Alex Cobb (Part 4)

[82brewcrew82]

from 50 pages ago...

 

When pitchers typically have labral issues it usually refers to the SLAP (Superior Labrum Anterior Posterior). One of the biceps attachments is to this part of the labrum. During throwing mechanics the biceps is very important in the deceleration phase of a pitch. (https://www.physio-pedia.com/Throwing_Biomechanics) Link is a very good explanation. When the biceps is injured, SLAP tear occurs or Rotator Cuff torn it is very difficult to fully recover and be an elite thrower again. There are a lot reasons why and it is very complex. We probably are not good yet perfecting the repair for throwers.

 

Nelson's injury did not involve that area according to reports. His was a bankart tear which is the anterior inferior labrum. This is injured during a shoulder dislocation. This can be repaired and since no major muscle attaches here it should (in theory) not effect his throwing mechanics in the same way. I predicted June as a good timeline for his return and it sounds like that is the Brewer's goal as well. The biggest concern with this surgery is that his shoulder was not tightened up too much with the repair. As long as he regains his full range of motion and full rotator cuff strength, he should be able to return. Hopefully it will be to his elite level he had last year. It would be a huge boost to team in June/July.

Thank you for digging that up and I'll admit it sounds a tad more optimistic than i remembered but still plenty of reason for caution.

[HarveysWBs]

On Chacin, Mikey, et al: I think for all the consternation here about stats from the last two years, we’re losing sight of something obvious. Stearns and Attanasio can see those stats, too. They know who those pitchers have been. They have stated this team is ready to contend now, and have adjusted their approach to player acquisition accordingly. So does it seem logical that they would sign those players, tell them to show up for spring training, simply pat them on the butt when they take the mound and say “just give us what you had last year” on the way to handing them a rotation spot?

 

I think there are three ways to look at this situation. 1) The Brewers brass is lying to everyone to generate hype, sell tickets, and fleece the fans, and does not intend to compete. 2) They think these new pitchers, if they perform as they were last year will still enable the Crew to compete. Or 3) they think can get these new pitchers to use their skills in a more efficient and effective way this year which will outperform their recent results. In short 1) they’re hucksters, 2) they’re morons, 3) they have a plan.

 

Based on all the vitriol, it seems most posters in the last 24 hours are leaning towards camps 1 and 2. I think 3 is far more likely the case, which, as I’ve suggested before, does not necessarily mean the plan works, but there is a precedent. If you want to look at another organization’s example for how to get the most out of “scrap-heap” pitchers, your newly crowned world champions are not a bad place to start (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-houston-astros-10-stats-to-explain-first-place-start/).

 

Now where did David Stearns come from, again...?

[DR28]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

[And That]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

Yes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

[82brewcrew82]

Based on all the vitriol, it seems most posters in the last 24 hours are leaning towards camps 1 and 2. I think 3 is far more likely the case, which, as I’ve suggested before, does not necessarily mean the plan works, but there is a precedent. If you want to look at another organization’s example for how to get the most out of “scrap-heap” pitchers, your newly crowned world champions are not a bad place to start (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-houston-astros-10-stats-to-explain-first-place-start/).

 

Now where did David Stearns come from, again...?

I unequivocally believe number 3 is the answer but I also reject that this as an either/or argument. If they have a magic wand that can fix Miley or Gallardo of Guerra or anyone, why does that magic wand not work on a guy like Cobb? If they can turn Miley into Cobb why can't they turn Cobb into a TOR and if you can turn Cobb into a TOR, why wouldn't you pay the discounted price to do so?

 

I think they had a plan that involved moving Santana. If they really thought Miley was the guy, they would have signed him sooner and not after they had already come to the conclusion that getting what they wanted for Santana wasn't going to happen. It's the same reason we didn't hear about Braun moving to first until late in the off season. They misread the market like everyone else. Kudos on them for not overreacting and doing something really dumb.

 

None of that takes away form the gaping wound that is the starting rotation.

[82brewcrew82]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

.....or letting Aguilar go.

[DR28]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

 

Forgot about that.

 

Drake just needs to be DFAd!

[82brewcrew82]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

 

Forgot about that.

 

Drake just needs to be DFAd!

.....or that.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

 

Forgot about that.

 

Drake just needs to be DFAd!

 

Tyler Webb could be jettisoned without much issue as well. Unless there's suddenly a big need for 27-year-old LOOGYs who have barely sniffed the majors.

[HarveysWBs]

I unequivocally believe number 3 is the answer but I also reject that this as an either/or argument. If they have a magic wand that can fix Miley or Gallardo of Guerra or anyone, why does that magic wand not work on a guy like Cobb? If they can turn Miley into Cobb why can't they turn Cobb into a TOR and if you can turn Cobb into a TOR, why wouldn't you pay the discounted price to do so?

 

Because it isn’t really magic, or alchemy, or transmutation. Nobody is turning lead into gold. It is about “finding diamonds in the rough” or the “island of misfit toys” or whatever cliche is most apt.

 

One cannot just throw a dart at the waiver wire, find any old schmuck, wave a computer algorithm at him, and poof, he’s Collin McHugh. The Brewers are undoubtedly looking for particular pitchers with very specific underlying technical flaws and metrics that could conceivably fit with their overall organizational approach. I happen to find the fact that they intentionally chose these pitchers with that strategy in mind makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

By mid-May, perhaps they’ve fallen on their face, or maybe they’ve given us some useful turns in the rotation but the league has figured them out. In that case, Woodruff and maybe even Burnes are only a phone call away. I don’t see any reason to be too agitated, at least until we see some actual results.

[brewmann04]

they can eliminate at least two spots so the can Miley and maybe Cobb

[Warning Track Power]

I think there are three ways to look at this situation. 1) The Brewers brass is lying to everyone to generate hype, sell tickets, and fleece the fans, and does not intend to compete. 2) They think these new pitchers, if they perform as they were last year will still enable the Crew to compete. Or 3) they think can get these new pitchers to use their skills in a more efficient and effective way this year which will outperform their recent results. In short 1) they’re hucksters, 2) they’re morons, 3) they have a plan.

Option #4: The Front Office realizes they are still a year away given Nelson's injury and current state of the SP on the farm. As such, they aren't willing to sink $ into players (Cobb) that may have their results replicated by Burnes, Woodruff, Ortiz as soon as 2019 as well as possibly precluding them from extending Shaw, Arcia, etc...

 

If Nelson's injury never occurred, then perhaps the Brewers may have taken the dive and signed Alex Cobb to have Nelson-Anderson-Cobb to compete with Scherzer-Strasburg-Gonzalez or Darvish-Quintana-Hendricks or Kershaw-Hill-Wood. However, with Nelson's injury, the addition of Cobb still likely leaves the Brewers an elite arm short of being able to realistically beat any of the aforementioned in a 5 or 7 game series.

 

While I don't agree or disagree, I think this is the Brewers FO opinion of where they stand in 2018.

[And That]

Because it isn’t really magic, or alchemy, or transmutation. Nobody is turning lead into gold. It is about “finding diamonds in the rough” or the “island of misfit toys” or whatever cliche is most apt.

 

One cannot just throw a dart at the waiver wire, find any old schmuck, wave a computer algorithm at him, and poof, he’s Collin McHugh. The Brewers are undoubtedly looking for particular pitchers with very specific underlying technical flaws and metrics that could conceivably fit with their overall organizational approach. I happen to find the fact that they intentionally chose these pitchers with that strategy in mind makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is brilliantly stated. Well done.

[pacopete4]

Because it isn’t really magic, or alchemy, or transmutation. Nobody is turning lead into gold. It is about “finding diamonds in the rough” or the “island of misfit toys” or whatever cliche is most apt.

 

One cannot just throw a dart at the waiver wire, find any old schmuck, wave a computer algorithm at him, and poof, he’s Collin McHugh. The Brewers are undoubtedly looking for particular pitchers with very specific underlying technical flaws and metrics that could conceivably fit with their overall organizational approach. I happen to find the fact that they intentionally chose these pitchers with that strategy in mind makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is brilliantly stated. Well done.

+1 Couldn’t agree more. We will soon find out if they hit their mark with any of these guys.

[KeithStone53151]

Quick question is our 40 man full? Just curious if someone needs to be DFAd for Miley to make the rotation.

 

Yes, but I would assume that can be accomplished by putting Nelson on the 60-day DL.

 

Forgot about that.

 

Drake just needs to be DFAd!

 

Nelson, Drake, Aguilar, Broxton, Gallardo. Not all will be cut/traded, but all are legit options. Point being, the Brewers will not be excessively strapped for 40 man spots when the time comes to solidify the 25 man.

[Lathund]

On Chacin, Mikey, et al: I think for all the consternation here about stats from the last two years, we’re losing sight of something obvious. Stearns and Attanasio can see those stats, too. They know who those pitchers have been. They have stated this team is ready to contend now, and have adjusted their approach to player acquisition accordingly. So does it seem logical that they would sign those players, tell them to show up for spring training, simply pat them on the butt when they take the mound and say “just give us what you had last year” on the way to handing them a rotation spot?

 

I think there are three ways to look at this situation. 1) The Brewers brass is lying to everyone to generate hype, sell tickets, and fleece the fans, and does not intend to compete. 2) They think these new pitchers, if they perform as they were last year will still enable the Crew to compete. Or 3) they think can get these new pitchers to use their skills in a more efficient and effective way this year which will outperform their recent results. In short 1) they’re hucksters, 2) they’re morons, 3) they have a plan.

 

Based on all the vitriol, it seems most posters in the last 24 hours are leaning towards camps 1 and 2. I think 3 is far more likely the case, which, as I’ve suggested before, does not necessarily mean the plan works, but there is a precedent. If you want to look at another organization’s example for how to get the most out of “scrap-heap” pitchers, your newly crowned world champions are not a bad place to start (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-houston-astros-10-stats-to-explain-first-place-start/).

 

Now where did David Stearns come from, again...?

 

Good post (As was a previous post of yours regarding the rotation; a very impressive first 6 posts! Quality posts have been scarce lately), and I agree entirely. Last years rotation didn't look impressive beforehand, but turned out to be. The DS regime so far hasn't given me any reason to doubt them, so I'll continue to have faith. They got us to within one game of the playoffs without basically spending anything, so I'll continue to trust their low-key pickups, re-treads etc. Seems like the front office are good at identifying the type of pitchers DJ can tweak and improve as well, which if it continues is extremely valuable.

 

People panning the rotation are also missing one important thing, which is depth. Some even go so far as to use the term mockingly or sarcastically. The starting 1-5 rotation tends to pitch fewer innings than people expect, it's rarely intact. Even if Nelson to Chacin is a step down (And Chacin seems to be a guy people underrate as well), have a look at what Peralta, Guerra, Garza, Milone, Espino, Blazek and Johnny Wholestaff did. Replace those innings with even replacement level pitching (Which is what 2016-2017 Wade Miley was) and you've improved by 2 wins. Woodruff, Suter and perhaps even Miley (Presumably the Brewers saw something that signalled potential improvement) are in all likelyhood going to be better than replacement level, and will for the most part be replacing innings pitched by worse players. Or put another way; There are about 22 non-negative WAR players per team if they were evenly distributed (According to an article I read recently, forgot where). Teams will have at the very least 30 significant contributors through a season. There is a lot of ground to be gained from improving those last 8(ish) players.

 

So the rotation last year was good, and to me it's basically on the same level overall. The bullpen is better. The lineup is better. Defense should be better as well. A lot of things can go wrong still, and some of them will, but this team is going to be strong this year. It's not some kind of tanking job. DS would have been well aware that Lynn, Walker and Lucroy (To name some) could be had at decent prices, even if it would've potentially taken more to bring them to Milwaukee. He chose not to do it. He had his reasons for doing so, and I don't see any reason to doubt that those reasons are far more likely to be good than bad.

[KeithStone53151]

Because it isn’t really magic, or alchemy, or transmutation. Nobody is turning lead into gold. It is about “finding diamonds in the rough” or the “island of misfit toys” or whatever cliche is most apt.

 

One cannot just throw a dart at the waiver wire, find any old schmuck, wave a computer algorithm at him, and poof, he’s Collin McHugh. The Brewers are undoubtedly looking for particular pitchers with very specific underlying technical flaws and metrics that could conceivably fit with their overall organizational approach. I happen to find the fact that they intentionally chose these pitchers with that strategy in mind makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is brilliantly stated. Well done.

 

I'm a bit more pessimistic on what the results of this approach will be, but I'll agree it is very well stated and a good strategy for a market size like ours. Looking specifically at Gallardo/Miley, both were good pitchers within the last 3 years and aren't all that old(32/31). Maybe the Brewers watched some video and saw something they could tweak to get that pitcher back to prominence.

 

This type of strategy is likely to have more failures than successes, as long as the FO can properly analyze this and cut ties with the guys that aren't going to work out...it's a great strategy. If Miley ends up a 3.5-4ish ERA starters for 2.5 million, fantastic. Even if he hits his incentive and boosts to 5.8 or whatever, that price for 28+ starts is a steal.

[brewmann04]

great thought process but I am not sure any of these guys are the water into wine scenario

[A Swing and A Drive]

This SP plan sounds like trying to fix-up an old jalopy car inside of upgrading to a mid-grade one, even though you can afford it.

 

Miley and Gallardo can only be "fixed-up" so much at their age.

 

Not a fan of this plan.

[paul253]

Why can't we think critically and consider these things

 

Why don’t you think I’ve considered these things? If he’s “only” a number 3 he’s still significantly better than the options we’re throwing out there. Just because someone doesn’t agree that throwing a bunch of crap against the wall and hoping some of it sticks is a good idea doesn’t mean they aren’t thinking cititcally. Of course Cobb is more expensive and has his risks. He’s also a heck of a lot better than the alternatives.

 

As far as him maybe not wanting to be here. Do you think at this point it’s in his best interest to pick and choose where he goes? If the offer is good enough he’ll be here.

[monty57]

Chacin was signed to a 2-year MLB deal. Stearns obviously likes him and he will be a starter. People may question whether it was a good signing, but no one should think he won't be in the rotation.

 

Miley was signed on a minor league contract. I think he was brought in to be the AAA depth. If he impresses management enough that he wins the job then good for him, but it's not like we lose him if he's sent to AAA.

 

Gallardo was awful as a starter but decent as a reliever last year. I think he was brought in to compete for a spot as a multi-inning reliever. Those guys are more valuable than ever.

 

I certainly don't think Brewers management are dumb. I think they made some moves and reached their budget. Part of the plan was to trade Santana for a young, cheap starting pitcher. When the market for corner outfielders completely dried up, they got stuck but are trying to make the best of the situation. They're still one of the better teams in the NL, but they could use an upgrade in the rotation. They know that "hole" in the roster could cost them some games, so Attanasio would probably spring for Cobb on a one-year deal, but they probably wouldn't be able to afford to pay him next year unless they found a way to trade off a lot of salary.

 

Therefore, I think they're holding out hope for Cobb to accept a one-year deal like Lynn signed, but will go into the season with the current group if he continues to demand a multi-year deal. If so, they (like us) will then hope that whoever ends up in the rotation will perform decently until Nelson returns and/or some of the minor leaguers are ready.

[paul253]

If so, they (like us) will then hope that whoever ends up in the rotation will perform decently until Nelson returns and/or some of the minor leaguers are ready.

 

That’s the problem so many people have. Let’s just HOPE guys like Gallardo and Miley and Guerra just happen to figure things out even though they’ve all been pretty bad for awhile now. Why not go get a guy that’s actually been good recently? Yeah it’s going to cost money. Yeah you may have to give him two or three years when you only wanted to give him one. But you’re taking an AWFULLY big risk relying on Miley and Guerra and Suter to give you 15-20 starts until (if???) Nelson comes back.

 

I was never all that big on Cobb. I preferred Arrietta personally. But given he’s the best of what’s left and looking at what we currently have I have no issue giving him two years or even three if the price is right. And this is all assuming the price is right. I don’t think anyone is suggesting we give him a blank check and tell him to fill in his cost.

[YungTeeler]

From the only source I trust on MLB free agency, Christian Post.

 

https://www.christianpost.com/news/mlb-free-agency-rumors-will-alex-cobb-sign-with-the-milwaukee-brewers-221232/

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

From the only source I trust on MLB free agency, Christian Post.

 

https://www.christianpost.com/news/mlb-free-agency-rumors-will-alex-cobb-sign-with-the-milwaukee-brewers-221232/

 

That story looks like it was written by me ... when I was 9.