Alex Cobb (Part 4)

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers were 9th in pitching a year ago, 19th in runs scored. We've added Chacin, and replaced Torres and Drake with real pitchers, and improved the OF defense. We'll be a top ten pitching staff again. I hope the offense can carry it's load this time.

[82brewcrew82]

Who are we kidding? The entire rotation as it sits could be a major disappointment.

 

All we can do at this point is hope that Anderson's 2017 wasn't a fluke and Davies takes a step forward. If either of those to falter, and Chacin doesn't deliver to the level most here think he will, we are basically screwed.

 

Add Nelson to the list of GIANT question marks as well. There is always the chance that he comes back ineffective and injury prone the rest of the season.

 

We are playing with fire in a major way.

 

Isnt this the same for about 90% of the teams in the MLB? We have some minor success last season and pretend that this is going to change over night. It’s a very good reason as to why I’m good to wait and see how the season and some of our younger arms do before we go too deep into free agents that we don’t recover for 10 years.

No, I don't think you can say that about 90% of the teams and the ones that are true contenders are certainly not in that position. The success came overnight, whey can't it revert overnight?

[82brewcrew82]

The Brewers were 9th in pitching a year ago, 19th in runs scored. We've added Chacin, and replaced Torres and Drake with real pitchers, and improved the OF defense. We'll be a top ten pitching staff again. I hope the offense can carry it's load this time.

Why do people think the pitching success last year didn't include Nelson? Chacin isn't replacing that.

[brewcrewdue80]

Who are we kidding? The entire rotation as it sits could be a major disappointment.

 

All we can do at this point is hope that Anderson's 2017 wasn't a fluke and Davies takes a step forward. If either of those to falter, and Chacin doesn't deliver to the level most here think he will, we are basically screwed.

 

Add Nelson to the list of GIANT question marks as well. There is always the chance that he comes back ineffective and injury prone the rest of the season.

 

We are playing with fire in a major way.

 

I agree with this. I am not convinced that Anderson is the pitcher we saw last year. I surely hope that is the case, but I would like to see the continued uptick in velocity to feel better about it.

 

As to Woodruff, I think a lot of people on this board are having a hard time putting him in the rotation because that is what most are expecting. Typical Brewers fashion seems to trend towards older experienced veterans(good or bad) instead of a young prospect. I don't think it's people don't want him in the rotation, but that people are expecting the let down of having Guerra, Miley, etc starting.

 

Well? How is Anderson's velocity this spring? Anyone? With 33 Starts he's around 195IP

 

How about Davies' velocity? Went 191IP last season

 

We pick up a guy in Chacin who went 180 last season and near 200 in the past for Colorado of all teams!

 

Woodruff pitched 158innings in 2016. He should be able to go 180 with full health.

 

Then you have #5 Suter Can handle around 160 which easily takes us in to Nelson's return and/or the trade deadline. Guerra a backup or Miley doesn't matter.

 

Just overall the idea that the rotation is going to be garbage and a tired bullpen due to it isn't true on the normal basis.

 

Some years back full of posts with how bad the rotations had been, it was idea'd? that 2 #2s and 3 #3s would be a good enough rotation to get the team in the playoffs. Anderson/Davies/Nelson are #2s ideally when good. #3s on average. Chacin=typical #3. Woodruff should be a #3 in due time. Suter has #2/3 ability 2 times through an order.

 

Bullpen is stocked with quality RPs this season. Hader/Kneble known but Albers and Logan are better than the mistake prone RPs of last season.

 

Cobb can improve #5 stats, but this team moving forward with it's depth doesn't need him as much as a lot think. And the money and years just don't mesh at this time apparently to sign him.

 

If I could run the Pitching, I'd go Anderson, Davies, Chacin, #4 being Suter/ Miley or Guerra piggyback with the idea on Suter facing 18 batters and Guerra/Miley 18 batters if needed. It goes beyond that the game score dictates the bullpen usage if you have Guerra/Miley complete the game. Use the 25th man to complete it or use your studs. #5 is Woodruff. Having the ability to skip his turn at times allows him to pitch through a full season w/o innings limits.

 

If Suter is dealing, Counsell can let him pitch to the top of the order again 19, 20, 21 faced til he gives up that next hit showing he's not effective the 3rd time through. You'd hopefully get about 4.5innings from both on the average 30 starts on the season. 135innings by both. At the same time giving the Bullpen itself a full days rest for #5 starter Woodruff.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers were 9th in pitching a year ago, 19th in runs scored. We've added Chacin, and replaced Torres and Drake with real pitchers, and improved the OF defense. We'll be a top ten pitching staff again. I hope the offense can carry it's load this time.

Why do people think the pitching success last year didn't include Nelson? Chacin isn't replacing that.

 

Chacins career numbers very similar to Nelson. Were you talking up Nelson before he had his great season last year? I’d bet not. We’ll see what Johnson does with him. He’s had some pretty successful seasons.

[82brewcrew82]

The Brewers were 9th in pitching a year ago, 19th in runs scored. We've added Chacin, and replaced Torres and Drake with real pitchers, and improved the OF defense. We'll be a top ten pitching staff again. I hope the offense can carry it's load this time.

Why do people think the pitching success last year didn't include Nelson? Chacin isn't replacing that.

 

Chacins career numbers very similar to Nelson. Were you talking up Nelson before he had his great season last year? I’d bet not. We’ll see what Johnson does with him. He’s had some pretty successful seasons.

Irrelevant. Whether or not you believe in Nelson going forward, he produced the season he did and that contributed to a top ten pitching staff. To maintain that his production, at the level he performed at last year, needs to be replaced. I don't see anything about Chacin (inclduding his horrid splits) that suggests he can do that.

 

And yes, I was very much a Nelson supporter even when the vast majority of folks wanted to just cut him last spring.

[paul253]

The Brewers were 9th in pitching a year ago, 19th in runs scored. We've added Chacin, and replaced Torres and Drake with real pitchers, and improved the OF defense. We'll be a top ten pitching staff again. I hope the offense can carry it's load this time.

 

Anderson and Nelson also had career years. As we saw with Junior Guerra that can fall apart real quick. Nelson is also coming off a significant shoulder injury and two of the five spots are tossups, with either unproven rookies or veterans who haven’t seen success in a few years as the prime candidates. We’ll see what happens but I’d be surprised if he starting pitching is as good as it was last year.

[homer]

First off, Nelson isn't gone for the whole year. Remains to be seen what he does when he comes back though. Secondly, the Brewers should be MUCH improved at the back end of the rotation. Is that enough to off set losing Nelson for half a season?

[TURBO]

I think it would be foolish to think Nelson will be contributing this season at all. I'd go into this season thinking he will not be a factor, then if he does come back strong, that is a bonus. Setting up our rotation counting on him is a major mistake. Anything positive he does add would just be a little icing on the cake...

[82brewcrew82]

First off, Nelson isn't gone for the whole year. Remains to be seen what he does when he comes back though. Secondly, the Brewers should be MUCH improved at the back end of the rotation. Is that enough to off set losing Nelson for half a season?

Until he is pitching he is gone and so is his production. No one here knows how long that is going to be and you are correct in that we don't know what we get when he does come back. You can hope for the best but the prudent move is to prepare for the worst.

 

I'm not at all sold on the back end of the rotation being at all improved much less "much" improved. Chacin is in prove it mode for me and I'm not at all sold that Suter and Miley are going to be large improvements. Woodruff looks to be tagged for AAA.

[TURBO]

Until he is pitching he is gone and so is his production. No one here knows how long that is going to be and you are correct in that we don't know what we get when he does come back. You can hope for the best but the prudent move is to prepare for the worst.

 

.

 

Exactly.

 

[monty57]

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that.

 

Whether or not last year was the "real" Nelson is a question, but hopefully the injury isn't what would cause any potential regression.

[82brewcrew82]

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that.

 

Whether or not last year was the "real" Nelson is a question, but hopefully the injury isn't what would cause any potential regression.

I remember that as more like it was more likely that he could come back from the type of shoulder injury he had than the more common type and that there wasn't really enough data on injures like this on pitchers to make the judgement one way or the other.

 

I remember it being an encouraging report but not nearly as strong as what you're stating. Even he does come back 100%, we may not see that until next year. Who knows. I just don't think it's the smart play to count on him coming back this year as exactly what he was last year. That seems like a set up for failure.

[Outlander]

We certainly don't know if he will come back 100% this year though. Probably won't know that answer until the All Star Break or trading deadline when it may be too late. Also, I believe the back end of the rotation last year to start the season was Nelson and Anderson so yes I doubt Miley and Suter will be able to match that production.

[paul253]

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that

 

Health wise I’m sure he’ll be able to come back. It’s just a matter of whether he’ll be the same pitcher as before. I think it’s dangerous to expect the same numbers we got from him last season. Plus, even if he does come back how long until he’s 100% with no limits? He’s not going to be throwing a complete game with 120 pitches right off the bat. I’d expect at least 5-6 starts before we really let him go full boat. Best case scenario that’s, what, late July early August?

 

I also question whether our back end is going to be much improved. The fact that we don’t even know who two of our starters are yet should tell you something. I’d love to see Woodruff in there as the 5. But any rotation relying on Junior Guerra or Wade Miley is not one that gives me much comfort.

[coolhandluke121]

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that.

 

Whether or not last year was the "real" Nelson is a question, but hopefully the injury isn't what would cause any potential regression.

 

Nelson always had that potential. He just had to mature and learn to stay ahead in the count and pitch with more strategy. Davies is probably still going to be good because of location and mixing speeds. Anderson was the big fluke last year. I recently read that he had one of the luckiest flyball/hr ratios in all of baseball last year. Many more of those will leave the park this year, as they always did in the past for him.

 

Woodruff has a little more talent than Anderson ever did, but he's young. Suter is very intelligent and understands tempo. I think he will continue to be a little better than a reductionist look at his pitches would leave you to believe. I didn't really see Chacin has last year, but he has to be better than a lot of the guys who pitched last year if he's healthy. Didn't he have some kind of minor nagging injury that he's finally over, like Sogard with his knee?

 

I think the staff will be about average, and I think that's all they need to stay in the top third of the NL. I'm just not at all impressed with any of the other wild card contenders besides Arizona. I don't see any reason to over-pay and give up another draft pick if you're already a strong favorite to claim a wild card and don't really have a realistic chance to hang with any of the division favorites/legit WS contenders.

 

The NL has 3 elite teams, but after that I think it's the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and a whole bunch of mediocre teams that will be hoping to get lucky.

[torts]

from 50 pages ago...

 

When pitchers typically have labral issues it usually refers to the SLAP (Superior Labrum Anterior Posterior). One of the biceps attachments is to this part of the labrum. During throwing mechanics the biceps is very important in the deceleration phase of a pitch. (https://www.physio-pedia.com/Throwing_Biomechanics) Link is a very good explanation. When the biceps is injured, SLAP tear occurs or Rotator Cuff torn it is very difficult to fully recover and be an elite thrower again. There are a lot reasons why and it is very complex. We probably are not good yet perfecting the repair for throwers.

 

Nelson's injury did not involve that area according to reports. His was a bankart tear which is the anterior inferior labrum. This is injured during a shoulder dislocation. This can be repaired and since no major muscle attaches here it should (in theory) not effect his throwing mechanics in the same way. I predicted June as a good timeline for his return and it sounds like that is the Brewer's goal as well. The biggest concern with this surgery is that his shoulder was not tightened up too much with the repair. As long as he regains his full range of motion and full rotator cuff strength, he should be able to return. Hopefully it will be to his elite level he had last year. It would be a huge boost to team in June/July.

[KeithStone53151]

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that.

 

Whether or not last year was the "real" Nelson is a question, but hopefully the injury isn't what would cause any potential regression.

 

Nelson always had that potential. He just had to mature and learn to stay ahead in the count and pitch with more strategy. Davies is probably still going to be good because of location and mixing speeds. Anderson was the big fluke last year. I recently read that he had one of the luckiest flyball/hr ratios in all of baseball last year. Many more of those will leave the park this year, as they always did in the past for him.

 

Woodruff has a little more talent than Anderson ever did, but he's young. Suter is very intelligent and understands tempo. I think he will continue to be a little better than a reductionist look at his pitches would leave you to believe. I didn't really see Chacin has last year, but he has to be better than a lot of the guys who pitched last year if he's healthy. Didn't he have some kind of minor nagging injury that he's finally over, like Sogard with his knee?

 

I think the staff will be about average, and I think that's all they need to stay in the top third of the NL. I'm just not at all impressed with any of the other wild card contenders besides Arizona. I don't see any reason to over-pay and give up another draft pick if you're already a strong favorite to claim a wild card and don't really have a realistic chance to hang with any of the division favorites/legit WS contenders.

 

The NL has 3 elite teams, but after that I think it's the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and a whole bunch of mediocre teams that will be hoping to get lucky.

 

I don't think it's necessarily fair to compare a hr/fb ratio to league average and say "well he's going to do worse when that regresses to average". It isn't that simple. It's like pointing to Santana's very high BABIP and saying he's going to regress to league average when the fact is...his BABIP in a normal season will be well above league average based on the type of contact he makes. Anderson made mechanical adjustments and his stuff improved on all fronts last year. It wouldn't be surprising if he had better than league average ratios in many categories this year and over the next couple years.

 

On a side, I cannot believe how long this thread has gone and how far off topic it goes. I'll be happy when Cobb signs regardless of where just to put an end to this offseason.

[Brewer Fever]

I just skimmed through the last 20 posts and forgive me if someone mentioned this and I missed it. The reason scrap heap guys get signed and ultimately wind up getting the first crack at sticking in the rotation is all about control. The Brewers have to go into any season assuming they'll need 9-10 starters to get through the year. Sure Woodruff, Suter, Wilkerson, etc have more long term upside and could probably provide the same if not slightly better results than the Mileys, Guerras, and Chacins of the world. But those guys can't just be stashed in AAA as easily, if at all. How are you going to compile 9-10 major league arms to fill a rotation without being able to stash 4-5 in the minors? And who are the players the team has the ability to option and keep in the fold? Of course, it's the young guys. You give the reclamation projects every chance to succeed because once they show they can't give you enough quality starts, they're gone. And now you're sitting with one less arm to get through the season.

 

I'm sure I come off as an apologist to many here. I'm let down by what looks a sketchy rotation just like you guys. But there are things we as fans often lose sight of. Things like building organizational depth, the need to be able to store major league caliber players in AAA, free agents who simply choose to go elsewhere no matter how hard our team pushed, and unreasonable asking prices from other teams in trades. I don't care what team you are, you'll never get everything you want. And if you try to acquire players by sheer will, overpaying in terms of dollars or prospects, you will find yourself with no assets left to squander. This is true even for the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs of the world. Even those teams have had their moments where they had to hit the reset button or reign in sending. It's especially true with the small market Brewers. They can't rush the process. They can't just throw $45 million at a Cobb if it doesn't improve their outlook all that much. And they can't bring up all the young guys, cast away vets in the process and find themselves with only Junior Guerra and Aaron Wilkerson as starting pitching depth. Because you sure as heck don't want to start the clock on Burnes and Peralta. They'd be option 7 and 8 if the Mileys and Chacins of the world weren't added cheaply.

 

Without cheap veteran adds, you'd be looking at this to start 2018 --- Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, Guerra in MLB and then its pretty much just Wilkerson before you're left considering Burnes and Peralta. Otherwise you're staring at Bubba Derby and Jon Perrin.

 

Remember it's not black and white. It's not Woodruff vs Miley. It's big picture. It's how do we keep all these guys under our umbrella so we have enough guys to avoid rushing prospects who we don't want to burn service time with.

 

Rant over. Proceed with discouragement and expressing how much this front office has let you down while ignoring real life ramifications of the team doing the things many here are clamoring for. Again, I don't like watching scrap heap guys either. But I get why they're needed and sometimes they even pan out.

[And That]

Miley had a 1.7 Whip last year. No amount of spin will suggest he is anything but a prayer type of signing.

Relying on one year of data and making no mention of underlying talent often leads people to make these kinds of hyperbolic assumptions.

 

Most projections I've seen have Miley as a 1-2 WAR pitcher if he pitches 150 innings. That's perfectly fine for a back end starter.

[KeithStone53151]

I just skimmed through the last 20 posts and forgive me if someone mentioned this and I missed it. The reason scrap heap guys get signed and ultimately wind up getting the first crack at sticking in the rotation is all about control. The Brewers have to go into any season assuming they'll need 9-10 starters to get through the year. Sure Woodruff, Suter, Wilkerson, etc have more long term upside and could probably provide the same if not slightly better results than the Mileys and Chacins of the world. But those guys can't just be stashed in AAA as easily, if at all. How are you going to compile 9-10 major league arms to fill a rotation without being able to stash 4-5 in the minors? And who are the players the team has the ability to option and keep in the fold? Of course, it's the young guys. You give the reclamation projects every chance to succeed because once they show they can't give you enough quality starts, they're gone. And now you're sitting with one less arm to get through the season.

 

I'm sure I come off as an apologist to many here. I'm let down by what looks a sketchy rotation just like you guys. But there are things we as fans often lose sight of. Things like building organizational depth, the need to be able to store major league caliber players in AAA, free agents who simply choose to go elsewhere no matter how hard our team pushed, and unreasonable asking prices from other teams in trades. I don't care what team you are, you'll never get everything you want. And if you try to acquire players by sheer will, overpaying in terms of dollars or prospects, you will find yourself with no assets left to squander. This is true even for the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs of the world. Even those teams have had their moments where they had to hit the reset button or reign in sending. It's especially true with the small market Brewers. They can't rush the process. They can't just throw $45 million at a Cobb if it doesn't improve their outlook all that much. And they can't bring up all the young guys, cast away vets in the process and find themselves with only Aaron Wilkerson as starting pitching depth. Because you sure as heck don't want to start the clock on Burnes and Peralta. They'd be option 7 and 8 if the Mileys and Chacins of the world weren't added cheaply.

 

Remember it's not black and white. It's not Woodruff vs Miley. It's big picture. It's how do we keep all these guys under our umbrella so we have enough guys to avoid rushing prospects who we don't want to burn service time with.

 

Rant over. Proceed with discouragement and expressing how much this front office has let you down while ignoring real life ramifications of the team doing the things many here are clamoring for. Again, I don't like watching scrap heap guys either. But I get why they're needed and sometimes they even pan out.

 

I don't think anyone here is suggesting the Chacin doesn't get a rotation spot. Also, very few teams use 10 starters by necessity. Many do by choice when they decide to go with younger options for a start or 2. I think I saw it posted previously that the odds of 2 of our top 5 starters being on the DL for the same amount of time is 65% and the odds of 3 of the top 5 is less than 30%. That's less than a 30% chance that we need even our 8th starter.

 

Anyways, let's say for arguments sake that Miley is not kept and Suter/Woodruff get the last 2 spots(which would be bad for "options" thinking. We still have Guerra, Wilkerson, and Burnes in AAA. Peralta has a chance to help later in the season, and Nelson is coming back probably in June. There's your 10 starters. Nobody in that group is someone we anticipate being dreadful. It's not like "well Milone is our 6th, Espino is our 7th, and Burgos is our 8th" like last year. Our depth at SP is good enough that we should be picking the best 2 of the 4 remaining candidates to start(assuming no Cobb). If we didn't have Wilkerson, Guerra, Burnes and Nelson...or maybe one of them...then sure I think Miley is virtually guaranteed a spot at that point so we can keep the extra option in AAA. That isn't our situation though...

[Brewer Fever]

I admittedly forgot about Guerra's bonus option. The point still stands. The team will often throughout it's existence need to take a flyer on vet castoffs to lengthen control of prospects and maintain depth. You want a Burnes or a Peralta to force their way onto your major league staff, not be required because you're out of arms. Starting their service clocks because of their performance is one thing, starting it when they're not necessarily ready but you have no choice is a whole other animal.

 

And I edited my post above to reflect what the Brewers would be looking at without having Chacin and Miley under wraps.

[Brewer Fever]

I don't think anyone here is suggesting the Chacin doesn't get a rotation spot.

 

And yes, in recent pages people are now reverting to once again questioning the Chacin signing. That's why I included his name. There are numbers to suggest Chacin and Cobb are on the same plane. The difference is, Chacin came at a bargain price. If Cobb's price drops to that level, or perhaps a little higher even, I imagine the team would definitely have interest in signing him. Perhaps it might still happen.

[paul253]

I just skimmed through the last 20 posts and forgive me if someone mentioned this and I missed it. The reason scrap heap guys get signed and ultimately wind up getting the first crack at sticking in the rotation is all about control

 

That doesn’t make them any better of a pitcher though. Who cares why Miley was signed and is likely in the rotation? The fact is he IS. And as of now Cobb isn’t. Obviously we need depth. But that doesn’t mean we have to sign a bunch of subpar pitchers with the expectation they fill the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. I’d be fine with Miley and Guerra as options number 8 and 9. They can be depth. Not 4 and 5 though.

[Brewer Fever]

I just skimmed through the last 20 posts and forgive me if someone mentioned this and I missed it. The reason scrap heap guys get signed and ultimately wind up getting the first crack at sticking in the rotation is all about control

 

That doesn’t make them any better of a pitcher though. Who cares why Miley was signed and is likely in the rotation? The fact is he IS. And as of now Cobb isn’t. Obviously we need depth. But that doesn’t mean we have to sign a bunch of subpar pitchers with the expectation they fill the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. I’d be fine with Miley and Guerra as options number 8 and 9. They can be depth. Not 4 and 5 though.

 

So you're completely dismissing the fact that Cobb might be looking for 18 times as much money as they committed to Miley? (45 million vs 2.5 million) And also assuming Cobb will drastically outproduce Miley? And also assuming that Cobb even wants to come here?

 

So, apparently it's asking too much to stop for a moment and consider that maybe Cobb at whatever his asking price is, just isn't that much of a perceived upgrade in the Brewers eyes? What if he doesn't find his changeup? Even if he performs like a #3 starter, does that mean it's worth it to max out the budget and leave no room for any other addition? Why can't we think critically and consider these things? If Cobb's price comes down to where his perceived impact matches his price tag, the Brewers may very well jump in. And even then he still might prefer to go elsewhere.