Alex Cobb (Part 3)

[MadThinker88]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

 

Yea people keep posting that, when has Alex ever said that?

 

speculation on my part (& I have no idea if Cobb wants to/ does not want to pitch in MKE) but it might be a related to the knowledge that MKE has had conversations with (& likely made an offer to) Cobb & his agent.

 

Given how slow the market has been and how others are accepting lesser deals at this point, people might be interpreting Cobb still being a free agent as a choice & decision not to take what MKE has put out on table (if they did put anything out there).

[bylo tesi me]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

 

Yea people keep posting that, when has Alex ever said that?

 

 

I'm Guilty. Just speculation on my part, and I'm quite positive if Stearns were to offer him his price, or a contract like Arrieta just signed, he would absolutely LOVE to pitch for Milwaukee. However, Cobb is from Boston, Massachusetts, I believe lives in Vero Beach, Florida. So it seems reasonable if he's going to accept a contract for less than he was hoping for, Milwaukee might not be his preferred choice. Wouldn't be anything personal, Just somewhere like Baltimore might make more sense from a family perspective. Just my pure speculation.

[brewmann04]

that makes good sense

[TJseven7]

I am sorry but really like DS but there "s no way that he or the Brewers can feel this rotation as is can compete for a playoff spot as is. Now maybe Cobb just does not want to come to Milwaukee and that could be the issue no one realizes. But the bottom line No One who competing for Jimmy Nelson spot is any way close to him. I am very concerned over what can we expect from Nelson when he finally returns

 

Depends what you think the staff needs to be for the playoffs.

 

I think you need 3 guys who can combine for a 3.6 era and eat 180 ip per. Then you need options that won't submarine the team era. 4.4 range guys. Our era last year from the staff was 4.1. Our pen was a dysmal 3.85. We pitched a lot of junk and our 4.0 era wasnt the culprit. The 4.5 runs a game was. Our raw stats rival teams that averaged 4.9 runs... why we scored poorly... probably ks and a defunct top of the order.

 

If we can score 4.9 runs a game and hold the same era we are a contending playoff team. Then pen should be better. It seems deeper and more complete going into the season. I've estimated 3.6 era out of the pen. That makes the team era 3.9 if the starters equal last year.

 

The question left is... do you think Anderson can hold at 3.2 era? Do you think chacin and davies can stay healthy at 3.9-4.0 era range? Do you think some combination of Guerra/suter piggy back, miley, woodruff in the 4/5 spots can fight towards a 4.4 era?

 

3.2 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.7 is a staff era of 4.1... equal to last year. If we can shave 1 run off that (from the entire staff) and score 4.9 runs a game we are a 90 win playoff team. As long as you agree with me that the pen looks like a 3.6 era pen.

 

Now add cobb as a mere 3.7 and you shaved that run. So, yeah I'd like him. We'd also have 3 starters at 3.2 3.7 3.9 which averages 3.6 era. Check and check. Nelson is a bonus in 2018.

 

But I also feel a Guerra/Suter piggyback can net a 4.0 era... so thats .7 shaved off. Miley or woodruff at 4.4 era does the trick. Not sure I trust that.

 

Anderson 3.2 cobb 3.7 davies 3.9 chacin 4.0 guerra/suter 4.0 is a fantastic staff era of 3.76. .34 runs better than last year and a likely team era south of 3.7. 3rd in the NL on Azs tail.

 

+1.1 run diff = 90 wins or more. Last year was +.5... offense underachieving by .4.

[CanOfCorn]

Stearns should call up Cobb's agent and offer him 3 years, $45 million with incentives. Get this deal done! A rotation of Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Miley/Guerra,Suter isn't going to cut it. I'm very surprised the Brewers couldn't jump on Arrieta at $25 million/year for only 3 years. That seems like a perfect deal. What we didn't want is to have to sign him for 5+ years. Cobb at $15 million/year, while still a risk, has a lot of upside and certainly doesn't buckle us down for future deals. We can't afford to make a big trade at the deadline for a TOR starter. We need to raise the floor on this rotation with Cobb. There's no way he doesn't accept that offer after seeing Arrieta and Lynn both sign for FAR less than expected overall. If Nelson comes back close to form, a rotation of Nelson/Anderson/Cobb/DAVIES/Chacin,Miley,Guerra,Woodruff by July is very workable when you consider we will have a top 5 offense and defense in the NL this year.

[brewmann04]

I concur with you maybe Mark will get involved

[TJseven7]

Stearns should call up Cobb's agent and offer him 3 years, $45 million with incentives. Get this deal done. A rotation of Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Miley/Guerra,Suter isn't going to cut it. I'm very surprised the Brewers couldn't jump on Arrieta at $25 million/year for only 3 years. That seems like a perfect deal. What we didn't want is to have to sign him for 5+ years. Cobb at $15 million/year, while still a risk, has a lot of upside and certainly doesn't buckle us down for future deals. We can't afford to make a big trade at the deadline for a TOR starter. We need to raise the floor on this rotation with Cobb. If Nelson comes back close to form, a rotation of Nelson/Anderson/Cobb/Chacin/Miley,Guerra,Woodruff by July is very workable when you consider we will have a top 5 offense and defense in the NL this year.

 

1) 2nd time through you forgot Davies. Anderson nelson cobb davies chacin

2) arrieta's deal is bad... its 55/2. Only 75/3 if he sucks. Costs us a 4th and has a opt in after 2 set up to be 75/3. 27.5 aav with a fail safe 20 mil in year 3 if he implodes is gross in my opinion.

 

I'll happily take between 56/4 or 48/3 on cobb.... no tricks or player opt outs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Nelson comes back close to form, a rotation of Nelson/Anderson/Cobb/Chacin/Miley,Guerra,Woodruff by July is very workable when you consider we will have a top 5 offense and defense in the NL this year.

 

"Hey, don't forget about me! I know I look like a 15-year-old, but I won 17 games with a 3.9 ERA, and I'm only 25!" - Zach Davies

[CanOfCorn]

If Nelson comes back close to form, a rotation of Nelson/Anderson/Cobb/Chacin/Miley,Guerra,Woodruff by July is very workable when you consider we will have a top 5 offense and defense in the NL this year.

 

"Hey, don't forget about me! I know I look like a 15-year-old, but I won 17 games with a 3.9 ERA, and I'm only 25!" - Zach Davies

 

 

Haha whoops!

[MNBrew]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

I might've opened that can of worms, albeit unintentionally. I finished my post prior to brewmann04's comment by saying this:

 

Ultimately, if the Brewers don't add Cobb, while I'd be disappointed to some extent, I would still trust Stearns' judgement. It's also possible that Cobb's signing elsewhere could prove to be more of a reflection on Cobb than on the Brewers.

 

As Tom Haudricourt quoted Doug Melvin after Darvish signed with the Cubs, free agents often know where they want to play. If Cobb chooses a different team, ultimately he's choosing that team over Milwaukee. It may not be that he doesn't want to pitch for the Brewers, but in the end he'd be proving that he wanted to pitch somewhere else more than Milwaukee, whatever the reason (or reason$$$) may be. Thus, it could potentially stand to reflect more on Cobb than the Brewers.

 

.... Of course, all such speculation is moot if he signs here.

[adambr2]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

I might've opened that can of worms, albeit unintentionally. I finished my post prior to brewmann04's comment by saying this:

 

Ultimately, if the Brewers don't add Cobb, while I'd be disappointed to some extent, I would still trust Stearns' judgement. It's also possible that Cobb's signing elsewhere could prove to be more of a reflection on Cobb than on the Brewers.

 

As Tom Haudricourt quoted Doug Melvin after Darvish signed with the Cubs, free agents often know where they want to play. If Cobb chooses a different team, ultimately he's choosing that team over Milwaukee. It may not be that he doesn't want to pitch for the Brewers, but in the end he'd be proving that he wanted to pitch somewhere else more than Milwaukee, whatever the reason (or reason$$$) may be. Thus, it could potentially stand to reflect more on Cobb than the Brewers.

 

.... Of course, all such speculation is moot if he signs here.

 

This is why I don't understand when people say "Why didn't we match that offer?" when a player signs elsewhere. Who knows if we did? Other factors come into play in free agency, like proximity to home.

 

Even if it's just aboit the money to a player, the same contract isn't the same amount everywhere. Example on Arrieta, Pennsylvania has a considerably lower state income tax rate than Wisconsin. So we'd have to offer him more just for him to collect the same amount he's collecting in Philly.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is why I don't understand when people say "Why didn't we match that offer?" when a player signs elsewhere. Who knows if we did? Other factors come into play in free agency, like proximity to home.

 

Even if it's just aboit the money to a player, the same contract isn't the same amount everywhere. Example on Arrieta, Pennsylvania has a considerably lower state income tax rate than Wisconsin. So we'd have to offer him more just for him to collect the same amount he's collecting in Philly.

 

I totally agree. While a lot of these guys follow the money first and foremost, there are other factors that come into play in determining where they play.

 

I guess my issue is the people saying "If Cobb hasn't signed here, it must be because he doesn't want to be here." There are so many factors that come into play that make that statement likely blatantly false. Other than our resident "insider", the links of Cobb to the Brewers have been relatively nil. None of us really has any idea what offer the Brewers have made, if any, and what other offers Cobb may be weighing. There is plenty of speculation, but it seems that a lot more concrete information gets leaked concerning other teams than from the Brewers. All we really know is what Attanasio said at Fan Fest saying that the team can afford a high-end pitcher, and Stearns repeating over the last few weeks that they are confident in their current group.

 

That leads me to believe that while the Brewers may view Cobb as an upgrade to their rotation, he isn't the kind of needle-mover that they are going to break the bank for. I have a feeling Cobb's camp knows where the Brewers stand contract-wise, and it's up to him whether to take it and get into camp, or wait out this week hoping one of the other spurned teams like the Orioles or Cards step up and offer more.

 

That, or it could be that they just aren't interested in his services, and the speculation that they are is smoke. I suspect there will be a resolution this week.

[82brewcrew82]

I never thought Darvish seriously considered Milwaukee for no other reason than that it was Milwaukee. Maybe I was wrong, maybe not. However, I believe that was a bit of a unique circumstance and I don't believe that this is a common occurrence where a player just flat refuses to play somewhere. I'm sure it happens, just not often. I do believe players have preferences. I would if I were in those shoes.

[pacopete4]

Take being a Brewers fan (and probably for quite a few people on the site, being from or living in WI) out of the equation with where these guys might want to play. I love Wisconsin but that is because it is where I am from but if I were some of these guys that had no ties to the area, yeah, I'd second guess going to Milwaukee too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Take being a Brewers fan (and probably for quite a few people on the site, being from or living in WI) out of the equation with where these guys might want to play. I love Wisconsin but that is because it is where I am from but if I were some of these guys that had no ties to the area, yeah, I'd second guess going to Milwaukee too.

 

Very few MLB players anywhere live in their team's home city year-around. They have the means to live anywhere they want, and many either live close to where they grew up, or have a off-season home in Florida or Arizona, where it's warm and training is easier.

 

I agree on Darvish, though. I think he probably wanted a big market with a large Asian population. Milwaukee doesn't check either box.

[brewmann04]

I have to think that Cobb really does not want to play for the Brewers at this point unless they seriously overpay.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have to think that Cobb really does not want to play for the Brewers at this point unless they seriously overpay.

 

LOL, wash, rinse, repeat.

 

You have basically repeated this same idea over and over. Care to share your justification behind it?

 

And what's "overpay"? Nowhere has any word of an offer leaked, besides again from our former resident "insider"? But that offer of 3 years/$42 million makes some sense. So what is overpaying? $45 million? $50 million?

 

Also, you continuously harp on the idea that they need a "pitcher to take Nelson's spot", yet you don't want to trade for one. So ... what's the solution?

[brewmann04]

Joey over pay is like 3 /60 its my gut feeling

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Joey over pay is like 3 /60 its my gut feeling

 

Yeah, if he's holding out for 3 years/$60 million, he can go sign with the Orioles and lose. I like Cobb, and he would significantly shore up the rotation, but not at $20 million per.

[TURBO]

Like others have mentioned, I can't wait for this off season charade to end.

 

I don't remember another off season that was so painful.

 

I have enjoyed seeing the new attitudes by GMs though, things may be finally changing on the free agent front, but I'm sure next season will see the same old rich getting richer BS...

[brewmann04]

Joey yes any logical brewer fan should now that Miley and the other arms are no where near the replacement for Nelson.

I don't want us to wipe out our farm system for Guy like Archer like I stated over and over as you so pointed out .

I really thought if we could have added one of the 3 FA arms that would be an equal value replacement for Nelson

[brewmann04]

I agree I enjoyed watching the 3 games on tv and look forward to the game on tv tomorrow, but March 29 can't come soon enough for me too

[82brewcrew82]

Like others have mentioned, I can't wait for this off season charade to end.

 

I don't remember another off season that was so painful.

 

I have enjoyed seeing the new attitudes by GMs though, things may be finally changing on the free agent front, but I'm sure next season will see the same old rich getting richer BS...

I agree. In the end this off season will be weird because the big market teams largely stat out to re set the luxury tax. The small market teams will hold to the new philosophies but the large market teams will do what they always do which will make it look like the same old thing, and it probably will be.

[superfly]

Like others have mentioned, I can't wait for this off season charade to end.

 

I don't remember another off season that was so painful.

 

I have enjoyed seeing the new attitudes by GMs though, things may be finally changing on the free agent front, but I'm sure next season will see the same old rich getting richer BS...

 

On the positive side I think we might have a GM in Green Bay that is looking to deal.

[MrTPlush]

If a player has a living preference that is usually something that leaks out pretty easily. Players are a lot of times open about that kind of thing. Usually location is vastly overrated. They are almost never home to actually do stuff during the season. Games are almost daily so free time really isn’t too common. Off days are usually spent on the road, not in Milwaukee. We have a roof so weather is irrelevant.