Any news on Rickie??

[steady19]

Is there anything new in regards to how long its going to take to get him signed? I read that they weren't even talking until this week, so what the big hold up. Wouldn't they want to get this wrapped up as soon as possible so he can start playing somewhere. Do we even know his asking price yet?

[filthyfrog]

I think the Brewers are waiting for Tampa Bay to sign Delmon Young, so that they can work out a deal worth slightly less than what Young gets. If they take too long, however, maybe the Brewers and Rickie will get gutsy and ink a deal anyway.

[deeswan]

I think the Brewers are waiting for Tampa Bay to sign Delmon Young

 

I would guess that Rickie's agent is waiting more than the Brewers are. If it was up to Milwaukee they would get him signed right now. Rickie's agent won't want to leave any money on the table, so he'll want to wait and see what Tampa does to set the market.

[SoCalBrewfan]

They're required to send a written offer within ten days or something similar (that's the loophole that got Travis Lee to Arizona for $10M)...I'm sure each of the two sides have a good idea what the other has in mind. Weeks' agent will be talking about B.J. Upton and his $4.6M at #2 overall last year, maybe will start with a request for $5M or more. The Brewers will be starting quite a bit below that...given the commish's dictates about bonuses, maybe in the $3M range? If / when Young signs that will push things towards one end or the other. In the end I think everyone knows he's likely to get about what Bullington got last year, $4M, so I think it's not going to drag on too long...JMHO of course.

[danzig6677]

You would think if the offers we make are in the right range Weeks wouldnt fight for a long time to get an extra few hundred grand.The sooner he gets playing the sooner he can get better and reach the bigs where the real money is.

[Pudster13]

I'm not sure who runs this site or if it can load video clips, but if anyone is interested I have behind the scenes video footage of Rickie Weeks Miller Park BP from last Saturday. I work at Miller Park and got to shoot about a half hour of him taking BP, fielding grounders at 2B and SS, and posing for pictures.

 

My email is- muellercraig@hotmail.com

[maisel4me]

Hi Pudster, I would be very interested in the video if it can be made available on the site, but until then, what were your impressions of the BP?

[colbyjack]

I'd love to get a copy of that video Pudster. I'll try to remember to drop you an email within the next couple of days.

 

As for Weeks, I don't think this has been mentioned, but Jim Powell had Drew Olson & Adam McCalvvy on the pre-game show tonight talking about the Brewers' future in general. Much of the discussion was focused on Rickie Weeks & what he can alone add to the organization. I believe Drew Olson noted that he was receiving a lot of emails from people familiar with Rickie urging the Brewers & their fans to be patient with Weeks, noting how raw he was & how he likely would need more development time in the minors than many to most are projecting him to need. Basically, when & if he does sign, don't look for him in Huntsville anytime soon. I could see him starting in Beloit, and possibly being there again next year depending on when he signs & how much successs he has.

 

And this goes back to the pre-draft rankings from here & elsewhere. As exciting as Weeks' offensive potential can be, it's important to realize that he's not as polished of a player as most people assume he is coming from the college ranks.

 

That doesn't mean that he's not a good prospect, but as always it's important to keep perspective on the situation.

[igor67]

But Colby he was the ultimate Beane pick how could he not be polished http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif . BP's arrogance on the subject of college players is humorous and down right silly. I bet Jack Z is just waiting for everyone but him and the Braves to go to all college players so he gets a first shot at the kids. When someone shows me some data that your better off drafting pure college players especially in the later rounds let me know.

[tlpc4]

For all the Beane loving that has gone on around MLB it is interesting to break down their lineup.

 

Off the top of my head they have about 4 home grown position players and by far their two best are High School drafted players. They hit big with 3 college pitchers, but the rest are mostly trades and free agents.

 

Then you hear a lot about A's budget draft choices. That is what got the Brewers in trouble. I mentioned in another thread they only had one player on the BA top 100.

 

It will be interesting to see how Beane's tenure looks 5 years from now.

[igor67]

Well ultimately in 5 years Beane will be rebuilding again if he's still with the club. Sooner or later the money is going to catch-up to him and those 3 pitchers aren't going to be around. Despite all the draft picks and low risk the limited draft budget is going to erode the farm system of the top tier star players he needs to regenerate the team. Combined with the normal ebb and flow of teams and he'll be on the downswing. That doesn't really take away from what he's done, because you need to have a pretty large budget to be able to sustain success. He'll also be getting squeezed more on the margins as many of his strategies are co-opted by other teams and he has less of an intellectual advantage.

It's likely though that he will inevitably be judged on whether or not he delivers in the post season, which isn't entirely fair but it is life.

[ItsCotter]

With every poster buzzing over how much Weeks will sign for,what's the scoop on Gwynn?And will he receive as much as our 2nd rounder (Murray?) last year?

[Al the Thinking Man]

I see nothing wrong with "budget" picks at all. They are a way to get players you like in your organization for far less than the standard rate. However, if you're just doing it to save money, and admit you are drafting an inferior quality of player, that's just more guys you will have to find in other ways...trades, FA's, minor league FA's, etc.

 

If you're a team like the A's, should you spend $9 million to sign 20-25 draft picks, or draft "budget" guys and spend $5-6 mil more on ML payroll to try and win now? Tough question, with no easy answer.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Cotter, here's something I posted last week that gives a sense of what last year's bonuses were for our draftees...

 

Other relevant signing bonuses from last year:

 

#2 overall: $4.6M

Picks #41/42/43: around $900K (I left out 39 and 40 who were budget choices by A's and Reds.)

Picks #100 - 103: around $400K (our guy, from PR, might get less?)

Picks #130-133: around $225K

6th/7th rounders: 100 to 200 K, with wild variations

 

So the guys chosen at about the same point as Gwynn got around $900K last year...I'd expect him to be in that range, maybe $925K or so? I don't know what Fermaint signed for, but I would not be surprised if it were quite a bit less than $400K. Opdyke should be in the vicinity of $250K, though in another thread some wildly different numbers were mentioned (from a newspaper article).

[Pudster13]

I agree with Colby on Weeks. I'm not a scout, but from what I saw last Saturday, I'd say that the Weeks is very far from being a major league player. He did seem very raw. Out of about 50 pitches, he only hit one over the fence. He did hit the ball to all fields, very well, however. I honestly think that his bat speed is a little overrated. I did want this kid to be a Brewer, more than I wanted Delmon Young. I'm excited and think that he will be a great player at the major league level, someday. However, I believe he should start at Beloit and spend a full year at that level.

[shelmark]

U. Payne on mlb.com brewers site noted that he wants Weeks playing soon...and he mentioned Beloit...which means it looks like Weeks will be skipping Helena once he signs.

[batman]

The thing about Billy Beane that people misunderstand is that the reason he is so far ahead of everyone else is because he exploits inefficiencies in the market, whatever they may be. High OBP guys happened to be undervalued so that's who he went after... College players were undervalued so that's who he went after... Veterans who can hit but were "over the hill" were undervalued so that's who he went after, and on and on.

 

The other thing that is key to his success is that he evaluates everything objectively. He and DePodesta have developed a way to measure exactly (for their purposes at least) what the value of each player is to their team. Because of this, they don't rely on assumptions and subjective opinions based on watching a few games. They know, for example, how many runs Eric Chavez is worth to their team.

 

The combination of exploiting inefficiences and diligently applying objective knowledge to decisions is what sets Beane apart. It's not so much what the inefficiences are or what the stats say as much as it is the fact taht these inefficiencies and stats exist and he's exploiting them.

 

~Bill

[tlpc4]

I guess I am not ready to proclaim him "so far ahead of everyone else" until he wins a championship or sustains a 10 year type success level. I have serious questions about him doing either since:

- they have been able to win a championship yet

- they have 5 star players that are going to need to be paid real soon

- their minor league system has been affected by trying to win now (value picks, college low ceiling guys)

[Never Outhustled]

I think it will have a huge impact on Oaklands future that Beane fired the scouting director that found all the talent thats presently on there roster. In Beanes defense , the budget hes forced to work with is just rediculous.

[SoCalBrewfan]

For what it's worth, Billy Beane is not the only one who's done well by ignoring conventional wisdom, or rather by exploiting conventional wisdom to pick up players undervalued by traditional scouting. Houston has built up their farm system pretty cheaply by focusing on college seniors and short pitchers, by helping to pioneer the DFE process, as well as by being very successful in Venezuela early on. Not being afraid of short pitchers netted them talent like Oswalt, Nannini, and Wagner, and their college seniors include Jason Lane, Morgan Ensberg...

 

To me Beane has done well in part because of his sabremetrics, but the crucial part of the equation is value...if you can reliably assign a value to players, then you can see which players are undervalued by other teams. In some cases that's a Hatteberg, in others it's a short pitcher like Oswalt or, say, Ruddy Lugo. Whereas other organizations pay for things that may or may not exist, like the defense and veteran leadership provided by Royce Clayton.

 

EDIT: Oh, and clearly he got pretty lucky with those three pitchers. Yeah, college pitchers blah blah blah...it's rare that everything goes so right as it has with those guys.

[danzig6677]

My view on what seperates the good GM's from poor ones is very basic,the good ones have a better eye for talent.Sure certain GM's believe in different systems or philosophies,but in the end it all comes down to aquiring the best players your budget allows for and drafting well.

 

A GM like Gillick has stated hes not huge into sabremetrics,while some are.Well the track record for Gillick speaks for itself as it does for Beane.They may follow different ways in builing a franchise,but in the end both have been proven to be consistant winners.

 

It's no fluke that guys like Beane,Gillick,Sabean,and Schuerholz consistantly produce winning teams while others don't.All three of those guys seem to go about things differently to a degree,but in the end their keen eye for talent seperates them from lesser GM's.

 

As for Weeks i'm sure he'll sign eventually,but given he doesnt have the threat of going to college,he doesnt seem to have much leverage against us.Plus sitting out hurts him also since the longer hes out the longer it takes him to reach the majors and get the arby/free agency clock ticking.