Keston Hiura [Promoted to AA 5/31/18]

[Fear The Chorizo]

I can't wait to see Hiura in Milwaukee, but they should probably leave him in the minors this season unless injuries/poor performance crater their MLB 2B production. Villar has acclimated himself well there since he was losing playing time to Sogard for no reason, and Perez is serviceable especially when he's swinging the bat well. I think the Brewers will focus on upgrading other positions (SS, SP, potentially C) if they want to make a deadline splash - and I really hope they don't use Hiura in a trade to make that happen.

 

IMO, Hiura should be an early season 2019 callup provided he's in good health and there's nothing left for him to prove in the minor leagues - we have to remember he's still played less than a full season of professional ball at this point. It's great he's playing everyday at 2B to get him those defensive reps and it's helping to calm his old arm concerns, but he does need to prove that the daily grind isn't an issue for it - there isn't a better place than Biloxi for that to happen right now in the Brewer organization, so I'm glad he's there.

 

Hiura's ceiling at the MLB level could be Chase Utley in his prime, when he was consistently producing 7-8 WAR seasons. For context, Scooter Gennett's 2017 was a 2.4 WAR season. I don't think Hiura has quite the power Utley once had and would be surprised if he's ever close defensively, but I see him as a higher average hitter that will hit 20-25 HR and have plenty of doubles mixed in. There may be a decent amount of good 2B options routinely available, but the difference between decent and great offense at that position is incredibly valuable - particularly when you've got a shot at getting great production for pre-arbitration prices.

[homer]

It would not suprise me to see Hiura a September call up

I will be very surprised if the Brewers call up Keston Hiura this September.

 

It would start his service time clock potentially risking one less year of team control if he sticks in the majors the following season.

 

It would also force the Brewers to unnecessarily add Hiura to the 40-man roster which is already facing many tough decisions about which players to either add or risk losing in the upcoming Rule 5 draft including... Jake Gatewood, Troy Stokes Jr., Luis Ortiz, Trey Supak, Bubba Derby, Kodi Medeiros, Cody Ponce, Phil Bickford, Nate Kirby, Quintin Torres-Costa, Jon Olczak, Jon Perrin, Nate Griep, Devin Williams, Nate Orf, Gilbert Lara, etc. Some of those players will inevitably be traded this deadline, but still some tough decisions likely ahead.

 

I thought Sept call ups did not affect the arby clock? Maybe it's changed.

[And That]

I thought Sept call ups did not affect the arby clock? Maybe it's changed.

Service time is service time regardless of the month.

[homer]

I thought Sept call ups did not affect the arby clock? Maybe it's changed.

Service time is service time regardless of the month.

 

 

OK, not sure where I got that from. Maybe confusing things with guys signing major league deals back in the day.

[cmow]

So the upcoming the Rule 5 roster crunch sounds like a good reason to wait on adding Hiura, but at the same time, with 16 or more names listed by Eye Black -- well, anyway you cut it, we are going to have some good names exposed to the rule 5 draft, right? How many roster spots do we think Stearns is going to want to hold open and how much does it really benefit us to try to protect 4 guys vs 6 vs 8 etc....

[jerichoholicninja]

I thought Sept call ups did not affect the arby clock? Maybe it's changed.

Service time is service time regardless of the month.

 

 

OK, not sure where I got that from. Maybe confusing things with guys signing major league deals back in the day.

 

I thought that too. Looked it up:

 

How do September callups affect rookie eligibility?

In order for a player to be eligible for a Rookie of the Year Award in 2017, he must be within certain thresholds at the start of next season. First, he must not have reached 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Majors. Second, he must not have spent 45 days on an active Major League -- except during post-Sept. 1 periods of roster expansion.

 

So the key thing to remember when prospects are called up this month is that while September at-bats and innings do count against rookie eligibility, days on the roster do not. In other words, if a prospect spends most of the final month riding the bench in the Majors, it's not going to prevent him from being eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award next season. For example, Yankees phenom Gary Sanchez was called up on Aug. 3, and because September days don't count for rookie eligibiliy, he will fall short of the 45-day threshold. However, he already has 99 at-bats and will almost certainly surpass 130 ABs before the end of the season, which means he will not be eligible for the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2017 (he is, of course, eligible for it this year).

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/september-callups-and-roster-rules-explained/c-198674756

 

Looks like September service time doesn't count toward your rookie eligibility.

[Eye Black]

Looks like September service time doesn't count toward your rookie eligibility.

Yes, so he would remain eligible to win the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, but he would still accrue 30 days of service time. The important aspect is that a September call up would mean that instead of the Brewers being able to bring him up in late-April 2019 and maintain an extra year of team control they would have to wait until the end of May 2019 to call him up in order to not risk losing that extra year. Another way to put it is you don’t want him to have 172+ days of service time at the end of the 2019 season. Any days he plays in 2018 will likely result in less days he would play in 2019. I guess it’s always possible they don’t try to manipulate his service time and just give up the extra year of control, but I think that’s unlikely.

[jerichoholicninja]

Looks like September service time doesn't count toward your rookie eligibility.

Yes, so he would remain eligible to win the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, but he would still accrue 30 days of service time. The important aspect is that a September call up would mean that instead of the Brewers being able to bring him up in late-April 2019 and maintain an extra year of team control they would have to wait until the end of May 2019 to call him up in order to not risk losing that extra year. Another way to put it is you don’t want him to have 172+ days of service time at the end of the 2019 season. Any days he plays in 2018 will likely result in less days he would play in 2019. I guess it’s always possible they don’t try to manipulate his service time and just give up the extra year of control, but I think that’s unlikely.

 

Both Beloxi and Colorado Springs end their season's on September 3. Don't know where they stand for playoffs but if he stays down for that, we're looking at only about 20 days or less of service time in 2018.

[Outlander]

Keston Hiura has gone from 48 to 32 in the latest MLB Pipeline top 100.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018

[KeithStone53151]

Keston Hiura has gone from 48 to 32 in the latest MLB Pipeline top 100.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018

 

I don't think they quite did him justice. Maybe they are looking for a bit more track record, but he's a better prospect than most of the names outside the top 10. Heck there are 3 pitchers that are out for the season with injuries ahead of him...and of course there's a significant chance they don't come back the same from the injuries.

 

On a side note, why aren't the Astros trying Kyle Tucker at 1b? Is that a Khris Davis situation where he just sucks there? If he worked out at 1b temporarily, that fills a glaring hole in not only adding production at 1b...but adding balance with a LH bat.

[adambr2]

Keston Hiura has gone from 48 to 32 in the latest MLB Pipeline top 100.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018

 

I don't think they quite did him justice. Maybe they are looking for a bit more track record, but he's a better prospect than most of the names outside the top 10. Heck there are 3 pitchers that are out for the season with injuries ahead of him...and of course there's a significant chance they don't come back the same from the injuries.

 

On a side note, why aren't the Astros trying Kyle Tucker at 1b? Is that a Khris Davis situation where he just sucks there? If he worked out at 1b temporarily, that fills a glaring hole in not only adding production at 1b...but adding balance with a LH bat.

 

I haven't went over it in detail but at first glance it seems like a really lazy update. They basically skyrocketed a few big names like Soto and little else. Hiura went up a couple spots where he almost was anyway after all the graduations, and Burnes basically stood pat at #60. To not have Freddy Peralta as a top 100 is just inattention. There's no way you can convince me he's not a top 100 with his AAA numbers, stuff, and 3 big league starts if he's got a Yankees or Red Sox jersey on.

[YelichPosse]

Speaking of plugging holes, upgrading positions, the offence, etc....

 

Hiura has continued to show he is indeed a professional hitter. Has seen increased 2B time. Doesn't look *horrible* there.....

 

Do you call him up, give him 2B. Move Villar to backup 2b/SS. Jettison Sogard finally.... and consider the move a big upgrade?

 

This will cost no trade chips, and the impact may be Braun - call up-esque. What do you guys think is the reality of this? No way?

[adambr2]

I'd put it at 25% right now. The longer we stay in contention, the longer he continues to rake, and the worse Villar does, the more likely it gets.

 

Still think most likely mid 2019. But 25% is a lot higher than I would have put it back in the spring.

[JohnBriggs12]

He certainly won't finish his season in AA. I expect them to bump him up to AAA in early August. I wouldn't rule out a call to the majors at any time though. The offense is so weak beyond the 5th spot in the order, they may decide to roll the dice. Personally, having seen him this spring in Arizona, I think he's up to the task. He's a very, very mature hitter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think he's either called up during the stretch this year, or used as the centerpiece in a deal for a young starter with several years of control remaining. He is certainly doing a great job of increasing his value in a trade situation. Would be nice to get him up to Colorado Springs to increase those offensive numbers even more.

[KeithStone53151]

He certainly won't finish his season in AA. I expect them to bump him up to AAA in early August. I wouldn't rule out a call to the majors at any time though. The offense is so weak beyond the 5th spot in the order, they may decide to roll the dice. Personally, having seen him this spring in Arizona, I think he's up to the task. He's a very, very mature hitter.

 

I think he's absolutely ready for AAA, but I could see him sticking in AA as Biloxi is likely to make the playoffs I believe. Plus, we have a good group of position players in AA right now.

 

I honestly don't think it matters much where he plays. The bat is MLB ready. His time in the minor leagues is more about reps at 2b and service time than anything else.

[pacopete4]

Couldn't find the spray chart myself but wanted to share because like the twitter account says, this is a thing of beauty.

Keston Hiura Spray Chart - All 94 Hits

[Greenleaf1]

Less than a month at AA but doesn't really look like the new level has slowed down his bat at all other than only one homer but not sure how many games it takes for power numbers to stabilize so it could just be noise in the small sample.

 

I was more or less hoping he'd get a AA callup in June and a AAA tryout in August. At the end of August, they could call him up for a Major League tryout or they could send him back down to Biloxi for the playoffs.

 

It'll be interesting to see how 2B goes the rest of the year. If it's an area of extreme need to start next year, it wouldn't surprise me if they ignore Super 2 and just call him up after a few weeks into 2019.

[KeithStone53151]

Less than a month at AA but doesn't really look like the new level has slowed down his bat at all other than only one homer but not sure how many games it takes for power numbers to stabilize so it could just be noise in the small sample.

 

I was more or less hoping he'd get a AA callup in June and a AAA tryout in August. At the end of August, they could call him up for a Major League tryout or they could send him back down to Biloxi for the playoffs.

 

It'll be interesting to see how 2B goes the rest of the year. If it's an area of extreme need to start next year, it wouldn't surprise me if they ignore Super 2 and just call him up after a few weeks into 2019.

 

One thing about AA, at least Biloxi's home park, wind coming off the ocean is blowing in from RF...and that's fairly common. That's part of why you tend to see suppressed scores out of AA, and sometimes you'll see significant home/road splits in AA. I went to a game that Jungmann was starting a couple years ago. In any other park he probably gives up 8-10 runs but the wind kept in so many deep fly balls. Obviously this is going to impact LH power more, but as we've seen from the spray chart Hiura goes oppo quite a bit.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd like to see him get through the physical grind of full-season ball in the minors before handing him a starting MLB role. And I agree a May or June callup in 2019 is the most likely path to him taking over as the full time guy at 2B.

 

I do think his hit tool is just about ready, & I'd love to see him called up in September if we're still contending. He'd be a great weapon for PH situations.

[rickh150]

I'd like to see him get through the physical grind of full-season ball in the minors before handing him a starting MLB role. And I agree a May or June callup in 2019 is the most likely path to him taking over as the full time guy at 2B.

 

I do think his hit tool is just about ready, & I'd love to see him called up in September if we're still contending. He'd be a great weapon for PH situations.

 

If we called up Braun earlier in 2007, we make the playoffs. His stats those 4 and a half months were nuts. If this is the next Braun like bat, call him up.

[djoctagone]

If they called up hiura for one game, would it count anything against his clock

IF not, I would call him up for that doubleheader,

and september, for sure

IT doesnt matter if he incapable of playing defense.

Just him as a pinch hitter

Yes it would count as service time. And you need to be on the 40 man roster before you can be called up.

The 40 man roster sits at 39 right now. If Shaw has to be DL'd, I give Hiura a look, and not in the 8th spot in the order either.

were hiura's contract selected, the club would also have to consider that if they optioned hiura for more than 20 days in 2018, he'd burn his first of three options.

[pacopete4]

I'd like to see him get through the physical grind of full-season ball in the minors before handing him a starting MLB role. And I agree a May or June callup in 2019 is the most likely path to him taking over as the full time guy at 2B.

 

I do think his hit tool is just about ready, & I'd love to see him called up in September if we're still contending. He'd be a great weapon for PH situations.

 

If we called up Braun earlier in 2007, we make the playoffs. His stats those 4 and a half months were nuts. If this is the next Braun like bat, call him up.

 

Braun also had four minor league seasons and over 800 plate appearances. Keston has about 500. Just for comparison.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd like to see him get through the physical grind of full-season ball in the minors before handing him a starting MLB role. And I agree a May or June callup in 2019 is the most likely path to him taking over as the full time guy at 2B.

 

I do think his hit tool is just about ready, & I'd love to see him called up in September if we're still contending. He'd be a great weapon for PH situations.

 

If we called up Braun earlier in 2007, we make the playoffs. His stats those 4 and a half months were nuts. If this is the next Braun like bat, call him up.

 

Braun also had four minor league seasons and over 800 plate appearances. Keston has about 500. Just for comparison.

And to clarify my point about the physical grind, Hiura only played 3 games as a defender in 2017, & only has 33 so far this season. His bat might be ready, but there's no way for me that I risk ruining his elbow by throwing him into the daily grind of defending at a middle infield position in the bigs.

 

He's 21 & this is his first real season as a pro. It's awesome that he's raking & living up to the most glowing scouting reports, but I think he needs more time to be ready for the full workload of MLB.

[amt2138]

And to clarify my point about the physical grind, Hiura only played 3 games as a defender in 2017, & only has 33 so far this season. His bat might be ready, but there's no way for me that I risk ruining his elbow by throwing him into the daily grind of defending at a middle infield position in the bigs.

 

He's 21 & this is his first real season as a pro. It's awesome that he's raking & living up to the most glowing scouting reports, but I think he needs more time to be ready for the full workload of MLB.

 

Is there anything besides the amount of game difference that you think adds to the workload on his arm? I kind of feel like they would be able to monitor and keep track of his arm best at the major league level. More built in off days with Villar and Hernan to keep him going further into the season. Having access to the big league staff on a daily basis would only help in his arm rehab/strengthening program too.

 

There are a lot of factors that play into all this but I'm of the opinion we are going to be seeing Hiura starting at 2B very soon.