Brewers made 1 year offer to Cobb

[reillymcshane]

I think the 1-year deal tells a story. The Brewers didn’t want to be locked into these guys for multiple years based on what we have currently and coming up as well as it probably shows they didn’t think all that highly of Cobb as a rotation changer. Good for them for sticking with their guns. Hopefully it will all work out for them.

I agree with this. If the team didn't want to get stuck in a long term deal at this time for one of those pitchers - so be it. There are consequences as the rotation is questionable, but that's how things go.

[homer]

Would've been incredibly dumb to give up a pick for a one year deal, so I'm really happy Cobb didn't accept it.

 

Agreed. This makes me questions Heymans report.

[DHonks]

Would've been incredibly dumb to give up a pick for a one year deal, so I'm really happy Cobb didn't accept it.

 

Agreed. This makes me questions Heymans report.

 

Couldn't the Brewers have offered him arbitration next year?

[MadThinker88]

I think the 1-year deal tells a story. The Brewers didn’t want to be locked into these guys for multiple years based on what we have currently and coming up as well as it probably shows they didn’t think all that highly of Cobb as a rotation changer. Good for them for sticking with their guns. Hopefully it will all work out for them.

I agree with this. If the team didn't want to get stuck in a long term deal at this time for one of those pitchers - so be it. There are consequences as the rotation is questionable, but that's how things go.

 

I was wondering where to link this bleacher report article.. I think it would fit here...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765696-mlb-position-power-rankings-2018-brs-top-30-starting-pitchers

 

No Brewer - Nelson, Anderson, etc made the top 30 as an individual SP.

 

I will be interesting to compare/ contrast the position rankings for SP once Fangraphs gets there.

I'd like to think the Brewers have a top 15 starting staff. Not so sure at this point and without a top 10 rotation, I think serious playoff contention (even the Wild Card) is doubtful. A LOT of things broke the right way for the Brewers last season. Unlikely all that happens again..

[MadThinker88]

Would've been incredibly dumb to give up a pick for a one year deal, so I'm really happy Cobb didn't accept it.

 

Agreed. This makes me questions Heymans report.

 

Couldn't the Brewers have offered him arbitration next year?

 

I think you mean offer him a Qualifying Offer next season. Answer is no. With the new CBA, players can only get 1 QO during their career.

If you truly meant arbitration, then he would still be 'controlled' by Tampa & unable to sign as a free agent this off season.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I think the 1-year deal tells a story. The Brewers didn’t want to be locked into these guys for multiple years based on what we have currently and coming up as well as it probably shows they didn’t think all that highly of Cobb as a rotation changer. Good for them for sticking with their guns. Hopefully it will all work out for them.

I agree with this. If the team didn't want to get stuck in a long term deal at this time for one of those pitchers - so be it. There are consequences as the rotation is questionable, but that's how things go.

 

I was wondering where to link this bleacher report article.. I think it would fit here...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765696-mlb-position-power-rankings-2018-brs-top-30-starting-pitchers

 

No Brewer - Nelson, Anderson, etc made the top 30 as an individual SP.

 

I will be interesting to compare/ contrast the position rankings for SP once Fangraphs gets there.

I'd like to think the Brewers have a top 15 starting staff. Not so sure at this point and without a top 10 rotation, I think serious playoff contention (even the Wild Card) is doubtful. A LOT of things broke the right way for the Brewers last season. Unlikely all that happens again..

Fangraphs has the rotation at #20 in the league right now on their depth charts page and that’s with 1.2 WAR out of Miley and 1.8 out of Jimmy, which both seem a bit generous.

 

I don’t think any individual pitcher projects inside the top 60 by any of their projection systems either.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[TJseven7]

Would've been incredibly dumb to give up a pick for a one year deal, so I'm really happy Cobb didn't accept it.

 

As proably the biggest cobb advocate here.... I stunningly whole heartedly agree. If he signed a 12/1 or 15/1 with balt 14 pages of rage wouldn't have taken place. My stance would be the same as lynn. I'm not giving up a 4th for a freaking rental.

 

I'd give the pick for 3-4 years of reasonably priced control abd balt got that. If we truly offered him 1 year and we have TBs guy who was involved with biomechanics its possible to suppose that the split change is a torque pitch and he thinks he either won't get it back or if he does, that cobb will blow his elbow again. Or that his delivery is a injury inducer. Neither is a good look for my stance... and I easily admit they know more than I do... but I still think they are wrong and we missed a chance.

 

As someone said it'll be interesting to follow. People supposed that maybe MKE wasn't interested in him... I never fought that as a possibility... but it sure seems absurd to me. We weren't interested. He signed for money. Things we know. We'll see the rest.

 

That arrieta lean though.... shivers. Terrifying shivers.

[adambr2]

Like most fans, when the news of Yelich and Cain came in almost simultaneously, I thought, "Ok, there's more to come, these are just 2 steps in the master plan here."

 

I'm more than a bit surprised to see that apparently wasn't the case. I think the theory that perhaps they had other moves lined up that didn't work out is pretty plausible. If so, however, it's not a very good look. Yelich and Cain were big investments in terms of both prospects and capital. If you're going to invest that heavily into your strongest position as part of a larger plan, you had better be certain that the other steps of your larger plan are going to pan out.

 

Yelich is pretty easy to justify as a standalone long and short term move independent of any other move. The 80M investment into a nearly 32 year old outfielder is much harder to wrap my head around without questioning whether or not that was supposed to be accompanied by another move that never happened.

[TJseven7]

I think the 1-year deal tells a story. The Brewers didn’t want to be locked into these guys for multiple years based on what we have currently and coming up as well as it probably shows they didn’t think all that highly of Cobb as a rotation changer. Good for them for sticking with their guns. Hopefully it will all work out for them.

 

That would be correct. They did see Arrieta as years worthy rotation changer though. I'm not happy about that and I'm greatful for philly taking the bullet. 75/3 on arrieta to see cobb go for 57/4 might have killed me.

 

Until the next big boras client has his market crash and needs a prestige deal in 2019 we sure have the look of a team heavily depending on internal growth. I wonder if anyones thinking we have the ammo to go after a deadline ace when we really need one of woodruff or burnes in this rotation. Do we really want to pick our pony and send the other with ortiz peralta and some bats (not hiura lutz) for a young 3 year controlled arm?

[TJseven7]

Like most fans, when the news of Yelich and Cain came in almost simultaneously, I thought, "Ok, there's more to come, these are just 2 steps in the master plan here."

 

I'm more than a bit surprised to see that apparently wasn't the case. I think the theory that perhaps they had other moves lined up that didn't work out is pretty plausible. If so, however, it's not a very good look. Yelich and Cain were big investments in terms of both prospects and capital. If you're going to invest that heavily into your strongest position as part of a larger plan, you had better be certain that the other steps of your larger plan are going to pan out.

 

Yelich is pretty easy to justify as a standalone long and short term move independent of any other move. The 80M investment into a nearly 32 year old outfielder is much harder to wrap my head around without questioning whether or not that was supposed to be accompanied by another move that never happened.

 

It really looks like 2 things: Either Santanas market fell apart due to the TB OF bloodletting or philly beat us on Arrieta.

 

That looks very likely and think about when stearns started saying we like the guys we got. Arrieta was wrapped up on the 11th. When did stearns drop the we like our staff line?

[sveumrules]

 

I was wondering where to link this bleacher report article.. I think it would fit here...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765696-mlb-position-power-rankings-2018-brs-top-30-starting-pitchers

 

No Brewer - Nelson, Anderson, etc made the top 30 as an individual SP.

 

I will be interesting to compare/ contrast the position rankings for SP once Fangraphs gets there.

I'd like to think the Brewers have a top 15 starting staff. Not so sure at this point and without a top 10 rotation, I think serious playoff contention (even the Wild Card) is doubtful. A LOT of things broke the right way for the Brewers last season. Unlikely all that happens again..

Fangraphs has the rotation at #20 in the league right now on their depth charts page and that’s with 1.2 WAR out of Miley and 1.8 out of Jimmy, which both seem a bit generous.

 

I don’t think any individual pitcher projects inside the top 60 by any of their projection systems either.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

Anderson was 25th in MLB last season in FIP based WAR (3.3) & 16th in runs allowed based WAR (4.6) in only 141 innings. The projections don't know about his velocity increase & change in mound positioning so they have him barely scratching 2 WAR. If he can match or exceed last year's innings that should be an easy over.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

 

I was wondering where to link this bleacher report article.. I think it would fit here...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765696-mlb-position-power-rankings-2018-brs-top-30-starting-pitchers

 

No Brewer - Nelson, Anderson, etc made the top 30 as an individual SP.

 

I will be interesting to compare/ contrast the position rankings for SP once Fangraphs gets there.

I'd like to think the Brewers have a top 15 starting staff. Not so sure at this point and without a top 10 rotation, I think serious playoff contention (even the Wild Card) is doubtful. A LOT of things broke the right way for the Brewers last season. Unlikely all that happens again..

Fangraphs has the rotation at #20 in the league right now on their depth charts page and that’s with 1.2 WAR out of Miley and 1.8 out of Jimmy, which both seem a bit generous.

 

I don’t think any individual pitcher projects inside the top 60 by any of their projection systems either.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

Anderson was 25th in MLB last season in FIP based WAR (3.3) & 16th in runs allowed based WAR (4.6) in only 141 innings. The projections don't know about his velocity increase & change in mound positioning so they have him barely scratching 2 WAR. If he can match or exceed last year's innings that should be an easy over.

Yeah, by going off of last years pure rate stats and if they could factor in velocity increases (though I guess how could they factor it in if it’s sustainable or not since he’s already 30 and I’d imagine that’s rare for a SP? he has more innings logged at the lower velocity levels than the higher ones) he should probably be projected inside the top 40 or so at worst. But they look at more than last year and before then his rate stats were nothing special on top of never hitting more than 150 or so innings in a year (also think at least one of the systems uses historical references and history says his best years would be behind him most of the time or at the very least he’s not on the rise).

[MNBrew]

Like most fans, when the news of Yelich and Cain came in almost simultaneously, I thought, "Ok, there's more to come, these are just 2 steps in the master plan here."

 

I'm more than a bit surprised to see that apparently wasn't the case. I think the theory that perhaps they had other moves lined up that didn't work out is pretty plausible. If so, however, it's not a very good look. Yelich and Cain were big investments in terms of both prospects and capital. If you're going to invest that heavily into your strongest position as part of a larger plan, you had better be certain that the other steps of your larger plan are going to pan out.

 

Yelich is pretty easy to justify as a standalone long and short term move independent of any other move. The 80M investment into a nearly 32 year old outfielder is much harder to wrap my head around without questioning whether or not that was supposed to be accompanied by another move that never happened.

 

It really looks like 2 things: Either Santanas market fell apart due to the TB OF bloodletting or philly beat us on Arrieta.

 

That looks very likely and think about when stearns started saying we like the guys we got. Arrieta was wrapped up on the 11th. When did stearns drop the we like our staff line?

I think it wasn't too long after Brewers Fest -- or maybe it was around when Darvish signed with the Cubs -- that Stearns was quoted as saying that the Brewers' reported interest in some of the big FA SP names out there was overblown and that they like the guys they have. I remember being quite surprised and even disappointed by it, but obviously he's been very consistent in his stated position ever since, so I think it's quite obvious he wasn't blowing smoke.

 

Like adambr2 said, I also thought there would be more moves coming soon after the Yelich/Cain double-bombshell day. And perhaps that was the plan and things were lined up. But we've heard a zillion times that all these things are pretty fluid in the offseason and it wouldn't surprise me at all that the tides changed and, consequently, so did the Brewers' likelihood of pulling off the move(s) they had hoped to. . . . That said, of course, there's a ton of time in which moves can still happen -- about 4 months between now & the trade deadline -- and we all know that the Opening Day roster is not permanent, whether due to injuries, performance, promotions/demotions, trades, etc.

 

Last year's rotation wasn't glitzy, but over the last couple months they were among the best in the league -- and they managed to do so in the thick of the playoff race. Minus Nelson, they're essentially back intact. I have faith in them to do something near what they did last year. While Stearns didn't outwardly criticize the offense or defense, they were both issues. Acquiring Yelich & Cain made a very strong statement about both the offense and defense. Yelich is just hitting his prime -- great investment! Stearns said (during MLB Network's 30 in 30 feature) that most of their analytics pointed toward Cain being a player who's still improving and, therefore, who projects well into the future and thus is a good investment, too. . . . .

 

I believe the Yelich & Cain moves improved the team greatly. Obviously they didn't do anything big to the pitching staff.... YET. I think that will work itself out over time as needed.

 

Stearns' whole "controllable young talent" mantra still rings very true, and with Cain still projecting upwardly, they obviously view his age as not being much of a problem. In all, it would seem very likely that whatever move(s) thin the large herd in the OF (and maybe 2B, too, if Villar's play puts him on the outs) will very likely continue to target a return of young talent.

[PeaveyFury]

Doesn't this at least *plausibly* suggest that Arnold may have had knowledge that made him uncomfortable with Cobb based on his time in Tampa? Maybe the injury made them more uncomfortable with something than just a physical would clear.

[Austin Tatious]

This is how I saw it too. Try to get Arrieta.

 

However, Lynn on a one year deal would have been fine. No risk and gives you another starter in a situation where Nelson is hurt for a chunk.

 

Cobb, I wouldn’t have paid that amount for him. I wouldn’t have been ticked off if they signed him but, like Lynn, I’d only do a year for Cobb.

 

At the end of the day, Arrieta is the one with upside. Guys like Lynn and Cobb, the hope is you pull up a Burnes, a Woodruff, an Ortiz, a Peralta, a Ponce, and a couple of those guys come through for the same type of production as Lynn and Cobb give you.

 

We will see how it all plays out.

[MrTPlush]

This definitely sucks for this year, but I guess now you hope Woodruff and Burnes can turn out. That gives you a nice and cheap rotation moving forward.

 

1. Nelson

2. Anderson

3. Davies

4. Woodruff

5. Burnes

[pacopete4]

This definitely sucks for this year, but I guess now you hope Woodruff and Burnes can turn out. That gives you a nice and cheap rotation moving forward.

 

1. Nelson

2. Anderson

3. Davies

4. Woodruff

5. Burnes

Isn’t this what Brewers fans have been waiting for? Home grown, cheaper rotation that allows us to compete. If we didn’t go this route now, when will we? And heck we aren’t even including Hader in your rotation.

[And That]

Doesn't this at least *plausibly* suggest that Arnold may have had knowledge that made him uncomfortable with Cobb based on his time in Tampa? Maybe the injury made them more uncomfortable with something than just a physical would clear.

I think it's more than plausible. Arnold literally ran the Rays' biomechanics unit from 2009 onwards. If anyone outside of the Rays' organization has insights into Cobb, it's Arnold. If the Brewers' offer was indeed for one year, I think it speaks pretty loudly of how they thought Cobb was going to hold up over the long haul.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I wanted Lynn out of this whole crop from day 1 because I knew he'd be economical. Can't believe what he signed for vs. what Cobb got. There's no way the gap between those 2 is as wide as their contracts. If we could have had Lynn for a 1/12 I would have loved it, but alas.

 

I'm fine with nobody, I wasn't really into anyone besides Lynn because he was the only guy I saw as a value signing. Roll the dice with some of our young guys and hope a couple step up.

 

Cain plays every day and makes the team a lot better. I don't hate signing him suddenly because we didn't get Cobb.

[monty57]

Mark the date... I may have been right on something.

 

When Lynn signed, I figured the Brewers would try to get Cobb to sign a one-year deal because I don't think they're comfortable signing another big guaranteed contract for 2019 when they have a lot of guys getting arby raises. Some of them could be pretty large. It would have been perfect for the Brewers to get Cobb on a one-year deal and the Lynn signing made that look possible. Signing him for any longer than that might not have worked financially.

 

I do see what TJ77 is saying about Attanasio and Arrieta. He has said in the past that he would be willing to go well over budget for a special player like Fielder, Sabathia, or Grienke. I don't see Arrieta as a special player, but if Attanasio does, then it could be possible he was willing to bust the budget for him. If that's the case, I'm glad we lost the bidding war. I'd rather go into battle with what we have than straddle ourselves with Arrieta on a big contract.

[pacopete4]

Where are we seeing this connection between Arrieta and MA? Feel like I missed something here. Or are we just speculating?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

This definitely sucks for this year, but I guess now you hope Woodruff and Burnes can turn out. That gives you a nice and cheap rotation moving forward.

 

1. Nelson

2. Anderson

3. Davies

4. Woodruff

5. Burnes

Yeah in an ideal world this works out, which would be great and I’m pulling for it. But with the general nature of pitchers and younger pitchers in Woodruff/Burnes and Davies (relatively) it’s almost a guarantee at least one of those guys above isn’t a real option a year from now (or at least an option that doesn’t give us the best chance to win) due to injury, regression or projection/development not met.

[Invader3K]

I've felt for a while the most likely way the Brewers upgrade the starting rotation is through a trade, and not a free agent signing. While I would not have minded if they signed Cobb, I am not going to get stressed over them not getting him.

[monty57]

Where are we seeing this connection between Arrieta and MA? Feel like I missed something here. Or are we just speculating?

 

Pure speculation form a tweet referenced earlier. Something along the lines of the Brewers being in on Arrieta. It was probably just the same "in on" as was reported regarding the Brewers and every other available pitcher this offseason.

 

But I've always had worries about Attansio meddling in GM affairs. I think Stearns has done a great job, but that could be hurt if agents start calling Attanasio directly to make deals like he did when Melvin was GM. He seemed to have had an epiphany a couple of years ago. I just hope it stays that way and he doesn't go back to "prospects are great for trade bait, but fans want to know the names on back of the jerseys of the guys on the MLB team."

[monty57]

This definitely sucks for this year, but I guess now you hope Woodruff and Burnes can turn out. That gives you a nice and cheap rotation moving forward.

 

1. Nelson

2. Anderson

3. Davies

4. Woodruff

5. Burnes

Yeah in an ideal world this works out, which would be great and I’m pulling for it. But with the general nature of pitchers and younger pitchers in Woodruff/Burnes and Davies (relatively) it’s almost a guarantee at least one of those guys above isn’t a real option a year from now (or at least an option that doesn’t give us the best chance to win) due to injury, regression or projection/development not met.

 

The flip side of that is that someone can step up that we aren't necessarily expecting, like Burnes did last year. We probably have more pitching talent on the farm than at any other time in Brewer history. Some will make the rotation and many will be good, cheap bullpen options going forward. This is huge for the Brewers if they hope to compete going forward. We can't survive long by trading prospects for vets and signing FAs to eight-figure annual salaries.

 

We just need to make sure we give guys the opportunity, even if we're in "go for it" mode. I wish Hader was in the rotation this year, but since that's not happening I really hope Woodruff gets his shot. He's earned it.

 

I wanted Cobb on a one-year deal because that would allow Suter to be a "swingman," where I think he would be most valuable to the team, with Woodruff in the rotation. Not signing Cobb just means that we will probably put Suter in the rotation, hoping he can figure out how to get through the lineup three times, and we'll have to hold onto Guerra for depth as we will need extra pitchers throughout the year. I'd personally stash Guerra at AAA and let Woodruff pitch (after the initial four-man rotation that will last about nine days), but I have a feeling it's going to be the other way around.