Stearns separates fact from fiction in Brewers' search for starting pitchers

[pacopete4]

Fact From Fiction Article per Tom Haudricourt

 

This seemed share worthy and a good read.

[MrTPlush]

The only semi interesting things out of all that was the fact they don’t think they have a lot more payroll space and they were close to trading Santana a couple of times.

 

The title to that article is painfully misleading though. He pretty much GM talked most of it.

[reillymcshane]

“Our entire strategy is based on a philosophy that young players need to play. We will continue, regardless of what stage we’re in, to take chances on young players. We cannot block young players. We think we have a number of young starting pitchers, whether it’s this year or next year, who have the ability to make an impact on the major-league level."

 

This is why all the speculation and all the handwringing and all the belief that we didn't do enough this offseason really doesn't hold water. The club has a plan and they are sticking to it. Whether we like that doesn't matter - it's the way things are.

 

I do not doubt that the Brewers looked at the top pitchers - Arrieta, Darvish, Archer - but just couldn't come to any agreements. They then allocated their money and prospect capital to Cain, Chacin, Yelich and some lower level arms (Gallardo, Logan, Albers).

[Boomer5]

GM talk. He added mostly older players so the whole let the young guys play thing seems odd.

 

The top of the line up is much improved and if DJ can hold the rotation until Jimmy comes back the team will be competitive.

 

I still can see us trying for a blockbuster trade to add a starter.

[Lathund]

GM talk. He added mostly older players so the whole let the young guys play thing seems odd.

 

You add veterans on relatively cheap short-term deals while you wait for the young guys to be ready. Burnes, Hiura, Ortiz, Dubon and others will get to play, but aren't ready right this second. There'll always be some veterans in the mix as well even if the overall strategy is young controllable talent.

[82brewcrew82]

“Our entire strategy is based on a philosophy that young players need to play. We will continue, regardless of what stage we’re in, to take chances on young players. We cannot block young players. We think we have a number of young starting pitchers, whether it’s this year or next year, who have the ability to make an impact on the major-league level."

They cannot block young players? Take chances on young players? Why sign Cain when you have a young Phillips to play center? Why was Miley even considered for a starting spot with a young Suter and a young Woodruff ready for those spots? Is Braun, as many here are suggesting, going to play a bunch of RF and block a young Santana?

 

They may have a plan but what was stated above isn't it and it certainly doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I'm not a big fan of accepting things just because "that's the way it is". Fans vote with dollars and if they stop spending those dollars on the Brewers because of a dumb plan, it will matter plenty.

[coolhandluke121]

“Our entire strategy is based on a philosophy that young players need to play. We will continue, regardless of what stage we’re in, to take chances on young players. We cannot block young players. We think we have a number of young starting pitchers, whether it’s this year or next year, who have the ability to make an impact on the major-league level."

They cannot block young players? Why sign Cain when you have a young Phillips to play center? Why was Miley even considered for a starting spot with a young Suter and a young Woodruff ready for those spots? Is Braun, as many here are suggesting, going to play a bunch of RF and block a young Santana?

 

They may have a plan but what was stated above isn't it and it certainly doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I'm not a big fan of accepting things just because "that's the way it is". Fans vote with dollars and if they stop spending those dollars on the Brewers because of a dumb plan, it will matter plenty.

 

Well, for one thing, he specifically mentioned young pitchers. And Phillips is not really an intriguing prospect anyway.

 

Secondly, I very much doubt Braun will be blocking Santana and they tried to trade Santana anyway.

 

Lastly, Miley and Gallardo were "considered" for starting spots because it's competition, a common sense good practice for any team. It's silly to suggest that either one of them would be "blocking" the young guys unless the young guys clearly weren't ready or the Brewers want to preserve their service time.

 

Pretty much everything they did is consistent with the plan, which is not some reductionist nonsense about going all-in now or saving it all for later. It's about getting good values, avoiding bad ones, and preserving maximum flexibility while exploring all every possible avenue to improving the team. The fans will be out in full force when they win, and the impatient ones will ultimately be glad they weren't the ones making decisions.

[TJseven7]

"The only semi interesting things out of all that was the fact they don’t think they have a lot more payroll space"

 

Oooof, then we are all but capped through 2020. Cap frees up due to Knebel Nelson Braun and Thames. In 2020 we project out towards 98 mil.

 

"This is why all the speculation and all the handwringing and all the belief that we didn't do enough this offseason really doesn't hold water."

 

Even I can accept this but it severely tempers my expectations for 2018. If 1-3 was stacked appropriately, 4-5 could be training wheel rotation spots. I've laid this out many times. The problem is that we don't have 1-3 locked down well enough without Nelson or an addition. This would point to cobb 1 year rationale as well. A tight budget splurge to bridge the team to Nelson 2019 and lock up 1-3 properly until he can get back to successful starts. With the trust youth model we shouldn't add both chacin and another arm beyond 1 year.

 

"He added mostly older players so the whole let the young guys play thing seems odd."

 

We don't have that many young guys ready. The only 1 is suter if you want to push a 4th arby onto woodruff. Burnes peralta ortiz are still at least a half season away likely more.

 

"I still can see us trying for a blockbuster trade to add a starter."

 

I don't until we have a new found surplus in the farm. Burnes woodruff Peralta Hiura and soon enough Phillips and Dubon have a role in our youth slots on this roster. In 2019 we have 4 options for 2 slots at 4-5. Burnes woodruff suter and hold over Chacin. If you start sending prospect capitol in mutiples for 1 piece deals, then thats not the case. Ortiz is the only high level prospect who you can call close and blocked. (Assuming all goes well) that plus woodruff or burnes isnt enough of a package for a big add. Harrison Brinson Diaz are all blocked for 5 years if you get Yelich, want Cain, value Phillips and see hiura as the 2b of the future. So that trade makes sense.

 

"Why sign Cain when you have a young Phillips to play center? Why was Miley even considered for a starting spot with a young Suter and a young Woodruff ready for those spots? Is Braun, as many here are suggesting, going to play a bunch of RF and block a young Santana?"

 

Phillips is playing RF and using his arm anywhere else would be prospect abuse. That's why Santana is on the outs. That's why Brinson was dealt. He's a CF. Phillips is our Reddick. Its very apparent we follow the same organizational idea as the astros have of pitching depth. You need 10 starters. Miley is fodder in that structure. Woodruff they want 4th arby so they want to wait. Suter can be the 4 or 5 as is... we can sit on Guerra. Chacin Miley Guerra Yo... are 4 shots into the 10. Anderson Davies are established. Nelson is established but out. Woodruff Suter Burnes makes 10. It makes a whole lot of sense if you look at some very good posts around here and keep glancing over at roster formulation.stuff that leaks out of houston.

 

I don't feel Braun will block Santana. He'll take his rest and he'll take his spot if Santanas gripping too hard for a couple days. He'll slump bust for him. Thames is going to lose more AB than we are letting on. Also remember... santanas not long for MKE unless his value stays cold. When its Phillips in RF, Braun or Yelich will take more starts there because Phillips is just a kid at this point. He shouldn't come up til theres starts to be had but he's not jumping in as an everyday guy either.

 

To be dead honest... I dont trust sliding offensively from Santana to Phillips in RF until we step up from villar/sogard/perez at 2b to Hiura. I'd prefer Santana be dealt in the 2019 offseason... so please showcase.

[82brewcrew82]

The quote said young players, not young pitchers. Whatever you think of Phillips he is is young and has potential. Certainly worth "taking a chance" on......especially if the alternative is a 32 year old on an 80mil contract.

 

If Braun is only playing first against lefties and he isn't taking time away from Santana then Braun ain't playin much. They tried to trade Santana because he was their most attractive trade piece to obtain some that they don't have.

 

Miley wasn't just "considered", by all reports he was in line to grab that spot. That would certainly see as though he was "blocking" someone younger.

 

I certainly don't think they are all in now and they certainly are not saving it all for later. They are stuck in middling hell. If they are indeed "preserving maximum flexibility" then they have done a poor job if the report above is accurate in that they are very near maximum payroll. I don't see how signing a 32 year old to a five year 80mil contract to nearly max out your payroll is an effective choice given the "plan". The fans came out in force when the plan was to win. When the plan became to be mediocre, they stopped coming out in force. To this day there are posters on here that think the decisions, made by the decision makers, to avoid mediocrity were obvious.

[LouisEly]

“Our entire strategy is based on a philosophy that young players need to play. We will continue, regardless of what stage we’re in, to take chances on young players. We cannot block young players. We think we have a number of young starting pitchers, whether it’s this year or next year, who have the ability to make an impact on the major-league level."

 

This is why all the speculation and all the handwringing and all the belief that we didn't do enough this offseason really doesn't hold water. The club has a plan and they are sticking to it. Whether we like that doesn't matter - it's the way things are.

 

I do not doubt that the Brewers looked at the top pitchers - Arrieta, Darvish, Archer - but just couldn't come to any agreements. They then allocated their money and prospect capital to Cain, Chacin, Yelich and some lower level arms (Gallardo, Logan, Albers).

I think this is the more relevant quote:

 

“We feel comfortable with where we are pitching-wise,” said Stearns, whose staff ranked fifth in the National League (4.00 ERA) last season. “I think we have a very deep staff when you look at the guys that not only are going to start at the major-league level but also the guys who will be in our Triple-A rotation.

 

“I do think we have eight to 10 starters right now who we’d feel comfortable making starts at the major-league level. So, that’s a good place to be heading into a season."

[TJseven7]

"Whatever you think of Phillips he is is young and has potential. Certainly worth "taking a chance" on......especially if the alternative is a 32 year old on an 80mil contract."

 

I don't think anyone in their right mind can compare Cain Santana and Phillips. Cains defensively GG level at CF. He's a top of the order bat. He's got speed, he's got obp and average. You can pick and choose stuff from Santana and Phillips that rival cain but there's no comparison as a whole. Now if you want to look at Santana V Phillips... you trade some power, and obp for defensive wizardry and its a much easier comp to make. Ks hold similar. Santana should not bat 1... phillips probably can't. Cain's a huge fit piece in lineup formulation and defensive scheme. Santana being shopped immediately has the look of wanting to taje out the negative defense for Phillips. We dont have Cain and this lineups still got a giant hole in it.

 

"If brauns only playing first against lefties and he isn't taking time away from Santana then Braun ain't playin much."

 

Flat calling bull on that press release. Thames is losing more time than just against LHP.

 

"Miley wasn't just "considered", by all reports he was in line to grab that spot. That would certainly see as though he was "blocking" someone younger."

 

Well heres the question. Is suter a longman in their eyes? Do they want a 4th year of control on Woodruff? Answer yes to 1 and Miley beat Guerra for a starting spot. Answer yes to 2... we need Guerra and Miley at 4-5. Do you think Suter should throw a ton of starts as he stretches into a starters role or do you think they should ease him in. Ditto Woodruff. I wouldn't try to push either past 150 ip. 32 starts could put them at 165.

 

As it sits right now, I assume that they were looking to 2019 as the year that matters from the start. Cains a big cog in what they are doing so he was added when they had a chance to get someone like him. Guys like yelich don't come available often.

[82brewcrew82]

The point wasn't to compare Cain and Phillips. The point is that Phillips is young and talented. If they are not going to block young players and give them chances, Phillips is that. Particularly when the alternative is to spend 80mil on an aging player.

 

Call bull on it all you want. What you can't do is cherry pick what you want to believe and what you don't. If that situation is bull, then you have to allow for the whole thing to be bull.

 

Apparently they think Suter is a starter nor do they care about the 4th year on Woodruff. What I wold have preferred is for them to have brought in a better arm making how they handled Woodruff and Suter a far less critical decision while burying Miley on the depth chart.

 

If 2019 is the key year, do you not think they could have found a pretty good OF for 80mil? I think they could have...or maybe they wouldn't of had to if Phillips had been given the chance to prove he was decent enough. That 80mil would have been fun to have. There isn't any guarantee that Cain doesn't start to decline this or next year. You can't make that assumption but then totally write off that Phillips couldn't be acceptable (or that Miley is all of a sudden a decent pitcher again). Yelich I have no problem with.

[TJseven7]

"The point wasn't to compare Cain and Phillips. The point is that Phillips is young and talented. If they are not going to block young players and give them chances, Phillips is that. Particularly when the alternative is to spend 80mil on an aging player."

 

Well they intend to unblock Phillips by trading Santana. When, not sure but its clearly the intent. If thats the desired move Cain's blocking Broxton and we really cant afford 2b and CF playing bad defense and k'ing in the 200s again. Cain just doesn't block Phillips and Phillips is high K as well, fine replacing Santana but not replacing Cain.. Cain's also a pretty rare talent, and there's no given another guy like him hits the market and comes for 80mil. I'm not discounting Phillips in the least but we know that we need to get Ks out of this lineup and Phillips in center doesnt do that. We know we need a professional batter at the top of this lineup and nothing points to phillips being that in the near future. Maybe in 3 years he's proved that he can and Lutz Stokes/Grisham/Ray are pushing Cain onto the trade block.

 

I get the age concern but Cain checks a lot of boxes we desperately needed checks in.

 

As for bull... thames starts 125 games (37 vs LHP assumed) then he's at more PA than last year and that was too much for him. He's not a highly durable player. 60 1b starts is the minimum of what Im expecting for Braun. I've written out the PA math in the 1b/OF stack as a strategy thread. It makes a lot of sense.

[82brewcrew82]

If Santana had been traded Braun would have moved to right and they would have rolled with Aguilar and Thames at first. The intent was never to keep young players from being blocked or to give them a shot. The plan was to trade Santana for pitching but it didn't happen so now we get story time.

[TJseven7]

So Brauns move to 1st is illogical? You'd prefer to play Aguilar over Phillips? I'm discouting Phillips but you'd make him a 4th OF at the expense of getting Aguilar ABs?

[82brewcrew82]

So Brauns move to 1st is illogical? You'd prefer to play Aguilar over Phillips?

Phillips has been optioned and they are debating on whether to keep Aguilar. It's not about what I would do.

[TJseven7]

So Brauns move to 1st is illogical? You'd prefer to play Aguilar over Phillips?

Phillips has been optioned and they are debating on whether to keep Aguilar. It's not about what I would do.

 

Right because Santana is still here and you'd prefer not to flat cut Aguilar at a time when teams are waivers happy.

[adambr2]

Planned scenario, I'd pencil in Yelich for 145 starts and Cain for 135.

Thames can start 120 against RHP at 1st.

 

That's 42 starts at 1st for Braun and 42 for Santana already. If all Yelich's days off come against LHP than Perez gets 17 in left. Cain's 27 off would presumably be against RHP, Braun and Santana both get another 27 starts there bringing them up to 69, another 5 each at DH brings them up to 74, which would put them each around 120 if they split the remainder.

 

There's work to go around without putting Thames out to pasture. This is if every single one of these guys avoids the DL all year which isn't going to happen.

[82brewcrew82]

There was no talk of moving Braun to first until after it became apparent they were not going to be able to move Santana.

[TJseven7]

There was no talk of moving Braun to first until after it became apparent they were not going to be able to move Santana.

 

There was talk about Braun moving to 1st for 3 years but our 4th OF was never better than our options at 1b. It's never been done due to a complete lack of a need. It was inevitable though.

[82brewcrew82]

Talk by fans maybe, never the team.

[TURBO]

There was no talk of moving Braun to first until after it became apparent they were not going to be able to move Santana.

 

and that says a lot...

 

Not trading Domingo put a monkey wrench into that so called plan, that can't be denied.

[TURBO]

There was no talk of moving Braun to first until after it became apparent they were not going to be able to move Santana.

 

There was talk about Braun moving to 1st for 3 years but our 4th OF was never better than our options at 1b. It's never been done due to a complete lack of a need. It was inevitable though.

 

 

 

I have never seen anyone in the Brewers organization even mention moving Braun to 1B.

 

That all came about because we still have Santana.

 

edit: no need for that first sentence. removed

[TJseven7]

Planned scenario, I'd pencil in Yelich for 145 starts and Cain for 135.

Thames can start 120 against RHP at 1st.

 

That's 42 starts at 1st for Braun and 42 for Santana already. If all Yelich's days off come against LHP than Perez gets 17 in left. Cain's 27 off would presumably be against RHP, Braun and Santana both get another 27 starts there bringing them up to 69, another 5 each at DH brings them up to 74, which would put them each around 120 if they split the remainder.

 

There's work to go around without putting Thames out to pasture. This is if every single one of these guys avoids the DL all year which isn't going to happen.

 

Not sure I follow the math...

Braun 42 1b

Santana 27 with yelich in CF

Perez 17 due to Braun at 1b vs lhp

47 and 32 after DH... total 79

162 in RF makes 241.

110 for Braun and 131 for Santana sounds reasonable. Maybe 15-25 starts short of ideal.

Any DL time, or letting Thames hit against LHP the games Yelich sits instead of perez fixes that gap pretty quick.

[TJseven7]

There was no talk of moving Braun to first until after it became apparent they were not going to be able to move Santana.

 

There was talk about Braun moving to 1st for 3 years but our 4th OF was never better than our options at 1b. It's never been done due to a complete lack of a need. It was inevitable though.

 

 

 

I have never seen anyone in the Brewers organization even mention moving Braun to 1B.

 

That all came about because we still have Santana.

 

Well before we added Yelich and Cain, Braun stated that he was open to playing any position but 3b. That if the roster composition required it he'd be willing to switch positions. That was in OCTOBER. So unless you want to believe we already knew then that we'd have cain yelich and be stuck on Santana... or that we had OFs we were dying to play over our options at 1b prior to 2018... you are flatly wrong. Sorry not sorry.

 

The organization never talked about it? Why should they talk about options they have zero reason to consider implementing. Could arcia move to 2b... sure could... but short of us acquiring machado there's no sense in talking about it.

 

You want to ignore where the evidence points so you can pound your fists on the table and accuse this move of being desperate and reactionary, be my guest. That doesn't make your stance correct. I don't care what my stance ends up being... I just follow evidence until I have a stance. This was an inevitable switch, that was on the back burner until it made sense for roster composition. Here we are.

 

Why did we add Yelich Cain while we still had Santana. Cuz we thought we'd trade Santana and assumed we had the option of Braun at 1st. It's highly likely that if we traded Santana Phillips would be up and not merely as some 4th OF, but as our RF and Braun would still get time at 1b. Phillips > Aguilar