2018 Brewers Optimism Thread!

[Fear The Chorizo]

Fangraphs had the 2017 brewers pegged for 73 wins, so an 83 win projection means they'll wind up with what, 96-97 this year based on the ~13 win anti-brewer bias their fake stats projections include?

 

There, now fangraphs can stay in the optimism thread!

[YelichPosse]

Is this the optimism thread or the DFA Braun thread?

 

We are missing most the starting staff, Thames, and Braun (or a anywhere near normal Braun)... and we are 10 over .500..... and just won 3 series on a tough trip ... cheers!

[Ennder]

Fangraphs has been heavily negative on the Brewers for like 15 years now. I'm not exactly sure why but I am not surprised by it.

[AKCheesehead]

 

This is the kind of bullpen that can work wonders in the postseason.

Of course it’s a long ways from here until the postseason. You’re right though. A bullpen working like ours is now...if you have that in October you really have something going for you.

[Lathund]

Fangraphs has been heavily negative on the Brewers for like 15 years now. I'm not exactly sure why but I am not surprised by it.

 

It's fairly easy to understand why any stat-based projection system would be negative about the 2017 and 2018 Brewers at least. There were plenty of players on the Brewers roster who didn't have much of an MLB track record going into last season or this season; Thames, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Aguilar on the position player side to name some. So when a player goes from either a poor/middling record to having a good season a projection system is going to assume some regression, or rather project something somewhere inbetwee the past numbers and the breakout. And that's usually what happens. Of course, a system like that can't know why performance improved. Maybe the player was finally healthy. Maybe there was a mechanical adjustment. Maybe it was a psychological adjustment. Maybe he corrected his vision. Maybe he added some more muscle. Maybe he added a new pitch.

 

Case in point would primarily be the pitching. Jimmy Nelson was one of the worst starters who received significant playing time in 2016. Chase Anderson was 5th starter type innings eater prior to 2017. The 2017 versions of both of them were rather different from the past. They both recieved the Derek Johnson curveball treatment. Chase added muscle and velocity, while Jimmy figured something out with his command. So a previously erratic pitcher with good stuff found a way to throw both his good fastball and his new curve for strikes. And a pitcher with a previously good offspeed offering got some extra zip on his fastball to make it even better, and improved his breaking ball. With that in mind, it'd be reasonable to expect something closer to 2017 than the past for both of them, but from a stat-based approach the opposite would be true.

 

Projections get a lot of crap, but they do offer something different. Sometimes they'll be way off, for reasons outlined above. But sometimes they will also identify teams poised for success or regression that no experts manage. They're more accurate over larger samples, obviously. But I'm pretty certain that an average of a projection system and expert predictions does better than either one on it's own. Which means they do have value. And on a team level, it's only rather late into the season that the results up to that point have better predictive value than the preseason projections.

 

ETA: There were also projections that were more favourable, and had the Brewers in the mid-80s.

[rcc]

The first place Brewers with maybe the best pitcher in baseball getting the win last night. Hader overpowers the hitters every time out. So far the MVP of the team and if this keeps up and the Crew makes the playoffs the MVP of the league.

[YelichPosse]

The first place Brewers with maybe the best pitcher in baseball getting the win last night. Hader overpowers the hitters every time out. So far the MVP of the team and if this keeps up and the Crew makes the playoffs the MVP of the league.

 

Are you talking about Hader or JJ

[homer]

I feel like projection systems have always had a tough time figuring out how much value bullpens provide. Certainly could explain some of the variance.

 

Also, Josh Hader is the best Brewer of all time. Also, the Brewers are in 1st place.

[torts]

JJ Hader split the NL CY YOUNG award!

[Boomer5]

Hader is the runway MVP right now. Keeping him in the bullpen was brilliant.

 

CC for manager of the year and we better lock up DJ to a long term deal. They are our LaRussa and Duncan without the DUIs and smugness.

[YelichPosse]

Hader is the runway MVP right now. Keeping him in the bullpen was brilliant.

 

CC for manager of the year and we better lock up DJ to a long term deal. They are our LaRussa and Duncan without the DUIs and smugness.

 

[rcc]

The first place Brewers with maybe the best pitcher in baseball getting the win last night. Hader overpowers the hitters every time out. So far the MVP of the team and if this keeps up and the Crew makes the playoffs the MVP of the league.

 

Are you talking about Hader or JJ

 

Hader of course. JJ is right up there in second place.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Fangraphs has been heavily negative on the Brewers for like 15 years now. I'm not exactly sure why but I am not surprised by it.

 

It's fairly easy to understand why any stat-based projection system would be negative about the 2017 and 2018 Brewers at least. There were plenty of players on the Brewers roster who didn't have much of an MLB track record going into last season or this season; Thames, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Aguilar on the position player side to name some. So when a player goes from either a poor/middling record to having a good season a projection system is going to assume some regression, or rather project something somewhere inbetwee the past numbers and the breakout. And that's usually what happens. Of course, a system like that can't know why performance improved. Maybe the player was finally healthy. Maybe there was a mechanical adjustment. Maybe it was a psychological adjustment. Maybe he corrected his vision. Maybe he added some more muscle. Maybe he added a new pitch.

 

Case in point would primarily be the pitching. Jimmy Nelson was one of the worst starters who received significant playing time in 2016. Chase Anderson was 5th starter type innings eater prior to 2017. The 2017 versions of both of them were rather different from the past. They both recieved the Derek Johnson curveball treatment. Chase added muscle and velocity, while Jimmy figured something out with his command. So a previously erratic pitcher with good stuff found a way to throw both his good fastball and his new curve for strikes. And a pitcher with a previously good offspeed offering got some extra zip on his fastball to make it even better, and improved his breaking ball. With that in mind, it'd be reasonable to expect something closer to 2017 than the past for both of them, but from a stat-based approach the opposite would be true.

 

Projections get a lot of crap, but they do offer something different. Sometimes they'll be way off, for reasons outlined above. But sometimes they will also identify teams poised for success or regression that no experts manage. They're more accurate over larger samples, obviously. But I'm pretty certain that an average of a projection system and expert predictions does better than either one on it's own. Which means they do have value. And on a team level, it's only rather late into the season that the results up to that point have better predictive value than the preseason projections.

 

ETA: There were also projections that were more favourable, and had the Brewers in the mid-80s.

Yeah pretty much all this and also projections don’t equal or mean predictions.

[obobo55new]

7-3 road trip. Let's do the same or better on the 10 game homestand.

 

I'm really liking this team. Considering the pitching that we are throwing being a different group every 10 days, pretty amazing. Hope Guerra can keep it up, we get Anderson, Davies, possibly Nelson back sometime later this year...throw in a rookie that does a Eldred or D'Amico and we could have something real special.

[SomewhereInTime]

1st place, 2nd best record in the league on May 20th, 7-3 roadtrip, magic number down to 116!

[RobDeer 45]

Not sure I can say this in the Optimism thread, but I had them pegged for 12 wins this month! I thought it would be tough on this road trip. So now, I'm super optimistic for the rest of the month. Let's keep it rolling! I'm excited to watch tonight!

[MadScientist]

It's late May, Knebel has only 2 saves, Nelson is close to two months away, Braun and Thames are out, and many players have under-performed at the plate.

 

And oh yea, the Brewers are in first place, 10 games over and have the most wins in the league. This is proving to be a resilient team, and possibly a very special one.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I feel like projection systems have always had a tough time figuring out how much value bullpens provide. Certainly could explain some of the variance.

 

Also, Josh Hader is the best Brewer of all time. Also, the Brewers are in 1st place.

 

I asked a Q about projection systems and the Brewers during Jeff Sullivan's last Fangraphs chat. Basically, he talked about how it is really hard to quantify depth and how much value it provides. I think this is why projection systems undervalued the Brewers last year and (hopefully will) continue to do so this year.

[pacopete4]

On a night that the Cubs lost 10-0, the Brewers win game number 30!

[Eye Black]

On a night that the Cubs lost 10-0, the Brewers win game number 30!

Well 10-1 loss for the Cubs, but the most steady member of their rotation thus far, Tyler Chatwood, walked 6 and gave up 4 hits in 2.2 innings pitched.

[homer]

I feel like projection systems have always had a tough time figuring out how much value bullpens provide. Certainly could explain some of the variance.

 

Also, Josh Hader is the best Brewer of all time. Also, the Brewers are in 1st place.

 

I asked a Q about projection systems and the Brewers during Jeff Sullivan's last Fangraphs chat. Basically, he talked about how it is really hard to quantify depth and how much value it provides. I think this is why projection systems undervalued the Brewers last year and (hopefully will) continue to do so this year.

 

 

As an aside, Jeff Sullivan is my favorite baseball writer.

 

 

Also, Brewers have the most wins in the NL.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Sullivan is my favorite too, and he is going to be writing about the Brewers a lot if they keep playing like this!

[torts]

stressed at work, stressed at home, the brewers are the only thing im not stressed about, this is EXCITING! Who the frig is this saladino guy? I LOVE HIM! I LOVE HIS AWFUL MUSTACHE! I LOVE THIS TEAM!

[Eye Black]

31-19

 

Best start through the first 50 games of a season in franchise history.

 

Also held the Diamondbacks to 22 hits over the six game series which according to the Fox Sports Wisconsin broadcast is a new major league record for lowest number of hits allowed over a six game season series.

 

Wow, things are really rolling along right now... oh, and now at a .620 winning percentage which puts them on pace for a 100 win season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

SALADINOMITE and his crew are the fastest team to 31 wins in franchise history.