Alex Cobb to the Orioles

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers did sign Chacin this offseason, right? He was a FA starting pitcher, right?

 

I know this offseason seems like it's lasted forever and a day, but the posts about wishing the Brewers got something done on the pitching front fail to include all the moves they actually made to improve their pitching staff - bullpen included. Look at their 2017 opening day pitching staff and compare it to what this season's will likely be. Even without including Nelson in this year's mix - it's markedly improved from a talent standpoint.

[TJseven7]

we all need to stop worrying about Lorenzo Cains 5 year deal. His contract is built to allow the Brewers to trade him/his contract and is distributed pretty evenly over the 5 years (it is not backloaded like previously said). So essentially after 2019 he can be traded to pretty much anyone. Even if he's only "good" in 2020, he's still worth $16 million. His contract does not prevent us from signing anyone this year or in the future and was the right move to make this winter.

 

no-trade protection: may block deals to all clubs in 2018, 15 clubs in 2019, 7 clubs in 2020 and 5 clubs each in 2021 and 2022

 

13 14 15 16 17 +5 mil defered... if thats not backloaded, up is down.

 

Now would trading a player who is 34 be easier and also more profitable if they cist 3 years at 48 mil or 3 years at 42 mil. At 35, 2 years and 33 mil or 2 years and 27 mil.

 

Glad we saved money in our lowest payroll year of the next 3!

 

that is not backloaded. MLB is not in a cap era, so deferring money has no real impact year to year (ie to skirt under cap rules), and is common practice for most big contracts. Braun is getting deffered money until 2031 even though his contract rate goes down each of the last two years, does that make his contract backloaded? I dont think so. No one looks at deferred monies as backloading contracts. If anything, the $1 mil a year or whatever it is, is basically negligible and unnoticed to 99.9% of teams and their fans.

 

 

That's hilarious. So your telling me as arby prices raise and contracts raise that they won't be sitting here going... well we spent all we can afford... thats that. That's a lie. 6mil over 2 years cheaper matters. Even if every cost increases it would be an even better deal then. Its like listening to nba fans say... well that 12 mil deal will look like a bargain in 4 years... nope, it wont.

 

Take out the defered money all together if its such a good thing... paying 13 now and 17 then will not benefit this team going forward. It will not increase his trade value and it will matter.

 

Cobb has 20 mil defered... well that makes him a free 4 year 37 mil deal. If defered money doesn't matter, we are morons. Balt just got a great trade chip for their 2018 deadline rebuild party.

[homer]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

[monty57]

This year would have been fine, but I don't think the Brewers could have afforded this contract next year with all of their arby raises.

 

I think they traded for Yelich because they thought it was too good of a deal/value for them to pass up. But Yelich is a corner OF and that didn't solve our CF question.

 

At that point, the question was whether they would be better off upgrading CF with Cain over Phillips/Broxton, or upgrading SP with Cobb over what we have. We only have the payroll going forward to sign one of those multi-year deals, and they chose Cain. They then tried to trade Santana for a young, inexpensive SP, but the corner OF market dried up and the deal didn't happen.

 

We have probably been "in on" Cobb only if he would accept a higher-value, one-year deal. He held out for a multi-year deal and got it. While I would have liked Cobb, I'm fine not paying Cobb for the next four years simply because I doubt that we could afford it. I do wish we could've landed Lynn on the one-year deal, but maybe that deal wasn't available for Milwaukee.

 

I'm concerned about the Brewer rotation this year. I hope Woodruff gets his chance as I believe he's earned it, and I hope Nelson will be back at full strength soon. I think we will skip the #5 starter for a while, so the opening day roster will probably only have four SP.

[TJseven7]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

 

5... pushes 4 spots down a peg... stengthens depth and adds his own personal contribution.

 

85 in the mix to 90 in the playoffs.

[82brewcrew82]

The Brewers did sign Chacin this offseason, right? He was a FA starting pitcher, right?

 

I know this offseason seems like it's lasted forever and a day, but the posts about wishing the Brewers got something done on the pitching front fail to include all the moves they actually made to improve their pitching staff - bullpen included. Look at their 2017 opening day pitching staff and compare it to what this season's will likely be. Even without including Nelson in this year's mix - it's markedly improved from a talent standpoint.

Chacin's numbers outside of PETCO were just awful. Not sure whey folks are just penciling that in as a significant upgrade. You state that the rotation is markedly improved even without Nelson. I just don't know that that is a true statement.

[SeaBass]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

 

162

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[homer]

The Brewers did sign Chacin this offseason, right? He was a FA starting pitcher, right?

 

I know this offseason seems like it's lasted forever and a day, but the posts about wishing the Brewers got something done on the pitching front fail to include all the moves they actually made to improve their pitching staff - bullpen included. Look at their 2017 opening day pitching staff and compare it to what this season's will likely be. Even without including Nelson in this year's mix - it's markedly improved from a talent standpoint.

Chacin's numbers outside of PETCO were just awful. Not sure whey folks are just penciling that in as a significant upgrade. You state that the rotation is markedly improved even without Nelson. I just don't know that that is a true statement.

 

 

His home/road splits are almost entirely driven by left handers crushing him on the road:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2608&position=P&season=2017

 

Here's an interesting article right about the time they signed him on what the Brewers might do to rectify that:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/

[TJseven7]

The Brewers did sign Chacin this offseason, right? He was a FA starting pitcher, right?

 

I know this offseason seems like it's lasted forever and a day, but the posts about wishing the Brewers got something done on the pitching front fail to include all the moves they actually made to improve their pitching staff - bullpen included. Look at their 2017 opening day pitching staff and compare it to what this season's will likely be. Even without including Nelson in this year's mix - it's markedly improved from a talent standpoint.

Chacin's numbers outside of PETCO were just awful. Not sure whey folks are just penciling that in as a significant upgrade. You state that the rotation is markedly improved even without Nelson. I just don't know that that is a true statement.

 

 

His home/road splits are almost entirely driven by left handers crushing him on the road:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2608&position=P&season=2017

 

Here's an interesting article right about the time they signed him on what the Brewers might do to rectify that:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/

 

I liked the add. Doesn't change that he's a giant health risk. To go with our big regression risk on Anderson... an open ended question on Nelson...and then depth that won't carry an era in the right direction. Thin thin ice.

[Austin Tatious]

30 something pitchers:

 

Brandon Looper

Jeff Suppan

Randy Wolfe

Kyle Lohse

Matt Garza

 

Some of those guys were solid for awhile. But none kept it going for the length of their contracts.

 

We have too much data to try to sign big deals for older pitchers. They absorb salary and are progress stoppers for youth.

 

I would have liked Arrieta at 3/75, mainly because unlike the others he has TOR upside. But it’s a risk.

 

At this point, I think Suter is underestimated. And Nelson and Burnes could inject life into the rotation even the second half of this year. Woodruff is still in the mix and developing. Ortiz is considered talented and may put it together. Peralta has talent. Ponce is a nice prospect.

 

Other than Arrieta, I don’t lament not signing anybody, or especially selling the farm for Archer in an overpay.

[torts]

 

That's hilarious. So your telling me as arby prices raise and contracts raise that they won't be sitting here going... well we spent all we can afford... thats that. That's a lie. 6mil over 2 years cheaper matters. Even if every cost increases it would be an even better deal then. Its like listening to nba fans say... well that 12 mil deal will look like a bargain in 4 years... nope, it wont.

 

Take out the defered money all together if its such a good thing... paying 13 now and 17 then will not benefit this team going forward. It will not increase his trade value and it will matter.

 

Cobb has 20 mil defered... well that makes him a free 4 year 37 mil deal. If defered money doesn't matter, we are morons. Balt just got a great trade chip for their 2018 deadline rebuild party.

 

worrying about what player arbitration earnings will be in 3 years is insane. those players may not even be on the team or in the majors in 3 years. the brewers dont have to offer contracts to players during arbitration years, they can cut them, they can trade them, there are plenty of options that are there to mitigate worrying about unknowns.

 

Also, I think you're missing the fact that Cobb may not even want to come here. so it doesn't matter what the brewers offer. quit acting as if this is only about the money, its not. Baltimore got a deal, cool, brewers maybe made an offer, we've seen plenty of times where players have no interest coming here. that could have been the case.

[Brewer Fever]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

 

5... pushes 4 spots down a peg... stengthens depth and adds his own personal contribution.

 

85 in the mix to 90 in the playoffs.

 

This is absurd and really exposes the shortcomings in your logic. Cobb is an extreme longshot to add 5 wins. That's superstar territory.

 

Can we just stop with the definitive statements already?

 

We don't know if the Brewers were even high on Cobb.

 

We don't know if Cobb was willing to even come here.

 

Consider possibilities rather than drawing wild conclusions. It's really all anyone here should be doing. No one should be making wild accusations or bold statements because we don't have enough info. Perhaps the Brewers are aiming higher? Perhaps they will continue to shop for a starter who would plug in as their #1 or #2? Perhaps that acquisition will come sometime this year and make fools of all of you acting like missing out on Cobb is world-ending?

[coolhandluke121]

 

Yeah its garbage. As is the notable decline line. Cobb was in his first year back from TJ and didn't have the feel for his monster pitch. Hes a sinker curve change junk pitcher and they age well. Other than looking at his 2-3-4 offering driven 3.7 era... make an arguement for notable decline.

 

Brewers were challenging 1st because the cubs arms aged badly (enter Q darvish chatwood) and their offense and pen under performed. Because they turned a big time talent like Nelson into production. Because Anderson Knebel blew up. Because Davies was a junk ball rock solid guy. It wasn't due to some young pitcher. It wasn't due to hitting on retreds. It was due to polishing up existing talent like Santana Shaw Anderson Nelson Knebel. Cobb fits that a heck of a lot better than anyone else in the narrative. It was also due to some dumb luck because +.5 run diff was terribly inferior to the cubs mark. Team won a boatload of close games.

 

Cobb is 30 and has had TJ surgery. That is not someone you ever bet on to return to his prime form. It would be in roughly the same class as the Randy Wolf signing, except a little younger with a slightly more concerning injury history.

 

If the Brewers had been trying to win last year, people would have been absolutely furious that they were planning to start Nelson and Anderson. Just think that through and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. They did the right thing and will continue to do the right thing, and it will work out eventually because it's the right strategy. Giving Cobb that contract would have been impulsive and short-sighted.

 

That said, I wouldn't have rioted because I would trust their judgment. But that's exactly what I'm saying; they've earned the benefit of the doubt. We have incredible talent running this team.

[82brewcrew82]

I liked the add. Doesn't change that he's a giant health risk. To go with our big regression risk on Anderson... an open ended question on Nelson...and then depth that won't carry an era in the right direction. Thin thin ice.

So now he can get crushed by left handers on the road and at home? I kid........sort of. I don't mind the signing, I just like it more if Nelson is healthy and they acquired a legit TOR.

[TJseven7]

Yup

Suppan had 1 good year in his entire career. Stunning that at 32 he still sucked.

Lohse we signed at 34. 2 years he was fantastic. 36-37 is not 33.

Looper 1 year 34

Wolf 33-34 he was real good considering he threw 417 innings... 35 spent

Garza... well thats closer. At his peak he was basically zach davies good... 28 injuries short year... 29 injuries short year. 30 we got him good era but injuries short year... more injuries every single year.

 

4 out of 5 are apples to oranges. 1, was never as successful as cobb. Be jaded by our history on overpaid garbage or dudes getting a deal at the age cobb will be the next time he hits FA.

[82brewcrew82]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

Over Miley? I'd guess one or two wins. Given that they missed the playoffs by one game last year, would you have signed Cobb to that deal going into 2017?

[coolhandluke121]

Yup

Suppan had 1 good year in his entire career. Stunning that at 32 he still sucked.

Lohse we signed at 34. 2 years he was fantastic. 36-37 is not 33.

Looper 1 year 34

Wolf 33-34 he was real good considering he threw 417 innings... 35 spent

Garza... well thats closer. At his peak he was basically zach davies good... 28 injuries short year... 29 injuries short year. 30 we got him good era but injuries short year... more injuries every single year.

 

4 out of 5 are apples to oranges. 1, was never as successful as cobb. Be jaded by our history on overpaid garbage or dudes getting a deal at the age cobb will be the next time he hits FA.

 

How many of those guys had Tommy John surgery? How many draft picks did they give up? What was the quality of the in-house options then, compared to now? How many young pitching prospects did they block?

[TJseven7]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

 

5... pushes 4 spots down a peg... stengthens depth and adds his own personal contribution.

 

85 in the mix to 90 in the playoffs.

 

This is absurd and really exposes the shortcomings in your logic. Cobb is an extreme longshot to add 5 wins. That's superstar territory.

 

Can we just stop with the definitive statements already?

 

We don't know if the Brewers were even high on Cobb.

 

We don't know if Cobb was willing to even come here.

 

Consider possibilities rather than drawing wild conclusions. It's really all anyone here should be doing. No one should be making wild accusations or bold statements because we don't enough info. Perhaps the Brewers are aiming higher? Perhaps they will continue to shop for a starter who would plug in as their #1 or #2? Perhaps that acquisition will come sometime this year and make fools of all of you acting like missing out on Cobb is world-ending?

 

It's really hard to discuss something with someone when they are too busy beating their own drum to read your premise.

 

I didn't call cobb 5 war. I said 5 wins. Not wins AGAINST replacement. WINS. I see starts going to pitchers who aren't replacement level due to him not being here. Cobbs war + pushing crap out of the rotation = 5 wins.

 

2.4 last year... 3.9 peak. Last year was his biggest innings load. He can get north of 3 and our junk can get north of -1.

 

Oh and can you stop with the hypothetical nonsense of why he might not of come here. This was a money grab. Plain as day. We didn't offer the most.

 

We weren't after him... sure. Then who did we miss? Not Yu. Not Lynn. Arrieta lol? Never had a chance.

[TJseven7]

 

Yeah its garbage. As is the notable decline line. Cobb was in his first year back from TJ and didn't have the feel for his monster pitch. Hes a sinker curve change junk pitcher and they age well. Other than looking at his 2-3-4 offering driven 3.7 era... make an arguement for notable decline.

 

Brewers were challenging 1st because the cubs arms aged badly (enter Q darvish chatwood) and their offense and pen under performed. Because they turned a big time talent like Nelson into production. Because Anderson Knebel blew up. Because Davies was a junk ball rock solid guy. It wasn't due to some young pitcher. It wasn't due to hitting on retreds. It was due to polishing up existing talent like Santana Shaw Anderson Nelson Knebel. Cobb fits that a heck of a lot better than anyone else in the narrative. It was also due to some dumb luck because +.5 run diff was terribly inferior to the cubs mark. Team won a boatload of close games.

 

Cobb is 30 and has had TJ surgery. That is not someone you ever bet on to return to his prime form. It would be in roughly the same class as the Randy Wolf signing, except a little younger with a slightly more concerning injury history.

 

If the Brewers had been trying to win last year, people would have been absolutely furious that they were planning to start Nelson and Anderson. Just think that through and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. They did the right thing and will continue to do the right thing, and it will work out eventually because it's the right strategy. Giving Cobb that contract would have been impulsive and short-sighted.

 

That said, I wouldn't have rioted because I would trust their judgment. But that's exactly what I'm saying; they've earned the benefit of the doubt. We have incredible talent running this team.

 

Wolfe. Dont use bad examples. Was lights out for us at 33-34. Cobbs deal expires before 34. If you want to try it, say Garza and claim cobb will keep getting banged up and wear out like Garza did. Unfortunately Garza leaned on a FB so that doesn't fit either.

 

The rest... I've admitted its possible that we are still in rebuild. My irritation then flips to the backloaded cain deal.

[DR28]

Brewer's were not going to budge on their 3 years/48 to Cobb.

[TJseven7]

How many extra wins does Cobb provide over the current group?

Over Miley? I'd guess one or two wins. Given that they missed the playoffs by one game last year, would you have signed Cobb to that deal going into 2017?

 

Wow, you think miley can be a positive war? I'm holding out hope suter woodruff burnes can be but miley... eesh.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that it is also foolish for all fans to be penciling Chacin in as a solid #3 member of the rotation just because he's a Brewer now.

 

I basically have little faith in anyone in the opening year rotation other than Andersen and Davies and both also have short track records of success and aren't a sure thing not to regress either.

[TJseven7]

Yup

Suppan had 1 good year in his entire career. Stunning that at 32 he still sucked.

Lohse we signed at 34. 2 years he was fantastic. 36-37 is not 33.

Looper 1 year 34

Wolf 33-34 he was real good considering he threw 417 innings... 35 spent

Garza... well thats closer. At his peak he was basically zach davies good... 28 injuries short year... 29 injuries short year. 30 we got him good era but injuries short year... more injuries every single year.

 

4 out of 5 are apples to oranges. 1, was never as successful as cobb. Be jaded by our history on overpaid garbage or dudes getting a deal at the age cobb will be the next time he hits FA.

 

How many of those guys had Tommy John surgery? How many draft picks did they give up? What was the quality of the in-house options then, compared to now? How many young pitching prospects did they block?

 

How many young pitchers are we going to hand over for a guy like Duffy because we didn't sign cobb? How many games are we going to.blow watching woodruff earn a 4th arby year despite not blocking him? How long to do expect Chacin to actually block someone? How wasteful do you see using Suter as a great long man vs trying him as a starter after he had a shoulder issue because of 5 ip starts?

 

We can both play this game.

 

The only comp you can make on that list is Garza. He was a 60+% FB pitcher. That made him. That's arrieta skews... not cobb.

[And That]

Wow, you think miley can be a positive war?

At least by BPro's formula, Miley has never not had a positive WAR outside of a 0.0 in 40 innings back in 2011.

[TJseven7]

Wow, you think miley can be a positive war?

At least by BPro's formula, Miley has never not had a positive WAR outside of a 0.0 in 40 innings back in 2011.

 

How is 5.4 and 5.6 back to back seasons not a negative? That's crazy. That's like saying Garza was a positive the last 3 years. I would love to see the math that tries to prove that as reality.

 

If you can be that woeful and be a positive... I'll dock my cobb impact back to 3 wins. Can't phathom that a 3.7 for 180 innings is a 2.5 and a 5.6 for 160ip is a positive.

 

Does that make sense to anyone? Do you get gifted a few war for showing up?