Making a case for an early promotion of Corbin Burnes

[wildcat2237]

I just watched Burnes' last Colorado Springs start.

 

His fastball appears to really explode out of his hand. Anybody know if his velocity is up this year.?

[Eye Black]

June 1st this year marks 122 days of services time remaining in the 2018 season. Since 2009 that is the lowest cutoff for number of service days a player has accumulated (beyond two full years of service years) and still received Super Two status following their third season.

 

Here are the Super Two service time cutoffs since 2009...

 

• 2017: 2.123
  2016: 2.131
  2015: 2.140
  2014: 2.133
  2013: 2.122
  2012: 2.140
  2011: 2.146
  2010: 2.122
  2009: 2.139

 

I think it’s important the Brewers wait until at least a few days after June 1st to ensure they have the extra year of control for Corbin Burnes. While service time manipulation is typically frowned upon, it is unfortunately a necessary evil for a small market club like the Brewers. If they call Burnes up before June he will likely gain Super Two status following the 2020 season. That would make him eligible for a significant raise via arbitration starting in 2021 and he would become a free agent following the 2023 season (so a FA heading into his age 29 season). If they wait until at least a few days into June he will remain cost controlled until 2022, and will be under team control through the 2024 season (not eligible for free agency until his age 30 season).

 

The incentive for keeping Burnes in the minors until June appear too great to imagine the Brewers would consider bringing him up any earlier. It would cost them a significant amount more financially in 2021 when they are hopefully still within this competitive window, as well as the fact they would lose a potentially important rotation piece a year early (before the 2024 season as opposed to following it).

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think barring a huge rash of SP injuries, Burnes won't be in Milwaukee until he clears the June Super 2 cutoff as well - there are going to be other rotation options the Brewers can mess around with and give opportunities (Guerra, Miley) while biding their time.

 

With Burnes being a college draftee, I'm a bit less concerned about service time clocks since his arm already has the added mileage of 3 years of college pitching on it. With college pitchers who display solid command and above average stuff, I prefer the strategy of pushing them through the minors until they struggle, and if they don't struggle they should be pitching in the majors. However, their innings workload still needs to be gradually increased, as I feel like they've grown accustomed to logging 100-150 IP for several years between college and minors, but need a couple MLB seasons to jump up over 175IP. Too often a talented college pitcher hits the big leagues fast and immediately is going close to 200+ innings - particularly for teams in the hunt for a playoff spot - only to have a setback the following season due to an arm injury. Pitchers and injuries are so fickle, if you have a potential #2 or better starting pitcher logging innings at AAA, as soon as that Super 2 cutoff passes you get him in the MLB rotation - forecasting what a pitcher is 6 years from now is impossible. A mid June callup would essentially be 2 years of minor league development for Burnes, and frankly if he's healthy I wouldn't much care what his #'s in CO Springs are - he's probably ready to pitch in the majors.

 

Depending on how the first two months of this season unfold, I think there's a solid chance the starting rotation could have a bunch of different names in it by August. Aside from Burnes and Nelson, it wouldn't surprise me for Peralta to get a shot - and if the wheels fall off the mlb season I strongly feel like the Brewers need to use the 2nd half of this year to get Hader stretched out and starting at the MLB level, too. Rotation options of Nelson, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go along with Anderson, Davies, and Chacin is enticing.

[adambr2]

June 1st this year marks 122 days of services time remaining in the 2018 season. Since 2009 that is the lowest cutoff for number of service days a player has accumulated (beyond two full years of service years) and still received Super Two status following their third season.

 

Here are the Super Two service time cutoffs since 2009...

 

• 2017: 2.123
  2016: 2.131
  2015: 2.140
  2014: 2.133
  2013: 2.122
  2012: 2.140
  2011: 2.146
  2010: 2.122
  2009: 2.139

 

I think it’s important the Brewers wait until at least a few days after June 1st to ensure they have the extra year of control for Corbin Burnes. While service time manipulation is typically frowned upon, it is unfortunately a necessary evil for a small market club like the Brewers. If they call Burnes up before June he will likely gain Super Two status following the 2020 season. That would make him eligible for a significant raise via arbitration starting in 2021 and he would become a free agent following the 2023 season (so a FA heading into his age 29 season). If they wait until at least a few days into June he will remain cost controlled until 2022, and will be under team control through the 2024 season (not eligible for free agency until his age 30 season).

 

The incentive for keeping Burnes in the minors until June appear too great to imagine the Brewers would consider bringing him up any earlier. It would cost them a significant amount more financially in 2021 when they are hopefully still within this competitive window, as well as the fact they would lose a potentially important rotation piece a year early (before the 2024 season as opposed to following it).

 

I believe you are mistaking the service time requirement for free agency. The extra service year is gained simply by waiting until the theoretical April 13th cutoff to keep him under 172 days for this year. Super 2 players are still under control for (almost) 7 seasons, they simply get 4 years arbitration versus 3.

 

Burnes would be under control through 2024 regardless of being a late April or June callup. The only advantage to waiting until June is financial, not control.

[Eye Black]

I believe you are mistaking the service time requirement for free agency. The extra service year is gained simply by waiting until the theoretical April 13th cutoff to keep him under 172 days for this year. Super 2 players are still under control for (almost) 7 seasons, they simply get 4 years arbitration versus 3.

 

Burnes would be under control through 2024 regardless of being a late April or June callup. The only advantage to waiting until June is financial, not control.

Yeah, good call. Under 172 services days for Free Agency purposes, and likely under 122 needed for salary arbitration to be delayed a year.

[adambr2]

One example of when this really worked well for the team is Cody Bellinger last year. The Dodgers called him up on April 25th after the 172 day service year cutoff and "gained" that extra year of service in 2023. Yeah they'll be paying him more as a Super 2 from 2020-2023 but I doubt they regret it.

 

One major difference is that the Dodgers would have made the playoffs whether Bellinger was called up in April or June, they had a very large margin for error. We don't.

[FVBrewerFan]

If Burnes is ready, no way do I hold him back until next season. Waiting for June to push back arbitration a year? Sure, why not. What about Peralta? He is basically on the same track as Burnes. If he keeps turning in impressive starts, at what point do you bring him up?

 

I would ride Guerra, Miley, whoever until June. Then bring Burnes and Nelson up. Come July/August I would try to trade Chacin for sure, possibly Davies too, and bring up Peralta. Then starting off 2019:

 

Hader

Burnes

Peralta

Nelson

Anderson

 

Woodruff shuttled as needed, or in the bullpen. Ortiz in the wings. Rebuild doesn't truly take the next step until this next group of starters get going. They will need to adjust, as the league adjusts to them. It could take time, so best to get them started sooner rather than later.

[JohnBriggs12]

So far this season in a limited number of PA his O-swing% is 37.5%. Last year it was 29% and when he was productive it was 23.7%. Swinging at that many pitches outside the strike zone is not anywhere near a “good approach” in my book. Sample size says wait til June and see if he’s the Villar of 2016 or 2017, but some of his bad habits from last year have gotten worse so far.

 

He was much closer to his career numbers in 2017 than he was in 2016, when his BABIP was a ridiculous .373. I don't expect him to ever approach those 2016 numbers but after giving away a better player (Gennett) last year, they were afraid of doing the same thing and having him come back to haunt them like Scooter did last year.

[pacopete4]

Scooter is supporting a .294 OBP, a .627 OPS, and a 75 OPS+ so far(33 at-bats). It will be really interesting to track him this season and see if he is anywhere near what he did a season ago.

[TJseven7]

CC mentioned in spring that you could see burnes and peralta sometime in June. I assumed that was Burnes starting Peralta in the pen. I'm now thinking they jump Woodruff and Suter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let me just say, Super 2.

 

Yes it can become very expensive. But, pitchers.

 

How many instances are there with pitchers getting hurt/TJ losing a season-plus. Loses velocity. And is nothing exciting shiny and new vs 6years later?

Matt Harvey was amazing,. TJ later, he is yet to put amazing back together.

Pittsburgh has had Cole, Taillon, and another I cant think of right now.

 

6 years-170days make that happen vs 6 years 120 days. A pitcher is too fragile to rely with on out-growing your ability to pay him for his 6th or 7th years.

 

Woodruff missed his debut to injury and put off.

If Burnes becomes a case where we get 4years-170days as a Minor League farm for the Yanks/Dodgers so be it. We'll get a great return in prospects and begin this cycle over. If it ends up being Burnes is a #3 vs higher, he wont be priced above the teams ability to pay him down the road.

 

10games he can start more now. The team needs the injection.

[OnaBadger58]

Tom‏

@Haudricourt

 

Corbin Burnes pitched in relief for @skysox last night because #Brewers want to see how he looks in that role. Interesting.

 

3:47 PM - 19 Jun 2018 from Pittsburgh, PA

 

Didn't know quote where to put this, so hopefully this will work. Not sure if this tweet will mean anything, but maybe he could start his career off like Hader did last year? Wonder if Burnes is close to getting the call.

[AKCheesehead]

I was wondering the same thing. He pitched in relief, and now today Boone DFA...

[KeithStone53151]

CC came out and said Burnes is more likely to help the 2018 brewers in the pen, but long term is a starter.

 

[adambr2]

I'm kind of surprised by this. Burnes is arguably the best starting prospect in the system, has been a starter his entire professional career and the pen is already in pretty good shape. Surprised they would change his trajectory even for this year, although I suppose you can argue it's the only way he's going to help us this year as he's going to hit an innings limit early as a starter.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm kind of surprised by this. Burnes is arguably the best starting prospect in the system, has been a starter his entire professional career and the pen is already in pretty good shape. Surprised they would change his trajectory even for this year, although I suppose you can argue it's the only way he's going to help us this year as he's going to hit an innings limit early as a starter.

 

The innings limit has to be the reasoning. Might be a blessing to get him out of Colorado Springs and into Milwaukee whichever way possible too.

[pacopete4]

First Hader and now Burnes. Woof.

[tmwiese55]

I don't see the rush as of right now. Guerra, Chacin, Anderson are pretty much locked into 3 spots. Suter hasn't been killing them. You have Woodruff and Peralta to fill in until Davies is back. Plus Jimmy coming back in the next month or so. Bullpen is well set. If something happens with injuries or guys completely losing it, sure that changes things but as of now I'd just keep the process going as a starter and likely get him a taste in the September call ups.

 

If anything I'd like to see Woodruff given a bit more of a run if the situation calls for it. He has the stuff, might just need some time like Nelson did. It's tough being in a pennant race though to give him those reps like they could with Nelson.

[OnaBadger58]

First Hader and now Burnes. Woof.

 

I would say it's similar to Hader in the best way to help the club right now is in the bullpen. I don't see Burnes sticking in the bullpen any longer than this year.

[markedman5]

Yeah I think Burnes profiles as a starter going forward. This doesn't concern me at all and if they need him it would be nice to get him out of CS for a while.

[long ball]

First Hader and now Burnes. Woof.

 

I would say it's similar to Hader in the best way to help the club right now is in the bullpen. I don't see Burnes sticking in the bullpen any longer than this year.

 

Ya, I don't see why anyone would be worried about them trying to use Burnes out of the bullpen this season. They still see him as a SP long term.

[MrTPlush]

A lot of people are going to compare this to Hader, but I don’t see it. Burnes has looked like an MLB starter his entire career. Josh Hader has pretty legitimate concerns that had a lot pointing to the bullpen.

 

There are many possibilities here. They could just see Colorado Spring not helping him and figure promoting him later in the season as doing nothing negative for his development.

 

I also could see them moving even more toward the super pen concept. It worked with Hader and he is arguably one of the most valuable pitchers you can throw out there. Burnes could be a big impact in a similar role. Strengthens the team this year without giving anything up at the deadline.

[wallus]

First Hader and now Burnes. Woof.

 

Holy overreaction.

[pacopete4]

First Hader and now Burnes. Woof.

 

Holy overreaction.

 

Uhh... why? I wanted Hader in the rotation. He’s now in the pen. I’d rather see Burnes in the rotation than Suter or a guy like Miley. He will now most likely be in the pen. The reaction is completely justified. These decisions suck IMO.

[tmwiese55]

Seems a bit of an overreaction to think having him play one game out of the pen means he's going to be in the pen from here. They might simply be looking at innings limits for the year already so this could be a break and gives him some experience in a role he might need to be in come September or playoffs (as he'll hit an innings limit by then).