Jhoulys Chacin

[Boomer5]

When they signed him they knew Nelson was hurt and they didn’t fill in the rest of the rotation so I’m not sure how he wasn’t signed as our number 3?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Because they didn't sign a guy to be our #3 on a 2-year contract when Jimmy Nelson could be back pitching in June. He wasn't signed to replace Jimmy Nelson.

[TJseven7]

He’s a bad pitcher away from Petco

Bunk. He has a career 4.19 ERA outside of Petco, including a career 4.23 ERA pitching at Coors Field.

 

He's been a better pitcher (using ERA) at Comerica Park, Nationals Park, and AT&T Park. He has a sub-4.00 ERA in 12 different parks.

 

6.53 ERA last year away from Petco with a 851 OPS.

 

He is absolutely a bad pitcher away from Petco. Btw, Miller park is away from Petco.

 

118.2 innings at petco. Great era. 2.28

918 innings elsewhere. 4.186 era.

 

That's a stabilizing #4. By MLB standards last year that makes him a middle of the pack #3.

 

Go on.

 

Ps: 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.7 4.7 with a 3.65 pen is 3.9 era.

Anderson Nelson Davies Chacin Kid.

4.2 is exactly what you need at #4 if you want to get down in the 3.8 era range team wide.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

118.2 innings at petco. Great era. 2.28

918 innings elsewhere. 4.186 era.

 

That's a stabilizing #4. By MLB standards last year that makes him a middle of the pack #3.

 

Go on.

 

NO!!! The focus is on 2017 numbers. Everything before that doesn't exist!!!

[MrTPlush]

Because they didn't sign a guy to be our #3 on a 2-year contract when Jimmy Nelson could be back pitching in June. He wasn't signed to replace Jimmy Nelson.

 

You are being a bit to technical with where he sets up in the rotation. They hoped he would be a #3 level starter. Whether at #3 or #4 when Nelson returns. They also said they would go into offseason planning on getting nothing from Nelson this year(probably a wise idea). They signed him while also thinking they could tweak something to make him even better. For a guy who was #3-like last year and at many times in his career I don’t find that hard to believe.

[Boomer5]

 

118.2 innings at petco. Great era. 2.28

918 innings elsewhere. 4.186 era.

 

That's a stabilizing #4. By MLB standards last year that makes him a middle of the pack #3.

 

Go on.

 

NO!!! The focus is on 2017 numbers. Everything before that doesn't exist!!!

 

Since his last year that mattered before 2017 was 2013, then yes you ignore them.

[MrTPlush]

 

118.2 innings at petco. Great era. 2.28

918 innings elsewhere. 4.186 era.

 

That's a stabilizing #4. By MLB standards last year that makes him a middle of the pack #3.

 

Go on.

 

NO!!! The focus is on 2017 numbers. Everything before that doesn't exist!!!

 

Since his last year that mattered before 2017 was 2013, then yes you ignore them.

 

So you are telling me Chase Anderson is Clayton Kershaw....?

[pacopete4]

Boomer5, I get you don't like Chacin and that is perfectly fine, but you are arguing just to argue when someone shows you statistical evidence as to why Chacin was signed to be a back-end rotation piece. Getting silly.

[TJseven7]

"So you are telling me Chase Anderson is Clayton Kershaw...."

 

No. But if Chase was hurt in 2015 and 2016 instead of being solid... then yes.

 

Basically, he's convinced Chacin is toast and Petco breathed life into him.

[tmwiese55]

The line about .500 until June is a good one to me. There's really not that many teams in the NL really with a shot in LAD, WAS, CHC, STL, MKE, AZ, Mets. Then your maybes like ATL and Col. so really 7-9 teams going for 5 spots. If you stay above .500 by then, you'll then get back Nelson and maybe get Burnes up. Knebel back, etc. Then other teams will fall off and you're right there at the end. We have a strong farm to make a move if it presents itself. The key to me is the offense, they added two great bats (granted one has been out) but the results have been the same. They have to be noticeably better than last year to make up for a regression from the starters which seems inevitable. BP looks great though, what a pleasant surprise. And think our whole pen probably costs less than Holland.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Because they didn't sign a guy to be our #3 on a 2-year contract when Jimmy Nelson could be back pitching in June. He wasn't signed to replace Jimmy Nelson.

 

You are being a bit to technical with where he sets up in the rotation. They hoped he would be a #3 level starter. Whether at #3 or #4 when Nelson returns. They also said they would go into offseason planning on getting nothing from Nelson this year(probably a wise idea). They signed him while also thinking they could tweak something to make him even better. For a guy who was #3-like last year and at many times in his career I don’t find that hard to believe.

 

Uh, actually I think the opposite is true. Those bashing him right now (and I don't like him) are being entirely too technical with where he pitches because it doesn't actually matter.

 

They signed him to replicate what he's been his entire career. If he does that (he hasn't after 3 starts) and it's the 3rd best SP, that's the Brewers fault, not his.

[3and2Fastball]

I would agree that the Brewers future hopes is with their pitching. I've been impressed with what I've seen of Burnes, T Williams, & Houser. Haven't seen Peralta but heard great things.

 

Chacin is really just a bridge to when those guys are all ready...

[TJseven7]

Well 122 AB have come from guys who aren't under performing... vs 260 that are. Only 44 are really overperforming since I dont count Villars 314/314 slash with no slg as over performing and even shaws 302/333/822 isn't amazing for him.

 

Offense plus has been Yelich Aguilar and Hader Choi.

 

249/322/751 last year

238/296/661 this year

 

I wouldn't call cain or yelich the problem either at

283/320/755

385/407/984

 

Braun Arcia Pina and a bit of Thames Santana on the other hand....

[And That]

Brewers didn’t sign him to be a #5. They expected him to be closer to a #3. So him being a #5 is kind of a problem.

I doubt the Brewers have any internal definition of "a #3" or "a #5" pitcher. They signed Chacin to be... Chacin.

[pacopete4]

Brewers didn’t sign him to be a #5. They expected him to be closer to a #3. So him being a #5 is kind of a problem.

I doubt the Brewers have any internal definition of "a #3" or "a #5" pitcher. They signed Chacin to be... Chacin.

Yeah, we seem to always want to label pitchers as a number in a rotation (and that is fine) but it clouds us sometimes.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers didn’t sign him to be a #5. They expected him to be closer to a #3. So him being a #5 is kind of a problem.

I doubt the Brewers have any internal definition of "a #3" or "a #5" pitcher. They signed Chacin to be... Chacin.

 

Yes, and I bet that there is some kind of expected production level, right? I am referring to that expected production level to be in line closer to what one considers a #3...not a #5. Not saying that is how the Brewers are defining him.

[And That]

Since his last year that mattered before 2017 was 2013, then yes you ignore them.

In order to ignore older data you'd have to prove the stuff has changed. Chacin has never been a hard thrower, and he's always been pretty a sinker/slider guy. But if you want to try to prove it, go for it. I'll wait.

 

Ignore history at your own peril.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rotation order is completely arbitrary after the first 4-5 games of the season, and won't matter again until the NLDS. It's arguable that it even matters at all at the beginning of the season. The only thing that matters now is that Chacin is one of the team's five best starters. If he is, he'll stay there. If he isn't, he'll be kicked to the bullpen. His ++ slider would actually make him a solid pen candidate if better options are available in the rotation.

[tmwiese55]

And I feel like those number in rotation designations are a bit outdated in sticking to old norms of 15 years ago instead of the modern method of starting pitching. So few guys go past 6 innings regularly and get to 200 innings. So if you actually went through whole teams and the league and did the counting on starting pitching rankings you'd be surprised on a lot of things.

[And That]

He has a sub-4.00 ERA in 12 different parks.

 

He is absolutely a bad pitcher away from Petco. Btw, Miller park is away from Petco.

The sky is purple. Do you know how I know the sky is purple? The sky is not orange.

[monty57]

Brewers didn’t sign him to be a #5. They expected him to be closer to a #3. So him being a #5 is kind of a problem.

I doubt the Brewers have any internal definition of "a #3" or "a #5" pitcher. They signed Chacin to be... Chacin.

 

Agree. The "number" of a pitcher doesn't matter. They signed him to a 2-year deal at $7.5M / year. That's around what teams were paying for non-closing relievers this offseason. He was signed to be a guy who can toe the mound every five days and hopefully give the team a chance to win most of the games he starts.

 

Right now, he could probably be considered our third-best starter on the MLB roster. By mid-way through next year, I hope he'll be fighting to hold on to the fifth spot in the rotation as some of our young starters pass him on the depth chart.

[FVBrewerFan]

Brewers didn’t sign him to be a #5. They expected him to be closer to a #3. So him being a #5 is kind of a problem.

I doubt the Brewers have any internal definition of "a #3" or "a #5" pitcher. They signed Chacin to be... Chacin.

 

Exactly. I also doubt the Brewers or any organization views SP as #3 or #4, whatever. They signed Chacin to be an innings eater for a couple years as they start sprinkling in Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, etc.

 

I was not a fan of the signing, and I'm still not. Yet I understand why they did it. I would much rather give Hader the chance to start, or roll with Guerra until Nelson and/or Burnes are ready.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think there's a good chance Chacin gets entrenched in the #5 spot before the end of this season, even if the only MLB additions the Brewers make to the rotation are internal (Nelson, MiLB callups) - that's a good thing.

 

Chacin was essentially signed to take the rotation spot vacated by the combo of Garza/Suter/random questionable at best #5 starter in the 2017 rotation - not to suddenly improve as a pitcher after signing a contract below market value for a dependable bottom of the rotation arm. I'm struggling with why expectations were that he'd suddenly start dominating - and this isn't Suppan, Wolf, or Lohse revisited because the contract he's under is very team-friendly. Best case scenario is he has a few stretches like Marcum did during his 1st season with the Brewers where he is consistently providing 6-7 IP quality starts 80% of the time, with the occasional quick hook or blow up game. Expecting more from him is foolish, and I don't get why people's hair are on fire over it aside from trying to get it out of the way now before Chacin's performance mutes the naysayers.

[And That]

This whole article is a good read if you're feeling down about Chacin, or for some reason convinced he's THE WORST away from Petco, but thought this was a cogent point to the discussion here:

 

Earlier in his career, Chacin suffered from some shoulder problems, but based on his success and velocity, those appear to be behind him. It’s probably worth noting, too, that he has a career 91 ERA-, to go with a 99 FIP- and a 105 xFIP-. A partial explanation for the difference between the first two numbers would be that Chacin is a strong defensive pitcher. Over his career, he’s averaged about +5 defensive runs per 200 innings. He’s been as good as, say, Mike Leake.

 

...

 

Generally speaking, you should bet on the track record. Chacin has looked like an average starting pitcher with a platoon split, so he’s likely to be an average starting pitcher with a platoon split. And teams have long tried to help righties get better against lefties, and vice versa, even before this present information era. But my guess is that the Brewers have some ideas here, ideas backed up by new-age pitcher data. If it doesn’t work out, Chacin can still be fine, but the Brewers will likely make it a priority to help him get lefties out. If he can clear that hurdle, he’d be a whole new kind of value.

[coolhandluke121]

"I do expect this to be a bit of a stumbling year, but they are doing everything they can reasonably be expected to do to stay in the wild card picture without compromising their chances of being one of 2 or 3 dominant NL teams in just a few years."

 

I'm not sure I'm sold on that stumbling at this point. At least not season long. 4 of our 5 starters have been downright bad. (Although this is good for davies before may) 6-5 is a great place to be sitting. Teams got a ton of stored ammo. Nelson Burnes Peralta Woodruff... you really need 2 and things start looking up quick. Suter Chacin Woodruff have been awful. Offense wont hold these garbage numbers all year. Knebel at the deadline. That could be the equivalent of 3 huge trades.

 

Right now I'm rooting for wins just to stay at .500 until June. Don't bury yourself and it gets very interesting in June. Maybe the teams too young but what if Burnes or Peralta jump in and post sub 4 stuff from the jump (both capable I think) there are a lot of wins to be had. You won't win 100 stumbling out of the blocks but people have to realize... this teams just trying to float for 2.5 months.

 

By "stumbling", I meant 85-ish wins and just missing the wild card again when people expected massive improvement. I think the big jump comes next year, assuming they're healthy.

 

I agree about staying afloat until the ASB. The other wild card contenders will have their fair share of problems too. Everyone has to remember that. It's pretty clear the Brewers aren't going to have horrible defense and offense for the whole year. They'll probably be borderline top 5 in both when it's all said and done. But again, it's just a matter of staying in the wild card race without doing too much that could screw up 2019 and beyond. They're in a great spot IMO.