Alex Cobb (Part 3)

[Warning Track Power]

The Brewers aren't getting Cobb but I don't believe it is because of money. I believe the FO sees Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff and perhaps Ortiz as being exceptionally close to being in the MLB rotation and the cost differential between them and Cobb doesn't warrant his signing. With Anderson and Davies already established and Chacin, Miley and Suter as holdovers, I think the Brewers are fully anticipating Burnes, Nelson and Woodruff in the rotation come the all star break.

[brewmann04]

I tell you this rotation pitched very well last season and now lost Nelson can Davies and Anderson have another career year? But I be very surprised to see these current 5 carry us into a wildcard spot. I just hope Cobb gets a monster multi year deal so then I would not be as upset.

But I hope the rotation shocks me and makes me look foolish.

 

enough end this and lets start the season already

[monty57]

There's whispers of Yankees and Cobb talking... Yea we're not getting Alex... So disappointed!

 

THEN Woodruff better be in our rotation...

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Suter

 

^ is our best shot at surviving until Jimmy comes back.

Woodruff isn't going to be in the opening day rotation.

 

If we go with two of Miley, Guerra, Gallardo, Suter then we're basically hoping that we win more 12-10 games than we lose.

 

"By committee" games worked to some extent for us in September last year when we were allowed to have 40 guys on the roster. It wouldn't work over a full season. Woodruff has done enough through his minor league career to earn a spot in the rotation. If we block him with the junk we have (in conjunction with things like leaving Hader in the pen and trading away a bunch of minor leaguers) then the whole "young, controllable talent" line Stearns has been using has been a lie.

[tmwiese55]

Could also be a way to keep his innings down a bit too by starting the other guys at the beginning. Then someone will get hurt or flame out and steps in but his innings are reduced by a few weeks worth of starts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There's whispers of Yankees and Cobb talking... Yea we're not getting Alex... So disappointed!

 

THEN Woodruff better be in our rotation...

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Suter

 

^ is our best shot at surviving until Jimmy comes back.

Woodruff isn't going to be in the opening day rotation.

 

Says who? He's still in Major League camp, looked really good yesterday.

 

I agree that I would like to see Woodruff in the rotation, but I have a suspicion that he won't be, simply because junk like Miley is viewed as depth. I would like to hear 82brewcrew82's reasoning, though.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If we go with two of Miley, Guerra, Gallardo, Suter then we're basically hoping that we win more 12-10 games than we lose.

 

"By committee" games worked to some extent for us in September last year when we were allowed to have 40 guys on the roster. It wouldn't work over a full season. Woodruff has done enough through his minor league career to earn a spot in the rotation. If we block him with the junk we have (in conjunction with things like leaving Hader in the pen and trading away a bunch of minor leaguers) then the whole "young, controllable talent" line Stearns has been using has been a lie.

 

Yep. What does it tell guys like Suter and Woodruff who have put in their time and earned a spot? I would get a guy like Cobb, because he would be a clear upgrade on paper to Suter/Woodruff, but Miley sure and heck isn't.

[FVBrewerFan]

Remember Melvin's comment. "Players know where they want to play." Without getting into the why, it could be very possible he just didn't want to come to Milwaukee. I have no doubt DS has been kicking the tires, but either it was clear Cobb didn't have a strong interest, his price was too high, or both. And by "price too high" I mean according to Stearns and their scouting dept., not what the masses think is a good deal.

 

On the other hand, yes, I think it's always possible it's Stearns posturing.

[brewmann04]

Yes Cobb would have been a upgrade over our 3.4.5 starters. I be curious what role if any did Matt Arnold have with this situation.

[DR28]

Yes Cobb would have been a upgrade over our 3.4.5 starters. I be curious what role if any did Matt Arnold have with this situation.

 

Yea Im just very surprised HOW Stearns doesnt see Cobb as an upgrade over Chacin, Woodruff, Suter, Guerra and Miley... I dont get it.

[brewmann04]

I expect their much much more than we know or ever will know about these negations.

[SeaBass]

I tell you this rotation pitched very well last season and now lost Nelson can Davies and Anderson have another career year? But I be very surprised to see these current 5 carry us into a wildcard spot. I just hope Cobb gets a monster multi year deal so then I would not be as upset.

But I hope the rotation shocks me and makes me look foolish.

 

enough end this and lets start the season already

 

In the deep, dark recesses of my brain the thought has blossomed that Stearns and the FO are not overly concerned about the wildcard/playoffs this season. I feel like last year was a pleasant surprise and they're trying to build on that, but they're not necessarily going all out for it yet either. The Cain and Yelich additions look like win now moves but even if they miss the playoffs this year those guys will still be around for several more years. I think next year is the year they're really going to push for it. This year is a wait and see and hope to catch lightning in a bottle... again.

 

This is only my opinion and it's only one possibility that's bounced around in my slightly crazy attic of a mind. It does not mean that that's what I think they SHOULD do.

 

I have no real basis for this other than the fact they have NOT signed one of the big free agent starters. In a year where not only does it make sense for them to sign one, but the big markets are generally staying away, which only heightens their chances of actually getting one of them to agree to come to Milwaukee and at a price that fits their market.

[tmwiese55]

That's probably true. However, I'd then say the Cain signing shouldn't have happened with his age if you're kinda throwing away one of the good years knowing the last year or two will likely be not up to par with his pay

[SeaBass]

I think that's a valid opinion about Cain. I also think that the crazy market may have fooled Stearns into thinking he really could swing a trade for Archer or another upgraded starter. Clearly he thought he could trade Santana and part of me is still in disbelief that he couldn't.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't think Alex Cobb is receiving any 3 year/$45 M offers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Conversely, since Cobb was likened more to Lynn than to Arrieta, it's possible that he's only receiving one-year offers and he's holding out in hopes someone will break and give him a multi-year deal.

 

THIS

[badger3034]

That's probably true. However, I'd then say the Cain signing shouldn't have happened with his age if you're kinda throwing away one of the good years knowing the last year or two will likely be not up to par with his pay

 

They obviously think that Cain is going to age well, otherwise they wouldn't have given him a 5 year deal. If they're not willing to talk to Lynn, who wouldn't be leaving his division, and signed a 1 year deal, they clearly think he's going to play well throughout his contract. The front office has a clear, concise plan, and I feel that is comforting. None of us know what that is, because we each all know what we want, but they know much better since they see everything first hand. Whether it's you want Santana or Broxton traded, or Cobb signed, Stearns already has his dominoes laid I feel.

[SeaBass]

That's probably true. However, I'd then say the Cain signing shouldn't have happened with his age if you're kinda throwing away one of the good years knowing the last year or two will likely be not up to par with his pay

 

They obviously think that Cain is going to age well, otherwise they wouldn't have given him a 5 year deal. If they're not willing to talk to Lynn, who wouldn't be leaving his division, and signed a 1 year deal, they clearly think he's going to play well throughout his contract. The front office has a clear, concise plan, and I feel that is comforting. None of us know what that is, because we each all know what we want, but they know much better since they see everything first hand. Whether it's you want Santana or Broxton traded, or Cobb signed, Stearns already has his dominoes laid I feel.

 

Right, but I think he changed his domino pattern right around the time the Archer trade talks ended. It's possible (likely?) he decided to wait and see how the season goes and make moves for starting pitching as the season progresses (and if the team is contending) rather than do it up front. Thus, no Lance Lynn, no Alex Cobb, no Lucroy, no Walker.

 

I still like the Cain signing while at the same time understanding why others feel it may not have been the best thing for the team as it's currently constructed. Time will tell if it works out or not.

[HarveysWBs]

but i be very surprised to see these current 5 carry us into a wildcard spot.

 

Oh, I can guarantee that "these five" (Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, Woodruff--or sub Miley in if you wish) will not "carry us into a wildcard spot." In fact, I'd even bet dollars to doughnuts that Stearns himself doesn't believe that, either. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the whole point of this rotation experiment.

 

But wait, you might say, didn't Stearns express confidence in this current group of starters? Sure did. Or, didn't Attanasio say late in the offseason that money was available to add a new piece? Yep (and more on that in a minute).

 

Others have noted this already, so I won't belabor the point too much, but our Brewers, as an organization, cannot get trapped into two fallacious modes of thought: 1) we must go tit for tat with the big-spending organizations on every single acquisition and 2) the way teams have been constructed in the past is the way they must always be constructed in saecula saeculorum and is The Only Right Way to Build a Champion ©. Many of the problems with this should be obvious, but in short:

 

1) We do not have the money to make the kind of mistakes the Cubs and Yankees can make and still field an above-average ball club. Guaranteed contracts and the difficulty we will always seem to have in luring people to spend much of their lives in Milwaukee mean we need to make all our dollars count as much as we can. Now, granted, I love Milwaukee as a town, although I've never really lived there, and sure, some people like Lorenzo Cain seem to like it a lot, too, but he seems more of an exception, not the rule. So we have to play a slightly different game. But, consider, the big-ticket FA route is still risky: if Darvish goes down, or Lester and Hendricks regress, all of which are serious possibilities, and the Cubs are in trouble, even if their offensive struggles last year were an aberration and the bullpen is improved (which, I will note, are still ifs and will have to be proven on the field this year).

 

2) Roster construction and deployment of pitching is changing. Relief aces are becoming more valuable all the time. In a sort of renaissance of the old fireman principle, people like Andrew Miller and his imitations (Josh Hader, anyone?) are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how teams are rethinking what it takes to build a successful pitching staff. It is about survival as much as it is about anything else. Your biggest threat to lose a game might not be in the 5/6 innings your starter happens to pitch, and it might not be in the 9th inning, either. If it comes after your starter leaves with two on and one out in the 5th inning, having multiple solid options to come into the game and take care of that situation is invaluable. Maybe that is a Hader who can go two and a third wipeout innings against the top-7 hitters of a squad like Chicago or New York. Maybe its a swingman like Guerra who can get you through an otherwise nightmare game without taxing the bullpen. And, in the biggest rethink of all, teams seem to be finally appreciating the fact that "those five" guys you start the season with are not the only ones you will ever hand the ball to at the start of ballgames, and those fill-in starts still count, too.

 

A few years ago, Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-many-starters-does-a-team-need-then/) estimated that on average, baseball teams have a 65% chance of two of their "preferred" starters will be hurt at the same time, and 32% chance of it happening to three of those starters at the same time. Most crucially, if a baseball team sees only average rates of attrition (6 DL stints for their starting staff throughout the year, totaling as many as 360 days), then that team will have it's preferred starters together for only 22% of the season. Even excluding year-long DL stints, that could still account for 32 starts made by starters 6-??. I don't have to tell you in a two-team wildcard scenario, those 32 games could more than make or break reaching the play-in game, or even winning a division.

 

So how do the Brewers look on that front? Baseball Prospectus Milwaukee (http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/12/the-rotation-is-good/) has a good rundown, but TL;DR--"While the Brewers’ overall rotation may have an 'average' outlook, once replacement rotations begin to appear in the 2018 MLB, the Milwaukee replacements will have a runs prevented advantage of at least 30 runs (assessed against other teams’ replacements)." That means our rotation is in position to save 30 runs above average just because of our fill-in starters when compared to the fill-in starters of most other clubs. Teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, National, and Yankees have invested a lot of resources in fielding great "top of the rotation" talent, and, sure, when all those pitchers take the field, advantage those teams. But they won't all take the field every 5th day, what's more, the Brewers know this, and have prepared enough above-average replacements to claw back the difference once attrition rears its ugly head. That is the plan for competing with the big wallets.

 

Finally, however, what about Attanasio's quote mentioned above? Maybe he was feeling good and was only telling an energetic crowd what they wanted to hear. Cynics might say its all a ploy by hucksters and cheapskates to sell more tickets and improve the bottom line without ever spending enough to field a real winner. That is possible, I suppose. Or, perhaps Attanasio and Stearns know something else: while what we might call the "defend against attrition" strategy is a great way to win games over a long season, it can all quickly go for nothing in a 5 or 7-game series during the playoffs. You don't have time to just play the averages when there might be no tomorrow. That is when you really need your aces. And having the prospect capital and financial wiggle room to go get a guy like that (and whatever Cobb is, I feel pretty confident in saying he isn't "TOR") when the season is nearing its second half is how you put an otherwise good team over the top for a championship run. That is how the Astros did it last year, and not trading for an Archer or signing a Cobb/Lynn/Darvish/Arrieta now means we can still do that when we absolutely need to and know our time is at hand.

 

So I say, forget about Cobb (although I wish him well), and let's realize we're looking at the bleeding edge of how to make a small-market club competitive. I don't have a crystal ball, so maybe this all doesn't work. Round balls and round bats lead to some pretty random results, and all the planning in the world won't guarantee you a championship sometimes. But I am confident in saying that Stearns and Attanasio really do want to build a winner, and really do think this roster as constructed is the best way available to them to do it. I can't wait to see what happens.

[istanbultaye]

I would expect Cain to decline by the end of his 5 year deal, but how much? I can buy into an argument that he profiles to age more gracefully than several of the older pitchers that have burned the Brewers over the last 10-15 years, giving legitimacy to a 4-5 year window with him and Yelich.

[tmwiese55]

I think that's a valid opinion about Cain. I also think that the crazy market may have fooled Stearns into thinking he really could swing a trade for Archer or another upgraded starter. Clearly he thought he could trade Santana and part of me is still in disbelief that he couldn't.

 

Agreed. My guess would be that he got boned by a team or two on generally ballpark agreed to trades of Santana.

 

ETA: that was my worry when all this started. So you have money available to spend, rather than spend it on an OF and then try to trade for a P. Why not just spend on P and keep your cost controlled 25 yr old, just seems so much simpler and less chances of something falling through like has happened. But I do get it and am not about to stomp my feet, they think they Cain will not drop off hard and they value the contact skills and D. While knowing the risk of pitcher contracts for 30+ year olds. I don't think they're incompetent for misreading the Santana trade market or going this route for the reasons I just said, it happens no one is perfect, and likely someone along the way lied to him putting him in this spot. Now make the best of it, see how the season plays out up to the deadline and keep petitioning the league for the DH.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Excellent post Harvey! A long time reader of this forum (since Rickie Weeks was in Beloit) but a limited poster, it is nice to see a very nice well thought out post. This has become too infrequent around here lately with the repetition of posts and the lack of depth in the amount of posters on a given subject. Please bring more of this!

 

It may be tough to accept the rotation as is, but what you say makes some sense.....rotations have replacements that are always needed and the Brewers are building depth in that area (and haven't dealt any pitching of significance to acquire anyone yet) so Woodruff and Burnes can be used to take some starts later and provide better results than Chicago's 6th or 7th's guy.

 

We just have to hope Anderson and Davies were not major flukes and there is always concern for that and Jimmy Nelson's irregular shoulder injury gets him on the field quicker without a loss in stuff as the Good Orthopedic Doc poster suggested may be the case. If they perform well and injuries hit someone, we can grab Suter, Woodruff, Miley, or whomever is next up and pick up wins that way.

 

The offense should give us a better chance to win more games with Cain and Yelich added and the bullpen points you made are outstanding....the Brewers pen can be filthy at the RIGHT TIMES. Heck there was a game last year against the Cubs (Guerra couldn't throw strikes and got demoted afterward) and CC went to Hader against the tough Cubs lineup and he pitched 3+ innings (if I remember) and allowed zilch. He was blowing them away. The Brewers lost the game but in a high pressure situation in the earlier part of the game, Hader shut down the Cubs and kept the Brewers close. Critical way of thinking. You need multiple bullpen aces....

 

Again great post!

[CheezButt]

David Stearns on not adding another pitcher, via @1057FMTheFan: "we like the guys we have...we just didn't find something that made sense. The players that we identified as meaningful improvements over what we have didn't make sense cost-wise."

Sounds like the Cobb bus has left the gate.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

David Stearns on not adding another pitcher, via @1057FMTheFan: "we like the guys we have...we just didn't find something that made sense. The players that we identified as meaningful improvements over what we have didn't make sense cost-wise."

Sounds like the Cobb bus has left the gate.

 

Why did you repost this?

[Boomer5]

I still can not believe the long list of posters here who don't want cobb at a very reasonable 45/3 type deal. Dreaming on arrieta (bad idea in my opinion) and yu was one thing. But last guy standing. Clearly would be our 3. Upside. Stuff that ages well. A guy you'd want in a playoff rotation. Buying in a depressed market.

 

I don't know who would be good enough for some of you. Would anyone plausible be a big enough upgrade over Miley? These guys must be lined up ready to hand away our farm except for hiura lutz and I'm sure the guy they want has a 4.0 era and a K spiked fip.

 

We have a chance to be one of the big buyers in the market, which is insanely rare and some dudes don't want us to open the door. I just don't get it.

 

It's 4 options left:

I see the mlb thread and we land cobb... fantastic dancing cheering fantastic unless the contract really surprises me.

I see the mlb thread and cobb goes elsewhere... furious throwing things furious unless the contract really surprises me.

 

He shaves .2 runs off our rotation era if he can go 180 innings and be the guy he was last year and he was meh. That puts the team in 90 win strata. Yet, pass?

 

Watching gb trade for Kizer and cut the wrong wr for a TE who is on fumes has me panicked this franchise is going off a cliff... give me this!

 

I was definitely not a Cobb fan at a crazy Cain style contract but at these prices I really have no idea what Stearns is thinking.

[CheezButt]

No idea. Only posted once today at 1:27