Keston Hiura [Promoted to AA 5/31/18]

[FVBrewerFan]

And to clarify my point about the physical grind, Hiura only played 3 games as a defender in 2017, & only has 33 so far this season. His bat might be ready, but there's no way for me that I risk ruining his elbow by throwing him into the daily grind of defending at a middle infield position in the bigs.

 

He's 21 & this is his first real season as a pro. It's awesome that he's raking & living up to the most glowing scouting reports, but I think he needs more time to be ready for the full workload of MLB.

 

All of that makes sense, but we have no idea if that's true. The coaches, medical staff, etc. have all that information and will have a much better idea if he can handle the workload or not.

 

I think sometimes we make too much of that stuff, it's not like he's working in a coal mine, he's playing 2B. Maybe the injury is behind him completely, we don't know.

 

That said, yes, no way they force him up if he's physically not ready and/or his glove isn't ready.

[adambr2]

I don't think they would be promoting Hiura to the 40 man unless they intended to carry him on the 25 most of the rest of 2018.

 

But if we need to worry about Hiura being out of options in 2021, his bat didn't come along as well as we'd hoped.

[statman0007]

In the scenario where Hiura gets called up this year, it would be interesting to see if he gets promoted to AAA first or comes straight to Milwaukee from Biloxi. The Brewers haven't had a problem promoting from AA in the past, but if I remember correctly it has usually been pitchers. To me, a .950 OPS at AA is almost more impressive than whatever he would do in Colorado. Plus, than you continue to let Orf play 2B in AAA. I don't think the organization is going to let Nate Orf get in the way of doing whatever they think is best for Hiura, but it would be nice not to displace a guy if you don't have to.

[TooLiveBrew]

And to clarify my point about the physical grind, Hiura only played 3 games as a defender in 2017, & only has 33 so far this season. His bat might be ready, but there's no way for me that I risk ruining his elbow by throwing him into the daily grind of defending at a middle infield position in the bigs.

 

He's 21 & this is his first real season as a pro. It's awesome that he's raking & living up to the most glowing scouting reports, but I think he needs more time to be ready for the full workload of MLB.

 

Is there anything besides the amount of game difference that you think adds to the workload on his arm? I kind of feel like they would be able to monitor and keep track of his arm best at the major league level. More built in off days with Villar and Hernan to keep him going further into the season. Having access to the big league staff on a daily basis would only help in his arm rehab/strengthening program too.

 

There are a lot of factors that play into all this but I'm of the opinion we are going to be seeing Hiura starting at 2B very soon.

Fair points from you & FVBrewerFan. My thinking was more games, higher stress games, better opposition. In AA if he doesn't make a play because he's cautious with his arm, it's not a big deal. But with the weight of each game in a big-league pennant race, my worry is he'd be pushing himself to the limit each & every start. He hasn't even played 40 pro games at 2B yet.

 

But very true he'd be under the close watch of the training staff, & have guys like Villar/Sogard/Saladino to give him days off.

 

It's less that I expect him to cave to the physical grind, it's more that we haven't even seen if his elbow can hold up to playing 2B everyday in the minors yet. Then there's the mental adjustment he'd need to make as well.

 

I acknowledge that I might be way wrong, but I just see a healthy amount of risk in calling him up to play everyday this season. I'm not happy with the black hole of offense from our MIF, but I'd rather find another Neil Walker than push all my chips in with Hiura so soon.

[bork]

The Brewers haven't had a problem promoting from AA in the past, but if I remember correctly it has usually been pitchers.

 

Lucroy is the one bat I seem to recall coming straight from AA, but that was more due to need.

[buckybrewer232]

The Brewers have gotten a collective OPS of .677 from 2nd base this season, and the defense hasn't been that great either. If Hiura's defense is at least passable at this moment, he will be an upgrade at the position as I think he could produce at least something like a .725 OPS at the big league level.

 

I'm not really worried that this would be rushing him too fast. He wouldn't have to play everyday- Villar, Miller, and Perez could all take some starts at 2nd base here and there. Also, this team has the best record in the NL, so in my opinion I'm not concerned about starting service time or anything like that. This franchise has been to the playoffs twice in the past 30 years and they are in a pretty good position to win this year.

[MrTPlush]

A .725 OPS is not going to be an upgrade at 2B. First of all Villar has been fine on defense...probably grading out slightly above average. Secondly I am pretty confident Villar can post a .725 or close to it OPS over the course of the season. If not his speed and better defense would close to gap.

 

Unless Hiura comes up and smacks around to a .800+ OPS his impact would be pretty questionable. With Orlando Arcia needing to be replaced I doubt we add such a lackluster fielder in Hiura to the mix. I mean, Miller and Hiura up the middle? Yikes.

 

Hiura gets vastly overhyped in my opinion. His career BABIP is north of .400 and at AA is .432. Put that at a more realistic level and add his unimpressive on base skills you can imagine his numbers would drop like a rock.

 

It’s impossible to know if he would be one of those guys to mash from day 1, but most don’t. That means anyone hoping Hiura is a savior for one offensive hole on our offense is likely sadly mistaken.

[cmow]

Hiura gets vastly overhyped in my opinion. His career BABIP is north of .400 and at AA is .432. Put that at a more realistic level and add his unimpressive on base skills you can imagine his numbers would drop like a rock.

 

When you hit .350 and have an over .400 OBP, it's a bit nitpicking to to say you have unimpressive on-base skills, no?

I know the BB% is low, and yes, it's of course, he can't maintain a .432 OPB in MLB. But don't count it against him. It's not his fault he's raking in AA. I think he's still a .300 hitter in MLB which is deserving of hype.

[And That]

Hiura has elite bat speed and above average bat control. If anything, I think he's under-hyped at the national level. Not that level of hype matters whatsoever.

 

I agree it's somewhat strange to say someone with a career .400 OBP has "unimpressive on base skills." If you're hitting everything in sight, why attempt to draw walks? I would be worried if he were hitting .250 with a 4.3% walk rate, but at .350? Nah. All other things being equal, I'd rather have a guy hitting .350 with a .400 OBP than a guy hitting .250 with a .400 OBP.

[adambr2]

Villar just isn't that good and isn't going to ever give you that shot in the arm the offense needs. He isn't a disaster but he isn't someone you want starting.

 

This year he had an opportunity to show whether 2016 or 2017 was the aberration. We have our answer. His stats are almost identical in every way to 2017.

[homer]

I think if he was hitting nothing but singles there might some validity to the overhyped theory but he's a doubles machine. And as for walk rate, I think it's about the same as Braun's was for the first 2 - 3 seasons of his career.

[And That]

Even if he's just hitting singles, a single is a good deal more valuable than a walk.

[MrTPlush]

I was referring to his walk rate...which isn’t very impressive. I was more so assuming with a normal BABIP his OBP skills aren’t that’s great. So when his BABIP takes a tumble his average will follow suit. If he hits .270 his OBP will float around .320...not awful, but certainly not really fixing our offenseive problems. Depending on how bad the defense is right now it might not even really be an improvement.

 

He would probably have to hit near .300 to really be a notable improvement over Villar. Not saying it isn’t possible, but pretty generous to assume that will happen from the get go.

 

Not saying I don’t like Hiura. I think he is the best hitter we have produced in a long time and much deserving of his prospect ranking. However a lot of people think he is going to be a huge savior for the offense and a big improvement over Villar this year. The hype might not match the production.

 

Could you make an argument Hiura’s assumed floor from the get go is about what Villar is right now...therefor little risk? Yah, that’s a legitimate argument.

[BuckyBrewer61]

It's probably somewhere in the thread and I apologize for not searching through the 10 pages...

 

How is Hiura doing defensively? Any issues with his injury? Is he good/serviceable/terrible/screaming in pain with every throw?

[And That]

I was referring to his walk rate...which isn’t very impressive.

But why take walks when everything you're hitting is falling in? I think it sometimes gets lost in staring at BB% or the gap between AVG and OBP, but plate discipline is not the same thing as the ability to take walks. Plate discipline is both about not swinging at pitches you can't hit, and swinging at pitches you can hit. If he's being thrown a lot of pitches he feels he can hit, why not swing at them?

 

As for the walks, at 507 PAs, I don't think he has a large enough professional body of work to say what his equilibrium walk rate will be. My guess is that it turns out to be a lot higher than 4% or 6%.

 

Edit: This explains what I mean. We don't yet know (if we ever will) what the "Pareto optimal" level for Hiura is as a hitter. If he optimizes his talents, it might mean 7% walk rate. Or it might mean 12%. He could plausibly be successful with either one.

[And That]

It's probably somewhere in the thread and I apologize for not searching through the 10 pages...

 

How is Hiura doing defensively? Any issues with his injury? Is he good/serviceable/terrible/screaming in pain with every throw?

From what I've seen, his arm is adequate and accurate. I haven't noticed any issues on his throws. He's probably never going to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender, but he's made his fair share of nice plays this year. He just needs reps.

[clancyphile]

Let him get the reps in Milwaukee and boost the offense.

[Jenkins5]

His babip should usually be above average & that should factor in. Look at his hot chart. He is professional hitter who can find holes all over the field. When hitters have that ability they will maintain high babip. Walk rate does surprise me a bit but at same time, with bat ball skills & ability to go with any pitch all over, that expands his zone. He has shown to be more advanced than the pitching at every level so wonder if he will take more against better pitchers who aren’t giving him many good pitches he likes to hit.

 

It’s nice he’s around that 20% K mark but does need to walk more than 4% he should be around 10% as an elite bat & obp guy.

[FVBrewerFan]

Good points on both sides, but it may not matter. At some point, they may need to take the gamble and bring him up. They simply need bats, and Hiura COULD add instant offense. Sometimes when you're going for it, you need to gamble a bit.

 

They could pick up a bat in a trade, of course, but I think the option of bringing Hiura up will continue to be an option they discuss on a regular basis these days.

[igor67]

Very high average hitters have gotten rather rare in MLB, and so far Hiura is showing he might fit in that category. Offensively his stat line look very similar to Derek Jeter with modest walks and power (though very good for a SS) to go with that. Jeter may have been over rated to an extent, but he's still a very legit HOFer and is useful as a comparison for the purposes of showing how good a hitter can be in that high contact style. Primarily because there is enough power there that it's not just the slap it on the ground and get infield hits.

[Brewer Fever]

Braun also had four minor league seasons and over 800 plate appearances. Keston has about 500. Just for comparison.

 

Ryan Braun was in the majors for good in just under 2 years after being drafted. He was drafted in June 2005 and made his MLB debut on May 25, 2007. If Keston follows the same timeline he'll be in Milwaukee just prior to next year's draft.

 

That being said, the 2006 Milwaukee Brewers had zero postseason aspirations and thus no need to get Braun up to help win games. The 2018 Milwaukee Brewers are just a little bit different and have a glaring hole at 2B.

[JohnBriggs12]

Christian Yelich was drafted out of high school in 2010. He had a very brief exposure to pro ball that summer, then at 19, he hit .312 in a full season of A ball in what would have been between his freshman and sophomore years of high school. The following year he spent an entire year in high A ball with even greater success. In what would have been his draft year had he played in college, 2013, he finished the season batting .288 in 62 games with the Marlins.

 

Hiura was considered the most advanced bat in the 2017 draft, and he's done nothing since to refute that compiling a .345/.400/.563 slash line in his first 114 games as a pro over 3 levels.

 

In short, his credentials as a hitter are comparable to where Yelich stood in 2013. Now with a fully healthy roster, and had Santana and especially Arcia produced at the level they did last year, they could absorb the lesser production from 2B. But they can't. He needs to in Milwaukee playing. It's a gamble that needs to be taken.

[brewmann04]

I think this team will bring up Hiura at some point his bat is to good and the crew could use the offense.

[pacopete4]

The first “gamble” should be to keep Miller in at shortstop. If the D is okay, his bat will be a big spark to that position.

 

The second “gamble” should be handing the catching duties off to Nottingham after the all star break and seeing if he can be a spark at that position.

 

And come mid-August if these other two things aren’t doing enough for the offense, the third “gamble” should be bringing up Hiura if Villar is still struggling to hit over a .700 OPS. And this should really only happen if Hiura continues to scorch minor league pitching and playing adequate defense.

[yfinn6]

Hiura gets vastly overhyped in my opinion. His career BABIP is north of .400 and at AA is .432. Put that at a more realistic level and add his unimpressive on base skills you can imagine his numbers would drop like a rock.

 

 

This is my favorite sentence. "Vastly" overhyped.