Former/Current Brewers with a shot at the HOF?

[coolhandluke121]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

 

No, not even close.

 

People are really underrating Cameron's career here. What's being ignored is that defense is an enormous part of his resume.

 

I think that's the first time I've seen defense mentioned since the conversation started. That tells me everything I need to know.

[adambr2]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

 

No, not even close.

 

People are really underrating Cameron's career here. What's being ignored is that defense is an enormous part of his resume.

 

I think that's the first time I've seen defense mentioned since the conversation started. That tells me everything I need to know.

 

I'm not understanding what you're saying I don't think. Are you saying defense isn't a strong enough part of a resume to warrant MVP consideration?

 

If so I'd cite Omar Vizquel, who got 37% in his first HOF vote. He's a decent shot to get in at some point. His offense was mediocre at very best.

[Eye Black]

Yelich is considered a HoFer at this point?

 

Good golly this really is a Brewer fan board!

Curious what you are referencing since I haven’t seen one poster in this thread indicate “Yelich is a HoFer”?

 

If you’re referring specifically to my post, I was pointing out that he has had a very good career thus far at a young age which compares favorably to the various homegrown players throughout Brewers history who reached the majors at a young age. I used factual information to share something I found interesting, if you spun that into Yelich being considered a Hall of Famer than I think you misconstrued the intent. Yelich has been a very good player to this point in his career. His odds of making the Hall of Fame remain unlikely (as is the case with every player his age not named Trout). That being said, his chances aren’t zero and they are a lot better than the majority of players we have seen in a Brewers uniform during their mid-20’s throughout the history of the franchise, so let’s recognize that as well.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yelich is considered a HoFer at this point?

 

Good golly this really is a Brewer fan board!

 

I didn't flat call him a HoF. But his potential is there, he's not retired obviously and still playing. I mentioned Arcia as well. The thread title says former or current with a shot. When you have 10+years of playing ahead of you and showing off special ability, I'm going to give a nod that he has a shot, like Arcia. I don't list Shaw due to his age. Santana due to his defense who is young enough to accrue counting stats in his career.

 

After Arcia and Santana, Hader is the only one under 25. He's going to be an extreme longshot and you're talking as a RP HOF shot, not as a SP HOF shot because he's behind in the counting stats there.

[Boomer5]

To be a HoF you have to be considered one of the very best at your position for a sustainable period. Among many other considerations, statistical leadership and MVP awards, or at least top 5, really should be on the resume.

 

Maybe corner OF dWAR will become the top criteria but if you look at Yelichs career to date you see a good player but by no means a great one. Braun and Fielder by 2011 would have been on a HoF trajectory. Yount started his career 3 years before Yelich and had two MVP awards at two important positions. Yelich isn't on that level, not even close.

 

That doesn't mean that anyone thinks he is a bad player. But a 26 year old corner OF with no intriguing counting stats or power simply isn't in that conversation which is only reserved for the absolute elite. This being his 27 year aka the classic peak year I suppose he could enter the very fringe of the conversation but it would literally take a MVP caliber season.

[Outlander]

This thread is about players with a shot at the HOF. That is a typical internet overeaction to something that was never said. Nobody said he was a HOFer. It may be sad for the franchise but Yelich is up there for Brewers with potential for the HOF. In his first full 4 season he is averaging 162 hits a year. If he averages that over the next 15 he has over 3000 hits and a HOF. Sure, many things can happen over the next 15 years like Braun and Fielder but the reality is there are no current Brewers with a shot at the HOF if they retired today.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If the question is actually what former or current Brewer players have a legitimate shot of ever getting into the Hall of Fame? That list is probably Ted Simmons CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke. I think we're fooling ourselves if we think Ryan Braun ever has a chance of cracking bat list. Until the baseball writers fundamentally change the way they think about the hall Ryan Braun is not getting in. Also there is no veterans committee or anything else that's going to put him in because he wasn't good enough for long enough.

 

It's certainly fun to debate a guy like Yelich, but he definitely has to jump up and have a couple of dominant seasons and crack that top 5 MVP voting at least a few times, or get into some of the rarefied air of 3000 hits or something like that.

 

And just the fact that khris Davis was mentioned in a thread talking about the Hall of Fame makes my brain hurt.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm not understanding what you're saying I don't think. Are you saying defense isn't a strong enough part of a resume to warrant MVP consideration?

 

If so I'd cite Omar Vizquel, who got 37% in his first HOF vote. He's a decent shot to get in at some point. His offense was mediocre at very best.

 

No, quite the opposite. The idea that Braun is in Yount's class because of some of his gaudy hitting stats is offensive to me - pun intended. Braun is not even 2 tiers below Yount.

 

It reminds me of how so many basketball fans just equate ppgz with effectiveness without accounting for how much better the opponent's offense is (or isn't) because of that player - as if only the points you score count, and you don't have to worry about the points scored against you.

 

Braun doesn't have a chance IMO, nor should he.

[Outlander]

It's certainly fun to debate a guy like Yelich, but he definitely has to jump up and have a couple of dominant seasons and crack that top 5 MVP voting at least a few times, or get into some of the rarefied air of 3000 hits or something like that.

Using the Bill James projection system Yelich has around a 12% chance of reaching 3000 hits, which equates to about a 12% chance of reaching the HOF. Not great but probably the best chance of any position player former/current not already in the HOF.

[coolhandluke121]

Didn't ESPN predict the next hall-of-famer for each team? It was kind of pathetic for the Brewers, as every other team had at least one semi-realistic candidate. I could swear they picked Dubon for the Brewers.

 

Greinke and C.C. obviously would not go to the hall as Brewers, so they didn't count.

[coolhandluke121]

As for Yelich, I certainly think he has a much better chance than Braun. I suppose you could theoretically say Hader and Knebel have an outside chance, but I think there are indications that HOF is going to stop over-inflating the value of saves, as they bloody well should.

 

Yelich's counting stats should skyrocket in Miller Park, and his defense is a pretty big plus in LF. Defensive value is all relative to the other bats at your position, just like offensive value is affected a lot by position. You don't have to be a C, SS, or CF in order for your credentials to get a big boost from your defense.

 

ETA: Also, don't forget that OPS consistently undervalues OBP. That's especially important when you're comparing a guy who's played for a slugger-friendly team his whole career to a guy who's only been a Marlin until now. Braun is actually a bit of an underachiever when it comes to OBP, and would have helped his team more if he had been more patient at the plate like Yelich.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, Braun has fallen for the low outside slider just a bit too much his whole career. Lay off that a bit more and he takes more walks combined with getting more 'pitches to hit' than he did otherwise, would have given all those slash lines a noticeable improvement.

[MrTPlush]

As the first person to mention Yelich you can clearly see I mentioned him entering his prime and he could possibly see his play improve to get elite seasons on his resume. Ryan Braun didn’t hit major elite status until 2011.

 

All I was getting at was he has a really good start to his career and some elite seasons in his prime with longevity could definitely get him there. It says shot...not lock.

[coolhandluke121]

As the first person to mention Yelich you can clearly see I mentioned him entering his prime and he could possibly see his play improve to get elite seasons on his resume. Ryan Braun didn’t hit major elite status until 2011.

 

All I was getting at was he has a really good start to his career and some elite seasons in his prime with longevity could definitely get him there. It says shot...not lock.

 

Oh dear god, "Yelich" and "lock" should never be written in the same paragraph when discussing the HOF.

[The stache]

As the first person to mention Yelich you can clearly see I mentioned him entering his prime and he could possibly see his play improve to get elite seasons on his resume. Ryan Braun didn’t hit major elite status until 2011.

 

All I was getting at was he has a really good start to his career and some elite seasons in his prime with longevity could definitely get him there. It says shot...not lock.

 

Braun was third in the MVP his second season, albeit with "only" a 4.6 WAR. His third year, he had a 6.2 WAR. He was an elite player before 2011.

 

Say what you want, guys, but Braun is one of the premier power-speed guys in the last decade plus. If he rights the ship, and starts hitting, with six more stolen bases, he becomes a member of a very selective club. Players with lifetime averages of .300 or better, 300 home runs, and 200 stolen bases.

 

The list currently?

 

Hank Aaron

Willie Mays

Larry Walker

George Brett

 

That's some pretty good company.

 

And, again, Braun's Hall of Fame metrics....one of the four he's reached Hall of Fame level. Gray Ink (top 10 finishes), he's at 121, with the average HoFer at 144. A decent season or two (like the one he had in 2016), and he reaches that. The other two, Hall of Fame Standard, he's at 34, with the average HoFer at 50. Black Ink he's at 16, with the average HoFer at 27. I don't see that one increasing, as he won't likely lead the league in any more metrics. What he has was leading the league in hits, home runs, OPS and SLG. The point? He's not as far off as some of you might think.

 

He's got to stay healthy, though, and be productive. I think injury, more than the PED issue, is what's curtailed his chances thus far. That nerve issue in his thumb really hit him hard.

 

As for the next Brewer to make the Hall? Ted Simmons is my bet, though he'll go in as a Cardinal. He only played 665 games in Milwaukee. Simba was like one vote short of making it with the last Veterans Committee vote. He gets in eventually. Too good a player at that position not to.

[Eye Black]

Didn't ESPN predict the next hall-of-famer for each team? It was kind of pathetic for the Brewers, as every other team had at least one semi-realistic candidate. I could swear they picked Dubon for the Brewers.

Not sure if this is the same thing you are referring to, but MLB.com did that exercise earlier this off-season and it was discussed in a segment on MLB Network. Lewis Brinson was the player selected for the Brewers, and Christian Yelich was selected for the Marlins. The selections were a mixture of realistic future HoF candidates and complete stabs in the dark.

 

Here is the article: Who's the most likely Hall of Famer on each team's current roster?

[Outlander]

Bumping since Ted Simmons was elected to the Hall of Fame recently and will be inducted this summer. The extension of Yelich and his play since 2018 certainly increases the chances that he will be the next player to go in as a Brewer. Greinke has also increased his chances since the initial post in 2018, Sabathia is probably about the same. Aramis Ramirez will appear on the next ballot to be released in January 2021.

[MrTPlush]

Zack Greinke is already a lock. As far as CC, I like his chances...so he would be my current pick for next up.

[KeithStone53151]

Zack Greinke is already a lock. As far as CC, I like his chances...so he would be my current pick for next up.

 

It took me way too long to realize you were talking about Sabathia...at first I thought you were talking about Counsel and was wondering where I could get some of whatever you were having...

[bork]

I can't find the article now, but Braun predicted that Yelich will be the next Brewer in the HOF, since he knows he won't make it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Zack Greinke is already a lock. As far as CC, I like his chances...so he would be my current pick for next up.

 

It will be interesting to see what team Zack goes in for. He'll have spent more years with the Royals than any other and became the great pitcher he is with them but, I don't know, it just doesn't quite seem right to me. If Zack has any say in it I'm sure he'll chose the Angels because that's just the kind of guy he is.

[SeaBass]

Today I Learned: Greinke's legal name is Donald Zackary Greinke. I feel like I should have known his actual first name was Donald but apparently it wasn't mentioned in any news articles around the time the Brewers acquired him, or I missed those articles, but I know I would have done a lot of reading about him back then.

[MrTPlush]

Zack Greinke is already a lock. As far as CC, I like his chances...so he would be my current pick for next up.

 

It will be interesting to see what team Zack goes in for. He'll have spent more years with the Royals than any other and became the great pitcher he is with them but, I don't know, it just doesn't quite seem right to me. If Zack has any say in it I'm sure he'll chose the Angels because that's just the kind of guy he is.

 

Greinke is the kind of guy who would go in as his favorite childhood team even though he never played for them.

 

On another note I always assumed they would retire Braun’s number, but I suppose I don’t know the general consensus on that topic. Right now it is essentially guys in the HOF that they have retired. That being said Braun is far far above Brewer players that didn’t make the HOF. So not like there really is a good comp from Brewers history.

[The stache]

The 30 games he missed this past year aside, I'm still trying to figure out how Christian Yelich's last two years haven't even been worth a combined 15 WAR. He was the MVP last year leading the league in batting. He hits 3 points better, raises his OBP by 27 points, raises his SLG by a whopping 73 points-and this was the guy that led the NL in slugging last year, and he's only worth 7.1 WAR In 130 games? If he adds another 22-25 games, he's still only at an 8.3 at that rate. His defensive metrics aren't great, but they're certainly not terrible. And considering how ridiculous he was offensively, it just seems off to me. If you tell me a guy plays 130 games, leads his league in batting, has the best home rate en route to 40 + bombs, steals 30+ and has the highest stolen base success rate in the league, heads the league in OBP and OPS+, leads the Majors in SLG and OPS...how is he at only 7 wins? A 164 OPS+ is outstanding. A 179 is freaking fantastic.

 

He's averaging a home run every 13.3 AB the past two years, while stealing bases successfully 90% of the time he goes, leading the league in batting both seasons, and the top slugger in baseball not named Mike Trout.

 

He has two full seasons before age 30. He's looking at somewhere between 45 and 50 bWAR by age 30. I don't see him as the kind of guy that sees a rapid decline in skill set. He's not a terribly big guy that's going to put a lot of wear and tear on his body. If he "only" averages 4 WAR A season to 35, that's between 65-70 WAR. I expect he'll have a few seasons where he exceeds that. Putting him back in left will increase his defensive metrics.

 

I could easily see him with 75+ WAR by the time he retires. How high that number goes, I don't know. But Unless he suffers a major injury, or sees a drastic drop in production (not likely playing half his games at Mill....er, American Family Field), he's a pretty good bet to make it, isn't he? Especially if he improves his defense just slightly back in left. He doesn't need to be a plus defender, but don't let defense lower your overall value the way Braun's did.

[MrTPlush]

Kind of crazy to think about, but Braun fell off the cliff at age 29. He rebounded for good seasons at 30-31, but for the most part after that 2nd place finish he just wasn't much.

 

Yelich is pretty similar to Braun physically and prior to his drop off Braun was a fairly healthy guy. I don't think anyone expected Braun to turn into such a fragile guy. Yelich's dWAR could be a concern in the long run if he doesn't stay on the top of the league for 3+ more years. He already puts up negative dWAR so as he ages I am sure that trends much like Braun's did. He got into the league at a much younger age than most and he also hit major elite status sooner than a guy like Braun...so he has a head start.

 

If he puts up video game numbers another 2-4 years he will probably make the HOF regardless of how shaky he is at the end of the deal.