Alex Cobb (Part 3)

[82brewcrew82]

I agree that the Cobb stuff went way overboard and you're absolutely correct on that point. However, you are going to have to trade the same assets mid season that no one wants to trade now. What is the difference? I put no credence in spring numbers.........at all. I have a tad bit of faith in Suter and absolutely none in Miley. It would be so awesome if I'm wrong.

 

I would put the chances of you being wrong on Miley at about 1%. Even with my most Brewer-colored goggles, I see no scenario where he doesn't suck. I hated that signing when it happened, and nothing has changed.

 

Is it wrong that I kind of get mad every time he has a decent spring training outing?

So where is this upgrade over Garza and others from last year? I just don't see the rotation as not having lost ground.

[gebc1997]

Suter is an upgrade on Garza, so is woodruff. Miley would just have to do better than peralta, milone st al

[82brewcrew82]

Suter is an upgrade on Garza, so is woodruff. Miley would just have to do better than peralta, milone st al

Garza wasn't bad the first half. I don't know what Suter or Woodruff are right now. Maybe they are better, but neither has started a full season so that is an assumption at this point. I'm pretty convinced Miley/Gallardo/Guerra and others are......not good. That is based on past performance, not a hope that they will be better. Being wrong here would be really cool.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I agree that the Cobb stuff went way overboard and you're absolutely correct on that point. However, you are going to have to trade the same assets mid season that no one wants to trade now. What is the difference? I put no credence in spring numbers.........at all. I have a tad bit of faith in Suter and absolutely none in Miley. It would be so awesome if I'm wrong.

 

I would put the chances of you being wrong on Miley at about 1%. Even with my most Brewer-colored goggles, I see no scenario where he doesn't suck. I hated that signing when it happened, and nothing has changed.

 

Is it wrong that I kind of get mad every time he has a decent spring training outing?

So where is this upgrade over Garza and others from last year? I just don't see the rotation as not having lost ground.

 

I would say Chacin is an upgrade on Garza without a doubt. But right now, Chacin is Nelson's replacement, which is a big downgrade on paper. If Miley is in the rotation, they've lost ground. He's the left-handed version of Garza. I am bullish on Anderson and Davies, and Chacin should be able to put up numbers good enough to keep the team in most games. I like Suter, but if he doesn't take a big step, they will be in trouble.

[gebc1997]

I posted earlier in some thread, they all run together this :

 

25 starts for Miley last year, 3.78 era,

His other 7 did him in with a 17.08 era

 

His era after 11 starts was 2.82

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Suter is an upgrade on Garza, so is woodruff. Miley would just have to do better than peralta, milone st al

 

They team will likely need 9-10 starters at least throughout the season. It's not a matter of if Suter and Woodruff are better than the crap they tossed out there last year. It's a matter of if the 9th or 10th guy on the depth chart is. That's where I feel Stearns has dropped the ball. Just one FA starter would have bumped the others down the totem pole, or off it completely. But now we are looking at either retreads like Miley, Gallardo, Guerra, or rookies like Woodruff, Burnes, Derby and Wilkerson making meaningful starts as the 6th-7th guys on the depth chart, instead of the 10th or 11th on the chart, or not even on it at all in the case of a few of them.

[MNBrew]

It's implicit in the defensive nature with which you respond to just about every post that suggests this team is mediocre or worse. My critiques of this team don't exist because I hate this team. Lord knows there are easier teams to root for than the Brewers. I travel thousands of miles and spend thousands of dollars to make sure my boys and I get the chance to not only watch this team, but to watch them in Milwaukee. You don't do that if you don't, literally, love this team.

 

That in no way precludes me from seeing the faults with the is team. Faults many, many other people see too. They could have addressed those faults, they didn't. Time will tell what the consequences for that are.

 

There are also a lot of people that are excited about this team's chances, flaws and all. I see the team's flaws, and I know they stand a strong chance of holding them back. I think that Stearns has dropped the ball in a major way from February on, and the result is a rotation with serious question marks and a positional roster that, while extremely talented, doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

But it's March, and they have the whole season ahead of them. Could the team be bad? Sure. But I think the chances are better that they won't be. But I at least want to see them play some games before they are written off. There's no need to piss an anyone's cornflakes in March.

On top of that, there are still 2 weeks of spring training left. And Stearns already has a history with this team of making acquisitions affecting the final 25-man roster late in spring training.

 

We are what we are now, and the complete Opening Day roster might entirely be players who are already here. There could also be changes before then -- granted, though, the lack of meaningfully/impact moves after the Yelich/Cain day and the loud (public) silence surrounding any "needle-moving" rotation upgrades doesn't exactly discourage skepticism that anything substantial will happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I posted earlier in some thread, they all run together this :

 

25 starts for Miley last year, 3.78 era,

His other 7 did him in with a 17.08 era

 

His era after 11 starts was 2.82

 

For a team that missed the playoffs by one game last year, those 7 starts where he got shelled would seem to me like they might be a big deal.

[82brewcrew82]

I would say Chacin is an upgrade on Garza without a doubt. But right now, Chacin is Nelson's replacement, which is a big downgrade on paper. If Miley is in the rotation, they've lost ground. He's the left-handed version of Garza. I am bullish on Anderson and Davies, and Chacin should be able to put up numbers good enough to keep the team in most games. I like Suter, but if he doesn't take a big step, they will be in trouble.

That is an excellent summation. One could argue that Anderson is a regression candidate just to stir up the cornflakes. However, I think Anderson and Davies have a strong (and longer) track record to base some optimism off ofhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/posting.php?mode=quote&f=66&p=1092262. I'm kind of confused as to why Chacin is inked in as an upgrade. There are legit reasons for concern there.

 

Edit: I'm lazy but I'd be interested in the home/road splits for Chacin last year.

[82brewcrew82]

I posted earlier in some thread, they all run together this :

 

25 starts for Miley last year, 3.78 era,

His other 7 did him in with a 17.08 era

 

His era after 11 starts was 2.82

 

For a team that missed the playoffs by one game last year, those 7 starts where he got shelled would seem to me like they might be a big deal.

I agree. The line is razor thin for this team so up and down performance isn't comforting. Not to mention he wasn't very good the year before either.

[gebc1997]

I'm ok with my teams 5th stsrter having quality starts 3/4 of the time. The blowup games would be losses either way 1/4 of the time for any teams 5th stsrter. The Brewers are gonna get blown out 10-20 times no matter what. Those just happen. I'll take 3.78 from my 5th starter

[gebc1997]

All this being said, I do agree that Cobb would be a wise pickup, I just don't feel it's sign Cobb or bust

[trwi7]

I posted earlier in some thread, they all run together this :

 

25 starts for Miley last year, 3.78 era,

His other 7 did him in with a 17.08 era

 

His era after 11 starts was 2.82

 

For a team that missed the playoffs by one game last year, those 7 starts where he got shelled would seem to me like they might be a big deal.

 

Not only that but the more bad starts you have, the more you need your bullpen to fill the gaps, which tires them, which limits their effectiveness until you can get them some rest either from the All-Star Break or a couple of off days fairly close together and you can't guarantee that those blowup starts are going to come at a time where there will be some rest days for the bullpen to get back in order.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would say Chacin is an upgrade on Garza without a doubt. But right now, Chacin is Nelson's replacement, which is a big downgrade on paper. If Miley is in the rotation, they've lost ground. He's the left-handed version of Garza. I am bullish on Anderson and Davies, and Chacin should be able to put up numbers good enough to keep the team in most games. I like Suter, but if he doesn't take a big step, they will be in trouble.

That is an excellent summation. One could argue that Anderson is a regression candidate just to stir up the cornflakes. However, I think Anderson and Davies have a strong (and longer) track record to base some optimism off ofhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/posting.php?mode=quote&f=66&p=1092262. I'm kind of confused as to why Chacin is inked in as an upgrade. There are legit reasons for concern there.

 

Edit: I'm lazy but I'd be interested in the home/road splits for Chacin last year.

 

Lets just say he liked PETCO Park.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=chacijh01&t=p&year=2017

 

But he does have a history as a solid pitcher at Coors. I just wish it was more recent.

[wallus]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm ok with my teams 5th stsrter having quality starts 3/4 of the time. The blowup games would be losses either way 1/4 of the time for any teams 5th stsrter. The Brewers are gonna get blown out 10-20 times no matter what. Those just happen. I'll take 3.78 from my 5th starter

 

So would I. But Miley didn't put up a 3.78. It isn't like the starts where he got shelled don't count.

 

The problem with putting a guy in your rotation that you know is going to get rocked every 3rd or 4th time out is that there is not much room for the other times when your other starters get rocked. Every starter has bad games. That's a ton of pressure on the bullpen to pick up the innings for a guy that's going to get shelled that much.

[gebc1997]

With Miley last year, it was kinda 5 starts in the middle of the season that were awful, it wasn't really every 4th start that was bad, he had one awful month in like June early July.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm ok with my teams 5th stsrter having quality starts 3/4 of the time. The blowup games would be losses either way 1/4 of the time for any teams 5th stsrter. The Brewers are gonna get blown out 10-20 times no matter what. Those just happen. I'll take 3.78 from my 5th starter

 

So would I. But Miley didn't put up a 3.78. It isn't like the starts where he got shelled don't count.

 

The problem with putting a guy in your rotation that you know is going to get rocked every 3rd or 4th time out is that there is not much room for the other times when your other starters get rocked. Every starter has bad games. That's a ton of pressure on the bullpen to pick up the innings for a guy that's going to get shelled that much.

That would also be more palatable if the top of the rotation was a bit stronger.

[gebc1997]

I think Anderson Davies chacin woodruff and suter will be a quality rotation until we can add Nelson back by June something

[brewmann04]

Suter and Miley are very shaky back end staters and not sure Woodruff makes this rotation. The biggest question mark if and when Nelson comes back and how effective he will be. This is the biggest concern at this point

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Anderson Davies chacin woodruff and suter will be a quality rotation until we can add Nelson back by June something

 

That would be my rotation preference. I am about 90% sure that won't be the opening day rotation, though. There are just too many signs that they are going to gift the 5th spot to Guerra or Miley. Which would be the Brewers' way of pissing in my cornflakes.

 

Putting Guerra AND Miley in the rotation would be the equivalent of crapping in my cornflakes LOL.

[istanbultaye]

I think the chances that Miley can hold down a 5 ip / start 4.5 ERA or better is much greater than 1%. As long as they don't hold out hope on him for 10 starts of badness I am not going to complain about giving him a shot at the backend of the rotation. I think they've already shown a willingness to move on from some of these "give them a shot" pitchers as they've already taken Yo out of the rotation race.

[Boomer5]

Miley had a 1.7 Whip last year. No amount of spin will suggest he is anything but a prayer type of signing.

[Boomer5]

Chacin had a 6.53 ERA away from Petco.

 

No, the rotation did not stay the same.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the chances that Miley can hold down a 5 ip / start 4.5 ERA or better is much greater than 1%. As long as they don't hold out hope on him for 10 starts of badness I am not going to complain about giving him a shot at the backend of the rotation. I think they've already shown a willingness to move on from some of these "give them a shot" pitchers as they've already taken Yo out of the rotation race.

 

My problem with the idea of Miley is it's a page straight out of the mid-2000s Brewers handbook of "sign a bunch of junk, and start the best of them." That's how we got the likes of Victor Santos, Wes Obermueller and Wayne Franklin in those intrepid rotations. I guess I incorrectly thought that the new regime was going to focus on developing in-house pitching, and give them chances to produce. There is simply nothing that Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff have left to prove at AAA to warrant a guy like Miley getting a spot over them. The fact that they didn't make a move other than Chacin to strengthen the pitching staff tells me that they are not in "go for it" mode, so I guess that's another reason I don't understand why they wouldn't roll with Suter and Woodruff, as those guys stand a much better chance of being part of the team when it is going for it than Miley does.

 

I would have been more enthused about Yo, but that's my heart talking, not my head. I'm a sucker for nostalgia.