Alex Cobb to the Orioles

[DuWayne Steurer]

There's absolutely no indication that Cobb wanted to, or would come to Milwaukee. Fans always think "we could have matched that offer" or thinks it's a simple matter of tacking on a million dollars more. Maybe it would have taken ten million more to move him off the east coast and come to the midwest, we honestly don't know, unless he comes out and says so, or Stearns does, but I'm guessing that doesn't happen. Maybe the Brewers had a similar offer, and he wanted to stay out east. Maybe the Brewers are cheap, and were somewhere around 3/42. We don't know, so it's dangerous to assume anything.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Cain and Yelich were smart risks. The pitchers were not. So they got Cain and Yelich and I'm sure it will work itself out eventually.

 

I remember when all those relievers were signing for $5m+ per season in November and December and some people here were impatient and angry that the Brewers weren't signing any of them. It's just instant gratification. Patience and discipline are crucial to a small market team's success and they showed it in spades this offseason.

I specifically said with regard to the rotation.

 

Yes but my original post was in response to someone who basically said "why trade for Yelich and sign Cain if you weren't going to sign one of the top starters?" I believe Yelich and Cain are smart risks and the starters are not, and that's why they did it. These guys are really disciplined and intelligent. Everything is a gamble and it might not all work out, but I believe they are placing the right bets and that pays off in the long run.

 

They didn't see fit to sign any of these guys, and they get the benefit of the doubt easily. With the work they've done in such a short amount of time, it's going to take a long time before I start to doubt them.

[TJseven7]

 

Cain and Yelich were smart risks. The pitchers were not. So they got Cain and Yelich and I'm sure it will work itself out eventually.

 

I remember when all those relievers were signing for $5m+ per season in November and December and some people here were impatient and angry that the Brewers weren't signing any of them. It's just instant gratification. Patience and discipline are crucial to a small market team's success and they showed it in spades this offseason.

I specifically said with regard to the rotation.

 

Yes but my original post was in response to someone who basically said "why trade for Yelich and sign Cain if you weren't going to sign one of the top starters?" I believe Yelich and Cain are smart risks and the starters are not, and that's why they did it. These guys are really disciplined and intelligent. Everything is a gamble and it might not all work out, but I believe they are placing the right bets and that pays off in the long run.

 

They didn't see fit to sign any of these guys, and they get the benefit of the doubt easily. With the work they've done in such a short amount of time, it's going to take a long time before I start to doubt them.

 

Cain is a 80/5. Hes not young. As age increases the deal increases. Its pretty easy to see years 4 and 5 aren't the good part of this deal. Nelson is also controlled 3 years. Many others jump into the discussion at 4 years of control. It looks like a 3 year window before choices need to be made.

 

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

[FVBrewerFan]

There's absolutely no indication that Cobb wanted to, or would come to Milwaukee. Fans always think "we could have matched that offer" or thinks it's a simple matter of tacking on a million dollars more. Maybe it would have taken ten million more to move him off the east coast and come to the midwest, we honestly don't know, unless he comes out and says so, or Stearns does, but I'm guessing that doesn't happen. Maybe the Brewers had a similar offer, and he wanted to stay out east. Maybe the Brewers are cheap, and were somewhere around 3/42. We don't know, so it's dangerous to assume anything.

 

Truer words have never been spoken. We've all become internet GMs to one degree or another, when the truth is none of us come close to knowing how these deals get done or don't get done. What the plan is, how it changes, and what come next.

 

Throwing around ideas and theories is fun, and can make for some good conversation. Just seems lately there's so many conclusive statements made in the line of "of course so and so should have been signed." Reminds of a line from a movie you may know. "You looked the kid in the eye and said you knew, and you didn't. You didn't."

[pacopete4]

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

You post as if it is a certainty that adding any one of those FA pitchers would have pushed us over the top. Maybe, but maybe not. But these posts scream, I didn’t get my way so now the path they have chosen won’t work out because I said so. Like a few others have posted I think we need to take a step back and realize that timing is everything and Stearns didn’t like the market on these guys and that’s okay.

[82brewcrew82]

 

Cain and Yelich were smart risks. The pitchers were not. So they got Cain and Yelich and I'm sure it will work itself out eventually.

 

I remember when all those relievers were signing for $5m+ per season in November and December and some people here were impatient and angry that the Brewers weren't signing any of them. It's just instant gratification. Patience and discipline are crucial to a small market team's success and they showed it in spades this offseason.

I specifically said with regard to the rotation.

 

Yes but my original post was in response to someone who basically said "why trade for Yelich and sign Cain if you weren't going to sign one of the top starters?" I believe Yelich and Cain are smart risks and the starters are not, and that's why they did it. These guys are really disciplined and intelligent. Everything is a gamble and it might not all work out, but I believe they are placing the right bets and that pays off in the long run.

 

They didn't see fit to sign any of these guys, and they get the benefit of the doubt easily. With the work they've done in such a short amount of time, it's going to take a long time before I start to doubt them.

I don't think it's difficult to envision a scenario where signing a soon to be 32 year old outfielder with a bit of an injury history to a five year $80m contract might be considered an unwise risk. Perhaps if the team were more complete a move like that could be viewed as a "get us over the hump" move and be viewed in a different light.

[wildcat83]

I'm glad we didn't give Cobb that or more. We probably could have afforded it, but for what improvements? Especially over 4 years. It takes away any flexibility that we have. What if we sign him then have a position player pull a Villar of last year and need a bullpen piece or two? There's no way we would afford deadline additions. Then in 19-21 we are paying him 15 per for stats that Woodruff and Burnes can match. I believe our rotation can hold up and now we still have deadline flexibility. Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned.

[JohnBriggs12]

Finally it’s over!! Now let’s get rid of Broxton and villar and go to work with this team!

 

Dilly Dilly

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers know a lot more about Nelson's health than they are saying. There will also be arms available in July. I'm hoping they go with Suter and Guerra but I can live with either Woodruff or Miley too.

[KeithStone53151]

I would actually argue that not making a move was equally as bold as making a move for arrieta or darvish. Adding cobb or Lynn would have been a tweener type move, not bold at all. Now the question will be whether it was a smart move. I've generally disagreed with the moves and overall philosophy of this off season, but I'm doing my best to embrace them as I'm still a brewer fan and want to win.

Doing nothing isn't bold, it's the easy play. Having said that, I have no problem with not getting Cobb but doing nothing with regard to the rotation was never the answer. I'm a fan too but I'm never going to accept that the back end of the rotation is anything other than horse fodder and that ain't cause I want to lose.

 

I would argue it's very difficult not to waste resources on a b level upgrade that may not be that much better than what we have just to do something to upgrade a perceived weak spot. He's clearly trusting the brewers scouting that Cobb doesn't move the needle enough as an upgrade over what we have, despite all public sources unanimously agreeing that our rotation is a problem. We have the payroll space, we definitely could have snagged Lynn and probably gotten involved on Cobb, but he stuck with our guys for better or worse. As another poster noted, if woodruff, suter, Miley, guerra, burnes, etc are all terrible this year... cobb wouldn't have mattered anyway as that group will likely pitch a lot of innings.

[reillymcshane]

I would have been okay with Cobb at 4/$55-50M, but it would not have thrilled me. I just don't see a lot of upside. He certainly would have been a good player to have, but I hate shelling out $14-15M a year to a guy who isn't that good.

 

While I'm concerned about the rotation, i also feel that if this club is going to win it needs to develop good, young players - and we have numerous starting pitchers that fit that bill. Burnes, Ortiz, Woodruff - maybe even Suter. With Nelson hopefully due back by the break, I feel that we can take the risk and go with what we have. It's not my favorite option - I just don't trust Guerra/Miley/Suter in the rotation - but I will give it a try.

 

In the end, Cobb doesn't put us over the top. He's not making us a great team or anything. Again, he'd be a fine addition - but I understand passing at his price.

 

I really value financial flexibility - and I'd rather see us be able to add someone special - such as Houston adding Verdlander last year - than go with someone I think is good - but not great. Lots of risks - but that's okay. I'm just going to have fun with it.

[rickh150]

Boy, it is tough to see how we can believe that we are much more than a .500 team with a middling farm system. To make big moves like adding Yelich and Cain without seriously addressing the pitching is really puzzling. To top it off, we might be handing Aguilar over to another team in a couple of weeks while sitting Santana on opening day. Most Brewers fans can'f be pleased with the offseason so far, correct?

 

Something big has to happen yet in the next two weeks. Just has to...

[3and2Fastball]

Boy, it is tough to see how we can believe that we are much more than a .500 team with a middling farm system. To make big moves like adding Yelich and Cain without seriously addressing the pitching is really puzzling. To top it off, we might be handing Aguilar over to another team in a couple of weeks while sitting Santana on opening day. Most Brewers fans can'f be pleased with the offseason so far, correct?

 

Something big has to happen yet in the next two weeks. Just has to...

 

I don't think it is going to. Stearns' plan is to "stick with the plan", and the plan just might be that this is another rebuilding year as we wait another season for Burnes & Hiura to be ready.

 

I think a lot of Brewers fans will be very disappointed in the 2018 season, but I trust that 2019-2021 will make the growing pains seem worth it.

 

I just want one World Championship. I don't care about contending for the wild card year in and year out, just want to win it all one time!

[liveforoctober]

There has got to be an underlying reason. 4/60 is not that bad and could have been done by the Brewers. There's a red flag someone saw or he just didn't want to be here. Thinking about it some more, was it that 4th year that was the deal breaker?

 

Not to sound trite, but I think the fact that he only put up .6 WAR better than Brent Suter last year in twice the innings but was asking to get paid roughly 30x what Suter is making this year will do it.

 

He is basically a 2 WAR/yr pitcher. So is Jhoulys Chacin. If you are using WAR as your metric... Chacin was a more valuable pitcher last year than Alex Cobb was. Financially sound teams don't give $14+ mil a year to 2 WAR pitchers.

 

I think this was simply a math move. The nerds in the FO have numbers for every player and if the numbers make sense, you get the player. They determined Chacin was worth $xx/yr for Y years and when he agreed to those numbers ... they signed him. They probably decided Alex Cobb was worth $xx/yr for Y years and Cobb was asking over whatever the numbers they had concocted were telling them, therefore no deal.

 

I don't know if it is right or wrong but Stearns doesn't seem to be a guy who makes moves based on emotion. I think Counsell and Stearns feel they can piece together a #4 starter/platoon/whatever that will deliver a 2 WAR season .. which is what Cobb would have given you, and they will save $14 million/yr doing it.

[adambr2]

Boy, it is tough to see how we can believe that we are much more than a .500 team with a middling farm system. To make big moves like adding Yelich and Cain without seriously addressing the pitching is really puzzling. To top it off, we might be handing Aguilar over to another team in a couple of weeks while sitting Santana on opening day. Most Brewers fans can'f be pleased with the offseason so far, correct?

 

Something big has to happen yet in the next two weeks. Just has to...

 

I don't think it is going to. Stearns' plan is to "stick with the plan", and the plan just might be that this is another rebuilding year as we wait another season for Burnes & Hiura to be ready.

 

I think a lot of Brewers fans will be very disappointed in the 2018 season, but I trust that 2019-2021 will make the growing pains seem worth it.

 

I just want one World Championship. I don't care about contending for the wild card year in and year out, just want to win it all one time!

 

This may very well be it, and I think you can make a very good case that the Yelich deal, to get a player of that caliber and age, was made more as a big picture move than a move with the immediate future in mind.

 

That said, if 2018 is still considered a 'rebuilding' season, the Cain deal is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I like Cain a lot, but I like him a lot more for the next 2 seasons than I do for the following 3. I supported the deal, but did so presuming that other deals to target a run this year were to follow.

 

As I said before I'll defer to the judgement of Stearns until we see what happens, but if 2018 is still a rebuilding year I think you could certainly make a strong argument that just rolling with Yelich in CF, keeping our existing outfielders up here and saving the $80M invested in Cain would have been a better long-term strategy.

[TJseven7]

There's absolutely no indication that Cobb wanted to, or would come to Milwaukee. Fans always think "we could have matched that offer" or thinks it's a simple matter of tacking on a million dollars more. Maybe it would have taken ten million more to move him off the east coast and come to the midwest, we honestly don't know, unless he comes out and says so, or Stearns does, but I'm guessing that doesn't happen. Maybe the Brewers had a similar offer, and he wanted to stay out east. Maybe the Brewers are cheap, and were somewhere around 3/42. We don't know, so it's dangerous to assume anything.

 

I'm sorry but "anything's possible" isn't a take. You can argue that he didn't want to be here with equal validity as I can argue he's a lizard person who needs to go back to his home planet in 2 years, thus why mke wouldn't sign him betond 2. You have zero evidence, so do I.

 

Baltimore sucks. The Ravens and the Os don't get bargains. FA has not shown them to be a sought home. If MKE is below a Balt team that's terrible and about to lose 2 of their best players then we might as well give up ever signing anyone. We can be a Rays A's like MLB farm team. Hooray!

 

You don't hold out this long to go to the place you want to be. You hold out like this to get paid. Every part of this points to MONEY. High bidder was getting this guy. It wasn't us. 57/4... so your question is do you bid 60 to 64. My answer's yes.

[TJseven7]

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

You post as if it is a certainty that adding any one of those FA pitchers would have pushed us over the top. Maybe, but maybe not. But these posts scream, I didn’t get my way so now the path they have chosen won’t work out because I said so. Like a few others have posted I think we need to take a step back and realize that timing is everything and Stearns didn’t like the market on these guys and that’s okay.

 

Depends what you mean by over the top. I've made it pretty clear that I think not having Cobb and having cobb is the difference between starting the season saying mke is in the mix for the playoffs and mke is a playoff team. Is that over the top? Nope. But its where you want to enter the year as a rising team. You give your team a chance to put you over the top. You dont leave them shorthanded and hope they can take you the rest of the way.

 

Screams I didn't get my guy... clearly you didnt read that before any of these guys were signed I wanted this dude at this price. I had turned my nose up at all 3 other deals for a reason or two. NONE fit this team.

 

I've also written out the demands placed on this staff, what they need to do and how horribly optimistic it is to think this group can hit the numbers we need to achieve to be a playoff team as is. The staff is short. If you catch some big breaks then you get to where you need to be instead of push beyond merely being a playoff team. You dont catch breaks, you're 500.

 

This deal... I'm wondering what their excuse is. There is nothing wrong with this deal. He has upside. Sub 15 aav. Same age as Darvish who got 6 years. Not stupid like Arrietas deal. Not a waste of a pick on a 1 year deal like Lynn. NOTHING wrong with this deal.

 

You want to hit the numbers you need this staff at... a 3.7 guy takes you a long long way towards it... but I'm sure suter will be sub 4 right? Guerra will be an ace again right? Woodruff or Burnes will just jump in and be a 3.7 right? Miley now that's a get, right? Cobb 3.7 floor. Add cobb and any surprise covers regression or makes you a threat.

 

You want to pretend this pieces rotation can hold up fine. I'm not buying it. Maybe you want to spit up woodruff burnes grisham dubon peralta for a young controlled arm in july. I dont. Not when you could have it done at 110mil payroll in March.

 

Explanations that are valid:

They didnt like cobb... if he blows I'll own it.

They think we suck and this is a rebuild year. Maybe until Nelson is back and Burnes Peralta (FP in the pen) and Hiura are up we don't have it. Then why sign a 32 year old OF to a BACK LOADED DEFERED deal. Write that contracr BACKWARDS. That doesn't add up. That points to a mistake.

They think they are smarter than everyone in the league and have stuff that's far better than anyone thinks it is. ANYONE. Good luck. Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley. Good luck.

They are CHEAP!

 

Those are your possibilities. Pick 1.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Great post by TJ77!

[Never Outhustled]

I'm not at all concerned we didn't add Cobb because I believe Suter is Mark Buerle or at least a large fraction of him.

[Mr Southpaw]

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

Explanations that are valid:

They didnt like cobb... if he blows I'll own it.

They think we suck and this is a rebuild year. Maybe until Nelson is back and Burnes Peralta (FP in the pen) and Hiura are up we don't have it. Then why sign a 32 year old OF to a BACK LOADED DEFERED deal. Write that contracr BACKWARDS. That doesn't add up. That points to a mistake.

They think they are smarter than everyone in the league and have stuff that's far better than anyone thinks it is. ANYONE. Good luck. Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley. Good luck.

They are CHEAP!

 

Those are your possibilities. Pick 1.

 

I will pick number five, Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley., for $200 Alex.

 

Suter does not have multiple years of experience with huge quantities of inning, but his era is 2016 was 3.32, 2017 was 3.42, and this spring training 2018 is 3.00. Chance of accomplishing an era of under 3.71 this year, 70%. Chances of era of under 4.00, 85%.

 

Guerra was our opening day starter last year after a 2016 with am era of 2.81, 5.21 in 2017 (injured most of the year), and this spring training has a 2.45 era. Chances of accomplishing an era of 3.71 this year, 90% (when his elbow gives out, he is done). Chance his elbow lasts until Nelson returns, 75%.

 

Woodruff is about what Nelson was as a rookie (2016 4.62). Woodruff in 2017 had a 4.81 era. Chance of accomplishing an era of 3.71, 10%. Chance of era under 4.00, 35%.

 

Burnes has no MLB data. Chance of 3.71 era, 10%.

 

Miley gets cut and you do not give him a chance with his track record.

 

FINAL SUMMATION Sutor and Guerra are not pretty choices, but they can be a short to mid term option until Nelson returns and the youngsters are ready.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm glad we didn't give Cobb that or more. We probably could have afforded it, but for what improvements? Especially over 4 years. It takes away any flexibility that we have. What if we sign him then have a position player pull a Villar of last year and need a bullpen piece or two? There's no way we would afford deadline additions. Then in 19-21 we are paying him 15 per for stats that Woodruff and Burnes can match. I believe our rotation can hold up and now we still have deadline flexibility. Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned.

 

Great post. It's not the automatic upgrade that people are making it out to be, and they weren't closing the gap on the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals anyway.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Cain is a 80/5. Hes not young. As age increases the deal increases. Its pretty easy to see years 4 and 5 aren't the good part of this deal. Nelson is also controlled 3 years. Many others jump into the discussion at 4 years of control. It looks like a 3 year window before choices need to be made.

 

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

 

First off, as others have said, this does NOT necessarily mean they cost themselves 1 year. There's a ton of uncertainty around guys on severe declines like Arrieta and guys coming off TJ surgery like Lynn and Cobb. There's no comparison between those guys and the guys the Brewers acquired.

 

As for Cain, he had possibly his best season and is still one of the elite athletes in baseball. I agree about age in general, but everything should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. CF's of his caliber are extremely rare and great to have. He just had his best OBP, played 15 more games than he's ever played before, had a 26:2 SB:CS ratio, and displayed sprint speed in the top 5% of all MLB outfielders. If he took one of those facebook quizzes on "true age", he'd probably churn out a 28.

 

To me it's just a bunch of people saying "I've heard of Cobb, Lynn, and Arrieta, but I've never really heard of Suter and Woodruff, so the Brewers better sign someone". That's more of an "on paper" move though. Those guys probably aren't worth the effort of getting upset about, at least not at the price they got. Other options will come along if the Brewers are still in it in July, and if they're not, then Cobb, Lynn, or Arrieta wouldn't have helped much anyway and would have been a waste of a pick.

[pacopete4]

A lot of people have begged the organization to let their young pitchers get a chance and that group may very well get their wish. Maybe not right away but soon we could have Woofruff, Burnes, Suter and of course Nelson.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

To me it's just a bunch of people saying "I've heard of Cobb, Lynn, and Arrieta, but I've never really heard of Suter and Woodruff, so the Brewers better sign someone". That's more of an "on paper" move though. Those guys probably aren't worth the effort of getting upset about, at least not at the price they got. Other options will come along if the Brewers are still in it in July, and if they're not, then Cobb, Lynn, or Arrieta wouldn't have helped much anyway and would have been a waste of a pick.

 

Here are my thoughts ... if the plan is to go with Suter, Woodruff or even Guerra, I can understand why this did it. Stearns's mantra has been young and controllable talent, and those guys arguably fall in line with that (maybe not Guerra, but whatever). If the plan is to gift Miley with a rotation spot, when he really hasn't shown much outside his career norms (can get outs, but prone to blow-ups), then it's a big step backwards. If they are going to grow a contender, they need to groom homegrown guys who will be effective and affordable, and not play below-average band-aids. Miley is the type of move Doug Melvin would have made in 2004 when the next best home-grown option pulling up Chris Saenz or Ben Hendrickson from AA. I mean, you don't tell your fanbase that you aren't going to acquire a pitcher unless they are a "needle mover", then go with a guy like Miley as your #4.

 

They may very well be able to trade for a TOR-type pitcher, but that pitcher will more than likely either be already on an expensive contract, or getting very close to it. It is also going to cost a much larger sum than whatever their 4th round draft pick would bring in.

[TJseven7]

Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

Explanations that are valid:

They didnt like cobb... if he blows I'll own it.

They think we suck and this is a rebuild year. Maybe until Nelson is back and Burnes Peralta (FP in the pen) and Hiura are up we don't have it. Then why sign a 32 year old OF to a BACK LOADED DEFERED deal. Write that contracr BACKWARDS. That doesn't add up. That points to a mistake.

They think they are smarter than everyone in the league and have stuff that's far better than anyone thinks it is. ANYONE. Good luck. Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley. Good luck.

They are CHEAP!

 

Those are your possibilities. Pick 1.

 

I will pick number five, Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley., for $200 Alex.

 

Suter does not have multiple years of experience with huge quantities of inning, but his era is 2016 was 3.32, 2017 was 3.42, and this spring training 2018 is 3.00. Chance of accomplishing an era of under 3.71 this year, 70%. Chances of era of under 4.00, 85%.

 

Guerra was our opening day starter last year after a 2016 with am era of 2.81, 5.21 in 2017 (injured most of the year), and this spring training has a 2.45 era. Chances of accomplishing an era of 3.71 this year, 90% (when his elbow gives out, he is done). Chance his elbow lasts until Nelson returns, 75%.

 

Woodruff is about what Nelson was as a rookie (2016 4.62). Woodruff in 2017 had a 4.81 era. Chance of accomplishing an era of 3.71, 10%. Chance of era under 4.00, 35%.

 

Burnes has no MLB data. Chance of 3.71 era, 10%.

 

Miley gets cut and you do not give him a chance with his track record.

 

FINAL SUMMATION Sutor and Guerra are not pretty choices, but they can be a short to mid term option until Nelson returns and the youngsters are ready.

 

Please go look at the starting rotation stats thread. Look for the fantastic post of one Mr. Allen. In it you will see that you are basically saying (by MLB standards) there are very high odds that Suter and Guerra will be a #2 pitcher. You are predicting better era than Davies has accomplished.

 

Suter got through 14 starts (at 5ip per) last year before his shoulder gave him problems. He doesn't even throw hard.

Guerra's 33 leaning on velocity. He's missed a lot of time in 2 years. His whip is also still out of control.

Woodruff you comped to nelson who was over 4.0 each of the 2 years following his rookie season. I'd be over the moon if he was at 4.2 this year. His ability to repeat his lateral control is concerning.

 

ST stats don't mean anything. They mean even less when MLB arms carry their stats by starting good against milb guys only to get knocked around as soon as the regulars start taking abs. I'm not that optimistic.