NFL Draft Thread

[PeaveyFury]

I said in another thread that some team would look stupid tonight, and it appears that it was the Saints. Glad it was to our benefit.

[adambr2]

I said in another thread that some team would look stupid tonight, and it appears that it was the Saints. Glad it was to our benefit.

 

Seahawks' pick was kind of a shocker.

[PeaveyFury]

A couple of quick 2nd day thoughts:

 

How is Will Hernandez still there? Is he falling based on something I missed? I know OT is perhaps more of a priority for GB, but he seems like immense value here.

 

I like Hernandez, either of the Jacksons or Oliver (if they double-dip on DB), James Daniels, Landry, Chark, Connor Williams, or Sutton in the 2nd. Seems like a lot of value on the o-line here, or potentially our pick of the 2nd-tier receivers.

[PeaveyFury]

I said in another thread that some team would look stupid tonight, and it appears that it was the Saints. Glad it was to our benefit.

 

Seahawks' pick was kind of a shocker.

 

Good call. A couple of reaches (sorry, you too Pittsburgh) by typically solid organizations at the end of the round. Has the luster worn off of John Schneider a bit? Their pick tonight is the type of move that makes you either look like a genius or gets you fired in a couple of years.

[adambr2]

Ugly. Terrible

 

Trade down 13spots for a 5th only? The 1st next season could be in the mid-20s where you just moved back to. A season where you will likely also pick mid 20. Should jave gotten a 3rd this year vs the 5th

 

If you were an NFL GM, you would rather have one (late) 3rd round pick in the current year than a 5th in the current year and a guaranteed 1st round pick of unknown position next year? Really?

 

Unless I'm reading that wrong and you mean we should have gotten a 1st next year + a 3rd this year, in which case I would disagree. Saints already gave up way too much.

[reillymcshane]

Well, some interesting guys available for tomorrow. Here are some of my favorites:

 

Will Hernandez, James Daniel and Austin Corbett - interior offensive linemen - really good players, good value - can start right away.

Harold Landry - OLB - Would be great value - and really fill a need.

Dallas Goedert - TE - Probably don't need, but I like the guy and think he'll be good.

Justin Reid - S - Good, smart player who could come in and contribute right away.

Josh Jackson - CB - Not that much of a need anymore, but would be great value at the pick.

Christian Kirk - WR - I don't know that the much about the wideouts - but I like Kirk. However, he's more of a slot guy. But there are several highly ranked ones still there.

 

I'm sure there are other guys -- I've just named some that I've taken note of.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ugly. Terrible

 

Trade down 13spots for a 5th only? The 1st next season could be in the mid-20s where you just moved back to. A season where you will likely also pick mid 20. Should jave gotten a 3rd this year vs the 5th

 

If you were an NFL GM, you would rather have one (late) 3rd round pick in the current year than a 5th in the current year and a guaranteed 1st round pick of unknown position next year? Really?

 

Unless I'm reading that wrong and you mean we should have gotten a 1st next year + a 3rd this year, in which case I would disagree. Saints already gave up way too much.

 

12picks this year. 1 was top 15. The move down to 27 for a 1st rd next year, as stated will likely be after 15. As well as ours outside top 15. Now they moved back up and got (supposedly) the player they were going to draft at 14. But this move on its own, I dont like parting away from a top 15 to pick 25+ and a ? For 1st next season. Big gamble. Prior to trading back up, youre talking (hypothetically) a chance for a 90+ grade player. Impact. For 1 80s grade player and most likely 80s grade next season. Meanwhile with 12picks now 45 and beyond youre talking below 80grade filling out your team. Gotta wait 1year for this return value on 1st rd. And the 5th rd guy like an upper 60s grade player. So yes, I believe they should have gotten a 3rd vs the 5th. Offer a contingent on next season giving up a 3rd or 5th depending on top 14 or below 14th.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Guys that still fit the Packers' scheme that could be 2nd round picks:

 

1. Lorenzo Carter - OLB - Georgia. Fast, which is what the team is looking for.

2. Josh Sweat - OLB - Florida State. Again, fast. You aren't going to see this team invest in slow, undersized pass rushers anymore.

3. Courtland Sutton - WR - SMU. Everything the team is looking for in an outside receiver. Great size, hands, body control and leaping ability. Not a burner, but a 4.54 is plenty good when you are 6'4", 220.

4. D.J. Chark - WR - LSU. Speed, speed and more speed.

5. Equanimeous St. Brown - WR - Notre Dame. Great size/speed prospect that was hurt by poor QB play last year.

6. Brian O'Neill - OT - Pittsburgh. Very athletic tackle, if a tad on the light side.

7. Connor Williams - T/G - Texas. Another athletic guy, but may not have the size to play tackle. Could probably slide in at guard and start for a decade, though.

8. Braden Smith - G - Auburn. Tackle size and decent athleticism, so team may want to try him there first. Very NFL-ready

9. Jessie Bates - CB/S - Wake Forest. Size/speed DB who is jumping up draft boards. Great fit for Pettine's scheme.

10. Josh Jackson - CB - Iowa. Not great measurables, but a great player. Would they go 1-2 with CBs again?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, some interesting guys available for tomorrow. Here are some of my favorites:

 

Will Hernandez, James Daniel and Austin Corbett - interior offensive linemen - really good players, good value - can start right away.

Harold Landry - OLB - Would be great value - and really fill a need.

Dallas Goedert - TE - Probably don't need, but I like the guy and think he'll be good.

Justin Reid - S - Good, smart player who could come in and contribute right away.

Josh Jackson - CB - Not that much of a need anymore, but would be great value at the pick.

Christian Kirk - WR - I don't know that the much about the wideouts - but I like Kirk. However, he's more of a slot guy. But there are several highly ranked ones still there.

 

I'm sure there are other guys -- I've just named some that I've taken note of.

 

- Daniels and Corbett are good fits for the Packers zone scheme. Hernandez is a load, but he probably isn't athletic enough.

- I've said my piece on Landry. I think he'll be a bust.

- Goedert is the most complete TE in the draft, but teams seem to be shying away from blocking-type TEs lately. He would certainly help the running game, but I just don't know if he would be enough of a receiving threat to warrant a 2nd round selection.

- Reid is a solid player that could slide in at safety, slot corner or even the perimeter in a pinch. I wouldn't mind this move at all.

- Jackson would be incredible value in the 2nd

- Kirk is a pure slot guy. Valuable yes, but really not a need for the Packers. I think if they go WR, it's going to be an outside size and/or speed guy.

[adambr2]

Ugly. Terrible

 

Trade down 13spots for a 5th only? The 1st next season could be in the mid-20s where you just moved back to. A season where you will likely also pick mid 20. Should jave gotten a 3rd this year vs the 5th

 

If you were an NFL GM, you would rather have one (late) 3rd round pick in the current year than a 5th in the current year and a guaranteed 1st round pick of unknown position next year? Really?

 

Unless I'm reading that wrong and you mean we should have gotten a 1st next year + a 3rd this year, in which case I would disagree. Saints already gave up way too much.

 

12picks this year. 1 was top 15. The move down to 27 for a 1st rd next year, as stated will likely be after 15. As well as ours outside top 15. Now they moved back up and got (supposedly) the player they were going to draft at 14. But this move on its own, I dont like parting away from a top 15 to pick 25+ and a ? For 1st next season. Big gamble. Prior to trading back up, youre talking (hypothetically) a chance for a 90+ grade player. Impact. For 1 80s grade player and most likely 80s grade next season. Meanwhile with 12picks now 45 and beyond youre talking below 80grade filling out your team. Gotta wait 1year for this return value on 1st rd. And the 5th rd guy like an upper 60s grade player. So yes, I believe they should have gotten a 3rd vs the 5th. Offer a contingent on next season giving up a 3rd or 5th depending on top 14 or below 14th.

 

IMO you're discounting the value of next year's 1st wayyy too much. Going strictly by the draft value chart, which isn't gospel but is a pretty good guide, the drop from 14th to 27th is a drop of about 420 points, or roughly the value of a mid 2nd round pick. The Saints could win the Super Bowl next year and we still come out far ahead in value.

 

Yes, it sucks for us to have to wait a year, but we'll be thrilled about it this time next year. Unless you're going from a very deep draft to a very shallow draft, 1st round value is still 1st round value regardless of the year.

 

You're also making a big assumption that the Saints will pick in the 20s. Yes they were solid in 2017 but they finished 7-9 every year in the 3 years before that. They play in a very tough division and could easily wind up 3rd in the division and miss the playoffs depending on the bounces they get in 2018. They'd also be a Drew Brees injury away from a top 10 pick.

[JosephC]

I like Drew Brees, but I wouldn't be crying if he was injured in training camp next year and missed the season. Nothing that would be permanently debilitating of course, just something that would keep him on the shelf for 6 months and then after that he'd be as good as new.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Brees turns 40 during next season's playoffs, so any injury at all could be the one that makes him say enough is enough.

 

It's also an assumption that the Saints are good again. They were 7-9 three straight seasons as adambr2 just pointed out.

 

Brees doesn't even have to get a major injury. At his age a sore back could doom the Saints to 6 wins. It's also the NFL where teams quite often just surprisingly regress. I don't think it's a stretch that becomes a top 20 pick, and if Brees misses time for some reason it can easily be top 10.

 

Even if the Saints win the Super Bowl it puts the Packers in a great position for a run at twilight of Rodgers' time.

[homer]

The thing about the two firsts next year is that they can be packaged to get that 90 grade player during that draft.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If my memory serves me the last time GB had two first rounders they took Raji and Matthews, and Matthews was at the end of Rd 1, 26th or something.

 

That's the kind of potential you're looking at. In their second year both players led the defense to a title.

[JosephC]

Revised Round 2-7 prediction after the trades that occurred in round one. Note that even with the movement, there are only two different names from what I had posted in the "preview and predictions" thread. Now out is 3-76 Tavarius Moore/S/Southern Mississippi and Dorance Armstrong Jr/OLB/Kansas.

 

2-45 = D.J. Chark/WR/Louisiana State

Almost flipped it Stanford S-Justin Reid but will stick with Chark. Jaire Alexander is a fast guy and I think Gutekunst sticks with speed throughout this draft. Only pass-rusher that seems worth this pick is Georgia's Lorenzo Carter, and his motor seems to run to hot-and-cold so I think the Packers will pass. Best OL'men get cleared out early in the round, but players like Oregon's Tyrell Crosby, Nevada's Austin Corbett, Texas Christian's Joseph Notebloom and Louisville's Geron Christian are all strong possibilities. Tight ends like South Dakota State's Dallas Goedert and Penn State's Mike Gesicki could be in play. I think one of those tight ends will probably be off the board but not both. I just don't see TE being as big of a need after the Graham signing, but some prominent Packer writers see it differently (Tom Silverstein). Best guess is a WR, S or offensive lineman will be the pick.

 

4-101 = Cole Madison/OT/Washington State

The Packers currently have 6 of the next 74 picks when it gets to this point of the draft. I'd actually be a bit surprised if they don't trade back up into round three. If that happens, I'll go with the guy I projected to them in round three before the draft started, Southern Mississsippi safety Tavarius Moore.

 

4-133 = Godwin Igwebuike/S/Northwestern

5-138 = Genard Avery/ILB/Memphis

5-147 = Ade Aruna/OLB/Tulane

5-172 = Alex Cappa/OT/Humboldt State

5-174 = Avonte Maddox/CB/Pittsburgh

6-207 = Jordan Thomas/TE/Mississippi State

7-232 = Jester Weah/WR/Pittsburgh

7-239 = Jamiyus Pittman/DT/Central Florida

7-248 = Cole Reyes/S/North Dakota

[xisxisxis]

I don't know much about slot values, but what would it take for the packers to move into the middle to end of the 3rd round given their current picks?

[homer]

I don't know much about slot values, but what would it take for the packers to move into the middle to end of the 3rd round given their current picks?

 

 

Here's a link to a draft value calculator:

https://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

 

Per this they'd have to trade Pick 101 (1st pick in the 4th), 133 (4th round compensatory), 147 (5th round from Saints), and 172 (5th round compensatory) to get the 80th pick (which is the 20th pick in the 3rd I think). I think they would include a future year pick or two instead of all four from this year.

[adambr2]

I don't know much about slot values, but what would it take for the packers to move into the middle to end of the 3rd round given their current picks?

 

 

Here's a link to a draft value calculator:

https://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

 

Per this they'd have to trade Pick 101 (1st pick in the 4th), 133 (4th round compensatory), 147 (5th round from Saints), and 172 (5th round compensatory) to get the 80th pick (which is the 20th pick in the 3rd I think). I think they would include a future year pick or two instead of all four from this year.

 

Going off the value chart from walterfootball I can't imagine it would cost them that much for that modest of a move up that late in the draft. I think a move up 5-10 spots info the 3rd from the 1st pick in the 4th costs them that pick of course plus one of their 5ths, and a move up closer to the mid 3rd costs them closer to both 4ths. IMO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know much about slot values, but what would it take for the packers to move into the middle to end of the 3rd round given their current picks?

 

 

Here's a link to a draft value calculator:

https://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

 

Per this they'd have to trade Pick 101 (1st pick in the 4th), 133 (4th round compensatory), 147 (5th round from Saints), and 172 (5th round compensatory) to get the 80th pick (which is the 20th pick in the 3rd I think). I think they would include a future year pick or two instead of all four from this year.

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see them deal a player for a pick or to move up, either. Guys like Cobb, Montgomery, Hundley, Rollins, Ryan and even Ha-Ha could potentially be on the block. Granted some of those guys don't hold much value, but could be inserted as a pot sweetener. Hundley was a whisker away from being traded to the Titans for a 5th last month, until they backed out at the last minute, so there are still teams that value him.

[homer]

Walter Football draft chart has the 80th pick as 190 value.

 

101 = 96

133 = 39.5

147 = 32.6

172 = 22.6

 

190.7

[brewcrewdue80]

Brees turns 40 during next season's playoffs, so any injury at all could be the one that makes him say enough is enough.

 

It's also an assumption that the Saints are good again. They were 7-9 three straight seasons as adambr2 just pointed out.

 

Brees doesn't even have to get a major injury. At his age a sore back could doom the Saints to 6 wins. It's also the NFL where teams quite often just surprisingly regress. I don't think it's a stretch that becomes a top 20 pick, and if Brees misses time for some reason it can easily be top 10.

 

Even if the Saints win the Super Bowl it puts the Packers in a great position for a run at twilight of Rodgers' time.

 

At the same time this post attempts to put light on the trade, it shows the negative to me in the trade. Rodgers is a year older, obviously collar bone fragile. His window is shorter and shorter too. Adding the guessed 90grade talent may be a year too late. And thats hopeful the return pick is top 15. This isnt TT's draft. We dont need to pile in 7+ picks next season when we have 12 this year. We reduced our draft dropping 4, and replacing a 3rd with a 5th. It's tiresome running out there a dozen late 4th rd-undrafted FAs to compete within the division drafting top 20s so often. Need top 60guys now, not next season.

[Jaylyn]

Just my First Round take:

Biggest winner: Bills, loved what they did.

Other Winners: Giants, Broncos, Colts, Bears, Dolphins, Lions, Falcons

Biggest loser: I did not believe the Browns could mess that up, but they did. They are spinning that Mayfield

will be the next Favre and Ward over Chubb at 4?

Other losers: Cardinals, Saints, Packers, (sorry!), Seahawks, Vikings.

Split: Patriots and Ravens, liked both of their first picks, not the second ones.

 

I can understand the reasoning behind every pick except those of the Seahawks, Saints, and of course the Browns. Not a Browns fan, but my goodness. Still trying to wrap my mind around the thought process there.

[adambr2]

Walter Football draft chart has the 80th pick as 190 value.

 

101 = 96

133 = 39.5

147 = 32.6

172 = 22.6

 

190.7

 

Yeah you're right, I was looking at it wrong. Can't believe it's that much. Don't see us moving back up into the 3rd unless it's just a few spots.

[Jaylyn]

Brees turns 40 during next season's playoffs, so any injury at all could be the one that makes him say enough is enough.

 

It's also an assumption that the Saints are good again. They were 7-9 three straight seasons as adambr2 just pointed out.

 

Brees doesn't even have to get a major injury. At his age a sore back could doom the Saints to 6 wins. It's also the NFL where teams quite often just surprisingly regress. I don't think it's a stretch that becomes a top 20 pick, and if Brees misses time for some reason it can easily be top 10.

 

Even if the Saints win the Super Bowl it puts the Packers in a great position for a run at twilight of Rodgers' time.

 

At the same time this post attempts to put light on the trade, it shows the negative to me in the trade. Rodgers is a year older, obviously collar bone fragile. His window is shorter and shorter too. Adding the guessed 90grade talent may be a year too late. And thats hopeful the return pick is top 15. This isnt TT's draft. We dont need to pile in 7+ picks next season when we have 12 this year. We reduced our draft dropping 4, and replacing a 3rd with a 5th. It's tiresome running out there a dozen late 4th rd-undrafted FAs to compete within the division drafting top 20s so often. Need top 60guys now, not next season.

Exactly, they should have stayed put and had their pick of Edmunds or James. IMO neither will disappoint, not so sure about Alexander. I understand the need for CB, but Jackson and Oliver are still there, trade up in the 2nd for one of them. They will both be better pros then Alexander will be.

[adambr2]

Brees turns 40 during next season's playoffs, so any injury at all could be the one that makes him say enough is enough.

 

It's also an assumption that the Saints are good again. They were 7-9 three straight seasons as adambr2 just pointed out.

 

Brees doesn't even have to get a major injury. At his age a sore back could doom the Saints to 6 wins. It's also the NFL where teams quite often just surprisingly regress. I don't think it's a stretch that becomes a top 20 pick, and if Brees misses time for some reason it can easily be top 10.

 

Even if the Saints win the Super Bowl it puts the Packers in a great position for a run at twilight of Rodgers' time.

 

At the same time this post attempts to put light on the trade, it shows the negative to me in the trade. Rodgers is a year older, obviously collar bone fragile. His window is shorter and shorter too. Adding the guessed 90grade talent may be a year too late. And thats hopeful the return pick is top 15. This isnt TT's draft. We dont need to pile in 7+ picks next season when we have 12 this year. We reduced our draft dropping 4, and replacing a 3rd with a 5th. It's tiresome running out there a dozen late 4th rd-undrafted FAs to compete within the division drafting top 20s so often. Need top 60guys now, not next season.

 

Rodgers is nearly a full 5 years younger than Brees, so there's not the same urgency. There's no need to go all in on 2018. Top 60 guys would help now and they'll still help in 2019. The '19 draft class is going to be completely loaded with pass rushers which was probably a consideration in taking the trade too.