Braun- When do you DFA?

[tmwiese55]

He has won two games already. Yesterday he had a perfect AB and smoked one to deep right on a line with runners on, without a gold glove RF in Hayward that's probably a double and two RBIs in a close game. And I remember one hotshot to the left side he hit on the button. To my eye test he's just simply been chasing too much crap in the dirt and he's not far off from being fine. Hopefully the bad eye at the plate doesn't continue, yea then he's probably in trouble.

[adambr2]

Right, a 'retirement' would be a negotiation with the team in which he ends up with all or almost all of the money anyway but he retires to save face and to free up the roster spot. ARod did this basically.

 

Exactly. ARod was horrible in 2016 but still got every penny owed to him in 2017, or he would have stuck around, which the Yankees didn't want because he was so terrible by then. A-Rod's 'retirement' was nothing more than a release disguised as a retirement to save A-Rod the embarrassment of being released and save the Yankees the burden of releasing an all-time great.

 

The only example I can think of in recent history of a player under contract who actually willingly forfeited the rest of his contract and retired was Salomon Torres, and he obviously lost a lot less than Braun would.

 

I'm sure there are other examples but big money, multiyear players don't do it. It simply doesn't happen.

[adambr2]

In a week of crazy overreactions ... this one takes the cake.

 

He didn't overreact at all. He didn't say Braun sucks and we should release him. He even said he thinks Braun will be fine. He simply asked if Braun hypothetically nosedived in production over the rest of his contract at which point they would cut bait if ever.

 

If Braun started the season 9-18 with 3 HRs and a .600 OBP this question would never have been asked. It was asked because he has started slow.

 

When is the correct time for Milwaukee to DFA Christian Yelich? Jimmy Nelson? Why aren't those fair questions?

 

I think the difference is quite obvious, Braun is a player on the tail end of his career making more money and being less productive than those two, and it's reasonable to believe that he could decline in the next 3 years the way that Alex Rodriguez did near the end of his career.

 

But yes, it's obviously related to his start.

[tmwiese55]

There was starting pitcher recently who forfeited his last year too of something like 10ish mil. Someone along the lines of a Brad Penney. Maybe not him, but someone similar and I'm pretty sure who at some point played for the Marlins.

[adambr2]

There was starting pitcher recently who forfeited his last year too of something like 10ish mil. Someone along the lines of a Brad Penney. Maybe not him, but someone similar and I'm pretty sure who at some point played for the Marlins.

 

Hmm, I certainly believe you but it definitely wasn't Penny. He was on a minor league seal when he retired.

[superfly]

Ok, to get this out of the way NO I don't think the Brewers should DFA Braun.

 

My question is at what point do you do so? IF he's hitting .600 OPS at the break? IF he's at .600 at the end of the season? Seriously asking what it would take.

 

As long as he's even .725ish he's serviceable. He looks lost now, which happens to every single player- but what if it's more long-term? You're stuck with either forcing play Braun because of his status and pay, or have him waste a roster spot on the bench.

 

Eating $40MM+ is a hard pill to swallow, but they also can't afford an unproductive player on the bench the next three years. This is no hiding Wang in the BP for a year, it's carrying a position player who can't hit for several years.

 

I do think he'll come around and be at least a serviceable player the rest of this season, but I just have a feeling at some point in the next 3 years he's going to really fall off. I just think it's a rather interesting question on when the Brewers would be willing to eat his salary, what it would take.

 

Lol. Might as well DFA the whole team because they're no better than Braun.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Criticizing the OP for raising the issue seems a little unfair, especially when the post itself is pretty careful about framing this as a hypothetical. There is a lot of negativity around here and plenty of fan overreaction, but other than the thread title being a little eye-catchy, nothing here suggests something that should be mocked to me.

 

I do think others are right that the answer is close to never. Braun is here through 2020 unless he turns into CC and puts up an 0 fer 75 or something. That ball he hit to Heyward yesterday was smoked.

[chuckiehacks]

I think he's just slumping a bit. When he was really off (and hurt) a couple years ago, he wasn't pulling anything. This year, he's smoked balls to center and to right. I'm confident he'll come around.

[JimH5]

He will never be DFA'ed. And I would never call for it. If he stinks for the first half of the final season of his contract, then turn him into a pinch hitter.

[tmwiese55]

There was starting pitcher recently who forfeited his last year too of something like 10ish mil. Someone along the lines of a Brad Penney. Maybe not him, but someone similar and I'm pretty sure who at some point played for the Marlins.

 

Hmm, I certainly believe you but it definitely wasn't Penny. He was on a minor league seal when he retired.

 

Google got me Gil Meche who did it in 2011 who gave up 12 mil. I don't think that's who I was thinking of, maybe I'll remember or maybe that's who it was.

[tmwiese55]

Got it, Ryan Dempster did it too. Gave up 13 million. Sometimes I'm not crazy, ex Marlin close to Brad Penny, haha.

[Jaylyn]

While I understand the question, it's not going to happen and the window to trade him for meaningful prospects has closed. Any trade would be a bad contract for bad contract type deal and I don't see it happening. I always wondered if the Brewers could have voided his contract based on the fact that his usage of PEDs constituted fraud on his part?

[FVBrewerFan]

After reading everyone's response, here's my answer to my own question. Let's say they're going into 2020 as a legit contender, and Braun is coming off a bad year. They also have Ray or Grisham, etc. who raked in September after getting called up.

 

The money will be spent either way, do you want Braun as the 4th OF or Philips, Grisham, Ray, etc. if they've shown some ability to hit the ball, and obviously offer much better defensively.

 

That's the scenario I see playing out, Braun will have a spot this year and next, but going into the 2020 season a lot of variables in play.

[tmwiese55]

Another variable is if/when the DH comes to the NL.

[Brewer Fever]

Hmm, let's all flood the board with questions and hot takes that we immediately refute but decide to post anyway. Let's see how well that goes over.

 

Maybe I'll start with "When do the Brewers trade Arcia?" And the first sentence can be, "Let me make this clear, I don't think they should trade Arcia but at some point they have to, right?"

[pacopete4]

#RyanBraun4Life

[FVBrewerFan]

Hmm, let's all flood the board with questions and hot takes that we immediately refute but decide to post anyway. Let's see how well that goes over.

 

Maybe I'll start with "When do the Brewers trade Arcia?" And the first sentence can be, "Let me make this clear, I don't think they should trade Arcia but at some point they have to, right?"

 

That's cute, but not what I actually said in my post in either tone or substance. Your post and a few similar to it adds nothing to the topic. If you feel the topic is foolish, you're not required to respond.

[topper09er]

What would it have taken for the Brewers to DFA Robin Yount? Same answer for Braun. If anything, Braun would retire first out of self-respect if he was hitting .100 at some future all star break, similar to Mike Schmidt

 

Why do people think this? When has a former great with many millions left on his contract ever retired early and forfeited all the remaining money? Schmidt lost $500K by retiring and was on a 1 year deal. Braun has millions and millions of reasons not to retire early.

 

He could hit .100 for the next 3 years and he would still stick around long enough to collect every last dime or force the Brewers to make the difficult decision to release him and still have to pay him. It simply doesn't happen the other way.

 

Prince Fielder "retired" but still got all of his guaranteed money.

[adambr2]

What would it have taken for the Brewers to DFA Robin Yount? Same answer for Braun. If anything, Braun would retire first out of self-respect if he was hitting .100 at some future all star break, similar to Mike Schmidt

 

Why do people think this? When has a former great with many millions left on his contract ever retired early and forfeited all the remaining money? Schmidt lost $500K by retiring and was on a 1 year deal. Braun has millions and millions of reasons not to retire early.

 

He could hit .100 for the next 3 years and he would still stick around long enough to collect every last dime or force the Brewers to make the difficult decision to release him and still have to pay him. It simply doesn't happen the other way.

 

Prince Fielder "retired" but still got all of his guaranteed money.

 

Because he had a career ending injury and couldn't play anymore. That's an allowed reason to walk away and still get paid. Getting to the point where you just suck and want to preserve your dignity is not.

[MNBrew]

What would it have taken for the Brewers to DFA Robin Yount? Same answer for Braun. If anything, Braun would retire first out of self-respect if he was hitting .100 at some future all star break, similar to Mike Schmidt

This is a great questions. I loved Yount as a player, but his era is far enough in the past that his performance isn't looked on with the highest degree of critical thought.

 

Yount wasn't much above a replacement player his last 4 years, and watching him got painful in the last year or two when he maybe pulled a dozen balls foul to left each year. It was that bad. But the scrutiny over deep stats was 15 years away when he retired, so he's still thought of as a hero. Yount was also paid awfully highly for his era for his production. Had he ended his career in this era, I can't imagine how his Brewer-legendary career would be dissected & criticized.

 

Braun's 2017 easily bests Yount's 1993 contributions significantly including nearly 120 OPS points in 20 fewer games played. That Yount was rated as a 2 bWAR guy compared to Braun at 1.2 bWAR last year also points to how grossly overweighted OF defense is in bWAR calculations b/c Yount was pretty lousy at the plate in 1993. fWAR has them about equal. Yount's defense was still good. I watched enough of Braun last year to know he wasn't as good in the field as he's been in the past, but he also wasn't lousy as people seem to make him out to be, and it's obvious he's also had to alter his approach to playing in the OF depending on the nature of the injuries he's been fighting -- a viable explanation whereas I don't recall Robin fighting so many injuries in 1993.

 

In 1993 Yount's last good year was 4 years behind him. Braun's last good year was last year. Now this year's only 10 games old with most of the team mostly playing mediocre-to-poor, but Braun himself has provided 2 dramatic GW hits in spite of his rough start.

[danzig6767]

When do the Yankees DFA Giancarlo Stanton?

Yea, Stanton is batting .167 with a whopping 20 K's in only 42 at bats.

 

Braun clearly is in his declining years, but in watching him so far this season, i think the biggest reason for his struggles is poor plate discipline. To often he's been swinging at garbage.

 

Some upper tier hitters can get away with poor plate discipline and at times Braun could also while in his prime, but he no longer is 2011 or 2012 Braun. Swing at better pitches and i think he'll be productive.

[coolhandluke121]

What would it have taken for the Brewers to DFA Robin Yount? Same answer for Braun. If anything, Braun would retire first out of self-respect if he was hitting .100 at some future all star break, similar to Mike Schmidt

This is a great questions. I loved Yount as a player, but his era is far enough in the past that his performance isn't looked on with the highest degree of critical thought.

 

Yount wasn't much above a replacement player his last 4 years, and watching him got painful in the last year or two when he maybe pulled a dozen balls foul to left each year. It was that bad. But the scrutiny over deep stats was 15 years away when he retired, so he's still thought of as a hero. Yount was also paid awfully highly for his era for his production. Had he ended his career in this era, I can't imagine how his Brewer-legendary career would be dissected & criticized.

 

Braun's 2017 easily bests Yount's 1993 contributions significantly including nearly 120 OPS points in 20 fewer games played. That Yount was rated as a 2 bWAR guy compared to Braun at 1.2 bWAR last year also points to how grossly overweighted OF defense is in bWAR calculations b/c Yount was pretty lousy at the plate in 1993. fWAR has them about equal. Yount's defense was still good. I watched enough of Braun last year to know he wasn't as good in the field as he's been in the past, but he also wasn't lousy as people seem to make him out to be, and it's obvious he's also had to alter his approach to playing in the OF depending on the nature of the injuries he's been fighting -- a viable explanation whereas I don't recall Robin fighting so many injuries in 1993.

 

In 1993 Yount's last good year was 4 years behind him. Braun's last good year was last year. Now this year's only 10 games old with most of the team mostly playing mediocre-to-poor, but Braun himself has provided 2 dramatic GW hits in spite of his rough start.

 

Braun was 33 last year. When Yount was 33, he was a 6 WAR MVP at a premium defensive position. I'll be shocked and thrilled if Braun has the value Yount had in his age 34-36 seasons. Braun has a buyout at 36 and I'm guessing the Brewers will exercise it, so we can probably leave out Yount's age 37 season.

 

Yount had basically a 100 OPS+ in '90-'92. That's league average with above average defense at a premium position. Braun's OPS+ was only 111 last year, which isn't enough to make up for his inferior defense at a position that's much easier to play. I think you're underestimating the importance of instincts in the outfield, not to mention Braun's inability to consistently hit a cut-off man and give him a chance to make a play. More importantly, OPS is pretty meaningless compared to OPS+ considering the parks and divisions they played in. I'm not suggesting Miller is Coors East, but you have to account for the huge advantage.

 

I also don't like the "fighting injuries" excuse, because Braun is almost always fighting nagging injuries - it's part of his value. Yount was a far more valuable player throughout his career. The OPS+ he produced in the 80's was comparable to Braun's at the same age, yet he played two premium defensive positions at a gold glove level. That's like if Cain could hit like Braun.

[The stache]

I wonder if they're doing the same thing in Arizona.

 

"When do you DFA Paul Goldschmidt? He's hitting .118 with a 45 OPS +."

[pacopete4]

I wonder if they're doing the same thing in Arizona.

 

"When do you DFA Paul Goldschmidt? He's hitting .118 with a 45 OPS +."

 

Another buy-low candidate for Stearns... let's offer Thames and see if they go for it.

[tmwiese55]

Remember a couple years ago when Votto started terribly. And it got into this type of talk and him saying he'd retire if he kept playing that way? Gotta love small samples.