Making a case for an early promotion of Corbin Burnes

[adambr2]

So Burnes was Burnes yesterday for the Sky Sox. And while you can't overreact to just one start, it's not really about the one start. It's about the sheer dominance that he's had at every level, High A, AA, and AAA throughout his time in the system. And even though he's just shy of 2 years in the system, at 23 with a seemingly high level of maturity, you can't necessarily even say he's not ready. Heck, Zach Davies has been doing his thing here since the age of 22.

 

So, I'll make my case here for a Burnes promotion now, and here's why. I know it's early, but the starting pitching need is clear. This isn't 2011 with some starters just struggling out of the gates, we just simply don't have a good rotation, and I think we all pretty much knew that coming in. This is not a situation where we have a good rotation and we just need to be patient -- I think the majority of us are in agreement that this rotation could use upgrades. I think it's quite apparent however, that based on a lack of offseason pitching moves, and a lack of willingness to move Burnes in the offseason in a deal, we consider him to be a future mainstay in this rotation, and I fully believe we intent for that to start this season.

 

The issue right now is, we're playing the service time game with him. And that's understandable. But here's the thing, we can still do that, and bring him up now. Here's why: A player needs 172 days of service in a season to accumulate a full service year. Therefore, we need only to wait until there are 171 days left in the season to promote Burnes and still control him all the way through 2024, his age 29 season. By my own calculations, that date appears to be April 13th.

 

Yes, if he sticks, he will be Super 2 eligible after 2020, and this move will cost us millions more than waiting until July. But couldn't you argue that if he DOES stick, that his production and the difference that could make in us being a playoff team this year or not, justifies that expense? After all, this doesn't even need to be a permanent move. We can give him until June when Nelson returns, and if it appears he's just not ready, he can be sent back down for Nelson to move up, no harm, no foul, and he can continue working in AAA. The important thing either way is that we control him through 2024. But if it IS working out, we've added not one, but two major pieces to the rotation by June, and that could make an enormous difference on our end of season result this year.

 

To me, it hurts nothing to find out right now if he can be a difference maker, other than having to find a 40 man roster spot for him. Suter goes back to relief where he's a much better fit, and by June, if things work out, we'll have a very good problem on our hands trying to figure out who goes to make room for Nelson, and that question should answer itself by then.

 

That's my case for rolling with Burnes now. I know it's probably not going to happen, but I think there's some logic to it.

[pacopete4]

Lots of words for me to read but no need really as I completely agree, especially if other guys continue to not do their job over the next couple starts. He’s not that young and he’s had great success. It’s time Milwaukee takes a shot at it with this guy.

[adambr2]

Lots of words for me to read

 

Yeah, I tend to ramble. Condensed version:

 

Burnes has been awesome and we should find out if he can be awesome here too since our rotation isn't good. We only need to wait until April 13th to promote him and still get that 7th service year. He'll be Super 2 eligible eventually but that's ok because if he's great the extra cost will be worth it to have him and if he's not we can send him back down. We should give him a shot now.

[benji]

I think Burnes and Nelson will be part of rotation by June. That usually avoids the super 2 for Burnes. Guerra will have to start in Wednesday. I think Brewers need to see what Woodruff, Guerra and Suter provide before removing them from the rotation.

 

 

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[Oxy]

I think you wait until May, anyway. They have enough arms that they seem to be confident in to go through the rotation a few more times to see if somebody finds success. It's still awfully early. They'd have to make room on the 40 man as well.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I’d say do it. Wait until that April date to get the extra year and service time but with pitchers it shouldn’t be as big a deal

as with position players since they can blow up easier so get them up as soon as they are ready because they may only have so many bullets.

[Never Outhustled]

Many Brewers fans freaked out about the pitching early last year too. It ended up being the strength of the team. I'll predict it does this year too. Woodruff had some great AAA starts early last year too, but was tested as the year wore on.

 

Maybe Burnes earns an opportunity later on, but we're a ways away from seeing him up.

[TJseven7]

Yeah I like cheap control, so I'd be fine with milking it a bit longer but I can't justify letting Suter mill about. His control is off, he's up in the zone way too much.

 

The fangeaphs article on Woodruffs accuracy really shined a light on what I was seeing with him. The random pitches that were no where near where he wanted them. His stuffs good enough to make it work well enough but Burnes control is going to take him a long long way. I had him higher on my preseason board for that reason.

 

I can see limping a bit longer... but Burnes needs to hit this rotation no later than June. He's ready. He's going to be sub 4 early in his career. He might not profile high, we don't know but being like Davies is very likely. When Davies is on he's pretty exceptional. I currently see Burnes as our 3rd best starter so whenever they want to start that control... by all means go ahead.

 

Suter needs to get bumped to his long man role. Woodruff Chacin at 4-5 is much nicer. Nelson can bump the worst of those 2 when he's ready. I expect Woodruff to struggle for awhile still, kinda like Nelson... but Burnes is ready to roll.

[rickh150]

My guess is that Guerra gets a chance before Burnes.

[wallus]

We need someone that can go 6 or more innings right now, I don't know if Burnes is that guy.

[brewcrewdue80]

Im with ya on calling him up once hes gotten that extra year of team control. Not worried at all on Super 2. In a way, what if this move is what happens for Woodruff's demotion? Kneble going down for 2months saves money right there in his arbitration cases. And you can always give the extension contract to reduce impact of Super2 year to year. Without looking it up, I imagine he doesnt have Boras as his agent.

Id actually call for a six man rotation, where the back end three, can be emergency longman. Now you really get results determining your trade deadlines/future moves with rotation, while having lower IP with the 4? Less starts needed on a 5man rotation.

[kfizz]

With so many outs in the lineup, I definitely wait to get the extra year of control, but agree he should be up at that point. Guys like Chacin, Suter, Guerra and Miley will never be guys the Brewers can start with confidence. They force Counsell to kill the bullpen and understaff elsewhere, keeping guys like Sogard and Perez that can do multiple things but none of them well.

[xisxisxis]

I’d wait til June, see how Suter and Woodruff have looked in more than 2 starts and I wold also see what Villar has done and if he continues to be Villar v2017, just release him (option him? Does he have 1 left) and promote Huiera. No need to continue wasting a roster space on a player whose approach at the plate makes Jose K look like an OBP machine. Start jettisoning the crap...

[pacopete4]

I don’t even think Hiura has a hit yet this season and can’t play 2B yet either.

[xisxisxis]

Doesn’t bother me. 1) he is the future; 2) his approach at the plate couldn’t be any closer to 180 degrees opposite of Villar; and 3) his defense would fit right in.

[pacopete4]

Doesn’t bother me. 1) he is the future; 2) his approach at the plate couldn’t be any closer to 180 degrees opposite of Villar; and 3) his defense would fit right in.

 

No, like.. he can’t play on defense. His elbow is messed up to begin the year. Might need surgery.

[xisxisxis]

Stop thinking inside the box! This is not a problem. Teach him to glove the ball then kick the glove to 1st base or 2nd base:

 

1) throwing is overrated in baseball;

2) he would fit right in...

[pacopete4]

Stop thinking inside the box! This is not a problem. Teach him to glove the ball then kick the glove to 1st base or 2nd base:

 

1) throwing is overrated in baseball;

2) he would fit right in...

[MrTPlush]

2) his approach at the plate couldn’t be any closer to 180 degrees opposite of Villar

 

That is really scary then because Villar has a pretty good approach at the plate. He just has a decent sized hole(s) in his bat.

[xisxisxis]

So far this season in a limited number of PA his O-swing% is 37.5%. Last year it was 29% and when he was productive it was 23.7%. Swinging at that many pitches outside the strike zone is not anywhere near a “good approach” in my book. Sample size says wait til June and see if he’s the Villar of 2016 or 2017, but some of his bad habits from last year have gotten worse so far.

[patrickgpe]

Im OK with it (in the past I wouldn't be), there is a model for this in Hader and it worked fine.

[3and2Fastball]

This Brewers team looks far from being a contender. No way would I start Burnes' clock early

[PlayerHader]

This Brewers team looks far from being a contender. No way would I start Burnes' clock early

 

Sample size or something...?

[wildcat2237]

This Brewers team looks far from being a contender. No way would I start Burnes' clock early

 

Sample size or something...?

 

I agree with 3 and 2. The rebuild is not over.

 

I would look to trade Shaw. and then try to trade Knebel close to the deadline.

 

This team does not have the starting pitching to contend.

 

Leave Burnes in AAA. No need to rush him.

 

I get the Hader and Davies comps however, even Davies and Hader spend some time in AAA.

[Tbadder]

I think Burnes and Nelson will be part of rotation by June. That usually avoids the super 2 for Burnes. Guerra will have to start in Wednesday. I think Brewers need to see what Woodruff, Guerra and Suter provide before removing them from the rotation

 

I completely agree here with the Nelson sentiment, and for this reason I’d rather wait on Corbin until next year. Woodruff in particular needs a string of starts, say 10, in order to move forward. I believe Guerra needs a second chance as well ala Villar, and Suter queues ahead of Burnes as well in my book because of the clear strides he’s made, but if all fail miserably and Chacin remains Chacin, I really don’t think the Brewers will have a choice. They’d been more or less forced to call him up.