Alex Cobb to the Orioles

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

@JonHeyman

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Alex Cobb has passed his physical and he is an Oriole

 

Well, that blows the "maybe he's injured" theory out of the water.

 

The only thing I can figure is that the Brewers determined that the value just wasn't there. This will be a fun bonus storyline to pay attention to as we get into the season.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If you cherry-pick away 10% of anybody's worst games they're going to look better. The Brewers missed the playoffs by exactly one game last year, so cherry picking away three tremendously awful starts doesn't do anybody any favors. That being said I still like the addition of Chacin, I'm just personally not a fan of cherry picking in this context.

I don't think that is what the poster intended. He was showing how well Chacin threw the ball last year in over 90% of the starts he made. That is a great stat for us to keep in mind because if he can repeat that, he will be a very good #3 in our rotation.

 

Here's my point though. The guy is what he is. when you start cherry picking stats it becomes an exercise in making someone look like what you want them to be. You can do this in baseball with almost any player. You can take relievers and remove their three or four worst appearances and make them into a 1.5 era guy. Everyone is guilty of it to some degree or another. Baseball stats are very volatile, especially in small samples , and single seasons are small samples , so if you remove a small sample size that doesn't support the conclusion you want to come to it's very easy to support the argument you want to make. There's a large sample of statistical data that shows that the guy is what he is. And again I'm not disappointed that we got him, he's an alright guy to have in the back of your rotation.

[gebc1997]

Ok, let's remove chacins 3 worst and 3 best starts.

 

His era in the remain 26 games is 3.32

 

3 best were 21 shutout innings

3 worst were the aforementioned 20.70 era

[TJseven7]

I'm catching up on 3 or 4 pages of this thread but what's getting to me a bit is that the people that are... puzzled (going with that word rather than attach emotion to it) that the Brewers didn't make a significant pitching acquisition all seem to want to point back to the Cain signing as the reason not getting a pitcher puzzles them so much.

 

They signed Cain on January 25th. That might as well be 100 years ago the way this off season has played out.

 

Clearly the Brewers had ideas, they knew what they wanted to do. They wanted more pitching. It just didn't happen. Hindsight, sure, I'll concede that if they knew they would fail to add a pitcher they may not have signed Cain. But I think it's reasonable to say that they felt pretty confident they'd get a pitcher. Again, it just didn't happen.

 

They can't return Cain to Amazon for a refund. Lick your wounds and make a new plan. That plan didn't include spending big money on middle rotation starting pitching.

 

Ok so...

They signed a 32 year old OF to a 80/5 deal that is backloaded and defered to keep buying power open. As you said, inducates they clearly were looking for more otherwise you'd reverse that deal. You'd front load it and push for better value down the road.

 

Then Yu goes to the cubs. We offered low, and were reported not to be all that invested. Fair enough. No reason to backload cain.

 

Lynn goes for a prove it deal. You wouldn't assume Cains backloaded to make a 10-12 mil add. That still keeps us under 110 so if we really wanted Lynn well we could have offered him enough to lock him in. No reason to backload cain.

 

Then Arrieta signs a disaster of a contract. Maybe this was our all in guy. That would make some sense but that would take the highly unlikely event of Boras caving and Arrieta basically falling in our lap for it to happen. Not a good or likely plan.

 

Cobb then comes in for a reasonable deal. You've already backloaded cain. You dont do that for giggles. You do that for buying power. The whole team gets more expensive as the years move forward. You dont save now to pay then unless you are making a push now. Yet, no cobb.

 

Salazar Archer Lynn don't cost enough to change cain. Arrieta was a hail mary... cobb was there to be had. That's puzzling.

 

Its not that they added cain that confuses me. Its how they structured cain only to accomplish nothing else that confuses me. Long window, no more buying, you front load it. Short window, buying power now, you add the finishing piece.

 

They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling. If Arrieta was the shot it was wildly optimistic. If cobb was the shot they scrooged it when bidding 7mil more probably gets it done. If I'm backloading cain... im not putzing around on that finishing piece. I'm locking that down. 16/4 cobb, cut yo, 109 mil... lets roll.

[pacopete4]

They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling.

They might've flinched when prices got above what they wanted to do. I don't think that is too puzzling. I know you like Cobb for $60M over four years but maybe the year were just something they didn't want to do with him (and I don't blame them really).

[RobDeer 45]

I think there is too much being made out of us not getting a pitcher. I don't think DS is trying "go for it." I think he saw value in Cain and Yelich so he jumped on it. He probably hoped to get a pitcher at the right price, but the deal didn't present itself. I really don't think he's trying to "go for it" and therefore isn't going to make a desperate move. He can still do a back loaded contract in hopes of a trade this year or next, or a FA acquisition next year. We aren't in a tight window with expiring contracts. Our window is just opening. I think it would be a poor move to make an aggressive move right now, with how this team is setup. We are a small market team that needs to be patient and build through the draft and acquisition of young players. Sprinkle in some veteran moves, when the right player is available (Cain) and hope our youth can develop in to quality players.

[torts]

we all need to stop worrying about Lorenzo Cains 5 year deal. His contract is built to allow the Brewers to trade him/his contract and is distributed pretty evenly over the 5 years (it is not backloaded like previously said). So essentially after 2019 he can be traded to pretty much anyone. Even if he's only "good" in 2020, he's still worth $16 million. His contract does not prevent us from signing anyone this year or in the future and was the right move to make this winter.

 

no-trade protection: may block deals to all clubs in 2018, 15 clubs in 2019, 7 clubs in 2020 and 5 clubs each in 2021 and 2022

[topper09er]

Ok, let's remove chacins 3 worst and 3 best starts.

 

His era in the remain 26 games is 3.32

 

3 best were 21 shutout innings

3 worst were the aforementioned 20.70 era

 

The point is you need to do this for every player in the league and then see what the average and elite ERA numbers are. You are still treating 3.32 like the great number it is overall, but it may not be as good if you compare it to the MLB average after removing the best/worst 3 starts.

[JosephC]

@JonHeyman

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Alex Cobb has passed his physical and he is an Oriole

 

Well, that blows the "maybe he's injured" theory out of the water.

 

The only thing I can figure is that the Brewers determined that the value just wasn't there. This will be a fun bonus storyline to pay attention to as we get into the season.

 

I think it's even more likely that Stearns just ran out of money. Adding 15 million for Cobb likely puts them over 105 million (depending on when deferred payments need to be funded), limits trade deadline moves and causes problems with arbitration raises down the road. The highest the Brewers opening day payroll has ever been was 104 million in 2015. The difference between then and now is the 2015 team had well over 30 million in payroll coming off the books at the end of the season (Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse, Gerardo Parra) so the team didn't have to worry about payroll stress in 2016.

[torts]

great resource to get a visualization of our teams contract terms

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/yearly/payroll/

[TJseven7]

They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling.

They might've flinched when prices got above what they wanted to do. I don't think that is too puzzling. I know you like Cobb for $60M over four years but maybe the year were just something they didn't want to do with him (and I don't blame them really).

 

But again... you are backloading a 32 year old for what? The off chance the market completely evaporates and a steal falls in your lap. That's pretty dumb. If the steal comes you make it fit, you don't backload a deal then hold to incredibly frugal offers.

 

If we paid Cain 20 17 15 15 13 I wouldn't disagree one bit. Payroll would be at 102 and we'd be watching his deal decline as he aged and our roster pushed up arby prices. Sitting at 95 mil leaves us short now and hurts us then.

 

If it wasn't cobb... because we clearly didn't fight for him... who is the 15mil arm that makes this make sense... that we also didn't get.

[And That]

I made the point with Odorizzi, and I'll make the point with Cobb as well. With Matt Arnold as the Brewers' AGM, the Brewers should have insights into Rays' pitching that other teams do not. Whether they are valid insights I guess depends on what you think of Matt Arnold, but that the Brewers did not give a pittance for Odorizzi or give Cobb $50 million tells me that at a high level the Brewers just weren't sold on either. For whatever reason. Could be something to do with the fact that Arnold ran the Rays' biomechanical/human movement analysis team from 2009 until he joined the Brewers and surely would know details on both of those guys that he could have passed on to the Brewers' medical team. Pitching coach Derek Johnson is also a biomechanical guy, so between he and Arnold perhaps the decision was to pass on both. We'll never know.

 

Going in to the offseason, I was fully expecting the Brewers to add at least one starting pitcher. They didn't, and I will admit to being a little disappointed by it. However, not adding a starting pitcher now does not mean the Brewers' pitching is awful or uncompetitive with other playoff-caliber teams, and there will be multiple opportunities to add more pitching through the end of July.

 

It's also important to remember that the Brewers' window for contention looks to stretch over the next several years, and money/prospect capital they spend now will not be available later. Maybe they have a plan to go all-in on Keuchel next offseason and wouldn't be able to get him if they spent money now. Again, I'm disappointed the Brewers weren't able to add a pitcher now, but I am willing to keep an open mind as to why, and to the fact that it might be part of a bigger plan.

 

Or maybe they're just cheap knobs lining Attanasio's pockets and we're all suckers. We'll find out.

[torts]

They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling.

They might've flinched when prices got above what they wanted to do. I don't think that is too puzzling. I know you like Cobb for $60M over four years but maybe the year were just something they didn't want to do with him (and I don't blame them really).

 

But again... you are backloading a 32 year old for what? The off chance the market completely evaporates and a steal falls in your lap. That's pretty dumb. If the steal comes you make it fit, you don't backload a deal then hold to incredibly frugal offers.

 

If we paid Cain 20 17 15 15 13 I wouldn't disagree one bit. Payroll would be at 102 and we'd be watching his deal decline as he aged and our roster pushed up arby prices. Sitting at 95 mil leaves us short now and hurts us then.

 

If it wasn't cobb... because we clearly didn't fight for him... who is the 15mil arm that makes this make sense... that we also didn't get.

 

we're paying Cain 14 15 16 17 18, that is not backloading a contract, so you should stop describing it as so. If they did 12 13 15 18 22 then yeah... but they didnt, its an even distributed increase across 5 years.

[SeaBass]

I'm catching up on 3 or 4 pages of this thread but what's getting to me a bit is that the people that are... puzzled (going with that word rather than attach emotion to it) that the Brewers didn't make a significant pitching acquisition all seem to want to point back to the Cain signing as the reason not getting a pitcher puzzles them so much.

 

They signed Cain on January 25th. That might as well be 100 years ago the way this off season has played out.

 

Clearly the Brewers had ideas, they knew what they wanted to do. They wanted more pitching. It just didn't happen. Hindsight, sure, I'll concede that if they knew they would fail to add a pitcher they may not have signed Cain. But I think it's reasonable to say that they felt pretty confident they'd get a pitcher. Again, it just didn't happen.

 

They can't return Cain to Amazon for a refund. Lick your wounds and make a new plan. That plan didn't include spending big money on middle rotation starting pitching.

 

Ok so...

They signed a 32 year old OF to a 80/5 deal that is backloaded and defered to keep buying power open. As you said, inducates they clearly were looking for more otherwise you'd reverse that deal. You'd front load it and push for better value down the road.

 

Then Yu goes to the cubs. We offered low, and were reported not to be all that invested. Fair enough. No reason to backload cain.

 

Lynn goes for a prove it deal. You wouldn't assume Cains backloaded to make a 10-12 mil add. That still keeps us under 110 so if we really wanted Lynn well we could have offered him enough to lock him in. No reason to backload cain.

 

Then Arrieta signs a disaster of a contract. Maybe this was our all in guy. That would make some sense but that would take the highly unlikely event of Boras caving and Arrieta basically falling in our lap for it to happen. Not a good or likely plan.

 

Cobb then comes in for a reasonable deal. You've already backloaded cain. You dont do that for giggles. You do that for buying power. The whole team gets more expensive as the years move forward. You dont save now to pay then unless you are making a push now. Yet, no cobb.

 

Salazar Archer Lynn don't cost enough to change cain. Arrieta was a hail mary... cobb was there to be had. That's puzzling.

 

Its not that they added cain that confuses me. Its how they structured cain only to accomplish nothing else that confuses me. Long window, no more buying, you front load it. Short window, buying power now, you add the finishing piece.

 

They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling. If Arrieta was the shot it was wildly optimistic. If cobb was the shot they scrooged it when bidding 7mil more probably gets it done. If I'm backloading cain... im not putzing around on that finishing piece. I'm locking that down. 16/4 cobb, cut yo, 109 mil... lets roll.

 

It's understandable to be puzzled, I just don't think pointing at the Cain signing is the winning argument folks are projecting it to be when trying to support the moves they wanted to see the club make afterwards.

 

I do also feel a little let down they couldn't get something done. Not necessarily Cobb, but something.

 

Saying Cobb's deal is reasonable is a subjective opinion, which you are entitled to but that leaves lots of room for disagreement.

 

I saw one legitimate report that connected the Brewers to Cobb all off season and all it said was they had been in contact with his representatives. So they checked in on him early in the off season and that was pretty much it, every other thing said about the Brewers and Cobb was mostly speculation, with a bit of rumor and trolling mixed in for good measure.

 

Thing is, Cobb ended up getting his asking price. It took a long time but he got what he went into the off season wanting. If the Brewers liked his asking price way earlier when they actually checked in on him they would have conceivably signed him before they signed Cain. So I don't believe they flinched he just wasn't someone they particularly wanted at the price it would have taken to get him.

 

They still have room to make moves. Lot of season yet to play out.

[TJseven7]

we all need to stop worrying about Lorenzo Cains 5 year deal. His contract is built to allow the Brewers to trade him/his contract and is distributed pretty evenly over the 5 years (it is not backloaded like previously said). So essentially after 2019 he can be traded to pretty much anyone. Even if he's only "good" in 2020, he's still worth $16 million. His contract does not prevent us from signing anyone this year or in the future and was the right move to make this winter.

 

no-trade protection: may block deals to all clubs in 2018, 15 clubs in 2019, 7 clubs in 2020 and 5 clubs each in 2021 and 2022

 

13 14 15 16 17 +5 mil defered... if thats not backloaded, up is down.

 

Now would trading a player who is 34 be easier and also more profitable if they cost 3 years at 48 mil or 3 years at 42 mil. At 35, 2 years and 33 mil or 2 years and 27 mil.

 

Glad we saved money in our lowest payroll year of the next 3!

[DR28]

I made the point with Odorizzi, and I'll make the point with Cobb as well. With Matt Arnold as the Brewers' AGM, the Brewers should have insights into Rays' pitching that other teams do not. Whether they are valid insights I guess depends on what you think of Matt Arnold, but that the Brewers did not give a pittance for Odorizzi or give Cobb $50 million tells me that at a high level the Brewers just weren't sold on either. For whatever reason. Could be something to do with the fact that Arnold ran the Rays' biomechanical/human movement analysis team from 2009 until he joined the Brewers and surely would know details on both of those guys that he could have passed on to the Brewers' medical team. Pitching coach Derek Johnson is also a biomechanical guy, so between he and Arnold perhaps the decision was to pass on both. We'll never know.

 

Going in to the offseason, I was fully expecting the Brewers to add at least one starting pitcher. They didn't, and I will admit to being a little disappointed by it. However, not adding a starting pitcher now does not mean the Brewers' pitching is awful or uncompetitive with other playoff-caliber teams, and there will be multiple opportunities to add more pitching through the end of July.

 

It's also important to remember that the Brewers' window for contention looks to stretch over the next several years, and money/prospect capital they spend now will not be available later. Maybe they have a plan to go all-in on Keuchel next offseason and wouldn't be able to get him if they spent money now. Again, I'm disappointed the Brewers weren't able to add a pitcher now, but I am willing to keep an open mind as to why, and to the fact that it might be part of a bigger plan.

 

Or maybe they're just cheap knobs lining Attanasio's pockets and we're all suckers. We'll find out.

 

We won't come anywhere close to getting a deal done... Next winter we'll be up against all the big markets.

[82brewcrew82]

To me it's just a bunch of people saying "I've heard of Cobb, Lynn, and Arrieta, but I've never really heard of Suter and Woodruff, so the Brewers better sign someone". That's more of an "on paper" move though. Those guys probably aren't worth the effort of getting upset about, at least not at the price they got. Other options will come along if the Brewers are still in it in July, and if they're not, then Cobb, Lynn, or Arrieta wouldn't have helped much anyway and would have been a waste of a pick.

With all due respect, that is garbage.

 

It's not "garbage" dude. You know what's garbage? Over-paying and wasting draft picks on injured/aging guys in notable decline in free agency, especially when you're a small market.

 

Why are the Brewers in this position in the first place? Everyone thought they were supposed to tank, but last season was a testament to how buy-low guys and under-the-radar steals are not only better values than retreads, injury risks, and guys on the decline, they're often better, period. And people want to turn right around after all the success they had last year and waste money and draft picks on 30-something free agent pitchers with all kinds of red flags, going back to the logic that basically squandered one of the best minor league systems this century in Mark A's first 10 years. It blows my mind. At least Garza and Suppan and Wolf and Lohse were totally healthy.

To come on here and suggest folks don't know the difference between Woodruff and Cobb is garbage.

 

Let me ask you a question. Have you seen me advocating for them to sign "30-something pitcher with all kinds of red flags"? No, no you have not. I'm not saying any of the FA pitchers this off season would have been good choices. What I am saying is that this rotation isn't up to snuff. Period. We can talk about WHY it isn't up to snuff, but the collection of arms they are attempting to pass off as competitive is, if I'm being kind, less than ideal. Sure, we can look at Guerra and Miley as values but what are the non-marginal differences between those two and Peralta and Milone at the start of last year? The only difference is that the current team is expected to contend.

[torts]

we all need to stop worrying about Lorenzo Cains 5 year deal. His contract is built to allow the Brewers to trade him/his contract and is distributed pretty evenly over the 5 years (it is not backloaded like previously said). So essentially after 2019 he can be traded to pretty much anyone. Even if he's only "good" in 2020, he's still worth $16 million. His contract does not prevent us from signing anyone this year or in the future and was the right move to make this winter.

 

no-trade protection: may block deals to all clubs in 2018, 15 clubs in 2019, 7 clubs in 2020 and 5 clubs each in 2021 and 2022

 

13 14 15 16 17 +5 mil defered... if thats not backloaded, up is down.

 

Now would trading a player who is 34 be easier and also more profitable if they cist 3 years at 48 mil or 3 years at 42 mil. At 35, 2 years and 33 mil or 2 years and 27 mil.

 

Glad we saved money in our lowest payroll year of the next 3!

 

that is not backloaded. MLB is not in a cap era, so deferring money has no real impact year to year (ie to skirt under cap rules), and is common practice for most big contracts. Braun is getting deffered money until 2031 even though his contract rate goes down each of the last two years, does that make his contract backloaded? I dont think so. No one looks at deferred monies as backloading contracts. If anything, the $1 mil a year or whatever it is, is basically negligible and unnoticed to 99.9% of teams and their fans.

[torts]

no one in Cincinnati is complaining that their team is still paying Griffey 3.5 mil a year through 2025 because it really has no lasting impact on team payroll.

[82brewcrew82]

Going in to the offseason, I was fully expecting the Brewers to add at least one starting pitcher. They didn't, and I will admit to being a little disappointed by it. However, not adding a starting pitcher now does not mean the Brewers' pitching is awful or uncompetitive with other playoff-caliber teams, and there will be multiple opportunities to add more pitching through the end of July.

I'm not saying their pitching is awful. I like Anderson and Davies. I'm optimistic about Chacin and the bullpen should be good. I just think the last two rotation spots are awful, and yes, that does go a long way toward making their pitching less than competitive with the upper echelon teams. I mean, Washington, LA, Chicago; those teams 4th best starter is probably our best starter. Heck, we have a thread talking about picking up scraps off of their rotation to make ours better.

[SeaBass]

I'm seeing Buster Olney reporting about deferred money being involved in Cobb's deal as well. It's a non-factor. Deferred money actually saves teams money.

[istanbultaye]

The Brewers are still paying Aramis Ramirez and Kyle Lohse this year apparently. Kyle Lohse's deferred money was another reminder to Attanasio not to spend money on FA pitchers!

[DR28]

I'm seeing Buster Olney reporting about deferred money being involved in Cobb's deal as well. It's a non-factor. Deferred money actually saves teams money.

 

$20 mil deferred.

[TJseven7]

"They still have room to make moves. Lot of season yet to play out."

 

And none of it will cost prospect capitol equivalent to Braden Webb. You want Samardjia plus 5 mil per for Braden Webb? That's what Braden Webb would get you.

 

Having the ability to trade Chacin and 1 of Davies Nelson Anderson. Helps the farm continue to restock. Being able to cut that 8-10-11.5 mil, plus 2mil villar, 2 mil sogard, 2.5 mil vogt, 2 mil villar, 2 mil Miley, 1 mil Logan, 1.5 mil Jeffress for woodruff burnes hiura nottingham dubon peralta williams houser helps keep the payroll down. That's 21 mil. That matters to small market teams. Cap wasn't the only thing at play here.

[istanbultaye]

I'm not saying their pitching is awful. I like Anderson and Davies. I'm optimistic about Chacin and the bullpen should be good. I just think the last two rotation spots are awful, and yes, that does go a long way toward making their pitching less than competitive with the upper echelon teams. I mean, Washington, LA, Chicago; those teams 4th best starter is probably our best starter. Heck, we have a thread talking about picking up scraps off of their rotation to make ours better.

 

I will grant you Tanner Roak and Jose Quintana being competitive with the upper end of our current rotation, but I will not grant you Rich Hill...