Alex Cobb (Part 4)

[Boomer5]

Miley had a 1.7 Whip last year. No amount of spin will suggest he is anything but a prayer type of signing.

Relying on one year of data and making no mention of underlying talent often leads people to make these kinds of hyperbolic assumptions.

 

Most projections I've seen have Miley as a 1-2 WAR pitcher if he pitches 150 innings. That's perfectly fine for a back end starter.

 

So WAR projections matter now? Because every WAR projection I have seen suggests the Brewers project to be 500 at best and not close to the playoffs.

[monty57]

If so, they (like us) will then hope that whoever ends up in the rotation will perform decently until Nelson returns and/or some of the minor leaguers are ready.

 

That’s the problem so many people have. Let’s just HOPE guys like Gallardo and Miley and Guerra just happen to figure things out even though they’ve all been pretty bad for awhile now. Why not go get a guy that’s actually been good recently? Yeah it’s going to cost money. Yeah you may have to give him two or three years when you only wanted to give him one. But you’re taking an AWFULLY big risk relying on Miley and Guerra and Suter to give you 15-20 starts until (if???) Nelson comes back.

 

I was never all that big on Cobb. I preferred Arrietta personally. But given he’s the best of what’s left and looking at what we currently have I have no issue giving him two years or even three if the price is right. And this is all assuming the price is right. I don’t think anyone is suggesting we give him a blank check and tell him to fill in his cost.

 

It's not as easy as "just give him the extra years." The Brewers are currently at $91M payroll. They have a lot of arby raises next year and only lose Gallardo ($2M) and Sogard ($2.4M) to free agency. Jeffress ($1.7M) has an option. If they signed Cobb to something like $15M / year, they could probably handle the $106M this year (at least it would be within previous years' highs) but they could be well into the $120's or $130's next year which may not be something they can do.

 

Adding to that, they really wouldn't have a lot of salary they could trade away without hurting the team. Vogt and Villar could be dropped, but everyone else will either be untradeable or would hurt to lose.

 

btw, I'm one of those people who have a problem with the sentence you quoted. I just think that's what's going to happen if Cobb doesn't cave in and sign a one-year deal.

[homer]

This SP plan sounds like trying to fix-up an old jalopy car inside of upgrading to a mid-grade one, even though you can afford it.

 

Miley and Gallardo can only be "fixed-up" so much at their age.

 

Not a fan of this plan.

 

I am not even including either of those guys. If Miley was having a mediocre camp no one would even be discussing him. This is about:

 

Chacin, Suter, Woodruff, Guerra

 

You've got Anderson, Davies, and then three of the above four. Maybe you include Burnes at some point down the road.

 

If Miley is for real then you got lucky.

[Boomer5]

Lol the great Wade Miley is getting smoked today.

 

I guess folks can talk themselves into anything.

[DR28]

Lol the great Wade Miley is getting smoked today.

 

I guess folks can talk themselves into anything.

 

And there's the Miley of the last few years... Good he's out of rotation then.

 

Guess Woody and Guerra are battling for the 4th spot.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff or Guerra

Suter

[istanbultaye]

Who ever said Wade Miley was great? I'm possibly the most extreme poster in support of Miley, and I've basically only said that it would not be the end of the world if he continued to have good results this spring and took the 5th spot with a short leash.

[brewmann04]

DS is just talking when he believes this rotation is good ,we have 2 big holes and can't make steak out of Chop Liver.

[Brewer Fever]

Lol the great Wade Miley is getting smoked today.

 

I guess folks can talk themselves into anything.

 

1- See box score

 

2- Immediately think of the reaction going on at BF.net

 

3- Contemplate who you'd expect to see jumping at the opportunity to post that the sky is falling

 

4- Go to BF.net to see it confirmed

 

5- Laugh

 

6- Cry

 

7- Remind yourself it's just spring training

 

8- Cry some more

 

9- Look for the latest Cobb rumors

 

10- Pray that Stearns has things under control

[Boomer5]

Lol the great Wade Miley is getting smoked today.

 

I guess folks can talk themselves into anything.

 

1- See box score

 

2- Immediately think of the reaction going on at BF.net

 

3- Contemplate who you'd expect to see jumping at the opportunity to post that the sky is falling

 

4- Go to BF.net to see it confirmed

 

5- Laugh

 

6- Cry

 

7- Remind yourself it's just spring training

 

8- Cry some more

 

9- Look for the latest Cobb rumors

 

10- Pray that Stearns has things under control

 

I'm certainly guilty of point 2 and 3 but come on. We are in a thread that is almost 80 pages strong about signing Cobb then folks desperately cling to anything to rationalize how we don't need Cobb because we have Wade Miley. And you know, pitchers with a 1.7 Whip aren't really all that bad.

 

It's low hanging fruit I admit but........ it's Wade Miley. It wasn't like we had to wait very long for a 3 inning, 10 hit, 7 runs outing.

[And That]

So WAR projections matter now? Because every WAR projection I have seen suggests the Brewers project to be 500 at best and not close to the playoffs.

They didn’t matter at all at some point? News to me. Shrug.

 

BPro has the Brewers at 84 wins and a game out of the playoffs.

 

Zips has the Brewers at 84 wins and in the playoffs.

[pacopete4]

Isn’t today’s outting from Miley more of a reflection of another poster that pointed out that he was a good pitcher for 20+ starts and an absolute dumpster fire for about 5-7?

[DR28]

Isn’t today’s outting from Miley more of a reflection of another poster that pointed out that he was a good pitcher for 20+ starts and an absolute dumpster fire for about 5-7?

 

He can do this stuff at Colorado Springs.

[pacopete4]

Isn’t today’s outting from Miley more of a reflection of another poster that pointed out that he was a good pitcher for 20+ starts and an absolute dumpster fire for about 5-7?

 

He can do this stuff at Colorado Springs.

Or in the rotation. We can let Stearns decide that I think.

[DR28]

Cobb must really be sticking to his demands.

 

Nats sign Hellickson.

 

Alex, we're the only suitor left for you!

[brewtank34]

Lol the great Wade Miley is getting smoked today.

 

I guess folks can talk themselves into anything.

 

1- See box score

 

2- Immediately think of the reaction going on at BF.net

 

3- Contemplate who you'd expect to see jumping at the opportunity to post that the sky is falling

 

4- Go to BF.net to see it confirmed

 

5- Laugh

 

6- Cry

 

7- Remind yourself it's just spring training

 

8- Cry some more

 

9- Look for the latest Cobb rumors

 

10- Pray that Stearns has things under control

 

 

This is one of the best posts I’ve seen in this forum

[MrTPlush]

I love how people love to come flying out of the woodworks when something happens to fit their narrative. Wade Miley's start today is proof he sucks etc., but before today that 1.34 ERA and 10.4 K/9 was meaningless.

 

Gotta love it. Chase Anderson must be ready to be demoted to minor league camp too.

[82brewcrew82]

I unequivocally believe number 3 is the answer but I also reject that this as an either/or argument. If they have a magic wand that can fix Miley or Gallardo of Guerra or anyone, why does that magic wand not work on a guy like Cobb? If they can turn Miley into Cobb why can't they turn Cobb into a TOR and if you can turn Cobb into a TOR, why wouldn't you pay the discounted price to do so?

 

Because it isn’t really magic, or alchemy, or transmutation. Nobody is turning lead into gold. It is about “finding diamonds in the rough” or the “island of misfit toys” or whatever cliche is most apt.

 

One cannot just throw a dart at the waiver wire, find any old schmuck, wave a computer algorithm at him, and poof, he’s Collin McHugh. The Brewers are undoubtedly looking for particular pitchers with very specific underlying technical flaws and metrics that could conceivably fit with their overall organizational approach. I happen to find the fact that they intentionally chose these pitchers with that strategy in mind makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

By mid-May, perhaps they’ve fallen on their face, or maybe they’ve given us some useful turns in the rotation but the league has figured them out. In that case, Woodruff and maybe even Burnes are only a phone call away. I don’t see any reason to be too agitated, at least until we see some actual results.

Are you implying that the Brewers are deploying a technique or philosophy that hasn't been identified until now (Are these the same metrics and technical flaws that had Milone in the rotation last year?)? If you aren't, then you have basically described what every team in the leagues does unless you're also implying that every other team uses a dart board (they don't). Sure, we can point to a few pebbles of sand like McHugh, but those pebbles are buried on the vast beach of FA signings and waiver wire claims that never panned out.

 

Your last paragraph is probably the most salient. Let's let these guys prove they suck even though we know their most recent track record says they do.....and I'm perfectly fine with that. Sure, maybe they get lucky but the odds of that happening are poor. What I don't buy are all the posts trying to put lipstick on a pig and telling me it ain't ugly.

[sveumrules]

In Anderson, Davies & Chacin we have three legitimate MLB starters with varying degrees of success over multiple seasons.

 

In Woodruff & Suter we have two young pitchers with varying degrees of pedigree who have already experienced MLB success albeit in a limited sample.

 

In Guerra & Miley we have a couple guys who were terrible last season, but have had varying degrees of success in the past.

 

In Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta we have three prospects of some regard who have already pitched successfully at the AA level & could potentially help at some point similar to Woodruff/Suter last year.

 

In Nelson we have our best pitcher from last year who should be ready at some point during the season.

 

Having Cobb to add into that first group would be nice, but I feel we have plenty of legit options without him.

[TJseven7]

In Anderson, Davies & Chacin we have three legitimate MLB starters with varying degrees of success over multiple seasons.

 

In Woodruff & Suter we have two young pitchers with varying degrees of pedigree who have already experienced MLB success albeit in a limited sample.

 

In Guerra & Miley we have a couple guys who were terrible last season, but have had varying degrees of success in the past.

 

In Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta we have three prospects of some regard who have already pitched successfully at the AA level & could potentially help at some point similar to Woodruff/Suter last year.

 

In Nelson we have our best pitcher from last year who should be ready at some point during the season.

 

Having Cobb to add into that first group would be nice, but I feel we have plenty of legit options without him.

 

To me its about comfortably projecting to be .2 runs lower in era from the starting staff vs last years 4.1. Cobb makes that a reality. Positives after that become a bonus. Now, we need positives to get down to a staff era of 3.9.

 

Love the depth... asking a lot from it without cobb stunts chances to improve.

[CheezWizHed]

That's how we got the likes of Victor Santos, Wes Obermueller and Wayne Franklin in those intrepid rotations.

 

Wes Obermueller has the upside of being a #2 or #3 pitcher! All he need is a .... blast. Those 12 year old threads resurrected have me all confused now...

[HarveysWBs]

Are you implying that the Brewers are deploying a technique or philosophy that hasn't been identified until now (Are these the same metrics and technical flaws that had Milone in the rotation last year?)? If you aren't, then you have basically described what every team in the leagues does unless you're also implying that every other team uses a dart board (they don't). Sure, we can point to a few pebbles of sand like McHugh, but those pebbles are buried on the vast beach of FA signings and waiver wire claims that never panned out.

 

What I said was in reply to the suggestion (no doubt facetious) that the Brewers have some kind of "magic" (your words). Of course, they don't, just like teams don't really throw darts at the waiver wire. You seemed in your post to ask why they couldn't just turn any old "#2" or "#3" into an ace, and of course, that is not what I was suggesting at all (and, indeed, was probably a facetious point again).

 

To your more serious points, however:

 

-Are the Brewers deploying a technique or philosophy as of yet unidentified? I'd be shocked if they weren't. There is a reason that each team has their own metrics and proprietary formulas for evaluating talent, and why hacking incidents (Houston-St. Louis being the most prominent example) are such a big deal. Everyone is trying to do the same thing in the sense that they would like to make a dumpster-dive investment that turns into a stud, or at least a serviceable big-league regular. Call this idea identifying market inefficiencies/moneyball/whatever you like. However, contra Moneyball, I don't think there is anything approaching a league-wide consensus on what those inefficiencies even are, or how best to exploit them. So, yes, I think it is highly likely the Brewers are looking for some things which are in some ways unique from most other teams, and if they're doing their jobs correctly, that will be something of an organizational secret for a short term, until they identify some other "inefficiency" to look for or hit it big like the Astros and nerdy publications start parsing their success and other clubs copy them, etc.

 

-Are most of these investments pebbles of sand on the beach? Yep, completely agree, which is why I'm not worried about the odd blowup by Miley, for instance. Maybe he doesn't pan out. But this experiment is a volume play, and I'm more confident in the group than in any one individual. The Brewers are even considering operating with a four-man rotation to start the year, which could (barring the odd injury, of course) mean the pebbles only have to be polished (or the lipstick has to stay on the pig, if you prefer) for a shorter amount of time, which is a bit more likely.

 

To me its about comfortably projecting to be .2 runs lower in era from the starting staff vs last years 4.1. Cobb makes that a reality.

 

I guess my biggest problem with this is that I don't feel so certain about Cobb. I think he may be an improvement over in-house options (almost certainly Miley, for instance, and also probably Chacin), but at what price? We don't know the asking price, and we don't have first-hand perspectives on what Cobb is like as a player and a teammate. The people that do (Matt Arnold, Stearns, etc.) have rather pointedly not shown much aggressive interest, unless they have heretofore been very good at keeping it a secret. That, to me, speaks volumes. According to your projections and estimates, Cobb may get our staff to the ratios and averages we should be targeting. Maybe Stearns and company has a different projection of him, or a different set of ratios and averages they are targeting.

 

Having laid out what I think the brass thinks, let me tell you what I think. I think, without any particular expertise, that Cobb is likely to be good this year, but I doubt he is ever going to be what he was pre-injury, and is unlikely to get more durable as he ages. Cobb does not seem willing to go short-term, or else it stands to reason that he would be signed by now, so I don't think he is a fit. You suggested elsewhere that Cobb is still a good long-term investment because he can be flipped in the event we don't contend this year or next. I am skeptical of this, considering he is drawing pitiful interest now when he only costs money and a compensatory pick. I can't imagine an older Cobb would bring a meaningful haul of players unless he becomes what he was pre-injury, which, again, I think is unlikely.

[bylo tesi me]

That's how we got the likes of Victor Santos, Wes Obermueller and Wayne Franklin in those intrepid rotations.

 

Wes Obermueller has the upside of being a #2 or #3 pitcher! All he need is a .... blast. Those 12 year old threads resurrected have me all confused now...

 

 

I actually miss Vampire. He pitched well in some awesome Brewer wins on certain Monday night games I attended at Miller Park. Wednesday day games... Not so much.

[82brewcrew82]

I believe the Brewers have their own valuation tools and methodologies. That wasn't my point. My point was that every other team has theirs to. The problem is the Brewers have tools and methodologies that lead to Milone being in the rotation and signing of pitchers on extended streaks of poor performance. I don't think that will have anyone banging down the door for an in depth expose on the Brewers methodologies.

 

Having said that, the acknowledgement that we are dealing with pigs (or unpolished pebbles if you will) is certainly an agreeable point and I am all for any measure that would mitigate any one of these dirty pebbles not starting games. If that means working a four man rotation for as long as possible, so be it. Of course if you had five starters you had faith in you wouldn't be worried about manipulating starts which gets to the point as much as anything. These are not high upside flyers whose lack of success disguises a depth of talent.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Cobb must really be sticking to his demands.

 

Nats sign Hellickson.

 

Alex, we're the only suitor left for you!

Have we considered that Cobb has not signed with us because he doesn't want to come here? Its amazing to me that this has not gotten done yet. I suppose it could still be the money but with the others signing so cheap it seems Cobb would have followed by now.

[coolhandluke121]

In Anderson, Davies & Chacin we have three legitimate MLB starters with varying degrees of success over multiple seasons.

 

In Woodruff & Suter we have two young pitchers with varying degrees of pedigree who have already experienced MLB success albeit in a limited sample.

 

In Guerra & Miley we have a couple guys who were terrible last season, but have had varying degrees of success in the past.

 

In Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta we have three prospects of some regard who have already pitched successfully at the AA level & could potentially help at some point similar to Woodruff/Suter last year.

 

In Nelson we have our best pitcher from last year who should be ready at some point during the season.

 

Having Cobb to add into that first group would be nice, but I feel we have plenty of legit options without him.

 

Don't get me wrong because I'm okay with the rotation too, but I don't think it works this way. Quantity over quality doesn't mean anything with starters. You can only choose one of them for each spot in the rotation, and by the time you realize you chose the wrong one, you would have cost yourself several crucial games.

 

Out of Guerra, Miley, Gallardo, Woodruff, Suter, Burnes, and Wilkerson, there's probably an 80% chance one of them would have a great season this year if given the opportunity. The problem is that you can't give all of them that opportunity. Not even close.

 

My reasons for not wanting to add a starter are more about finances, draft picks, and the maximizing the best window of contention, which is not this year. The Nats will fade soon and the Cubs will be deep in the luxury tax with a weak farm system. See what you have in Suter, Woodruff, and Burnes; they're just as likely as Guerra or Gallardo to have a good season anyway.