Manny Machado (Part 1)

[mlloyd10]

Saw something that Machado should be dealt soon (not that he would)

 

Would we be laughed at if we offered Arcia/burnes?

[adambr2]

Saw something that Machado should be dealt soon (not that he would)

 

Would we be laughed at if we offered Arcia/burnes?

 

I'm not saying that it isn't something along the lines of what the Orioles would be seeking for a caliber of player like Machado, because that's probably a minimum, but boy, you better win the World Series if you're going to offer that up for less than a year of a player.

 

I don't think we would even with Machado so he's probably not a great trade fit for us.

[reillymcshane]

Saw something that Machado should be dealt soon (not that he would)

 

Would we be laughed at if we offered Arcia/burnes?

I don't think that is out of line.

 

By trading Machado in the near future, Baltimore would save around $12-13M. That is not insignificant - especially for a club that has some

 

I remembered an article from late last year pinioning that Addison Russell for Machado would be a fair deal. Here it is:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46311/why-cubs-should-make-addison-russell-for-manny-machado-blockbuster-deal

 

I guess the big question is what is Arcia worth. His glove is good - and could be great - but his hitting is a bit iffy. Still real young - so you never really know. Will he develop a little pop in time? Or will he just be a free swinger type who'll never really hit that well?

 

But hey, even if he's a 2.0-2.5 WAR guy - you're talking five years at that level - that's pretty good. In fact, I'd say that was probably just fine. However, elite players usually have a premium on their price tag. So if you have to, you add in Burnes and you have a really solid package.

 

Baltimore wouldn't be getting superstar caliber players - but they'd be getting some nice value - and both players would fit into their future plans. The question is if someone else is willing to give up better.

 

Honestly, Machado at SS would make our team really pretty awesome - at least this year. After that, we'd be kinda screwed at SS.

 

One thing the club could do -- take on a contract as well. No, not Alex Cobb. But what about someone like Darren O'Day? Makes $9M this year and next. That's a lot - too much in my opinion - so by taking it back his salary you lessen the cost for Manny. And the guy could still help out in the pen this year and next.

 

As I said, Machado would be a beast in our lineup. Right now, we have too many black holes in our offense - including SS. Machado would change that.

 

PS - I'm not necessarily advocating for this trade. I'd hate to give up Arcia. To me, he's a critical part of the team for the next five years. And I hate 'going for it' when we just aren't that good. So this is just speculation on my part.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess the big question is what is Arcia worth. His glove is good - and could be great - but his hitting is a bit iffy. Still real young - so you never really know. Will he develop a little pop in time? Or will he just be a free swinger type who'll never really hit that well?

He hit 15 HRs last season, as a scrawny 22-yo. I think he has already demonstrated pop, but to your point, the discipline is the key now.

 

He hit at every level of the minors, & had scouts raving about his contact ability all the way up the ladder.

 

I believe Arcia will become a perennial .800+ OPS bat, & I think that could be as soon as this season. And because of that, I think shipping him off for a partial season of Machado is an awful idea.

[MadThinker88]

Baltimore was/ is looking to get young controllable starting pitching in any deal of Machado & assurances that the team will not flip him to the Yanks..

That was the cost all off-season & the assurances on not flipping Manny is why the deal was not done.

 

Because he is a FA after the season & he is going to test the FA waters & any team getting him now would be unable to extend a Qualifying Offer to recoup any prospect capital, I would not include Arcia in an offer.

 

Since I think the chance of success is greater with Burnes & Woodruff & Machado is most likely a rental, I would try to craft a package around both F. Peralta & L. Ortiz. It should be noted that the Orioles have to deal with Adam Jones being a FA after the season as well so they might like getting some OF help for beyond this season. I'd even include C. Ray (who has cooled off after a very good start). If the trade package is sweet enough, the Orioles could then spend their own current assets to find a SS to fill in after Machado is gone.

 

So my thoughts are F Peralta, Ortiz & Ray for Machado..

[Lathund]

To me this is a trade you make if you're already a playoff calibre team, and want to get over the hump to be able to challenge the very top teams for the WS. The Brewers are currently at the point where even the best case scenario for Machado (Trade for him early and have him edge out his three best years to produce 6 WAR for the rest of the season) might still only result in a WC. That's not worth it for a rental. He doesn't get us close enough to the WS this year, and the move will hurt us long term.

[NYChez]

I was going to start another thread, but it's a similar thought process as with Machado: Brian Dozier. The Twins are desperate for pitching.

[wallus]

It seems like the really good teams (Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros) have outstanding offensive shortstops. I feel like this is a player we need to get to move us forward. What kind of contract would he realistically be looking at after this season?

[JosephC]

If the free agent market is as crappy next off-season as it was this off-season, I could see Machado having to settle for something like 6 years, 162 million. But one would have to anticipate, with all the big market teams having their luxury tax penalty reset, that there will be big, big, big money thrown around. I'd anticipate something like 8 years, 232 million...wouldn't be completely shocked if it would push near 300 million considering Machado will only be 26 years old.

 

The longer teams wait to make a trade the more the price-tag will come down. The price tag would be ridiculously high right now. Trading for him late in July, the trading team knows they will only have 2 months out of him, and then the price should be fairly reasonable. See the J.D. Martinez return last year. Arcia and Burnes wouldn't be a consideration now IMO, but late in July if Arcia is OPS'ing something like .730 and Burnes is pitching well and has solidified himself as a solid top 50 prospect, then an Arcia/Burnes package for Machado might be competitive on the market. It just depends on how desparate other teams would be to add him.

[adambr2]

I'd expect you'd have to open with something like 8/240 just to stay engaged and even that wouldn't be enough.

 

He'd also have to fall in love with Milwaukee in the next 5 months because any offer we make can be beat or matched by the bigger market teams.

 

Much like CC of a decade ago, you're most likely looking at a rental.

[pacopete4]

I just don’t think this is a realistic option.

[trwi7]

It seems like the really good teams (Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros) have outstanding offensive shortstops. I feel like this is a player we need to get to move us forward. What kind of contract would he realistically be looking at after this season?

 

At minimum 8/250 but more realistically probably something like 10-12/325-400.

[JohnBriggs12]

I was going to start another thread, but it's a similar thought process as with Machado: Brian Dozier. The Twins are desperate for pitching.

 

It's a fairly safe assumption that the Twins will be sellers at the deadline and Dozier will be available. It's still possible that they can feast on the White Sox, Royals and Tigers enough to contend for a wild card, but right now the AL playoff teams are pretty well set,

[Mr Southpaw]

9-13 with 140 games to go?

[DocLuna7]

Since this is a rebuilding year couldn’t we just sign him this off season?

[tmwiese55]

With Seager out, it popped in my head for LAD to go for Machado. They have a loaded farm and unlimited money. Sounds like they could find a way to stay under the tax this year and then just re-sign him and play Seager at 2B when he's back. Seager and Bellinger will be cheap for a few more years. I just don't see why not to try if I'm them.

[pacopete4]

Machado to LA makes so much sense it is a perfect fit.

[Chicago Here]

i wouldnt give up arcia unless we signed machada for a few years....and that wont happen. Arcia is progressing and will be incredible in a short time. More likely would be to get machado in August.....pay handsomely for the rest of the year but im sure we will have to wait in line.

 

True, ws are weak, currently, with a young ss but we can always use a catcher as well.

 

One thing is clear, we are close to prime time but as the cubs series proved, we arent ready yet. So, if we want to get past the wc we will have to address ss or catcher. Unless we develop just as quick this year as last year.

[reillymcshane]

Machado to LA makes so much sense it is a perfect fit.

Yeah, this works really well. A lot of teams won't want Machado as a rental - but he works perfectly for the Dodgers. And LA has a deep farm system so they can make that kind of a deal.

[Jaylyn]

Listening to the Brew-Reds game last night, Marty Brennaman stated that LA is going to move Chris Taylor to SS and are shopping for an OF.

[Roderick]

.....LA is .... shopping for an OF.

 

That is why the Braun was pulled early. Trade imminent.

[bill hAll Star]

Machado to LA makes so much sense it is a perfect fit.

Yeah, this works really well. A lot of teams won't want Machado as a rental - but he works perfectly for the Dodgers. And LA has a deep farm system so they can make that kind of a deal.

 

I don't think the Dodgers are going to do this unless a bunch of teams freeze out the O's (since they'll all have the "it's his last year, take it or leave it" leverage) and the bidding goes down. I think their team is truly in peril for 2018 and Friedman doesn't seem like the kind of guy that is going to dismantle pieces for 2019 and beyond to potentially still miss the playoffs.

[Mr Southpaw]

How uncommon would it be to sign and trade for Machado? If we could do that, I would make Arcia, Santiago and Burnes as the main part of the deal.

 

Maybe he would take a shorter deal like 4/$130 making him 29 at the end of the deal and still primed for another contract and not burden the Brewers super long term.

 

Maybe take Trumbo in the deal for Agulier or Choi as all three are basically the same player and gives them salary relief.

 

For everybody that says it cost too much, it is Mark's money and he can spend it if he wants. I do think he wants to win.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Maybe he would take a shorter deal like 4/$130 making him 29 at the end of the deal and still primed for another contract and not burden the Brewers super long term.

 

That's over $30M per year for four seasons - many of which would occur during periods when other players on the roster come due for arbitration raises or free agency. That deal would absolutely burden the Brewers for 1 player and would be foolish for them to do.

 

And Machado won't sign a deal like that - only way he'd be a free agent again is if his 8 or 10 year free agent deal that he signs for that amount this offseason has an opt-out clause he an exercise when he's 29 if he thinks the market will pay him more 4 seasons from now. If he gets injured or underperforms, he wouldn't opt out and would continue saddling whatever monster market team he signed with for another 4-6 seasons as he coasts into the sunset of his mid 30's making $30M+ per season.

[adambr2]

Yeah, players like Machado don’t take deals like 4/130. That puts all the risk on him. They take longer term deals with multiple opt outs which puts all the risk on the team and still gives him the chance to enter free agency again at 29 or whenever.

 

Sucks, but that’s how it goes.