Manny Machado (Part 1)

[Humans Need Water]

Heyman reports the Brewers are definitely in on Machado. To what extent, impossible to say.

 

https://fancredsports.com/articles/jon-heyman-milwaukee-checks-on-machado-as-mostly

There's nothing in that article that says the Brewers are in on Machado let alone definitely in on him. Of course they're going to kick the tires to see what the asking price is but I'd bet my life that's where it ends, as it should. That article also mentioned Orf...but not Saladino. Yikes.

 

You're really splitting hairs to say it doesn't say they're in on them but then admit of course they're kicking the tires. I even said its impossible to say to what extent they'd be in on him.

Huh? I don't think you and others understand what "splitting hairs" means. You said they're *definitely* in on him. That means they're having deep discussions, doing their due diligence and working toward lining up a legitimate offer now/at crunch time. *Kicking the tires* means making a call to see what they're expecting in return simply to gauge whether it even makes sense to put in the time/effort of doing their due diligence and making an offer.

 

They're not even remotely close to being the same.

[adambr2]

Ok HNW. I'm not going to have a silly debate on word and term definitions with you. You win.

[Humans Need Water]

Everyone here throws WAR around so that means they use UZR when discussing how someone grades out defensively because that's the metric calculated in WAR. UZR *does not* take into account where a player is positioned. The Brewers shift more than almost every team in baseball. So, for example, if Shaw is shifted over to SS for a lefty and that hitter slaps a routine grounder to where a traditional 3b plays and it rolls into LF for a single that means Shaw is negatively graded on that play because that ball traveled at a pace and in a zone on the field where a 3b makes that play 99% of the time and he didn't make it (then compares it to the average player at that position). Whereas DRS simply grades on plays/outs made compared to the average player at that same position (doesn't matter where you are positioned to start because it's about making plays/outs). UZR is comically unreliable as a result, therefore making fWAR unreliable.

 

The point being - Machado is horrific at SS yet nobody will mention that side of the ball. People have no problem berating Villar, Miller and anyone else potentially taking over at SS but they'll bypass Machado because of his bat and name. Machado has a -20 DRS after 3 months at SS. Villar at SS in 2016 had a 5 DRS (yeah that's right - he isn't garbage there). Miller had seasons of -2, -3, -4, -14. Saladino had a -1 in initial brief stint (like Miller right now) then 2. Last year with his nerve damage that great affected him he was -1 and this year he's 3 thus far. Arcia was 6 last year and is 9 this year. That's how bad Machado is defensively at SS as opposed to 3b where he's a freak of nature.

 

Stearns isn't giving up Arcia, Burnes, Ray for 2 months of Machado's bat when that package can land us 2.5-3yrs of a TOR arm. His big moves have said I want to immediately improve the team as well as down the road (Shaw, Cain, Yelich) as opposed to small move rentals that immediately improve the team (Walker, Swarzak) giving up Cordell and a nobody. Given we're not resigning Machado he's not giving up anything of that kind of value for 2 months of him when that can be used to help the team now and long-term (ie Stroman, etc).

[Boomer5]

Arcia is a serious sell low, Ray isn’t an elite prospect anymore, and Burnes hit a rough patch.

 

I do think that gets us Machado but no way that gets us a 2.5 to 3 controllable TOR.

[Boomer5]

Point being I think the only true needle mover that won’t cost us Hiura is Machado.

[NievesNoNO]

According to Jim Bowden, Verdugo and Yadi Alvarez aren't enough:

 

....Former MLB executive Jim Bowden opined that Machado would be a great fit for the Dodgers, but revealed that the club’s current offer of Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo wouldn’t be enough to entice the Orioles, via CBS Sports:

 

“To get that bat to go with Muncy in the middle of the diamond would be great, but their offer of Verdugo and Alvarez, I’m told, is not even close to enough to get Machado,” Bowden said.

 

https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-trade-rumors-yadier-alvarez-alex-verdugo-not-enough-to-acquire-orioles-manny-machado/2018/07/05/

[adambr2]

According to Jim Bowden, Verdugo and Yadi Alvarez aren't enough:

 

....Former MLB executive Jim Bowden opined that Machado would be a great fit for the Dodgers, but revealed that the club’s current offer of Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo wouldn’t be enough to entice the Orioles, via CBS Sports:

 

“To get that bat to go with Muncy in the middle of the diamond would be great, but their offer of Verdugo and Alvarez, I’m told, is not even close to enough to get Machado,” Bowden said.

 

https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-trade-rumors-yadier-alvarez-alex-verdugo-not-enough-to-acquire-orioles-manny-machado/2018/07/05/

 

Yeah, forget Manny if that's true. The Orioles are pretty stupid not to take that.

[MrTPlush]

That’s not even close? Must really hate both those guys.

 

If that report is true we ain’t getting Machado. If it costs that much whoever is getting him is making one terrible trade if they don’t win it all.

[KeithStone53151]

If that report is true, then nobody is getting Machado. He'll end up staying with the Orioles. I personally don't even believe the Dodgers are offering that, but sometimes teams get desperate and overpay for elite talent.

[NievesNoNO]

According to Jim Bowden, Verdugo and Yadi Alvarez aren't enough:

 

....Former MLB executive Jim Bowden opined that Machado would be a great fit for the Dodgers, but revealed that the club’s current offer of Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo wouldn’t be enough to entice the Orioles, via CBS Sports:

 

“To get that bat to go with Muncy in the middle of the diamond would be great, but their offer of Verdugo and Alvarez, I’m told, is not even close to enough to get Machado,” Bowden said.

 

https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-trade-rumors-yadier-alvarez-alex-verdugo-not-enough-to-acquire-orioles-manny-machado/2018/07/05/

 

Yeah, forget Manny if that's true. The Orioles are pretty stupid not to take that.

 

It's impossible to say with any certainty how true any reports are, but yes, if that's true Baltimore is crazy. Good luck to them I guess.

[adambr2]

If that report is true, then nobody is getting Machado. He'll end up staying with the Orioles. I personally don't even believe the Dodgers are offering that, but sometimes teams get desperate and overpay for elite talent.

 

That's one of those offers that seems absurd enough to wonder if it isn't just false.

 

That's not that far off from us offering Hiura and Burnes for Machado and being told we're not even close.

[KeithStone53151]

If that report is true, then nobody is getting Machado. He'll end up staying with the Orioles. I personally don't even believe the Dodgers are offering that, but sometimes teams get desperate and overpay for elite talent.

 

That's one of those offers that seems absurd enough to wonder if it isn't just false.

 

That's not that far off from us offering Hiura and Burnes for Machado and being told we're not even close.

 

Right? If I'm the Dodgers I don't even consider trading Verdugo for Machado unless I'm also getting back Britton. It's a bit easier for the Dodgers to part with a prospect like Verdugo with their positional player situation. They are probably better served to use Verdugo to acquire SP if they were intent on trading him.

 

I think there's a reason Bowden is a former exec and not a current exec. Guy is in the stone-age of understanding baseball. He probably thinks Machado is good because of his high RBI total.

[MrTPlush]

If that report is true, then nobody is getting Machado. He'll end up staying with the Orioles. I personally don't even believe the Dodgers are offering that, but sometimes teams get desperate and overpay for elite talent.

 

Manny Machado will get traded. If they are saying it isn’t even close it may be for now, but eventually they will take the top offer. I don’t think the Orioles are crazy if the competition is that crazy high demanding that kind of price. The can posture for more All the way up to the deadline if they want. Not necessarily a bad move.

 

That report seems questionable though. Something there isn’t true in my opinion.

[shanedog19]

Hard pass on Machado. I think his value down the stretch is incommensurate with what it will take to land him. Plus I highly doubt he would re-sign with us, making him a true two or three month rental.

[Never Outhustled]

That’s not even close? Must really hate both those guys.

 

If that report is true we ain’t getting Machado. If it costs that much whoever is getting him is making one terrible trade if they don’t win it all.

 

Alvarez is completely wild. They might prefer a pitcher with some level of actual pitchability.

 

The O's really struggle at player evaluation. They might accept offers that others would consider weaker, but to them it's a good offer.

 

In the end, they will likely accept hyped but flawed prospects, and get burned le they do on a regular basis.

[nate82]

That’s not even close? Must really hate both those guys.

 

If that report is true we ain’t getting Machado. If it costs that much whoever is getting him is making one terrible trade if they don’t win it all.

 

Alvarez is completely wild. They might prefer a pitcher with some level of actual pitchability.

 

The O's really struggle at player evaluation. They might accept offers that others would consider weaker, but to them it's a good offer.

 

In the end, they will likely accept hyped but flawed prospects, and get burned le they do on a regular basis.

 

The last major trade that I can remember the Orioles doing in terms of prospects was the Bedard trade where they received Adam Jones Chris Tillman and a couple of throw ins in return. Adam Jones was not a flawed prospect and Tillman was good until injuries hit him.

 

Other than that the only other prospect trade that I can remember would be Chris Davis and the Orioles didn't do that bad in that trade either.

 

You can fault the Orioles for poor drafting and some questionable free agent signings but prospect trades they have been fairly good at.

[Humans Need Water]

Arcia is a serious sell low, Ray isn’t an elite prospect anymore, and Burnes hit a rough patch.

 

I do think that gets us Machado but no way that gets us a 2.5 to 3 controllable TOR.

You don't think Arcia, Burnes, Ray could land 2.5yrs of Stroman? Take a look at what Sonny Gray brought back - very similar comp with Stroman. I'll take Arcia, Burnes, Ray package any day over what the As got. Yeah it's selling low on Arcia but if he doesn't rebound offensively then what? He still has plenty of value at this point. If he becomes even halfway decent offensively where his bat doesn't hurt you then there's a lot of value there. Burnes is still Top 60 and MLB ready - look at his road numbers, they're great. CS killed him. Ray absolutely has bounced back - definitely not to his elite status pre-2017 but he's putting together a strong AA and is sitting at a 121 wrc+ with a 12% BB rate and will finish with 25+ doubles, 5+ triples, 15+HR, 25+ SB. That's a strong package in general

[MrTPlush]

Arcia is a serious sell low, Ray isn’t an elite prospect anymore, and Burnes hit a rough patch.

 

I do think that gets us Machado but no way that gets us a 2.5 to 3 controllable TOR.

You don't think Arcia, Burnes, Ray could land 2.5yrs of Stroman? Take a look at what Sonny Gray brought back - very similar comp with Stroman. I'll take Arcia, Burnes, Ray package any day over what the As got. Yeah it's selling low on Arcia but if he doesn't rebound offensively then what? He still has plenty of value at this point. If he becomes even halfway decent offensively where his bat doesn't hurt you then there's a lot of value there. Burnes is still Top 60 and MLB ready - look at his road numbers, they're great. CS killed him. Ray absolutely has bounced back - definitely not to his elite status pre-2017 but he's putting together a strong AA and is sitting at a 121 wrc+ with a 12% BB rate and will finish with 25+ doubles, 5+ triples, 15+HR, 25+ SB. That's a strong package in general

 

Well that would first depend on if he thinks Stroman is even a TOR arm. I’m not so sure he is. The comp is probably accurate assuming teams feel like Stroman can be like his 2017 self.

[Eye Black]

You can fault the Orioles for poor drafting and some questionable free agent signings but prospect trades they have been fairly good at.

Don’t forget to fault them for annually punting on the International free agent market as well. I would have zero faith in the Orioles front office right now if I was a fan of the team.

 

It’s actually kind of impressive that an organization with Manny Machado in the lineup has now gone 28-82 over their past 110 games.

[rickh150]

Lots of good infielders available.... won't need to send top prospects away for an above avg talent.

[cesser000]

Lots of good infielders available....

I hear Sogard's out of a job right now

[nate82]

Don’t forget to fault them for annually punting on the International free agent market as well. I would have zero faith in the Orioles front office right now if I was a fan of the team.

 

It’s actually kind of impressive that an organization with Manny Machado in the lineup has now gone 28-82 over their past 110 games.

 

Can't believe I forget about that they completely forget about the international free agency.

 

Lots of good infielders available.... won't need to send top prospects away for an above avg talent.

 

What are you smoking? Machado is anything but an above average talent he is the 2nd best offensively at SS in all of baseball only Lindor is playing better than he is. If you move Machado back to 3B he is the 5th best offensively. Overall Machado is the 5th best hitter in all of baseball. If that is "above avg talent" then wow you have some serious bias going on.

[IntentionalHBP]

New article from Mlb trade rumors states that brewers and six other teams have made an offer for Machado. The dodgers have the most enticing offer but it is believed all offers are around the same value.

[adambr2]

New article from Mlb trade rumors states that brewers and six other teams have made an offer for Machado. The dodgers have the most enticing offer but it is believed all offers are around the same value.

 

Here's the link to that article:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/7-teams-have-made-offers-for-manny-machado.html

 

It also states that contrary to previously stated information that the Dodgers have not offered either of Verdugo or Alvarez yet.

 

The article implies that we have made the 3rd best offer for Machado behind the Dodgers and DBacks but states all offers are very close.

[superfly]

To be a devil's advocate on the payroll comments....on the other hand, Machado is the type of guy that could extend the range of our fan base and allow us to up that payroll above the historical range for the long term. No, I don't foresee us signing him long term, but guys like Machado would increase interest in the Brewers significantly.