to worry about prospects for a while!"

 

Now imagine Cain or Yelich or Realmuto go down for a month or so next season. It's not that we wouldn't have anyone like Broxton waiting, but do you remember the days of having to roll with Yuni Betancourt for months at a time? Yeah, that type of stuff can definitely happen.

 

Oh I remember. All too well. Remember when Jose Hernandez was a big signing at shortstop? lol.

 

All I am saying is, as far as locked up, we would have almost every position locked up for a few years. There is enough depth to have a 40-man roster crunch. We have good problems. Don't be surprised if DS goes big on some deals that set us up this year AND next year. There is still surplus!!

 

I'm not saying get silly with EVERY prospect, but we have some play money here. The one guy I don't want to trade is Peralta, because I think he will only get better. Hiura would love to keep as well, but if he nets Realmuto or deGrom (those are about the only two I'd deal him towards) - then I'm game!

 

I'm all for making shrewd moves at the right time, but "every position locked up" is a bit over the top there.

 

I think you're overrating how easily some of these guys are going to turn into good players in our system. We have a lot of nice/interesting players, but outside of Hiura/Burnes, I'm not seeing a ton of massive trade chips or guys that we can be confident will be great depth in the next year or two. There is a lot of depth so we'll have a few more that should come up and turn into bigger prospects, but it's not going to be at every position.

 

It can thin out and leave us vulnerable to an injury real quick.

[KeithStone53151]

I wonder if the O's would have interest in taking back Davies as part of a deal for Machado?

 

With his current injury, I doubt it, but I think you're on the right track.

 

I don't think Baltimore will pull an elite prospect in the return for Machado, and they've said they want multiple MLB-ready players in return, so I could see them taking a young veteran back as part of the deal.

 

I think that plays in the Brewers' favor, because we have Arcia, Broxton, Davies, Santana, and Villar, for example - guys who have had success in the big leagues at some point, and who have multiple seasons of control left - if I'm Baltimore, and if that obvious prospect can't be had, I go for multiple players, to increase my odds of having success in this deal.

 

The stock on these guys is down right now, so go get them, and wind up with 3-4 guys. I think the Orioles should push it, and ask for Arcia, Santana, Woodruff, and a kid - whoever the teams can agree on - guys like Erceg, Gatewood, Houser, Medeiros, Diplan and Stokes.

 

In that scenario, the question the Brewers have to ask is, "Are we willing to enter 2019 with neither Arcia, nor Machado here to play SS?" That's a risky move, but the rest of what they'd be giving comes from depth, the risk at SS going forward is the real price we'd be paying.

 

If Milwaukee thinks adding Machado gets them to the 2018 World Series, and if no team throws that elite prospect at the Orioles, I think the Brewers are very well positioned to get him.

 

Bump. This is still the way I see it, the Brewers have the mix of "MLB-ready" types the Orioles want, including young pitching. I think the Brewers are the best match, for this reason, and when you add in our ability to take on the rest of Machado's contract without having to create space, that just makes the fit all the better.

 

At this point, I actually expect the Brewers to get Machado - as I said in my original post, someone will have to change course and throw an elite kid at the O's to change where this is heading - maybe that happens, but right now, I doubt it.

 

I really like your optimism, and I hope you're right. I still think the Dodgers find a way to make it work despite all their obstacles. It's also possible the Diamondbacks make an all-in move considering their team situation, but I'm not sure SS is their biggest need.

[statman0007]

Some rumors that the Orioles want catchers Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers) and Francisco Mejia (Cleveland). If true, my guess is they probably want Nottingham from us. How would we feel about Nottingham and Woodruff for Machado? My guess is the answer to that question depends on whether you see Pina as a long-term solution at catcher or not.

[Humans Need Water]

Ruiz is already off the table and there's no way CLE parts with Mejia for a rental