Alex Cobb to the Orioles

[Brewer Fever]

It's really hard to discuss something with someone when they are too busy beating their own drum to read your premise.

 

Says the guy responsible for damn near half the posts made on the last 4 pages of this topic.

 

And the gist of what you're saying is that is was Cobb or bust no matter the cost. That's not a premise, that's close-mindedness. Dismissing the other alternatives and downright eschewing the possibility that Cobb would offer little to no upgrade is foolish. You're trying to make yourself out to be a knowledgeable and logical contributor but your definitive statements and obstinate viewpoints undermine your credibility. There are other ways to complete this puzzle. And to be honest, many of them are much more appealing than Alex Cobb at 4 years, 57 million.

[TJseven7]

 

That's hilarious. So your telling me as arby prices raise and contracts raise that they won't be sitting here going... well we spent all we can afford... thats that. That's a lie. 6mil over 2 years cheaper matters. Even if every cost increases it would be an even better deal then. Its like listening to nba fans say... well that 12 mil deal will look like a bargain in 4 years... nope, it wont.

 

Take out the defered money all together if its such a good thing... paying 13 now and 17 then will not benefit this team going forward. It will not increase his trade value and it will matter.

 

Cobb has 20 mil defered... well that makes him a free 4 year 37 mil deal. If defered money doesn't matter, we are morons. Balt just got a great trade chip for their 2018 deadline rebuild party.

 

worrying about what player arbitration earnings will be in 3 years is insane. those players may not even be on the team or in the majors in 3 years. the brewers dont have to offer contracts to players during arbitration years, they can cut them, they can trade them, there are plenty of options that are there to mitigate worrying about unknowns.

 

Also, I think you're missing the fact that Cobb may not even want to come here. so it doesn't matter what the brewers offer. quit acting as if this is only about the money, its not. Baltimore got a deal, cool, brewers maybe made an offer, we've seen plenty of times where players have no interest coming here. that could have been the case.

 

Im not worried about all the arby increases... just the players who would need to be good for us to be good. You have to assume Davies Nelson Knebel Shaw are going to need to be retained... and if we don't then we are going to be so bad it won't even matter. I'm not looking at the perez villar increases but every good player is going to get more expensive. Thats a fact.

 

What is with this prevalent "no one wants to come here" take. Is it easier for you to think this is the case than your franchise is run by tightwads. Is it easier to watch stars leave because... well the town sucks. Cobb was about money. Arrieta was about money. It could have been an expansion team in the Sudan. They were after money.

[pacopete4]

It's really hard to discuss something with someone when they are too busy beating their own drum to read your premise.

 

Says the guy responsible for damn near half the posts made on the last 4 pages of this topic.

 

And the gist of what you're saying is that is was Cobb or bust no matter the cost. Dismissing the other alternatives and downright eschewing the possibility that Cobb would offer little to no upgrade is foolish. You're trying to make yourself out to be a knowledgeable and logical contributor but your definitive statements and close-minded viewpoints undermine your credibility. There are other ways to complete this puzzle. And to be honest, many of them are much more appealing than Alex Cobb at 4 years, 57 million.

This I completely agree with. That is where we need to move away from thinking there is only one way this roster can be built and that is that. It's just not true. I'm pretty excited to see this Brewers team this year. Maybe they flop. Maybe they don't. But this roster is exciting with the possibilities that could take place.

[homer]

Just for reference sake:

 

WAR = wins above replacement.

 

Replacement = replacement level player. A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent."

 

So basically saying Miley was better than a replacement level street free agent. I think you can still be that and also be a bad pitcher.

[TJseven7]

It's really hard to discuss something with someone when they are too busy beating their own drum to read your premise.

 

Says the guy responsible for damn near half the posts made on the last 4 pages of this topic.

 

And the gist of what you're saying is that is was Cobb or bust no matter the cost. Dismissing the other alternatives and downright eschewing the possibility that Cobb would offer little to no upgrade is foolish. You're trying to make yourself out to be a knowledgeable and logical contributor but your definitive statements and close-minded viewpoints undermine your credibility. There are other ways to complete this puzzle. And to be honest, many of them are much more appealing than Alex Cobb at 4 years, 57 million.

 

This thread is full of defeatist talk, excuse making that hasn't got a shred of evidence, cap nonsense and people doing their best to talk themselves into being onboard. My stance is my stance. It's my stance for a reason and I'm not going to waffle because I want to pretend all is right and good with this team. I'm debating my points. I'm READING what they say and explaining why I think its, wrong, shortsighted or misguided. BUT I am actually reading what they say and not trying to put words in their mouth.

 

The gist... again no. Not at all costs. I liked him best, clearly. You couldn't have talked me into the other 3 at their deals. I don't like the control or cost on top of the fact I don't like them as options. I see no redeeming qualities in those deals from a brewers perspective. Cobb wasn't that type of deal. Good control, good potential, good aav... soo good infact that Id have no problem beating it by 7 mil. None. Cobb or bust infers if a bidding war broke out I'd pay whatever. Not the case... this was a beatable offer.

 

As for his value... sure you disagree with my valuation of him but he's the 2nd best healthy pitcher in MKE. That's hardly a wild take. Disagreeing with that puts you on the bad side of logical odds. I'll settle for most likely because that's the best anyone knows. He could get mauled by a panda tomorrow and die. I'm not going to acknowledge implausible hypotheticals. Sorry. You want me to honor your doomsday... give me a break. Do I ask you to honor the equal possibility that cobb will regain the split change and get beyond the weird and bad fluke injuries as he matures turning into a 3.0 era guy who goes 200ip for the next 4 years? Nope, I don't live in crazy town... how bout you?

 

The alternatives? You mean bend over and show me your farm? Sounds pricey compared to 15 mil and a 4th rounder. I value that cost. How about you? All those young arms available... like gray and Q... who cost too much in trade. Stroman 2.3 years of control at the deadline, already costing 7 mil in line for 2 raises plus a boatload of prospects. That's an alternative? Easy! No sweat. That's the take I need to heed to in the attempt to be an open minded individual?

 

Yeah...no.

 

(Also you cant swear, not even in asteriks )

[And That]

I would love to see the math that tries to prove that as reality.

You'd have to dig through the BPro site for the math, but their WAR is based of their DRA calculation, which is generally defined thusly:

 

Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics.

 

DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcher's command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA).

[TJseven7]

Just for reference sake:

 

WAR = wins above replacement.

 

Replacement = replacement level player. A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent."

 

So basically saying Miley was better than a replacement level street free agent. I think you can still be that and also be a bad pitcher.

 

You use an acronym for so long that you forget what it actually stands for. Wins replacement... good enough.

 

I can understand a replacement level pitcher being dreadful... cant understand how a quality pitcher is deemed to make such an insignificant difference. What is the baseline set for a team of all replacement level players... as if if you have 25 replacement level guys you will win X games?

[TJseven7]

I would love to see the math that tries to prove that as reality.

You'd have to dig through the BPro site for the math, but their WAR is based of their DRA calculation, which is generally defined thusly:

 

Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics.

 

DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcher's command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA).

 

That makes sense... FIP like quantifier used. Prediction: We are going to laugh about how bad FIP was as a measuring tool when analytics gets where they are going. I think fip is an outcome blind K driven sham.

[istanbultaye]

A few things:

 

1. And That, when I looked at BR, Wade Miley's 2017 listed a -0.2, so technically that's a negative WAR.

 

I think he has a legitimate chance to be better than that, but will he be even close to Cobb this year? Highly unlikely. But, if he get's the #5 out of camp, I'm not going to complain, as long as he's got a short leash.

 

2. TJseven7, I really like your digging and your 1.1 run differential theory. You just come across as unreasonably angry and personally impacted over not getting Cobb, which colors most people's readings of your arguments in this thread.

 

3. Here's the link to the full explanation https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

 

A team of replacement players would be expected to win around 48 games.

[And That]

That makes sense... FIP like quantifier used. Prediction: We are going to laugh about how bad FIP was as a measuring tool when analytics gets where they are going. I think fip is an outcome blind K driven sham.

Right, I agree that FIP isn't terribly useful but DRA was designed to replace FIP, not be the new FIP. From my understanding DRA is also more useful for its descriptive value as opposed to its predictive value.

[SeaBass]

Just for reference sake:

 

WAR = wins above replacement.

 

Replacement = replacement level player. A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent."

 

So basically saying Miley was better than a replacement level street free agent. I think you can still be that and also be a bad pitcher.

 

You use an acronym for so long that you forget what it actually stands for. Wins replacement... good enough.

 

I can understand a replacement level pitcher being dreadful... cant understand how a quality pitcher is deemed to make such an insignificant difference. What is the baseline set for a team of all replacement level players... as if if you have 25 replacement level guys you will win X games?

 

This made me curious.

 

So the 1965 Mets had 40 wins and the 2003 Tigers had 43 wins. Those are pretty much the worst win totals in the modern era. There are teams with less wins but they're from even longer ago than that Mets team.

 

I feel like pretty bad teams get wins totals in the 50's or 60's. So you can have an objectively terrible team and still reasonably expect around 60ish wins. Unless they're historically bad.

 

It's fighting for those extra 25 to 30 wins that separates the winners from the losers.

[And That]

1. And That, when I looked at BR, Wade Miley's 2017 listed a -0.2, so technically that's a negative WAR.

Yep - I was just referring to BPro in my post. B-R gave him a negative in 2016, too, and Fangraphs gave him a -0.1 back in 2011.

 

If you take the average of all three WARs for each year, Miley has a very small -0.0 WAR in 2011, but he's positive every other year.

[FVBrewerFan]

TJSeven, just curious. What deal did the Brewers need to offer in order for him to sign?

[istanbultaye]

Theoretically, if you had a starting 8, 4 rotation, and 2 bullpen guys with 2 WAR each, that would be about a .500 team. WAR of course oversimplifies things a little bit too much for that to really be true, but it does go to show that if you can get a just a few star (4 war+) level performances in a year, you can still be in contention, even with weakness elsewhere.

[And That]

It's fighting for those extra 25 to 30 wins that separates the winners from the losers.

I like the old adage that in general, you're going to win about 1/3 of your games and lose about 1/3 of your games - it's the other 1/3 that matters. If you transpose that over to starting pitching, one could argue (which I'm not necessarily doing), that the middle 1/3 of your starter's innings are the ones that matter the most. I do think it makes some sense. But also an oversimplification.

[torts]

 

That's hilarious. So your telling me as arby prices raise and contracts raise that they won't be sitting here going... well we spent all we can afford... thats that. That's a lie. 6mil over 2 years cheaper matters. Even if every cost increases it would be an even better deal then. Its like listening to nba fans say... well that 12 mil deal will look like a bargain in 4 years... nope, it wont.

 

Take out the defered money all together if its such a good thing... paying 13 now and 17 then will not benefit this team going forward. It will not increase his trade value and it will matter.

 

Cobb has 20 mil defered... well that makes him a free 4 year 37 mil deal. If defered money doesn't matter, we are morons. Balt just got a great trade chip for their 2018 deadline rebuild party.

 

worrying about what player arbitration earnings will be in 3 years is insane. those players may not even be on the team or in the majors in 3 years. the brewers dont have to offer contracts to players during arbitration years, they can cut them, they can trade them, there are plenty of options that are there to mitigate worrying about unknowns.

 

Also, I think you're missing the fact that Cobb may not even want to come here. so it doesn't matter what the brewers offer. quit acting as if this is only about the money, its not. Baltimore got a deal, cool, brewers maybe made an offer, we've seen plenty of times where players have no interest coming here. that could have been the case.

 

Im not worried about all the arby increases... just the players who would need to be good for us to be good. You have to assume Davies Nelson Knebel Shaw are going to need to be retained... and if we don't then we are going to be so bad it won't even matter. I'm not looking at the perez villar increases but every good player is going to get more expensive. Thats a fact.

 

What is with this prevalent "no one wants to come here" take. Is it easier for you to think this is the case than your franchise is run by tightwads. Is it easier to watch stars leave because... well the town sucks. Cobb was about money. Arrieta was about money. It could have been an expansion team in the Sudan. They were after money.

 

please, dont come at me with the "team is run by tightwads" argument, I live in Pittsburgh, i see what a team run by tightwads looks like. Its not the brewers.

 

Cobb may not be interested in living in Milwaukee, playing most of his games at miller park. you can say Cobb was about the money, but you literally have no idea if the Brewers even made an offer. None of us do until its been reported, which it has not been. Plus, Cobb rejected a qualifying offer, so on top of whatever deal the brewers had they lose a draft pick on top of it. I personally dont hold draft picks to much value, but the team ownership/leadership probably do, so there's that nugget on top.

[kfizz]

I'll be OK with rolling out retreads past their prime (like Miley and Gallardo) and injured half year wonders (like Guerra) if we are prepared to look to get value for guys that aren't likely as valuable two years from now. I'd be looking to move Cain, Albers and Pina if they don't catch lightning in a bottle fairly early. They have a bunch of rotation guys, but are really thin in proven production in the rotation (really only Anderson and maybe Davies) since we don't know when or if Nelson is going to be effective again. The depth is mainly guys that are a dime a dozen, and young guys that might be good but are unlikely to get their shot until it's too late.

 

The bullpen isn't as good as the group that finished last year. Knebel was historically effective. Will he be again? Is there reason to believe Jeffress, Logan or Hoover suddenly become effective again? I think Hader, Barnes and Williams are likely solid options, though Barnes hasn't looked all that good since the first half of last year. Maybe Houser can help. Maybe Albers really is as good as he was last year, but is he really an upgrade over what Swarzak gave this team? Like the rotation, a lot of what we're calling "depth" looks more like an easily obtainable commodity.

 

The offense and defense has undeniably been upgraded. But the one crazy Thames month seems a lot like a weird outlier, and we lost Walker, arguably the most valuable offensive piece the team had in the second half of the year. Not sure why one would believe the production would have matched last year's without upgrading. I have no basis for guessing at what the defensive impact might be. Maybe it's huge.

 

I'm all for letting this play out a bit, but I hope management is able to recognize a losing hand quickly and pivot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'll be OK with rolling out retreads past their prime (like Miley and Gallardo) and injured half year wonders (like Guerra) if we are prepared to look to get value for guys that aren't likely as valuable two years from now. I'd be looking to move Cain, Albers and Pina if they don't catch lightning in a bottle fairly early. They have a bunch of rotation guys, but are really thin in proven production in the rotation (really only Anderson and maybe Davies) since we don't know when or if Nelson is going to be effective again. The depth is mainly guys that are a dime a dozen, and young guys that might be good but are unlikely to get their shot until it's too late.

 

The bullpen isn't as good as the group that finished last year. Knebel was historically effective. Will he be again? Is there reason to believe Jeffress, Logan or Hoover suddenly become effective again? I think Hader, Barnes and Williams are likely solid options, though Barnes hasn't looked all that good since the first half of last year. Maybe Houser can help. Maybe Albers really is as good as he was last year, but is he really an upgrade over what Swarzak gave this team? Like the rotation, a lot of what we're calling "depth" looks more like an easily obtainable commodity.

 

The offense and defense has undeniably been upgraded. But the one crazy Thames month seems a lot like a weird outlier, and we lost Walker, arguably the most valuable offensive piece the team had in the second half of the year. Not sure why one would believe the production would have matched last year's without upgrading. I have no basis for guessing at what the defensive impact might be. Maybe it's huge.

 

I'm all for letting this play out a bit, but I hope management is able to recognize a losing hand quickly and pivot.

 

Sorry, you lost me after "looking to move Cain ..."

[TJseven7]

A few things:

 

1. And That, when I looked at BR, Wade Miley's 2017 listed a -0.2, so technically that's a negative WAR.

 

I think he has a legitimate chance to be better than that, but will he be even close to Cobb this year? Highly unlikely. But, if he get's the #5 out of camp, I'm not going to complain, as long as he's got a short leash.

 

2. TJseven7, I really like your digging and your 1.1 run differential theory. You just come across as unreasonably angry and personally impacted over not getting Cobb, which colors most people's readings of your arguments in this thread.

 

3. Here's the link to the full explanation https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

 

A team of replacement players would be expected to win around 48 games.

 

Thank you for 3.

 

As for 2... thats because I am, and I'm sorry if its offputting but I am. Keith on page 2 stated it wasn't going to end up the first reported roughly 17aav and stated I was going to be irrate. I am, done lost my mind.

 

Think about the thing you are most passionate about in the entire world after family/friends and your faith. This is mine. I follow FOs like people follow the games. I'm quiet during games. This is where I get loud. This NFL offseason has aged me and I'm so pissed at Gutenkunst that I feel like if he meditated, he'd feel it. 3 moves and 2 that I see as wild misses. BUT that's not reserved for GB. Every team spewing resources on garbage frustrates me.

 

Stearns has been a complete delight. You can see him squeezing everything into this team that he can. There are a million boxes you can check off in his favor. I don't question his ability or methodology one bit. However, I've said that many many times about new bright resource savvy gms and sang their praises only for them to show their blind spot. It doesn't make them unqualified for the seat. It's still a blind spot. Dorsey recently got canned in KC for his fear of the unknown in regards to injury. He replaced a value genius in cle who doesn't know how to control a power structure. Hinkie got the same for the 76ers. Schneider caught himself in cap rot and was trend blind and sunk his status.

 

Patience is a virtue... so is a killer instinct. This deal from all angles looks like a rare occurance that you pounce on. It's a chance to get on the plus side of the arms requirement without blasting huge cap and mega years into a 30 year old.

 

He's been a joy to watch. This is concerning. He hasn't done anything that didn't add up to this point. Didn't pounce on the braun deal... fine. Spit value on Davis scooter... happens. Backloading a FA to hold buying power then not swinging... I'm worried.

[TJseven7]

TJSeven, just curious. What deal did the Brewers need to offer in order for him to sign?

 

I feel it was a capitalize on his "1 shot at a FA money grab" more than anything else. I've said 64/4. 60/4 is more than 57... I really doubt Balt did anything for him other than pay him more. I'm curious to see the defered money payout and the trade protection because I think at this time that Balt bought him to trade him next offseason. Lose Jones, Machado, sell sell sell. Selling him on a 30/3 will fetch some assets. They eat the defered cap in the rebuild.

[istanbultaye]

I guess I might be an odd sort of fan. I can respect people's passion, including yours, and I certainly get excited when something good happens for a team I like (mainly the Brewers), and am disappointed when things don't turn out as I hope. But, I don't think I'll ever be able to understand a mindset of getting literally angry over a team's results and/or roster management.

[kfizz]

 

Sorry, you lost me after "looking to move Cain ..."

 

If the Brewers can't legitimately contend this year because they don't have the pitching, I wouldn't waste probably the most productive year of Cain's deal. If they have to restart the rebuild, a 34 year old center fielder is unlikely to be the cornerstone of that effort, especially at the price. Though I assume you were being sarcastic. Just my opinion.

[istanbultaye]

kfizz, the Brewers can't realistically trade Cain until 2020 due to no trade protections.

[TJseven7]

"please, dont come at me with the "team is run by tightwads" argument, I live in Pittsburgh, i see what a team run by tightwads looks like. Its not the brewers."

 

You aren't doing enough simply because someone is doing less. My concern will stand until we see how this plays out in the next year.

[kfizz]

kfizz, the Brewers can't realistically trade Cain until 2020 due to no trade protections.

 

Ugh. Boo. Don't like that deal quite as much at the moment.