Alex Cobb (Part 3)

[82brewcrew82]

DS has said like 1000 times (yes, hyperbole) that he is good with the pitching staff/roster as it is. We can keep calling that GM speak but it's been remarkably consistent GM speak for many weeks now. You can't win a championship in April but you can sure as heck lose one. I think it matters a heck of a lot who occupies that last spot and that is why there are pages and pages dedicated to players who could affect that situation. There is no way I am going to find a way to be comfortable with Miley making any starts for this team.....ever. It might happen but I would consider that a failure if it results from any situation other than our rotation being completely decimated by injuries.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

DS has said like 1000 times (yes, hyperbole) that he is good with the pitching staff/roster as it is. We can keep calling that GM speak but it's been remarkably consistent GM speak for many weeks now. You can't win a championship in April but you can sure as heck lose one. I think it matters a heck of a lot who occupies that last spot and that is why there are pages and pages dedicated to players who could affect that situation. There is no way I am going to find a way to be comfortable with Miley making any starts for this team.....ever. It might happen but I would consider that a failure if it results from any situation other than our rotation being completely decimated by injuries.

 

I guess I was saying that it likely won't matter who takes the #5 spot, because between Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, they are likely to give you similar production, i.e. a 5-something ERA and starts that last 5 innings, putting more pressure on the pen. I guess I didn't word it very well.

 

I hope that if they don't sign anyone, Woodruff would be the #5 pick, as at least he stands a chance of improving, and theoretically has the ability to pitch late into games and not get shelled. But it appears that since he has options, he'll be a AAA depth piece yet again.

 

If we go into the season with Miley in the rotation, while knowing we could have signed Cobb or Arrieta to a fair contract, and we end up out of the playoffs by a game or two at the end of the year because Miley pitches like Wade Miley, it's going to be a bummer. I'm usually an eternal optimist, and even I don't see a guy like Miley being useful.

[coolhandluke121]

every time you turn on MLB Network or a baseball podcast, when they mention the Brewers, the first thing they mention is how they need rotation help. Stearns isn't an idiot

 

No, he's not, but the average casual fan and the media that cater to them arguably are.

[MrTPlush]

David Stearns is not content/happy with what we currently have. Is anyone here content with that getting us to the promised land? No. The question is are we going to find a price to add that we are content with? David Stearns is definitely still actively trying to add a SP, aggressively. That doesn’t mean it will happen though.

[MadScientist]

The Twins were done adding players a week ago, and then they added Lynn. DM smoke screens are all part of the game. Plus if they don't land either, he can act like it was always the plan to not sign anyone.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

every time you turn on MLB Network or a baseball podcast, when they mention the Brewers, the first thing they mention is how they need rotation help. Stearns isn't an idiot

 

No, he's not, but the average casual fan and the media that cater to them arguably are.

 

I'm not real sure what you are trying to get at. 100% of baseball media says we need pitching. It's likely that 95% of the hardcore baseball fans who post here agree. I mean there's not really much of an argument from anyone that the rotation is good to go.

 

Perhaps Stearns is more comfortable with the rotation than all these people are. I know that the best GMs don't listen to outside noise. But at this point, it's gotta be pretty deafening. If they don't add to the rotation, and the offense proves playoff-worthy, but doesn't make it because of the rotation, the second guessing is going to be severe.

[brewmann04]

I think most fans as well as Stearns know we need a better arm than we presently have they have to get an arm to replace Nelson. Right now the best is either Cobb Or Arrieta. Until they sign elsewhere I think one will be a brewer by next week

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

The SP market isn't all that spectacular next offseason, Kershaw is the only guy and really it's probably back to the Dodgers or Yankees huge payday. Keuchel is the next best guy I'd guess and he can barley get by 140 innings the last 2 years and will be 31 or 32. Let's go get Cobb at $15-20 million this year and hope he thinks he can prove it for a bigger deal next year and call it an offseason.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm not real sure what you are trying to get at. 100% of baseball media says we need pitching. It's likely that 95% of the hardcore baseball fans who post here agree. I mean there's not really much of an argument from anyone that the rotation is good to go.

 

 

What I'm getting at is not that they couldn't use a boost to the rotation, it's that guys like Cobb, Arrieta, and Lynn aren't really even great bets to give them the boost they need compared to guys like Suter and Woodruff. Plenty of data about age-related decline and their own individual trajectories would support this. It's just laziness to go out looking for "name" pitchers and pay for the brand/name.

 

In a way it's like any other business; once you've built a brand or a name for yourself, you can rest on your laurels (or cease to provide the same quality and value for whatever reason) and still expect to have great sales for a while before the average person catches on. Anyone who wants to stay ahead of the game - or, more importantly, any small market team that needs to - has to be extremely discerning about buying brand name players and giving up draft picks. That's why they haven't added a pitcher yet. It's probably not because they're being cheap, because certain guys don't want to play in Milwaukee, or because they think they're a contender with the current rotation.

 

My guess is they'll sign someone to a Lynn-type deal (maybe a little more) or just wait and make a trade for a reclamation project or a Woodruff-caliber prospect to build depth and hedge their bets on young guys being able to plug the holes in the rotation.

[adambr2]

every time you turn on MLB Network or a baseball podcast, when they mention the Brewers, the first thing they mention is how they need rotation help. Stearns isn't an idiot

 

No, he's not, but the average casual fan and the media that cater to them arguably are.

 

I'm not real sure what you are trying to get at. 100% of baseball media says we need pitching. It's likely that 95% of the hardcore baseball fans who post here agree. I mean there's not really much of an argument from anyone that the rotation is good to go.

 

Perhaps Stearns is more comfortable with the rotation than all these people are. I know that the best GMs don't listen to outside noise. But at this point, it's gotta be pretty deafening. If they don't add to the rotation, and the offense proves playoff-worthy, but doesn't make it because of the rotation, the second guessing is going to be severe.

 

It's also possible that Stearns believes a number of the following possibilities:

 

- Guerra will rebound closer to 2016 form

- Miley will be a big bounceback candidate with DJ

- Nelson will be good to go by June

- Burnes will be ready for this rotation by June

- Suter can be a more than serviceable back end starter.

 

I'd be pleased with a Cobb signing, but I can also understand if they are comfortable with what they have. People forget this was already a very good rotation last year. It wasn't some bottom feeder pitching staff that just missed the playoffs because of rotation problems.

[brewmann04]

No one knows what to expect from Nelson and that a concern

[MadThinker88]

Perhaps the question needing to be asked is a variable in the overall equation.

 

Does the Brewer Management Group feel good enough about the farm system overall (& starting pitching depth in particular) to forfeit not only a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft, but also a 4th round pick as well? Signing Cobb (or Arietta) means the loss of another draft selection & the associated bonus pool money which impacts the ability to sign other players.

 

On the surface one might think it is easier to absorb a draft pick loss for a 1 year deal with Cobb. But knowing Cobb could depart after the season and there is no way to recoup a draft pick (since he already was offered & declined a QO) might make the down side too great for the front office to go that route..

[bylo tesi me]

I would love to add Cobb, but if they don't I am guessing it's because Stearns may have something better lined up. it's interesting they haven't traded their outfield/1st base logjam yet. Perhaps something is lined up that is better than Cobb/Arrieta. Someone younger, cheaper, and more controllable. Possible they are just waiting till the end of spring training to be sure no injuries before finalizing.

[titletownking]

I would love to add Cobb, but if they don't I am guessing it's because Stearns may have something better lined up. it's interesting they haven't traded their outfield/1st base logjam yet. Perhaps something is lined up that is better than Cobb/Arrieta. Someone younger, cheaper, and more controllable. Possible they are just waiting till the end of spring training to be sure no injuries before finalizing.

 

I think this is the wrong train of thought. We’ve been thinking all offseason some big move is coming but I think it’s time to just come to the conclusion that Stearns has literally been saying we’re done for a month now. I know that it’s conceived as GM talk but at this point it just sounds like honesty. I too, expect the Brewers biggest moves are behind them and will go to opening day as is. Time to move on and prepare for Opening day, rotation looks average so hopefully offense is improved adding a couple seasoned hitters.

[bylo tesi me]

I would love to add Cobb, but if they don't I am guessing it's because Stearns may have something better lined up. it's interesting they haven't traded their outfield/1st base logjam yet. Perhaps something is lined up that is better than Cobb/Arrieta. Someone younger, cheaper, and more controllable. Possible they are just waiting till the end of spring training to be sure no injuries before finalizing.

 

I think this is the wrong train of thought. We’ve been thinking all offseason some big move is coming but I think it’s time to just come to the conclusion that Stearns has literally been saying we’re done for a month now. I know that it’s conceived as GM talk but at this point it just sounds like honesty. I too, expect the Brewers biggest moves are behind them and will go to opening day as is. Time to move on and prepare for Opening day, rotation looks average so hopefully offense is improved adding a couple seasoned hitters.

 

Fair enough. Certainly reasonable assumption. My thinking is just pure speculation. However I will wait till the end of spring training till I'm convinced the brewers are content with what they have currently.

[brewmann04]

I am sorry but really like DS but there "s no way that he or the Brewers can feel this rotation as is can compete for a playoff spot as is. Now maybe Cobb just does not want to come to Milwaukee and that could be the issue no one realizes. But the bottom line No One who competing for Jimmy Nelson spot is any way close to him. I am very concerned over what can we expect from Nelson when he finally returns

[BillScottCanRake]

I think it could be fair to say the Brewers will both go into this season with their rotation "as is" and they are not content with what they have.

 

I think that Stearns would probably like to add a starter, but he isn't going to add players that are not a good value or aren't measurably better than the guys on the roster. Yes, improving the rotation seems to be necessary to put the Brewers into a better spot to make the post season, but it has to be done with an eye on the future. I think for whatever reason, he doesn't like the guys available (either FA or via trade) to pay the price needed.

[brewmann04]

i dont think if you add Cobb for like a 3year deal with hurt this team future but respect what you are talking about

[MNBrew]

I'm still hopeful the Brewers add Cobb -- the excitement would be great fun and a nice reward for all the wait.

 

That said, I don't think the in-house alternatives are exactly chopped liver, either. I've tended to believe in Suter all along, and it's possible Miley's successfully rediscovering his previous (not totally sucking) form.

 

Ultimately, if the Brewers don't add Cobb, while I'd be disappointed to some extent, I would still trust Stearns' judgement. It's also possible that Cobb's signing elsewhere could prove to be more of a reflection on Cobb than on the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

There is a possibility that Suter and Miley may not last in the rotation very long. You'll have jimmy ready by July (yes, I know he may not be himself but you never know) then there is the possibility that we can call up Burnes, or Peralta, or trade for somebody if it's that bad. I want to add a starter but I suppose it's not the end of the world if we don't. A rotation of Chase, Davies, Chacin, Jimmy, and Burnes looks pretty damn good in my oppinion.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

[DR28]

I will be kinda disappointed when i hear that Cobb signs elsewhere but i agree maybe Cobb might not want to pitch in Milwaukee.

 

Where does the narrative that he doesn't want to pitch in Milwaukee come from? I don't get that feeling at all.

 

Yea people keep posting that, when has Alex ever said that?

[82brewcrew82]

Does the demand for the last big starter mean the price drives up on Cobb?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Does the demand for the last big starter mean the price drives up on Cobb?

Probably? Could see 3-4 years at $13-16 aav being what it takes. I’d be shocked if he takes or the best offer is a Lynn deal. Us, Orioles, Padres, Cardinals, Nats, Red Sox I think all still could be in and maybe a “mystery team” like Mariners, Angels or Rangers.