BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Pre-Season Edition

[adambr2]

It's starting to get worrisome that Phillips has worse stats in almost every category than non-top-30 prospect and same-aged Tyrone Taylor.

 

Phillips has definitely taken a big value hit this year. Not that long ago he was a top 50 prospect and headlined the Gomez deal, then dropped off some with a mediocre 2016 and gained some value back with a nice 2017.

 

He's still young, and there's certainly still some value there, but mediocre Colorado Springs numbers aren't going to thrill any potential trade partner.

[NYChez]

<<< I think there will be a fairly clear-cut top 8 (except for the usual outliers) - Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Ortiz, Z. Brown, Ray, Phillips, Turang (assuming he signs). Then a somewhat consistent but wildly ranging in order #9-20 where you have Nottingham, Houser, Lutz, Dubon, and then what seems like half of the Biloxi team (Stokes, Medeiros, Gatewood, Supak, Grisham, Erceg, Ponce, Diplan). >>>

 

Ortiz, Houser, and Medeiros should be grouped together.

[Jenkins5]

Peralta may loss status by post trade line when we make our next Top 25. Think Segovia, Webb, Payton Henry, and Demi O have made nice jumps. Jean Carmona, Chad McClanahan both pushing forward with Coco looking positive. Carlos Rodriquez has been great. Bello showing up with Turang & Gray Jr both being drafted high enough that they will fall in top 25. Lutz is adjusting and coming on. Feliciano has had lost season so far and hurt his stock.

 

Be interesting how it all shakes out

[BrewersAA]

I think meideros should make another jump. Former first rounder having his results in AA... he’s legit. Also it’s not uncommon for high school pitchers to take a little time to really find their stuff and it appears he has. Another who I think should be a big riser is chad mclannahan, he is really putting it together at the plate. I know he was expected to start at A ball in many’s opinion but he is raking in rookie. He has the pedigree and was a big signing for an 11th rounder, should have been a 2-3 round pick.

[LouisEly]

I think meideros should make another jump. Former first rounder having his results in AA... he’s legit. Also it’s not uncommon for high school pitchers to take a little time to really find their stuff and it appears he has. Another who I think should be a big riser is chad mclannahan, he is really putting it together at the plate. I know he was expected to start at A ball in many’s opinion but he is raking in rookie. He has the pedigree and was a big signing for an 11th rounder, should have been a 2-3 round pick.

Medeiros is eight months younger than Ortiz, pitching at the same level, and at the least is not pitching worse. Higher BB/9 than Ortiz, but lower H/9 and lower OPS-A (as both a starter and a reliever). Both picked in the same draft - Medeiros at #12, Ortiz at #30. I don't see any reason why Medeiros should be ranked significantly lower than Ortiz, if lower than him at all.

 

I think biggest jump will be Zack Brown.

[reillymcshane]

Lutz has made some nice progress after a bad start. He's now up to .251 BA and an OPS of .761. Considering he was hitting sub-.200 in mid-May, he's slowly and steadily improved.

 

2nd half of the year he's at a .974 OPS (covering 83 ABs, so not a ton). Encouraging stuff.

[reillymcshane]

I thought Medeiros would be in the bullpen by this time - so great for him and the org for getting him to where he is at this time. He's really gotten more consistent with his performances, and improved tremendously this year against right handers. Great to see. Let's just hope he keeps things up.

[Jenkins5]

Tyrone Taylor has put name back on map in big way this season. Have to believe he may get a look at MLB soon with how much they shuffle guys back & forth. Nottingham as well. Both came back to life as many had begun to write them off.

 

Ray may finish with a 25/25 season (20/20 seems very probable) & outside of batting average, the other numbers are there. It has been a big bounce back for a guy many wanted to be an added throw in for any possible trade.

 

Brown, Mederois, Diplan stock up.... Supek about the same.... Ponce down.

 

Payton Henry will get some love as he should. Think C. McClanahan, Z. Clark, Y. Coco, C. Rodriquez, get plenty of top 25 votes (Carmona has already assertive self prior).

 

Lot of depth & think there will be a ton a variation from ballot to ballot if there is no big trade made.

 

Dubon & Feliciano injuries hurt stock but both still top 20 guys

[ctmyers]

Tyrone Taylor has put name back on map in big way this season. Have to believe he may get a look at MLB soon with how much they shuffle guys back & forth. Nottingham as well. Both came back to life as many had begun to write them off.

 

 

His home/away splits are pretty drastic. .357/.407/.675 (home) vs. .204/.242/.369 (away).

[Jenkins5]

Tyrone Taylor has put name back on map in big way this season. Have to believe he may get a look at MLB soon with how much they shuffle guys back & forth. Nottingham as well. Both came back to life as many had begun to write them off.

 

 

His home/away splits are pretty drastic. .357/.407/.675 (home) vs. .204/.242/.369 (away).

 

That is pretty skewed due to an absolute brutal mont on road from May 4th to June 7th.... He was awful in general in May hitting only .202 with .248 obp but during that stretch he was 7-62 on road (.113 average) since June 8th when he started to get going again he has hit 18-67 (.268)

 

XBH 3 2B & 1 HR during May stretch

 

Since June 8: 5 2B & 3HR on road

 

So while splits don’t line up as evenly as you’d like, 67 ABs of .113 on road when you are really struggling in general hurts.

[reillymcshane]

As a note, we'll do our mid-season prospect poll beginning August 1. That way all the deadline deals will be done, and any additions/subtractions can be accounted for.

 

I'll put the post up a few days before the poll opens for voting - just to give people a heads up. We will do the same format as before.

[heresrobin]

Sorry for my ignorance of the rules, but we might have to decide if we are going to be considering Brett Phillips a rookie/prospect being under 150 PAs, as well as Freddy Peralta and Taylor Williams being under 50 IPs, correct? You could make an argument that all 3 have sort of moved past prospect status even though they all might be under the thresholds as of August 1st. Just thinkin' ahead a bit...

[reillymcshane]

Sorry for my ignorance of the rules, but we might have to decide if we are going to be considering Brett Phillips a rookie/prospect being under 150 PAs, as well as Freddy Peralta and Taylor Williams being under 50 IPs, correct? You could make an argument that all 3 have sort of moved past prospect status even though they all might be under the thresholds as of August 1st. Just thinkin' ahead a bit...

Taylor Williams will definitely not be eligible. He's been on the major league roster for several months - and after 45 days (outside the DL and September call up) a guy is no longer considered a rookie. Taylor has been taken off most (if not all) of the major prospect sites.

 

As for Peralta -- I'm guessing he will graduate by then. He only needs 13 innings to hit 50. Two or three starts should get him there. And even if he's only a few innings short, we'll probably just make him ineligible knowing that he'll go over the limit in his next start.

 

We shall see about Phillips. If he is sent down soon, he should still be rookie eligible. But if he gets close and is still on the roster at the deadline, we will likely graduate him knowing - like with Peralta - that he'll be going over the 130 AB mark in short order. But we will see how it goes.

 

In the end, we need to just use common sense. If Peralta and Phillips are just a week or so away from hitting the rookie eligible limits - then we'll just leave them off our lists. It just makes sense.

 

No one else should be in danger of graduating from the prospect. Only other note is that Josh Pennington has retired (he got to #26 in our last poll - tough luck) - so he won't garner any votes.

 

We could potentially lose more guys via trades - but we shall see.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think Lutz will be an interesting case. If he can keep his hot streak going, he might be a top 100 prospect at year's end. He's put himself in position where he has a legitimate shot at finishing the year with an .800 OPS. Between the 2006 and 2016 draft classes, 36 first or second round picks out of high school have posted an .800+ OPS in A ball the year after getting drafted. Of those 33 were top 100 prospects after that season and the three others (Jesse Winker, Chance Sisco and Austin Riley) made it after the following season.

 

Also good news if he makes that mark, other than the 2015 and 2016 guys only one player hasn't made the big leagues, and in many ways for high school picks it seems like a better indicator of future success than draft position.

[reillymcshane]

I think Lutz will be an interesting case. If he can keep his hot streak going, he might be a top 100 prospect at year's end. He's put himself in position where he has a legitimate shot at finishing the year with an .800 OPS. Between the 2006 and 2016 draft classes, 36 first or second round picks out of high school have posted an .800+ OPS in A ball the year after getting drafted. Of those 33 were top 100 prospects after that season and the three others (Jesse Winker, Chance Sisco and Austin Riley) made it after the following season.

 

Also good news if he makes that mark, other than the 2015 and 2016 guys only one player hasn't made the big leagues, and in many ways for high school picks it seems like a better indicator of future success than draft position.

I think Lutz will hold his position (#6) - maybe even move a bit. His OPS is .768 - very good for the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (average OPS is around .700). And he's been hitting great the last month or so. People like to see guys improving (and not the other way around). So he should get plenty of love.

 

As for specific ranking, Woodruff (#3) has graduated. And the one guy who really would move up into the top five - Freddy Peralta - is likely to graduate from this list as well. So he won't be a factor.

 

Hiura and Burnes should keep the top spots. Ortiz and Phillips are next. Neither has been great, but I'm not sure if Lutz will leapfrog either. Still is a possibility, but we shall see.

 

Otherwise, of the guys below Lutz on our last poll, I'm guessing Corey Ray is the only player that could pass over him. But Ray would have to go on a bit of a tear an improve his batting average to make such a move. And even then, there's no guarantee.

 

Of the rest of the guys below Lutz, I don't think anyone having a campaign that will vault them into the Top 5 of our prospect list. Dubon is hurt. Erceg is doing well of late, but overall is nothing special. Medeiros, Nottingham, Diplan, Stokes, Gatewood - all doing well enough to move up in the rankings, but not to the extent they leap up to the Top 5 area.

 

The one guy really having a breakout season is Zack Brown - but I don't expect him to jump from 28 into the Top 5. Maybe Top 10, but players rarely make moves that big.

 

Only other guy to probably consider in the Top 10 is our top pick, Brice Turang. But almost no way he slots into the Top 5 area.

 

Obviously, trades can shake things up, or Lutz could go 0-40 in his next 10 games, but as things stand now, I'm betting Lutz jumps up in the rankings, or at worst, holds the #6 spot.