Former/Current Brewers with a shot at the HOF?

[The stache]

Braun was better at his best, but Cameron was much more consistently good over his career. Cameron has a career 50.7 WAR, Braun is at 40.1. WAR isn't the end all be all but it's a heck of a lot better than batting average.

 

This isnt even necessarily me saying I think Cameron has the better MVP case but I am saying they're a whole lot more comparable case wise than you seem to think.

 

Are you freaking kidding me? Cameron has been more consistently good over his career?

 

By Fangraphs

 

Cameron 50.7 WAR

Braun 40.1

 

By Baseball Reference

 

Cameron 46.7

Braun 45.3

 

Here's the difference in WAR

 

Cameron 1,955 games played

Braun 1,461 games played

 

The WAR difference is fungible if you believe BBR, which places a little more emphasis on offense. Their WAR figures are quite close. But Cameron played 500 more games!

 

Cameron was a much better fielder. Three Gold Gloves. But there's no comparison between he and Braun, offensively.

 

Braun is a five time Silver Slugger winner. He won an MVP, was an MVP runner up, and had a third place MVP finish. In seventeen seasons, Cameron received any kind of MVP votes twice; 16th in 2001, and 21st in 2006. Cameron made one All Star team. Braun, despite playing in one of the smallest markets in baseball, has been to the All Star Game six times, and clearly should have been in 2016 when he was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball with a .312 AVG.

 

And looking at the offensive numbers? Cameron has a career 106 OPS +, meaning he was 6% better than league average with the stick. Braun's career OPS + is 139, or 39% above league average.

 

Look at their Hall of Fame statistics.

 

Mike Cameron

 

Hall of Fame Statistics

Black Ink

Batting - 0, Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink

Batting - 11 (1415), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor

Batting - 13 (1106), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards

Batting - 24 (549), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS

Center Field (35th):

46.7 career WAR / 32.6 7yr-peak WAR / 39.6 JAWS

Average HOF CF (out of 19):

71.2 career WAR / 44.6 7yr-peak WAR / 57.9 JAWS

 

 

Ryan Braun

 

Hall of Fame Statistics

Black Ink

Batting - 16 (150), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink

Batting - 121 (162), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor

Batting - 114 (134), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards

Batting - 34 (250), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS

Left Field (26th):

45.3 career WAR / 39.2 7yr-peak WAR / 42.2 JAWS

Average HOF LF (out of 20):

65.4 career WAR / 41.6 7yr-peak WAR / 53.5 JAWS

 

Cameron is nowhere near any of the HoF metrics. Not even close. He doesn't even score on the black ink metric, as he never led the league in any offensive category. His 7 year JAWS peak was 32.6, where the average HoF center fielder was 44.6. Braun's 7 year peak is 39.2 where the average HoF left fielder's 7 year peak is 41.6. Very close. Braun has surpassed the Hall of Fame monitor. He's close on Gray ink, and should surpass it. He will get very close to the Hall of Fame Standard.

 

If Braun can stay healthy, which is a big if, I see no reason why he can't approach or surpass 60 WAR. He's shown early this season that he still has the long ball. Moving him to first, which I think will happen more as Thames fails to live up to our expectations, will only give him more playing time at a position that puts less wear and tear on his body. The bat speed is still there. The eye is still there. If his thumb issue is a thing of the past, I see no reason why he can't revert back to 2016 form where he hit .305 with 30 home runs.

 

Regardless, comparing him to Mike Cameron is just plain silly. Cameron was never anywhere near the player Ryan Braun has been.

[The stache]

Robin was never the hitter Braun is either. Robin is beloved by Brewers fans and I get it, but we are talking different eras. I’m sure Braun would have loved to jump to the majors at 18 and start collecting counting stats like Robin got to. And Robin’s OPS would be well over .800 without those first four years that drag that sucker down. Makes a huge difference. Different eras but Mike Cameron doesn’t belong in either of these twos sentences and that’s not a knock on Cameron, he’s just not in eithers league.

 

I think you might want to check Robin Yount's statistics again. Did he have the top-tier home run power that Braun had? No, but, then again, he was a shortstop, and later a center fielder in an era where eye popping home run totals were not commonplace, especially at those positions. Yount and Cal Ripken Jr were the exceptions to the norm at short (Alan Trammel had some power, too). The peak of Robin Yount's career was 1980-1989. He had more hits than anybody in baseball in the decade, 1,731. And he had a 135 OPS + during that span. Just remember, "power" is more than home runs.

 

Here are Robin's 162 game averages between 1980-'89:

 

.305 AVG, 108 runs scored, 194 hits, 38 double, 10 triples, 20 home runs, 92 RBI, 17 SB, slash line of .365/.485/.850.

 

And, again, that's in an era where the home run was at a premium. Yount's peak was 29 in his 1982 A.L. MVP season. During the decade, only two players came close to hitting 50 home runs in a season, Mark McGwire's 49 in 1987, and Andre Dawson's 49 the same season. Mike Schmidt hit 48 in 1980. There were only thirteen 40 home run seasons in the Majors in the entire decade. What about Braun? His prime was 2007 to 2012. Braun's peak was a National League-leading 41 in 2012. Between 2007 and 2012, only six years, there were twenty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors, including three 50 home run seasons. If you look at 2007 to 2016, there were forty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors.

 

Thirteen 40 home run seasons in the Majors between 1980 and 1989.

Forty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors between 2007 and 2016. More than three times as many.

 

The point? Context is everything in baseball. And Robin Yount the hitter is a lot closer to Ryan Braun than you might first glean looking at their stats.

 

Compare each player's peak OPS + seasons.

 

Braun

166 (2011)

158 (2012)

154 (2007)

146 (2009)

 

Yount

166 (1982)

152 (1989)

150 (1983)

133 (1988)

 

Braun's OPS + 2007 to 2017: 139. Braun the "superior hitter" was 39% above average for his first decade.

Yount's OPS + 1980 to 1989: 135. Yount was 35% above average for his peak decade, only 4% behind Braun.

 

I think it's highly inaccurate to say that Yount was never the hitter Ryan Braun is.

[brewcrewdue80]

Dont forget on Yount County Stadium vs Miller Park.

 

Yelich is a HOF future potential. So long as he plays long enough. Id expect a 1b move towards the end pf his career.

 

The only other current player Id even breathe HoF is Orlando Arcia. And before the scoffs, realize he's young and elite defensively at SS. He has a long ways to go offensively, but if he turns himself above .300 hitter and puts up consistent 15-20HRs with the defense, he'll be posting numerous 5-6WAR seasons during that time. His body is still maturing, what if he approaches 25HRS a year? I see Arcia as a guy who plays til he's 37-39 with his defense carrying him. Thats a long time to accumulate the stats.

 

Braun needs not only to play more than he has, but do so at a high level. He's fallen behind the curve. Playing 1b, what amount of WAR will he be accumulating? His offense may ding it down with 1b standards vs Corner OF standards.

 

Darkhorse by far are Knebel/Hader. If they take on elite RP/closer as their career and accumulate Saves for a long time what 600? Is that the threshold? Where I say darkhorse is because their K/9 may stick above 11? 12? Something carried that long, I'd assume puts them on notice.

 

Other than that the youth isnt there with long term potential to do something at their position to warrant thos kind of talk.

 

The Grienke/Sabathia takes, I just dont attach to Milwaukee when HOF talk. They wont be going in as Brewers.

[SenatorShriv]

I remember being a bartender back when Braun and Fielder were just about to break into the MLB. A guy was talking trash about the brewers sucking (he wasn’t wrong) but I tried to inject some optimism by saying there are two HOF caliber players about to join the roster. He called me crazy but I don’t regret those statements all these years later.

 

Prince didn’t have the longevity; which is obviously a bummer. I honestly think the hourly is still out on Braun.

 

In a hypothetical that ignores PED issues (bc they’re gonna have to get a LITTLE flexible on that) what kind of numbers does braun have to put up in the next 5 years to make it? Given reduced playing time are there some statistics that could isolate his amount of playing time vs others of the Same era to justify it? He’s clearly not going to make it on counting numbers alone so what does the path look like?

[pacopete4]

Well of course Braun passed Cameron on the all time hits list with his dinger last night.

[JohnBriggs12]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

[torts]

Aramis ranked all time among 3B:

Hits - 11

2B - 7

HR - 7

RBI - 6

 

In these categories, most everyone in front of him is already in the Hall of Fame except for Adrian Beltre. I would agree that Aramis does not feel like a HOF'er, nor am I saying that he should be. But he was one of the best offensive 3B of all time.

 

He played a really long time. That's a big reason he ranks so high. His peak and overall production(including defense) puts him severely behind HOF production.

 

Adrian Beltre has played 3 years longer (21) than Ramirez (18), and Rami also had a couple injury shortened seasons during his prime where Beltre has not. Just being healthy he'd be over 2500 career hits, not counting the fact that he's played 3 less years.. he could have had 3000 career hits if he played as long as Adrian has.

[FVBrewerFan]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

 

And Scooter Gennett.

[JimH5]

Braun's PED suspension and his conduct at the time will make it very hard for him. Plus, he's nearly 1,000 hits behind Gary Sheffield and more than 1,300 behind Rafael Palmeiro, and those guys have no real traction.

 

Braun hasn't even reached 160 hits in a season since his suspension. Transitioning to a part-time player isn't going to help him reach the counting thresholds.

 

I think the Wall of Honor and a plaque in the pavement are going to be the limits of his post-career awards.

[Surhoff5]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

 

Briggs I love what you bring to this board, but this has to be a complete troll job. Davis is already 30 and has put up under 10 career WAR. Guys like him will not age well either.

 

As a side note, I was watching the A's/Angels game the other night and Davis had two routine balls he went back on and both times, he dropped the ball. Both got called hits which was an absolute joke. Also, a ball was hit in the semi gap and the guy took second as he 9 hopped his throw to 2B.

 

I thought Keith Law's Twitter reaction was pretty funny: https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/980556483288092672

[torts]

Braun's PED suspension and his conduct at the time will make it very hard for him. Plus, he's nearly 1,000 hits behind Gary Sheffield and more than 1,300 behind Rafael Palmeiro, and those guys have no real traction.

 

Braun hasn't even reached 160 hits in a season since his suspension. Transitioning to a part-time player isn't going to help him reach the counting thresholds.

 

I think the Wall of Honor and a plaque in the pavement are going to be the limits of his post-career awards.

 

He better not get a statue before MOLITOR!

[adambr2]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

 

No, not even close.

 

People are really underrating Cameron's career here. What's being ignored is that defense is an enormous part of his resume. Defensive metrics aren't as solid as offensive, but he was one of the best. Braun was obviously a much better hitter, but defense has never been part of his argument.

 

When I tout his "consistency", I'm pointing to the fact that he was near or above a 4 WAR threshold for 9 out of his 12 seasons. Yes, he was extremely consistent, and he put up over 50 fWAR in his career. That's around 10 more than Braun, currently.

 

All that said, I was never arguing that Cameron is a HOF player. I don't think he is. What I was arguing is that he had at least a ballotable case, and being compared to him is a compliment, not an insult.

 

He was, in fact, on the ballot, but I believe dropped off with less than 5% of the vote. That's the territory I would expect Braun to be in if he retired today. Of course, if he rebounds to top 10 MVP vote caliber the next few years, that would obviously change.

 

I think to an extent we're letting the 2 huge HR in the first week cloud our judgment on how likely that really is, though. He got off to a very hot start last year too. But for the Brewers' sake I would love for him to be in that conversation 5 years after his retirement.

[tmwiese55]

Braun's PED suspension and his conduct at the time will make it very hard for him. Plus, he's nearly 1,000 hits behind Gary Sheffield and more than 1,300 behind Rafael Palmeiro, and those guys have no real traction.

 

Braun hasn't even reached 160 hits in a season since his suspension. Transitioning to a part-time player isn't going to help him reach the counting thresholds.

 

I think the Wall of Honor and a plaque in the pavement are going to be the limits of his post-career awards.

 

He better not get a statue before MOLITOR!

 

PEDs you're the devil. Coke abuse and you're still a beloved hero.

[torts]

Braun's PED suspension and his conduct at the time will make it very hard for him. Plus, he's nearly 1,000 hits behind Gary Sheffield and more than 1,300 behind Rafael Palmeiro, and those guys have no real traction.

 

Braun hasn't even reached 160 hits in a season since his suspension. Transitioning to a part-time player isn't going to help him reach the counting thresholds.

 

I think the Wall of Honor and a plaque in the pavement are going to be the limits of his post-career awards.

 

He better not get a statue before MOLITOR!

 

PEDs you're the devil. Coke abuse and you're still a beloved hero.

 

Speak for yourself, but i've never implied that, I love both players.

[JimH5]

I don't think Braun will get a statue..unless the Brewers win a pennant while he is here.

[tmwiese55]

Torts, yea sorry not meant to be directed to you specifically. Just the general notion of that out there. I'm with you, fine with both. People make mistakes and us average joes aren't perfect either.

[Outlander]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

Well considering Cameron had zero votes in 2017 you are probably right since he can't do worse. While I don't think Braun will ever make the HOF I do think he will be one of the few Brewers that hangs around on the ballot for a number of years. Not sure if Prince can get to 5% but maybe.

[pacopete4]

Robin was never the hitter Braun is either. Robin is beloved by Brewers fans and I get it, but we are talking different eras. I’m sure Braun would have loved to jump to the majors at 18 and start collecting counting stats like Robin got to. And Robin’s OPS would be well over .800 without those first four years that drag that sucker down. Makes a huge difference. Different eras but Mike Cameron doesn’t belong in either of these twos sentences and that’s not a knock on Cameron, he’s just not in eithers league.

 

I think you might want to check Robin Yount's statistics again. Did he have the top-tier home run power that Braun had? No, but, then again, he was a shortstop, and later a center fielder in an era where eye popping home run totals were not commonplace, especially at those positions. Yount and Cal Ripken Jr were the exceptions to the norm at short (Alan Trammel had some power, too). The peak of Robin Yount's career was 1980-1989. He had more hits than anybody in baseball in the decade, 1,731. And he had a 135 OPS + during that span. Just remember, "power" is more than home runs.

 

Here are Robin's 162 game averages between 1980-'89:

 

.305 AVG, 108 runs scored, 194 hits, 38 double, 10 triples, 20 home runs, 92 RBI, 17 SB, slash line of .365/.485/.850.

 

And, again, that's in an era where the home run was at a premium. Yount's peak was 29 in his 1982 A.L. MVP season. During the decade, only two players came close to hitting 50 home runs in a season, Mark McGwire's 49 in 1987, and Andre Dawson's 49 the same season. Mike Schmidt hit 48 in 1980. There were only thirteen 40 home run seasons in the Majors in the entire decade. What about Braun? His prime was 2007 to 2012. Braun's peak was a National League-leading 41 in 2012. Between 2007 and 2012, only six years, there were twenty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors, including three 50 home run seasons. If you look at 2007 to 2016, there were forty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors.

 

Thirteen 40 home run seasons in the Majors between 1980 and 1989.

Forty-two 40 home run seasons in the Majors between 2007 and 2016. More than three times as many.

 

The point? Context is everything in baseball. And Robin Yount the hitter is a lot closer to Ryan Braun than you might first glean looking at their stats.

 

Compare each player's peak OPS + seasons.

 

Braun

166 (2011)

158 (2012)

154 (2007)

146 (2009)

 

Yount

166 (1982)

152 (1989)

150 (1983)

133 (1988)

 

Braun's OPS + 2007 to 2017: 139. Braun the "superior hitter" was 39% above average for his first decade.

Yount's OPS + 1980 to 1989: 135. Yount was 35% above average for his peak decade, only 4% behind Braun.

 

I think it's highly inaccurate to say that Yount was never the hitter Ryan Braun is.

 

Yes, I agree with what you said. I shorted Robin a bit. I dug deeper into the numbers. Braun is in his 12th season so I took his first 11 years (age 23-33) and compared them to Robin's age 23-33 years (which was his prime) and here is what I got:

 

Here are Robin's 162 game averages between 23-33 years old:

 

Games: 145 At Bats: 560 AVG: .300 OBP: .357 SLG: .470 OPS: .828 OPS+: 129 R: 93.5 H: 171 2B: 24 3B: 8 HR: 16.5 RBI: 79 SB: 14.5

 

Here are Braun's 162 game averages between 23-33 years old:

 

Games: 132 At Bats: 513 AVG: .301 OBP: .364 SLG: .540 OPS: .904 OPS+: 139 R: 85.5 H: 155 2B: 31 3B: 4 HR: 27.5 RBI: 91 SB: 17.5

[djoctagone]

perhaps down the road, dave parker and willie randolph will be given consideration by the modern baseball era committee. parker certainly has a more impressive resume.

[adambr2]

Khris Davis will have a better case for HOF when all is said and done than Cameron.

Well considering Cameron had zero votes in 2017 you are probably right since he can't do worse. While I don't think Braun will ever make the HOF I do think he will be one of the few Brewers that hangs around on the ballot for a number of years. Not sure if Prince can get to 5% but maybe.

 

Sure you can, he could not be on the ballot, which he won't be (Davis).

[3and2Fastball]

I love the Brewers bias on this board, but in my opinion Braun has about a 1% chance at the HOF. To overcome the PED thing and the relatively pedestrian (by HOF standards) last few years, he'd need something like 5 straight years of 2011 numbers to pull it off.

 

And if he finished his career with 5 straight seasons of 2011 numbers, there'd be tons of suspicion by voters that he was on PED's.

 

So, yeah, pretty close to a zero percent chance for Braun.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, I'd say less than 1% for Braun. Things would have to drastically change with his health and production to even hand on the ballot more than year.

[RockCoCougars]

perhaps down the road, dave parker and willie randolph will be given consideration by the modern baseball era committee. parker certainly has a more impressive resume.

 

Parker is a good one. Not sure how the committee stands, but I'd say he is a stronger candidate than Simmons. His counting stats are better plus he might have been the best player in the game for a few years in the late 70s.

[JosephC]

Wow, I thought the numbers in the Braun/Yount comparison would be much further in favor of Braun. The fact that Yount's numbers were closer than I expected really makes me lean towards calling Yount the better hitter when factoring in the era of each of the players, the home park factor and Yount not being all roided up like Braun makes Robin the easy pick and that's before even getting to the fielding aspect.

[Boomer5]

Yelich is considered a HoFer at this point?

 

Good golly this really is a Brewer fan board!