Next year's F/A pitchers?

[Madhawk23]

I know a lot can and will change in a year - but let's say that we are in a similar spot next offseason where we just missed out on the playoffs and it is clear that we need to add another starting pitcher if we are serious about making a run in 2019. Outside of Kershaw (which we know we have no shot at), what other SP's will be hitting F/A next off season?

 

Hopefully we have guys like Guerra, Woodruff, Burnes, etc. that take hold of some of the rotation spots this coming year and it isn't a big issue heading into the off season next year, but I'm just curious to know how next year's crop compares to this year?

 

I still can't believe that we didn't end up with any of the top 4 guys this year, but I'm putting my full trust in Stearns that he knows a lot more than I do.

[brewmann04]

I think next year the brewers might be in trouble to compete on the Fa market with the big boys.

[DR28]

I think next year the brewers might be in trouble to compete on the Fa market with the big boys.

 

Agreed... We won't come close to adding Keuchel, Price, etc.

[pacopete4]

So let’s not compete in that market. Let’s continue to find young controllable pitching and refuse to overpay there.

[Lathund]

I remember seeing a list and not being too impressed with it. Naturally that can change depending on what kind of seasons some of them have in 2018, but I don't see too much in the way of big moves next year either. While I think that the Brewers would have been in on the "big 4" at a certain price point, I also think they have a lot of faith in Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta/Woodruff and so don't want to make big moves for the short term. The fact that it was Brinson/Diaz/Harrison included in that deal instead of any of them might also be a sign that points to that (Or that the Marlins wanted hitters, but still...). If Nelson comes back even close to 2017 form, I don't even see a need for 2018. Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Chacin and then some combination of Woodruff/Burnes/Suter/Ortiz/Peralta should prove a good rotation.

 

I'm a big fan of the approach DS is seemingly taking, that you don't let need dictate too much of your actions. What I mean by that is the fact that there is a need (or want) to strengthen the rotation shouldn't mean you settle for anything less than what you're looking for. If the options aren't good enough to "move the needle", or doesn't make sense cost-wise or risk-wise, you walk away. You improve when a deal makes sense, like with Yelich, even it it may not be the biggest need.

 

So I think the internal options will be the focus for the rotation in 2018 and 2019, with a rental or 1-2 year salary dump type signing being the most likely outside additions IMO. To me it makes little sense to acquire high-end pitching; you try to develop your own, or sign slightly lower-tier pitchers who you believe have upside to improve. Spending big on FA pitching is a losing game unless you have the budget to sustain it.

[Boomer5]

By young and controllable I assume that Stearn's version means Yo, Miley, and Chacin?

 

This off-season has taught us our route will be the farm and dumpster diving when it comes to pitching.

 

I'd be interested to see if we can make a Quintana type of deal at some point though.

[82brewcrew82]

So let’s not compete in that market. Let’s continue to find young controllable pitching and refuse to overpay there.

OK, I'll play. What would that look like exactly?

[SeaBass]

I think he means trades, which is how the Brewers have historically improved their pitching. Their big free agent pitcher signings haven't been rousing success stories.

[82brewcrew82]

I think he means trades, which is how the Brewers have historically improved their pitching. Their big free agent pitcher signings haven't been rousing success stories.

I get that. Where is this controllable talent and what do I have to give up to get it? Santana isn't getting it done as they've been trying all off season to deal him for exactly that.

[A Swing and A Drive]

2018/2019 Free Agent SP

Name/Age next offseason

 

RHP Garret Richards (30)

RHP Matt Harvey (29)

RHP Lance Lynn (32)

RHP Charlie Morton (35)

RHP Brandon McCarthy (35)

RHP Adam Wainwright (37)

 

LHP Dallas Keuchel (31)

LHP Drew Pomeranz (30)

LHP Patrick Corbin (29)

LHP Drew Smyly (29)

LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)

LHP Gio Gonzalez (33)

LHP JA Happ (36)

LHP CC Sabathia (38)

 

There were a few other players who are not listed because I feel their clubs/players will exercise options (i.e. Price) or agree to extension (i.e. Kershaw) . The one I was on the fence about was weather the Rangers would pick up a $20M option on a 35 year old Cole Hamels, but their staff is so terrible they likely will. I also left off crap #5 starter (i.e. Franciso Liriano/Anibal Sanchez) type Free Agents.

 

Tons of risk on all these players at their ages/injury histories if you ask me. I would have preferred Arrieta over almost all these players except maybe Keuchel, who I'm sure will be out-bid over our market. Oh well...

 

Perhaps Brewers would be better off going for a TOR young starter at this year's deadline...

 

Could be available via trade in 2018:

 

RHP Chris Archer (we don't match up well with Rays as trade partners, IMO)

RHP Marcus Stroman (will likely balk at the cost if even made available)

RHP Julio Teheran (would have to breakout in the first half to even peak my interest)

LHP Danny Duffy (he's a drunk, MKE not the place he will succeed)

LHP Sean Manaea (meh...)

 

Starting to wonder if we should convert Josh Hader back to a starting pitcher this year. We simply don't have a pitcher on the farm with his ceiling. I think we need a future ACE more than we need "Andrew Miller-lite".

 

Having A.J. Puk in our system over Corey Ray sure would be a nice problem to have.

 

2016 1st Round

Pick Player Team Position School

1 Mickey Moniak Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder La Costa Canyon High School (CA)

2 Nick Senzel Cincinnati Reds Third baseman Tennessee

3 Ian Anderson Atlanta Braves Pitcher Shenendehowa High School (NY)

4 Riley Pint Colorado Rockies Pitcher St. Thomas Aquinas High School (KS)

5 Corey Ray Milwaukee Brewers Outfielder Louisville

6 A. J. Puk Oakland Athletics Pitcher Florida

 

Hindsight being 20/20...

 

We will probably draft another OF in the first round this year.

[brewmann04]

yes I think trades just don't want to wipe out the farm again

[TURBO]

I don't find that list all that impressive... Would love to land Keuchel, but other than him, nothing really excites me.

[ewitkows]

I would sign Corbin for what Cobb got.

[And That]

Garrett Richards is one of the most talented pitchers in the game, just can't stay healthy. I guess the catch-22 is that if he's great, Brewers might not be able to afford him. If he's injured a lot again this year, there's possibly too much risk especially on the wrong side of 30.

[SeaBass]

yes I think trades just don't want to wipe out the farm again

 

Farm prospects are currency. It's a fact of life. Using the farm to improve the major league club is how it's done, whether it's a prospect that earns a promotion or is traded for established players. Trades are especially important for a club like the Brewers that find it difficult to compete on the free agent market.

 

I understand lots of people value having farm depth and want to keep it that way. But it is not a necessity, it is a luxury. It's a cycle. In my opinion, which I fully appreciate others holding an opposing view, I try not to get over-attached to the idea that we "must" keep the farm stocked. As we have seen, re-stocking the farm doesn't take an obscenely long time if you have a talented GM overseeing things.

 

Yes it would be great to maintain a happy medium, but I'm more than willing to part with valuable prospects for young, controllable talent that's going to help the major league club for several seasons. Buh bye Brinson and co., best o' luck to ya, thanks for netting us Yelich.

 

I am a fan of and like to watch the Milwaukee Brewers play baseball, not the Timber Rattlers or the Sky Sox.

[pacopete4]

So let’s not compete in that market. Let’s continue to find young controllable pitching and refuse to overpay there.

OK, I'll play. What would that look like exactly?

 

Anderson

Davies

Hader

Ortiz

F. Peralta

 

All were acquired with trades and all could help, hopefully, at the big league level.

 

Then there is Nelson, Suter, Burnes, Woodruff who were all drafted and groomed.

 

This is a good list of guys who can fill out a rotation. All are young or were young, controllable talent. I hope we continue this type of acquisition approach because it will keep us out of terrible contracts for a small market team.

[SeaBass]

So let’s not compete in that market. Let’s continue to find young controllable pitching and refuse to overpay there.

OK, I'll play. What would that look like exactly?

 

Anderson

Davies

Hader

Ortiz

F. Peralta

 

All were acquired with trades and all could help, hopefully, at the big league level.

 

Then there is Nelson, Suter, Burnes, Woodruff who were all drafted and groomed.

 

This is a good list of guys who can fill out a rotation. All are young or were young, controllable talent. I hope we continue this type of acquisition approach because it will keep us out of terrible contracts for a small market team.

 

I agree with this, but with the caveat that these acquisitions were made by trading away the Brewers established players as part of the rebuild.

 

The Brewers aren't going to be looking to trade their important players away in deals like that while pushing for the playoffs and beyond. Santana has been identified as expendable but there's not a lot of other guys most of us are going to want to see dealt from the major league club. Anybody want to see Shaw dealt? I don't particularly want that to happen.

 

So near future trades are going to be more prospect heavy in cost to the Brewers than the trades that got them those players. Which I think is the issue 82brewcrew82 was getting at.

[pacopete4]

They don’t have to be. As prospects emerge, trade the established player before they get super expensive. Hopefully Stearns can guess right more often than not.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Next years FA SP class is brutal, part of my reason for wanting to grab a guy this offseason on top of not having much competition to sign a guy and next year it looking like most of the big markets will be back spending.

[paul253]

I think the Brewers really dropped the ball this offseason in terms of pitching. Premium(ish) pitching could have been had at a discount compared to how much it usually costs and we still didn’t address it. Now with Miley out for a month and Nelson out for who knows how long we have to pray everything doesn’t go bad fast.

 

Hopefully our big four starting prospects (Woodruff, Ortiz Peralta and Burnes) all develop enough to the point where at least two of them can be counted on to hold rotation spots next season but you just never know with prospects. I’d love to see a trade to acquire a controllable starter. I’d also like to see us drafting more pitching early on instead of “toolsy” outfielders like Ray and Clark.

[SeaBass]

They don’t have to be. As prospects emerge, trade the established player before they get super expensive. Hopefully Stearns can guess right more often than not.

 

Maybe but a lot of guys aren't at risk for being expensive until 2021 or later. A deal is going to happen much sooner than that.

 

Cain will be around at least 3 years and Yelich most of his 5 years unless the Brewers window has closed unexpectedly. So we're back to the usual suspects: Santana, Villar, Thames, Broxton. Braun if the Dodgers want him, which they don't.

 

I think Stearns has a price in his head that he's willing to pay in a trade and he's just waiting for a partner to like that price enough to make something happen.

[coolhandluke121]

I think he means trades, which is how the Brewers have historically improved their pitching. Their big free agent pitcher signings haven't been rousing success stories.

 

The free agents haven't really been terrible either. Just kind of meh. You expect 1-2 good years and a decline. The return seems about fair.

 

Also, the trades haven't exactly been great either when you consider what they gave up. A lot of people see the Greinke and Sabathia trades as necessary to make the playoffs, but with the talent pool they built up before Mark A bought the team, they should have been in contention of the playoffs on a yearly basis. They basically only had 2 good years under Mark A. That's abysmal considering how much talent he inherited, and part of it can be attributed to giving up astounding surplus value (Brantley, Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi) for guys like Sabathia and Greinke. How many mediocre seasons did they have that would have been very different with guys like that? Use a sustainable model of team-building please!

 

But the real story was their inability to develop homegrown pitching, which is a million times better strategy (no hyperbole, seriously) than playing free agency or trades if you're a small market team. They appear to be committed to that, and the early returns are promising. I honestly see this team as a turn-of-the-century A's level front office, head and shoulders above nearly everyone else in discipline and sense of value. I could have lived with Cobb, but I'm glad they stuck to their guns and appear poised to give Woodruff and Suter, among others, every opportunity in the world to earn their keep.

[3and2Fastball]

I'll take Burnes over any of those FA pitchers besides of course Kershaw. It is always a roll of the dice with pitcher's health, but if Burnes stays healthy I think he'll be a TOR pitcher.

 

In terms of the FA list, Matt Harvey as a low cost bounce back candidate could be interesting....

[SeaBass]

Meh, I don't regret the Sabathia trade. Sheets get injured shortly after and there that went. Lost to eventual WS champion.

 

The Grienke trade you can make a case for, but we also traded him for a good return so it's not like the pieces they gave up were never replaced. Went to NLCS and lost to eventual WS champion in 6 games. There's only 1 alternate result better than that (ok, 2 results).

 

If they could stop getting beaten by teams that go on to win the World Series just think what this team could've been!

[MrTPlush]

Pretty sure we already have a thread on this topic, but regardless it doesn’t make a lot of sense that we will be big spenders dishing out a multi year deal to a starter. Burnes/Woodruff should both get lots of experience this year. Where is the need then? We should be able to fill out a good rotation next year. Only could see us trading for a near ace level guy we can’t afford in FA that will give us more TOR talent.