Alex Cobb to the Orioles

[adambr2]

kfizz, the Brewers can't realistically trade Cain until 2020 due to no trade protections.

 

Eh partially true, maybe not. He can be traded to 15 teams in 2019, then it gets easier. It's hard to imagine we'd be looking to trade him in year 2 of a 5 year deal anyway.

[FVBrewerFan]

TJSeven, just curious. What deal did the Brewers need to offer in order for him to sign?

 

I feel it was a capitalize on his "1 shot at a FA money grab" more than anything else. I've said 64/4. 60/4 is more than 57... I really doubt Balt did anything for him other than pay him more. I'm curious to see the defered money payout and the trade protection because I think at this time that Balt bought him to trade him next offseason. Lose Jones, Machado, sell sell sell. Selling him on a 30/3 will fetch some assets. They eat the defered cap in the rebuild.

 

Ok, next question. How do you have any earthly idea Cobb would have signed with the Brewers at 64/4 or 60/4?

 

A few more questions. If it's only a few million more to get him, how do you know Baltimore wouldn't have met the Brewers 64/4 offer? Or another team? Do you know if Cobb ruled out NL teams due to having to bat and run the bases? (Or just has a strong preference to stay in AL for whatever his reasons.)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Sorry, you lost me after "looking to move Cain ..."

 

If the Brewers can't legitimately contend this year because they don't have the pitching, I wouldn't waste probably the most productive year of Cain's deal. If they have to restart the rebuild, a 34 year old center fielder is unlikely to be the cornerstone of that effort, especially at the price. Though I assume you were being sarcastic. Just my opinion.

 

No sarcasm needed. You are advocating trading off a guy they just signed to a 5-year, $80 million deal in the first part of his first season if things don't go well. Not only is that impossible due to his no-trade protection, it would be very short-sighted.

 

Could he be on the block a few years down the road? Maybe, but that likely wouldn't be until 2020, and a lot of bad things would need to happen to make that a possibility.

[TJseven7]

I guess I might be an odd sort of fan. I can respect people's passion, including yours, and I certainly get excited when something good happens for a team I like (mainly the Brewers), and am disappointed when things don't turn out as I hope. But, I don't think I'll ever be able to understand a mindset of getting literally angry over a team's results and/or roster management.

 

It's entirely possible I'm the weird one. Took me over a full week to calm down after watching what capers called vs Carolina. Heck it took me 2 days to get over what Vrabel called against KC in the early season (he got a HC job, how?) and I still can't believe how Sarkisian ended his teams season and I had good money on Philly to win.

 

Maybe I see players as kids and it bothers me when adults fail them... I don't know. (Reading that back I feel obligated to say, yes my childhood was as perfect as you could hope for lol, and I don't have kids, nor feel I've failed any)

[coolhandluke121]

 

Sorry, you lost me after "looking to move Cain ..."

 

If the Brewers can't legitimately contend this year because they don't have the pitching, I wouldn't waste probably the most productive year of Cain's deal. If they have to restart the rebuild, a 34 year old center fielder is unlikely to be the cornerstone of that effort, especially at the price. Though I assume you were being sarcastic. Just my opinion.

 

No sarcasm needed. You are advocating trading off a guy they just signed to a 5-year, $80 million deal in the first part of his first season if things don't go well. Not only is that impossible due to his no-trade protection, it would be very short-sighted.

 

Could he be on the block a few years down the road? Maybe, but that likely wouldn't be until 2020, and a lot of bad things would need to happen to make that a possibility.

 

Things change fast and you have to be flexible. There's no need to pigeon-hole yourself into certain timelines. At this time last year, they were supposed to be tanking. Now they're "going for it", but there's no need to be set in their ways there either. You don't have to keep Cain because you just signed him. You don't have to be a slave to past moves that were made under different conditions. If they have a lot of regression and bomb this year, but Cain is doing well and is willing to accept a trade to a contender, there's nothing wrong with getting that draft pick back and maybe a little something more for your trouble.

 

ETA: That's the same logic that made them keep Aramis Ramirez until he was worthless. They were going nowhere and could have gotten a haul for him after the 2012 season.

[TJseven7]

TJSeven, just curious. What deal did the Brewers need to offer in order for him to sign?

 

I feel it was a capitalize on his "1 shot at a FA money grab" more than anything else. I've said 64/4. 60/4 is more than 57... I really doubt Balt did anything for him other than pay him more. I'm curious to see the defered money payout and the trade protection because I think at this time that Balt bought him to trade him next offseason. Lose Jones, Machado, sell sell sell. Selling him on a 30/3 will fetch some assets. They eat the defered cap in the rebuild.

 

Ok, next question. How do you have any earthly idea Cobb would have signed with the Brewers at 64/4 or 60/4?

 

A few more questions. If it's only a few million more to get him, how do you know Baltimore wouldn't have met the Brewers 64/4 offer? Or another team? Do you know if Cobb ruled out NL teams due to having to bat and run the bases? (Or just has a strong preference to stay in AL for whatever his reasons.)

 

This is fun.

 

Do I have any proof that he would sign with mke for that amount. No. Equal to your proof that he wouldn't. I do feel i have plausibility on my side because ever ounce of this has the look of a money grab. Disagree?

 

How do I know Balt wouldn't have outbid 64/4? I don't. They didn't have to. That's the problem I'm dealing with. I'd have beaten that offer. That's what we do know. Do you go to an auction and pass on a good price for an item because someone might bid more? No. If there's a good price to be had on something you want and can afford, you bid. Another team? They didn't beat balt so that's not a question.

 

Do I know if Cobb ruled out the NL? Seems fairly trivial when you are trying to land the contract that will define your lifes work earnings potential. Disagree?

 

Staying in the offense loaded AL east, on one of the bad teams, facing a dh, sure doesn't seem like a good look for a 30 year old pitcher who may want another contract at 34. Disagree.

 

Logic... ya know. It makes sense.

 

What I find funny is that I'm still waiting to see how the money is defered and what trade protections are included. There's something fishy to this one... as in Baltimore is giving 1 more push with Machado Jones before burning it down and cobb is a added needed arm and an asset to trade as early as the deadline. People are trying to tell me its possible he wanted to be there and I'm wondering if he'll be there a whole year of the 4.

[kfizz]

 

No sarcasm needed. You are advocating trading off a guy they just signed to a 5-year, $80 million deal in the first part of his first season if things don't go well. Not only is that impossible due to his no-trade protection, it would be very short-sighted.

 

Could he be on the block a few years down the road? Maybe, but that likely wouldn't be until 2020, and a lot of bad things would need to happen to make that a possibility.

 

I understand it's very difficult to trade him so it's really moot, but the larger point I was trying to make is that I hope management doesn't push a failed plan too long if it's not going to work. No one likes admitting mistakes. But regardless of how it looks, once they have enough evidence that the window isn't currently open, they should be moving pieces that have comparatively high immediate value. As I said, maybe the plan will work and I'm all for giving it a chance. Heck, for as bad as Espino, Milone, Peralta and Garza were last year, as a group they went 11-10 in their starts by my count. So in bottom line wins and losses, the Brewers didn't fare much worse in games they started than in games started by everyone else. Maybe my math is wrong.

[istanbultaye]

 

Staying in the offense loaded AL east, on one of the bad teams, facing a dh, sure doesn't seem like a good look for a 30 year old pitcher who may want another contract at 34. Disagree.

 

Logic... ya know. It makes sense.

 

You forgot that now he gets to pitch against the Rays a few games a year, and they were something like #25 offense last year, and might be worse this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

No sarcasm needed. You are advocating trading off a guy they just signed to a 5-year, $80 million deal in the first part of his first season if things don't go well. Not only is that impossible due to his no-trade protection, it would be very short-sighted.

 

Could he be on the block a few years down the road? Maybe, but that likely wouldn't be until 2020, and a lot of bad things would need to happen to make that a possibility.

 

I understand it's very difficult to trade him so it's really moot, but the larger point I was trying to make is that I hope management doesn't push a failed plan too long if it's not going to work. No one likes admitting mistakes. But regardless of how it looks, once they have enough evidence that the window isn't currently open, they should be moving pieces that have comparatively high immediate value. As I said, maybe the plan will work and I'm all for giving it a chance. Heck, for as bad as Espino, Milone, Peralta and Garza were last year, as a group they went 11-10 in their starts by my count. So in bottom line wins and losses, the Brewers didn't fare much worse in games they started than in games started by everyone else. Maybe my math is wrong.

 

How long is "too long"? You seemed to imply in your initial post that they should put guys on the market early this season if things don't start well.

[TJseven7]

 

Staying in the offense loaded AL east, on one of the bad teams, facing a dh, sure doesn't seem like a good look for a 30 year old pitcher who may want another contract at 34. Disagree.

 

Logic... ya know. It makes sense.

 

You forgot that now he gets to pitch against the Rays a few games a year, and they were something like #25 offense last year, and might be worse this year.

 

 

True. Also true, Yankees and Sox were pretty beastly before Stanton and JD. Baltimore doesn't have the pitchers park that TB boasts. If you want to pitch against dogs a lot, you sign with Washington.

[monty57]

This thread is full of defeatist talk, excuse making that hasn't got a shred of evidence, cap nonsense and people doing their best to talk themselves into being onboard.

 

I am possibly the guy you're referencing here.

 

I see the Brewers at around $91M right now, and I would bet that they could fit another $15M+ onto this year's payroll.

 

Next year looks different. Braun, Cain, Yelich, Chacin, Thames, Anderson and Albers add up to $65.5M. Logan will cost either $4.125M or $0.625M if we don't exercise the option, and Jeffress will cost $3.175M if we exercise his option. That's $72.8M for 9/25 of the roster.

 

Meanwhile, 12 of the remaining 16 roster spots (Nelson, Knebel, Vogt, Villar, Perez, Davies, Guerra, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Bandy and Pina) are all up for arby raises. We could cut some of these guys, but this is a big part of the team and some of these guys could get big raises.

 

We have some meaningful pre-arby guys like Arcia, Phillips, Suter, and Hader, and some prospects who could help, but there has to be some concern from the front office that adding another $15M+ in guaranteed salary to the 2019 payroll could push us well over budget and possibly even into the red. Attanasio has shown that he doesn't mind spending money, but he not going to voluntarily lose money.

 

I'm not thrilled with our starting rotation, but we have a limited budget. Would we be better if Stearns had signed Cobb and not Chacin and some bullpen help? I don't know. We could have signed Cobb instead of Cain for roughly the same price, so I assume Stearns thought the upgrade from Phillips/Broxton to Cain was greater than the upgrade from the current back of the rotation to Cobb. Time will tell if he's right or wrong.

 

We do have Nelson and some high-upside prospects who are close to contributing. Maybe he feels that if we skip the #5 a few times, our #4/5 mix will be good enough to get us through until the in-house reinforcements arrive. Maybe he's just higher on some of these guys then some fans/media are.

 

I don't know the final answer to all of this stuff, but I do know that the Brewers are going in as one of the better teams in the NL, and I'm excited to get the season underway. Hopefully all the positives on the roster outweigh the negatives, and we end up in the playoffs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Maybe a guy like Cobb who has spent his entire career in the AL doesn't want to suddenly have to grab a bat and hit during most of his starts over the next four years - The brewers lost 3 starters for significant portions of last season entirely due to pitchers needing to hit/run the bases (Guerra, Nelson, Anderson). I'm sure Cobb would've signed on the dotted line with an NL team if the $ was significantly greater, but there's something to be said about a pitcher with a pretty long injury history possibly wanting to limit the ways additional injuries may occur every time he takes the hill.

[kfizz]

 

How long is "too long"? You seemed to imply in your initial post that they should put guys on the market early this season if things don't start well.

 

Depending on the severity of issues, I could see dipping my toe in around the trade deadline this year. If they're not realistically in the wild card race, and guys like Villar haven't lived up to hopes.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Do I have any proof that he would sign with mke for that amount. No.

 

Thank you, that's what I thought.

 

How do I know Balt wouldn't have outbid 64/4? I don't. They didn't have to. That's the problem I'm dealing with.

 

How do you know the Brewers didn't offer 64/4?

 

You see, you have no idea what the Brewers offered, didn't offer, or why. You also have no idea what it would have taken for Cobb to sign with the Brewers. I have no problem that you're passionate about this, not at all. Honestly TJseven, I say this as a friend of the BF.net community. You're coming off as a "know it all" and that tends to turn people off in the real world, and yes here in our little community too. Maybe you don't care, and that's cool too.

[Roderick]

Would we be better if Stearns had signed Cobb and not Chacin and some bullpen help? I don't know. We could have signed Cobb instead of Cain for roughly the same price, so I assume Stearns thought the upgrade from Phillips/Broxton to Cain was greater than the upgrade from the current back of the rotation to Cobb. Time will tell if he's right or wrong.

 

I understand your logic, but I think this is more applicable. It really would have been a Braun/Yelich/Santana OF if Stearns knew he couldn't unload Santana.

 

So the comparison actually is:

 

I feel the increase to Lance Lynn from Guerra/Miley/Woodruff is more than the

 

increase to Cain from taking starts away from Braun/Santana/Thames

[KeithStone53151]

To those of you stating adding Cobb would add much needed depth, do any of you realize how much depth we have? Assuming Miley makes the team, our 5-7 consist of Guerra, Woodruff, Suter in some order with Wilkerson as the 8. How many teams have a better 6-8 SP than we project to have? I'd bet all 4 of those guys are better than the 6th best starter on most teams. At some point between May and July, we are likely to get additional reinforcements of Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and/or Ortiz. Not all of them, but of 4 darts you have to figure at least 1-2 would be ready if needed at the big league level. Plus, we have plenty of ammo to make a move at the deadline.

 

If you thought Cobb would be a high end starter for the next 2-3 years posting low 3s ERA, then you have a legitimate gripe. Doesn't necessarily mean you're right, but that's the type of guy we could use. If you wanted Cobb as a depth move to slot in after Davies as our number 3 and move guys like Woodruff, Guerra, Suter, etc down 1 peg, that's an absolutely terrible reason to want Cobb.

[TJseven7]

Monty, unless you are also torts, its not directed at you. I ran down a much more novice level breakdown of what you posted there... stating we can take out Chacin and 1 of Anderson Davies if Cobb Nelson were to succeed or Nelson if he didnt. That strips 8-9 mil off the cap numbers. We aren't gaining more space in 2020 so increasing cains deal 1 mil every year instead of decreasing cains deal 1 mil every year makes no sense to me. You'd figure we'd pay him with our low cap number this year instead of pay him as these contracts continue to increase in 2019-2020. Its structured like a 3 year window deal followed by a purge and I'm not fond of that. The purge after 2020 is Braun Thames Knebel and Nelson so... not good.

[Fear The Chorizo]

All this discussion about payroll budgeting caps for the Brewers apparently assumes team and MLB-wide revenue streams are static? Truth is none of us know how much wiggle room they'll have for increasing payroll, especially a few years down the road after their current TV deal expires and while MLB revenues continue to grow. Spending 1/2 of each thread trying to project roster construction and payroll for future seasons is writing alot of words that really amount to nothing.

[FVBrewerFan]

Monty, unless you are also torts, its not directed at you. I ran down a much more novice level breakdown of what you posted there... stating we can take out Chacin and 1 of Anderson Davies if Cobb Nelson were to succeed or Nelson if he didnt. That strips 8-9 mil off the cap numbers. We aren't gaining more space in 2020 so increasing cains deal 1 mil every year instead of decreasing cains deal 1 mil every year makes no sense to me. You'd figure we'd pay him with our low cap number this year instead of pay him as these contracts continue to increase in 2019-2020. Its structured like a 3 year window deal followed by a purge and I'm not fond of that. The purge after 2020 is Braun Thames Knebel and Nelson so... not good.

 

How do you know what the Brewers "cap" will be in 2020? First, there is no cap like there is in the NFL. Secondly, we don't know how much Mark A is willing to spend down the road. He may be willing to go higher than we think once all the pieces are in place to really make a run. And the "Monty, unless you are also torts" line is another example what I mentioned earlier.

[MrTPlush]

Our cap will increase in 2020 or before. Our TV deal ends in the next few years and that will definitely bump it up.

[TJseven7]

 

Do I have any proof that he would sign with mke for that amount. No.

 

Thank you, that's what I thought.

 

How do I know Balt wouldn't have outbid 64/4? I don't. They didn't have to. That's the problem I'm dealing with.

 

How do you know the Brewers didn't offer 64/4?

 

You see, you have no idea what the Brewers offered, didn't offer, or why. You also have no idea what it would have taken for Cobb to sign with the Brewers. I have no problem that you're passionate about this, not at all. Honestly TJseven, I say this as a friend of the BF.net community. You're coming off as a "know it all" and that tends to turn people off in the real world, and yes here in our little community too. Maybe you don't care, and that's cool too.

 

Ooo lawyer style entrapment use of those questions. Stripping away all context to try to prove a point. Shame!

 

I do get the "know it all tag" far too often. Let me attempt to explain why please. I do not believe in the philisophical sense of a valid arguement... or at least that a valid arguement holds value in a debate. In the same vein, I do believe you have the right to have your opinion no matter how implausible and far fetched they may be, but I also have the right to point out how implausible they are. The stance of, you have no proof so anything is possible, while being true, fails at being correct or accurate.

 

Think it through... guy held out for a long long time. Passed a QO. Passed an offer from his old manager and a chance to play for a contender... to choose Baltimore who is on the verge of a tear down. He's 30 and signing for a 4 year deal. That next offer at 34 is the type of Wolf Loshe Suppan Looper stuff we are terrified of. He has no connection to baltimore that we know. What's the most likely determining factor? Money! AL east love... 10 of 100. AL love 5 of 100. Baltimore love... again I'm still wondering if he'll be there in 2019... sure 20 of 100. You really want to stack all rjose low likelihood "we don't knows" against the highly probable money? Really? I don't.

 

Doesn't mean I know jack. I don't feel I pretend to, but it sure does mean I'm playing the odds and long odds are long odds for a reason. Keep it simple. The simple answer is the likely answer. Yadda yadda. I'm not going to play, or respect the anythings possible take. It's lazy and foolhearted.

 

I position myself on likely. That's all. I follow the clues, I do my legwork, I hold on to consistency and I sit on likely. You can bet on the Marlins winning the WS this year if you wish. I'm not going with you. It's irresponsible to go there, and I won't.

 

So I'm going to point at unlikely and say... you seriously believe what your saying? And by questioning your improbable possibly, i get called a know it all for following the clues to probable. I state it definitely because its MOST PROBABLE and in a scenerio where there is no known... the known defaults to MOST PROBABLE.

[pacopete4]

This is becoming a drunken mess. Whoa.

[torts]

Monty, unless you are also torts, its not directed at you. I ran down a much more novice level breakdown of what you posted there... stating we can take out Chacin and 1 of Anderson Davies if Cobb Nelson were to succeed or Nelson if he didnt. That strips 8-9 mil off the cap numbers. We aren't gaining more space in 2020 so increasing cains deal 1 mil every year instead of decreasing cains deal 1 mil every year makes no sense to me. You'd figure we'd pay him with our low cap number this year instead of pay him as these contracts continue to increase in 2019-2020. Its structured like a 3 year window deal followed by a purge and I'm not fond of that. The purge after 2020 is Braun Thames Knebel and Nelson so... not good.

 

am I, are we?

[homer]

Hey guys, some people like the non move and some don't. There is no reason not to at least respect opposing arguments.

 

Also, some of you that are reporting abusive posts need to take a look in the mirror.

[FVBrewerFan]

Keep it simple. The simple answer is the likely answer.

 

I agree, but I don't agree with you on the answer. To me, the simplest answer is Cobb did not want to play for the Brewers, and quite possibly in the NL period. That's far more likely to me than the Brewers not bumping up their offer a few million if that's all it took, and they really wanted him.