Jimmy Nelson [Latest (10/6): Nelson: No longer a “rehabber” -- post #161]

[markedman5]

Tom

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@Haudricourt

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#Brewers GM David Stearns said team "is running out of time" to get Jimmy Nelson on mound this season. Sounds unlikely.

[MrTPlush]

I hope Jimmy Nelson can get back to strength. It’s a bit concerning how slowly it is taking him. I understand everyone goes at a different pace...but if he fails to make it back this year, that’s going painfully slow.

[homer]

I had forgotten about Jimmy. Hopefully he makes it back full strength next year. Nelson, Chacin, Andrerson, Peralta, Burnes, Davies, Miley, Guerra is a pretty good set of guys on which to base a rotation (other roster moves/trades/signings notwithstanding).

[MNBrew]

^^Completely agree.

 

This isn't great news, especially in light of our seemingly thinner rotation depth, but I think it's what was realistic all along. Since his injury and its diagnosis, I've felt that any Jimmy Nelson time on the mound for the Brewers in 2018 would be a pleasant plus -- a bonus I never counted on. Those early projections of June or whatever just seemed way too optimistic.

 

Nelson's still young enough that there's a lot of "long term" potentially still ahead for him, and getting him right for that is far more important than any risks that would go with pushing him to get back before this season's over.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Arbitration question...with Jimmy looking to miss the entire year. How does the arbitration hearings work? Will he still be set to get a raise? How much? BR has him listed as $3.7 million this year with 3.1 service time.

[MrTPlush]

Arbitration question...with Jimmy looking to miss the entire year. How does the arbitration hearings work? Will he still be set to get a raise? How much? BR has him listed as $3.7 million this year with 3.1 service time.

 

Yah, I am sure he will get a raise. Being out the entire year means it will be minimal though. Nothing to lose sleep over.

[clancyphile]

Since this was a non-throwing injury, perhaps the smart move might be to try to lock Nelson up to a longer deal - say, five years, $30 million?

[82brewcrew82]

It's still a shoulder regardless of how it happened. No way I extend him until he proves he can pitch again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Since this was a non-throwing injury, perhaps the smart move might be to try to lock Nelson up to a longer deal - say, five years, $30 million?

 

Seeing that the injury likely has prevented him from throwing a pitch on a MLB mound for more than 12 months, that would perhaps be the worst move to try and make. He's going to get a marginal at best pay bump in arbitration, I'd rather they just see what Nelson can do when (hopefully not if??) he ever gets back to 100% health. It's still his throwing shoulder, not an ACL or ankle break or something that has nothing to do with the functionality of his arm, so even though he injured it while not throwing a baseball there has to be concern until he proves he's the same pitcher to justify any sort of longterm extension talk, IMO.

 

I also think if his prognosis does look good for next season, his agent would advise Nelson not to take that kind of extension as it would control him at far below market price for an upper rotation starter through too much of his prime production years. If Nelson would sign a 5 year extension at that price, I'd be worried as a fan that his team knows he's likely damaged goods.

[adambr2]

Since this was a non-throwing injury, perhaps the smart move might be to try to lock Nelson up to a longer deal - say, five years, $30 million?

 

Seeing that the injury likely has prevented him from throwing a pitch on a MLB mound for more than 12 months, that would perhaps be the worst move to try and make. He's going to get a marginal at best pay bump in arbitration, I'd rather they just see what Nelson can do when (hopefully not if??) he ever gets back to 100% health. It's still his throwing shoulder, not an ACL or ankle break or something that has nothing to do with the functionality of his arm, so even though he injured it while not throwing a baseball there has to be concern until he proves he's the same pitcher to justify any sort of longterm extension talk, IMO.

 

I also think if his prognosis does look good for next season, his agent would advise Nelson not to take that kind of extension as it would control him at far below market price for an upper rotation starter through too much of his prime production years. If Nelson would sign a 5 year extension at that price, I'd be worried as a fan that his team knows he's likely damaged goods.

 

Boy, I realize 30M doesn't buy what it used to but we better not ever be offering 5/30 to a pitcher who is damaged goods.

 

Also don't necessarily agree that his agent would advise him to reject it. Or maybe he would, but Nelson doesn't have to listen. He might have concerns himself about how he will be long-term and jump at the chance to secure a lifetime changing amount of money like Chase Anderson did.

[trwi7]

Arbitration question...with Jimmy looking to miss the entire year. How does the arbitration hearings work? Will he still be set to get a raise? How much? BR has him listed as $3.7 million this year with 3.1 service time.

 

We can't offer less than 80% of his salary this year so I'm guessing we're come in somewhere between $2.96 million and $3.7 million on our offer. That's the 20% drop to the salary he had this year and we would very likely win since he hasn't pitched this year.

[Boomer5]

There was no mystery he wasn’t pitching in 2018. I can’t imagine anyone in our front office was counting on him this year.

[adambr2]

Hard to imagine a worse season for Jimmy to miss. Having Jimmy this year in a wide open NL would have been enormous.

[TURBO]

There was no mystery he wasn’t pitching in 2018. I can’t imagine anyone in our front office was counting on him this year.

 

They weren't, they said things that made it sound that way, but they had to know.

 

The problem was the people here who continuously made accusations that he'd be back this year, help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

This news is not disappointing to me because I said from day one that anything we got from him this season would be a bonus, and I did not expect to see him this season at all.

 

I was told a couple of times I was negative, and was wrong. In the end, I was realistic, and correct.

[homer]

There was no mystery he wasn’t pitching in 2018. I can’t imagine anyone in our front office was counting on him this year.

 

They weren't, they said things that made it sound that way, but they had to know.

 

The problem was the people here who continuously made accusations that he'd be back this year, help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

This news is not disappointing to me because I said from day one that anything we got from him this season would be a bonus, and I did not expect to see him this season at all.

 

I was told a couple of times I was negative, and was wrong. In the end, I was realistic, and correct.

 

Congratulations

[dlk9s]

Well, in 2015 I said that Jimmy Nelson would injure his shoulder on the base paths two years later and that eeeeveryone would be all optimistic about him returning some time in 2018 and that turborickey would advise everyone not to their hopes up because he wasn't going to pitch this year. My wife - my WIFE - got on me about turborickey's opinion on the situation.

 

Well look who's laughing now. Look who's laughing now.

 

 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There was no mystery he wasn’t pitching in 2018. I can’t imagine anyone in our front office was counting on him this year.

 

They weren't, they said things that made it sound that way, but they had to know.

 

The problem was the people here who continuously made accusations that he'd be back this year, help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

This news is not disappointing to me because I said from day one that anything we got from him this season would be a bonus, and I did not expect to see him this season at all.

 

I was told a couple of times I was negative, and was wrong. In the end, I was realistic, and correct.

 

And what does he win, Bob?

 

A worse baseball team!

[TURBO]

There was no mystery he wasn’t pitching in 2018. I can’t imagine anyone in our front office was counting on him this year.

 

They weren't, they said things that made it sound that way, but they had to know.

 

The problem was the people here who continuously made accusations that he'd be back this year, help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

This news is not disappointing to me because I said from day one that anything we got from him this season would be a bonus, and I did not expect to see him this season at all.

 

I was told a couple of times I was negative, and was wrong. In the end, I was realistic, and correct.

 

Congratulations

 

Thank you.

[Boomer5]

It wasn’t that anyone was “right” it was just common sense. No one is coming back a year later from that injury. Let alone be a meaningful TOR type.

 

Internally the team had to know this.

[Eye Black]

They weren't, they said things that made it sound that way, but they had to know.

 

The problem was the people here who continuously made accusations that he'd be back this year, help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

This news is not disappointing to me because I said from day one that anything we got from him this season would be a bonus, and I did not expect to see him this season at all.

 

I was told a couple of times I was negative, and was wrong. In the end, I was realistic, and correct.

 

Congratulations

 

Thank you.

Was it the in-home hyperbaric chamber that tipped you off? In hindsight that was a dead giveaway desperation had set in, but the rest of us ignored the obvious signs!

[MrTPlush]

It wasn’t that anyone was “right” it was just common sense. No one is coming back a year later from that injury. Let alone be a meaningful TOR type.

 

Internally the team had to know this.

 

Why couldn’t they? The timeline for such an injury is less than a year? Are you a Brewers doctor? It wasn’t crazy to think he would pitch this year, probably was a safe assumption.

 

I wouldn’t have made roster decisions planning it...but to expect him to pitch was reasonable. Nelson healed slowly and his return to pitching even slower...happens.

[Ennder]

This is not a surprise and the people who were counting on Nelson all year long were simply wrong at this point. They weren't wrong because there was no chance for him to come back, they were wrong because many said you couldn't count on him for anything and were just hoping he gave you something. If you didn't believe there was a really good chance he wasn't going to pitch this year you simply were wrong, plain and simple.

 

There was a chance he would give us something this season and I was hoping he would, but there was no way in heck you could count on it is all I'm saying. This is not even slightly a surprise.

[Brewer Fever]

What a ridiculously unintelligent conversation this has turned into. Also known as the norm. Not one person could be called wrong on this topic given the way things have unfolded. The team has actually been very open and honest on what transpired. Let's try and follow along...

 

- Nelson suffers a shoulder tear but not from throwing a baseball giving rise to the hope that the typical recovery time might be shorter

 

- Nelson has surgery which confirms the wear and tear normally found during the procedure was not nearly as bad as when the injury occurs from throwing a baseball. Further hope that the recovery time might be lessened

 

- Nelson's rehab is ahead of schedule from the get-go and he begins throwing a baseball well ahead of the schedule. A 3rd point in the process where there is boosted hope of a shortened recovery window

 

- Spring Training begins and Nelson gets stuck throwing at a distance of 150 feet. This is the first time in the recovery process where Nelson has to pump the brakes a little bit. Up until that point Nelson was on track to potentially throw off a mound by the end of ST. Nonetheless Nelson is still well ahead of schedule

 

- Nelson is re-examined and told to stop throwing for a period of time

 

- From that point on, Nelson progresses to throwing at further distances and eventually makes his way to the mound. By this time Nelson's recovery has fallen back in line with the typical timeline for a pitcher undergoing shoulder surgery

 

Those first 3 points in the timeline are plenty enough for a reasonable person to conclude Nelson could be back in 2018. The last 3 points describe how Nelson hit roadblocks on his road to recovery which led to where we are today. If Nelson's shoulder doesn't start barking at 150 feet, he's probably back by now. Unless your Nostradamus, I don't recall anyone predicting Nelson would hit that roadblock. And I also don't remember anyone (even up until that first hurdle) saying Nelson could be counted on to be any more than a bonus to the pitching staff in 2018. There was reason for hope well into the season that Nelson could pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers in some capacity at some point in 2018. To claim those who held that hope were wrong and those who said "no way" were right is like claiming victory for being right about a coin flip.

[ilikewisco]

[markedman5]

Nelson update