2018 Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

[Greenleaf1]

This is going to be an ongoing issue for the Brewers over the next several years. Stearns is going to have to be very smart in how he manages the 40-man roster, making sure there's enough space to protect as many prospects as possible but not loading it up so much with younger guys that we don't have the proper Major League depth. It didn't end up being so hard last year, but here's a list of first time eligible prospects of note who would have to be placed on the 40-man roster this fall or would be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft (Essentially players who were signed/drafted in 2015 if over 18 and 2014 if 18 and under):

 

I did an initial ranking in terms of who I think is most important to protect, and a line where I would cut off who to protect.

 

1. RHP Luis Ortiz (AA)

2. RHP Cody Ponce (AA)

3. LHP Kodi Medeiros (AA)

4. OF Troy Stokes Jr. (AA)

5. 1B/3B/OF Jake Gatewood (AA)

6. RHP Trey Supak (A+)

----------------------------------------------

7. LHP Nathan Kirby (A+)

8. RHP Bubba Derby (AAA)

9. RHP Carlos Herrera (A)

10. SS/3B Gilbert Lara (A)

11. RHP Jon Perrin (?)

12. RHP Josh Pennington (?)

13. RHP Phil Bickford (?)

14. RHP Nate Griep (AA)

15. LHP Quintin Torres-Costa (AA)

16. RHP Conor Harber (A+)

 

 

As you can see, it's a very long list. Some of this is going to work itself out this year, but I don't see a case where they don't want to protect the top 6 on that list (unless they get traded).

 

I have a few other sub-topics to this I want to discuss:

1. Who off this list is likely to be floated at the trade deadline?

2. Which players could play themselves on/off the protected list with a good/bad year?

3. What is the current state of the 40-man roster, and how many spots are there that could be easily vacated?

4. How many players not yet eligible by the end of the season will still most likely take up a spot by the end of the season (think Corbin Burnes).

 

I'll split those thoughts up into separate posts though.

[And That]

Here's the complete list of 1st-time Rule 5 eligible players after the season (as far as I'm aware):

 

Blake Allemand

Phil Bickford

Jose Cuas

Bubba Derby

Jake Drossner

Jay Feliciano

Jake Gatewood

Mitch Ghelfi

Nate Griep

Conor Harber

Carlos Herrera

Nate Kirby

Brad Kuntz

Gilbert Lara

Max McDowell

Kodi Medeiros

Jon Olczak

Luis Ortiz

Drake Owenby

Josh Pennington

Moises Perez

Jon Perrin

Michael Petersen

Cody Ponce

Wuilder Rodriguez

Troy Stokes Jr.

Trey Supak

Quintin Torres-Costa

Christian Trent

 

Pass overs from last December:

Luis Aviles

Jesus Brea

Joaquin De La Cruz

Nattino Diplan

Nelson Hernandez

Alec Kenilvort

Carlos Leal

Carlos Luna

Franly Mallen

Julio Mendez

Dylan Moore

Tucker Neuhaus

Nic Pierre

Joantgel Segovia

Devin Williams

[Greenleaf1]

Edited my list to add in Herrera since you said he's eligible.

[pacopete4]

Bubba Derby is gonna be hard not to protect if he keeps pitching well at AAA.

[Greenleaf1]

Likely trade candidates:

 

Obviously, we have a glut of outfielders at the moment. That's not likely to last through to next year with Broxton running out of options and Perez likely getting the squeeze put on him, but that still leaves us with Braun/Yelich/Cain/Santana/Phillips through at least 2021 (minus Braun if we don't pick up his option).

 

That would seemingly leave Stokes on the outside looking in, particularly if Corey Ray's sudden resurgence holds for the rest of the year. Either one of them might look like a good trade piece this summer if they keep raking like they both have been.

 

Gatewood also seems like a potential trade piece due to our pretty solid 1B depth right now, plus Shaw will be at 3rd for a good while yet and Erceg could be ready by next year already too. He's not off to a great start but he probably still has good value in a trade to pick up a solid bench bat or reliever.

 

I'd be surprised if guys still at high or low A that need to be roster protected have much trade value unless they're studs, so I'd be surprised if we were going to move any of those guys.

 

None of the pitchers seem particularly off limits in trade discussions but I'd be surprised to see us trade Ortiz unless it's in a package for a stud ace-type pitcher. Medeiros is getting glowing reviews this spring and his numbers look pretty good to start the year. Ponce seems like he's kinda settling into that potential back of rotation type arm role.

 

There should be some good variety to dangle at the trade deadline to pick up a few pieces if we need to, which would help alleviate the logjam on our 40-man roster moving forward.

[Greenleaf1]

The list and the line where I stopped adding players are pretty dependent on past performance, but there are a couple guys this year that have made an early impact that could make these decisions a lot harder.

 

Kodi Medeiros got a LOT of praise this Spring and seems like he may have finally taken a step forward with his command. If that's the case, he will definitely need to be protected (if we protected Diplan at a lower level and he hadn't made improvements yet to his command, then Medeiros seems like a lock).

 

Gilbert Lara seems to have made some real improvements to his approach thus far too, and seems to be walking more and driving the ball a LOT more early on this season. If he can sustain these improvements and maybe show enough promise to move up to High A this summer and not look completely lost, then it's going to be a tough decision to figure out what to do with him.

 

Nathan Kirby needs to have a year like Williams had last year: stay healthy, work up your pitch count, look even somewhat like your former self, and they'll probably have to find a way to protect him.

 

Derby seems like one of those guys that if he's going to be protected, he'll be added to the 40-man in September and they'll see what he's got this season (like Wilkerson last year). If he can show some promise, then maybe he gets to keep that spot through the offseason, but I guess I don't see him getting a spot if he doesn't get called up in 2018.

 

Perrin/Pennington/Bickford are just giant question marks for me since none of them have played yet this season. I guess it'd be a bit surprising if none of these 3 needed to be protected, as I would be surprised if all 3 had disappointing seasons, but we'll have to wait and see. I'll give the edge to Perrin since he's already had success at AA.

[Greenleaf1]

In looking at the current 40-man roster, these are the players that will be FAs at the end of 2018:

 

- Eric Sogard

- Boone Logan ($625K buyout on option)

 

There are a lot of current players who could end up getting DFA'd before becoming free agents but I'll leave those alone for now. We'll see how Logan does this year but Jennings has another year and looks pretty good so far so we'll see how that impacts Logan.

 

Other guys that could be easily DFA'd to make room:

- RHP Alec Asher

- RHP Oliver Drake

- RHP Aaron Wilkerson

- C Jett Bandy

- 1B Ji-Man Choi or Jesus Aguilar (can't imagine they're both on the 40-man to start 2019)

- UTIL Hernan Perez (would be strange to see him make it another year)

- OF Keon Broxton (he'll either be forced out with no options next year or someone else will be traded to make room for him. Either way, there should be a space open)

 

Even conservatively here, that leaves 8 or 9 spots open next year to play around with. So even though we have a lot of names to protect this offseason, maybe it won't be as hard as I might've thought to find the room for them.

[Greenleaf1]

Last bit of thinking on this topic for now: Which players not listed in my first post might play their way onto the roster yet this season, creating further 40-man congestion?

 

Corbin Burnes seems like a near lock for a roster spot by midseason, but a lot of our upper minors guys with much shot to help the Brewers this year are already on the 40-man roster.

 

Christian Bethancourt is a possibility. Once Pina/Vogt are back, Bandy will probably be DFA'd and Nottingham sent back down. If a major injury were to happen to Pina or Vogt and Nottingham is struggling, Bethancourt could get a shot to see if he can stick.

 

As I said before, I think Bubba Derby gets a shot in September (or earlier if a need arises), and despite his success as a starter at CS, I think his only shot to help the big league team is in the bullpen. He could be serviceable in the Drake role of eating up innings in lost games, and maybe pitch his way into higher leverage situations.

 

I thought Tristan Archer had a shot last year but was a little surprised he didn't spend any time in big league camp this spring (at least not that I noticed), so maybe they aren't that high on him.

[Greenleaf1]

Since I'm clearly bored enough to be writing all this out, I might as well do a way too early prediction of what our 40-man roster looks like going into the Rule 5 Draft this fall (I'll say I think the roster will be full, I don't see us drafting anyone):

 

PITCHERS

1. JIMMY NELSON

2. CHASE ANDERSON

3. ZACH DAVIES

4. BRANDON WOODRUFF

5. JUNIOR GUERRA

6. CORBIN BURNES

7. FREDDY PERALTA

8. COREY KNEBEL

9. JOSH HADER

10. MATT ALBERS

11. JACOB BARNES

12. JEREMY JEFFRESS

13. DAN JENNINGS

14. TAYLOR WILLIAMS

15. ADRIAN HOUSER

16. JORGE LOPEZ

17. BRENT SUTER

18. JHOULYS CHACIN

 

CATCHERS

19. MANNY PINA

20. JACOB NOTTINGHAM

21. CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT

 

INFIELD

22. ERIC THAMES

23. JESUS AGUILAR

24. JONATHAN VILLAR

25. MAURICIO DUBON

26. ORLANDO ARCIA

27. TRAVIS SHAW

28. HERNAN PEREZ

 

OUTFIELD

29. CHRISTIAN YELICH

30. RYAN BRAUN

31. LORENZO CAIN

32. DOMINGO SANTANA

33. KEON BROXTON

34. BRETT PHILLIPS

 

ADDED JUST BEFORE DRAFT

35. LUIS ORTIZ

36. CODY PONCE

37. KODI MEDEIROS

38. TROY STOKES JR

39. JAKE GATEWOOD

40. TREY SUPAK

 

 

There's probably still a fair amount of wiggle room here (Hard to believe all 6 of those outfielders are still here on August 1st, for example, but it's hard to believe they're all here now too so who knows), but this would at least be a roster that allows me to protect all the players I had above the line right now.

 

Obviously there's a LOT of baseball left to play this year, and some of these things just work themselves out on their own. Luckily, Stearns has time to figure this out.

[adambr2]

This is exactly why I wish people would step back and look at some of the underlying motives when they see some of their favorite prospects traded for young MLB talent. Myself included.

 

There is a glutton of upcoming protectable minor league talent. The top 3 are must protects, and the next 3 are going to fall into that category with even a decent year. Everyone else from 7-13 is going to be tough to leave unprotected with a big year.

 

They either package some of it for upgrades now like they did with Yelich or risk losing these guys next winter, or make room for them. So more moves will probably be forthcoming.

 

It would look even more daunting if we hadn't already traded Harrison and Diaz, both of which are pretty much burned spots on the 40 for now because neither one will be MLB ready by winter.

[Brewer Fever]

I've been saying this for months now. It's why I wasn't worried that they didn't sign Cobb or Arrieta. They pretty much have to make a big multiplayer trade between now and December. And I'm sure they're targeting starting pitching.

[markedman5]

Ok so if a guy isnt protected the only way we lose him is if another team keeps him on the 25 man roster all year? How does the minor league portion of this draft work exactly? Could we lose unprotected guys to another teams minor league system?

 

I guess I just don't see a guy like Gatewood being on somebody's 25 man next season so why protect him?

[Greenleaf1]

In the Major League part of the draft, a team must keep the player on the Major League roster all year, or if the player is injured and spends time on the DL, they have to spend at least 90 days on the active roster (which, if they're on the DL for long enough, could extend into the next year).

 

Plenty of non-competing teams will draft prospects, stash them on their active rosters for 90 days, then find a way to call them injured and send them down for the rest of the year on long "rehab" assignments (we did it with Wei-Chung Wang, I think the Padres did something similar with Miguel Diaz).

 

The minor league portion is more lax on both ends. There are minor league rosters that players must be placed on to be protected, and you can protect players at the AAA/AA level and so on down. So basically only prospects you've barely heard of are unprotected in the minor league portions of the draft with very few exceptions, and it's not really worth worrying that much about, since we won't lose anybody in that part of the draft that is really worth caring much about.

 

I'd say once a rule 5 draft pick makes it through spring and actually gets on a team's active roster, the chances of that player being returned to the original team go down substantially. Although we have had players like Colin Walsh make the team only to fail pretty miserably and be sent back later.

 

Long story short, it's possible that a player like Gatewood might not get drafted, but top 30 prospects would probably get drafted more often than not in the Rule 5 Draft.

[Jenkins5]

Medorois, Ponce, Ortiz, Q. Torres-Costa are most pressing. I feel it is easier for a pitcher to stick.

 

Gatewood’s bat right now is still too far off to stick Imo. He will almost certainly be returned. If you are going to take chance on bat, needs to be at least a high opb to offer team something.

 

To me Stokes or Taylor get spot for OF & Taylor defensively can play all three very well. Stokes is a LF. I could see team snagging him though. If Supek gets to to AA & excels.... hard not to put on

[adambr2]

I'm guessing the top 4 on your list would be pretty much locks to be taken if left unprotected. (Ortiz, Ponce, Medeiros, Stokes). All 4 have enough upside to be interesting, while also being in AA or higher so all could be reasonably expected to contribute on an MLB team.

 

Gatewood, I don't know. He's interesting enough, but hasn't really turned a corner and could fall into Clint Coulter territory.

 

Supak I would guess has a decent chance of being overlooked. He doesn't have the kind of electric arm that would make him a lottery ticket for anyone, nor has he pitched at high levels. You never know for sure though that a rebuilding team won't like him enough to hide on their bench for a year, and that goes for any of Pennington, Bickford, Lara, and Kirby.

 

Bubba Derby is another interesting one. Kind of falls into that Aaron Wilkerson category of not being a great arm, but being a productive arm. And we obviously thought enough of Wilkerson to find room on the 40 for him.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

There are a few names not on your eligible list. Tyrone Taylor, Missaki, Coulter, Orf, Wren. Of that I would think Taylor would at least be in the top 16 players you are considering. If he continues, he may need to be protected. Missaki would be a long shot but if he had a good year, he could be considered. I had high hopes for Coulter but at this point, he looks like a bust.

[Mass Haas]

There are a few names not on your eligible list. Tyrone Taylor, Missaki, Coulter, Orf, Wren.

 

Actually, Tyrone Taylor (and the less impressive Clint Coulter) are minor league free agent eligible at the end of 2018. Yes, they have both been in the system for seven seasons. It seems like Kyle Wren would be too, but this is only his 6th pro season.

 

So if Tyrone Taylor keeps up anything near his early pace, he would need to be protected from testing what would be a very eager market.

[And That]

There are a few names not on your eligible list.

That's correct. Here are the non-free agent Rule 5 eligible players who became eligible before December of last year, i.e. have been passed over for protection twice:

 

Tristan Archer

Rodrigo Benoit

Johnny Davis

Yosmer Leal

Daniel Missaki

Nate Orf

Wendell Rijo

Tyler Spurlin

Josh Uhen

Kyle Wren

 

All of those players currently are scheduled to become FA after the 2019 season.

 

The Brewers currently have 33 players scheduled to become minor league free agents after the season, and as Jim mentioned that list includes Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Torres-Costa would need to be protected for sure. Gatewood probably not. Very hard for even a tanking team to carry a marginal prospect as a position player. There's a ton of arms in the mix, and as stated earlier that will work itself out to some degree.

 

Lara is interesting. If they exposed him and he turned out to be even a decent MLB player that would hurt after all the money and development time put into him.

[Greenleaf1]

I left all the players off my list that had already been Rule 5 eligible in the past, because at this point none of them have shown enough this year to indicate that they'd be any more likely to be selected at the end of this year when they weren't last year.

 

The one exception could potentially be Tyrone Taylor now that he's made it up to AAA and seems to be doing well enough. It's a crowded outfield and I'm not sure what it would take for him to really get a shot, so I'm inclined to say protecting him on the 40-man doesn't seem like the best use of resources, but maybe if the congestion is cleared up with some midseason trades, he might prove worth protecting after this season.

 

I think anybody below AA at the end of the year probably doesn't get protected. They didn't protect Miguel Diaz even though he ended up being so coveted that he went with the very first pick of the draft and we lost him. With so many interesting prospects in the upper minors, I wonder if this will be the first year where we just have to start getting used to losing some talent in the Rule 5 Draft.

[Greenleaf1]

Torres-Costa would need to be protected for sure. Gatewood probably not. Very hard for even a tanking team to carry a marginal prospect as a position player. There's a ton of arms in the mix, and as stated earlier that will work itself out to some degree.

 

Lara is interesting. If they exposed him and he turned out to be even a decent MLB player that would hurt after all the money and development time put into him.

 

We've got a lot of quality lefties in the Majors or on the DL right now, all of whom will be back next year. Not sure QTC is a sure thing.

 

I agree that Gatewood is very borderline right now though, and a roster spot is likely going to be determined if he has a great year this year or not.

[Jenkins5]

I think where Lara is in his development.... he doesn’t stand a chance to make a team unless they are that willing to both play 24 man roster all season & steal a critcal year of development from a kid who needs it. Again if you take a chance on a young bat at low level you need to at least target a guy with at least one superior trait. Defensive, contact, obp, and speed are not plus tools & power still has not became plus yet. A Grisham type kid who gets on base like crazy with walks despite average is much more appeal at this stage than an all around raw project still coming together