Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With the news today that Nelson is probably out until after the ASB, they really need to sign a pitcher. Wouldn't be surprised if Nelson is just a non-factor this year.

 

What news? This is Haudricourt's speculative quote:

 

"The Brewers haven't announced when they expect Nelson to return to the rotation but somewhere around the all-star break in mid-July would appear to be a good possibility."

 

I get that you are trying to make a pessimistic point, but you're still making a bit of a jump.

 

I do agree that they need another pitcher, though.

Why is that pessimistic? Do you have information to the contrary? Is saying he will be back around the ASB unrealistic in any way? If he is back around the ASB are you expecting him to be 2017 Nelson the minute he steps on the hill? If not, how long would it take, a month? Two? By that time the team is either going to be out of it or they will have made a move to get more pitching. It's not a pessimistic point, it's a realistic point. I don't think Haudricourt's report is as nearly speculative as you make it sound. It's not that hard to map out a trajectory that has him back on the mound in games at the ASB.

 

Maybe I'm misreading the level of condescension in your post but I fail to see the pessimism or the jump.

 

Because when you say "news", that typically equals fact. Perhaps the perceived pessimism stems from you saying "after" instead of "around", as well. The truth is, there hasn't been any sort of timeline attached to Nelson for good reason - because his injury is pretty rare for pitchers, so no one really knows how long it's going to take. Haudricourt is speculating. That is not news, it is opinion. A somewhat informed opionion, but still an opinion. But he's already in a throwing program, and Counsell said he's be back on the mound by the start of the regular season. It would stand to reason that, unless he has some sort of significant setback, he should be pitching in games before July.

 

Yes, I'm looking at it overly optimistic. Being a long time Brewers fan, that could be a fool's errand. But it's March. It's the time for optimism.

[82brewcrew82]

Damn I hope this is true about Cobb!! $17.5 mil per, if true.

 

But what kind of source would an NCAA guy have that Heyman, Rosenthal, Morosi doesnt have? That part I'm really confused about.

Say what now?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Joey, why is that every time someone starts talking the reality of the situation they are either pessimistic or frustrated? If this team was serious then they would have built the roster such that Woodruff would be the sixth starter going into the season with the likes of Gallardo/Miley/Suter/Wilkerson providing depth ONLY.

 

I agree with you completely! To be a legit solid playoff contender, at least one staff upgrade is needed. I guess it just kind of bothers me that people feel that if it doesn't happen, the team will automatically be a bottom dweller and deadline seller. I mean, this isn't a "bottom of the barrel" staff as constructed. The sky is far from falling.

[DR28]

Damn I hope this is true about Cobb!! $17.5 mil per, if true.

 

But what kind of source would an NCAA guy have that Heyman, Rosenthal, Morosi doesnt have? That part I'm really confused about.

Say what now?

 

Im confused what you're asking?

[DR28]

This Ted guy has a tweet about Linecum to Rangers as well and about Napoli to Indians.

[adambr2]

Dude doesn't seem very credible. 59 followers?

 

Something to keep an eye on anyway and I'm sure that number will shoot up if he ends up being right.

[82brewcrew82]

Joey, why is that every time someone starts talking the reality of the situation they are either pessimistic or frustrated? If this team was serious then they would have built the roster such that Woodruff would be the sixth starter going into the season with the likes of Gallardo/Miley/Suter/Wilkerson providing depth ONLY.

 

I agree with you completely! To be a legit solid playoff contender, at least one staff upgrade is needed. I guess it just kind of bothers me that people feel that if it doesn't happen, the team will automatically be a bottom dweller and deadline seller. I mean, this isn't a "bottom of the barrel" staff as constructed. The sky is far from falling.

Who said anything about a bottom dweller. I, and most others, think this is a fringe playoff team that could be more with a couple of additions.

[pacopete4]

Phillies have had recent contact with Lynn... Come on guys, lets just get this over with.

 

Lynn to Phillies

Arrieta to Nats or waits til June

Cobb to Brewers

I get a strange feeling that your heart is going to be broken.

 

You think so huh?

 

Hope to be wrong but I just don't know if I see the Brewers adding anyone at this point. Maybe being pessimistic about it but I'm wondering if they'll try to get to the All-Star break and in the mix before adding on a pitcher.

[82brewcrew82]

Hope to be wrong but I just don't know if I see the Brewers adding anyone at this point. Maybe being pessimistic about it but I'm wondering if they'll try to get to the All-Star break and in the mix before adding on a pitcher.

That seems to be what they are signaling. I don't think the FO sees this as a win now season as much as we do.

[reillymcshane]

Folks, I'm asking everyone to stop talking about HighHeat and if he is legitimate or not. It only gets the topic off target - and it seems to cause nothing but arguing. And at this point, he's stated that he's done posting any more information - so there's no need to debate the subject any further.

 

If you believe the guy - fine. If you don't - fine. No matter what happens with Cobb or anyone there will be questions. So let's just drop it.

 

Thank you.

[adambr2]

I think 3/52.5, if if ends up being legit, would be a solid move for an appropriate amount of years.

 

With it being so close to under 50, I wonder if there would be a way to structure it in a way where we could stay under a 50M guarantee and incentivize the extra amount to avoid compensation.

[82brewcrew82]

I think 3/52.5, if if ends up being legit, would be a solid move for an appropriate amount of years.

 

With it being so close to under 50, I wonder if there would be a way to structure it in a way where we could stay under a 50M guarantee and incentivize the extra amount to avoid compensation.

That would be brilliant but I'd guess MLB would clamp down on any attempts to subvert. In either case, I thought I had read where that draft pick wasn't a deal breaker type of issue for them.

[MrTPlush]

I think 3/52.5, if if ends up being legit, would be a solid move for an appropriate amount of years.

 

With it being so close to under 50, I wonder if there would be a way to structure it in a way where we could stay under a 50M guarantee and incentivize the extra amount to avoid compensation.

That would be brilliant but I'd guess MLB would clamp down on any attempts to subvert. In either case, I thought I had read where that draft pick wasn't a deal breaker type of issue for them.

 

I bet you could skirt by and not have MLB stop it. The odds a player gets a QO and then signs for near $50mil is unlikely. MLB can’t really prove you are trying to sneak under unless it’s millions upon millions of easy to get incentives. As long as the player accepts the contract what is there to argue? Teams intentionally do things to avoid vesting options and to me that is much much worse.

 

Would it cause incentives to be included when considering if it is >$50mil in the next CBA, maybe.

[82brewcrew82]

I think 3/52.5, if if ends up being legit, would be a solid move for an appropriate amount of years.

 

With it being so close to under 50, I wonder if there would be a way to structure it in a way where we could stay under a 50M guarantee and incentivize the extra amount to avoid compensation.

That would be brilliant but I'd guess MLB would clamp down on any attempts to subvert. In either case, I thought I had read where that draft pick wasn't a deal breaker type of issue for them.

 

I bet you could skirt by and not have MLB stop it. The odds a player gets a QO and then signs for near $50mil is unlikely. MLB can’t really prove you are trying to sneak under unless it’s millions upon millions of easy to get incentives. As long as the player accepts the contract what is there to argue? Teams intentionally do things to avoid vesting options and to me that is much much worse.

 

Would it cause incentives to be included when considering if it is >$50mil in the next CBA, maybe.

Well sure, that would assume the player is going to sign a contract that would include those incentives and not guaranteed salary. I also have no idea how MLB views incentives in terms of the actual value of the contract. Those may be assumed and part of the total contract.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well sure, that would assume the player is going to sign a contract that would include those incentives and not guaranteed salary. I also have no idea how MLB views incentives in terms of the actual value of the contract. Those may be assumed and part of the total contract.

 

I would say that the way the Giants were able to squeeze in Watson and stay below the luxury tax would be a bigger fish to fry than proving the legitimacy of a $49 million contract. But who knows. A lot of MLB enforcement seems entirely complaint-based. I wouldn't put it past the Cubs to call foul on the Brewers if it got to that point.

[82brewcrew82]

Well sure, that would assume the player is going to sign a contract that would include those incentives and not guaranteed salary. I also have no idea how MLB views incentives in terms of the actual value of the contract. Those may be assumed and part of the total contract.

 

I would say that the way the Giants were able to squeeze in Watson and stay below the luxury tax would be a bigger fish to fry than proving the legitimacy of a $49 million contract. But who knows. A lot of MLB enforcement seems entirely complaint-based. I wouldn't put it past the Cubs to call foul on the Brewers if it got to that point.

The Cubs will have their own luxury tax kabuki to deal with in the near future. I doubt they want anyone to have a reason to be looking for retaliation. Then again, you are right in that the enforcement part is weird so who knows.

[DR28]

So do we think this Ted is legit and on to something?

 

I mean he does have other FA tweets.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So do we think this Ted is legit and on to something?

 

I mean he does have other FA tweets.

 

Cautionary TBD ...

 

If nothing else comes out in the next couple hours, though, I'd say it's crap.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm not bought in but who knows.

[SeaBass]

The way he's worded his tweet it's a done deal. Meaning the much more believable national reporters will pick up on it quickly from their own sources. If we don't hear anything from someone more reliable within 24 hrs I call BS.

[MVP2110]

Agreed. Let's wait and see if anyone reliat picks up on it. And also how much the contract is money and years wise. He put specific numbers out there.

[DR28]

The way he's worded his tweet it's a done deal. Meaning the much more believable national reporters will pick up on it quickly from their own sources. If we don't hear anything from someone more reliable within 24 hrs I call BS.

 

Agreed... He worded the Cobb tweet the same way he worded the Linecum and Napoli tweet.

[Patrick425]

If it's true, I like that it's only 3 years.

[monty57]

Joey, why is that every time someone starts talking the reality of the situation they are either pessimistic or frustrated? If this team was serious then they would have built the roster such that Woodruff would be the sixth starter going into the season with the likes of Gallardo/Miley/Suter/Wilkerson providing depth ONLY.

 

The bolded phrase (if this team was serious) is being thrown around by a number of posters and I don't get it. The Brewers added tens of millions to payroll, including two of the best players in baseball in Yelich and Cain. I think for some, the team won't ever be "serious" enough for them. As soon as one move is made, they won't be "serious" unless they make another.

 

There are free agents available, and there are guys available in trade. Everyone knows this, so if the Brewers do not sign one of them it is because they do not believe that they are worth the price that is being demanded, or because the price is more than the team can afford. It's not because they have decided that they don't want to be "serious" this year.

 

Per Cots, the Brewers are around $91M in projected payroll. Adding someone in the $10-15M range should be affordable for 2018, but what will it do in the future? Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents at the end of the year, and there are 12 guys that will get paid more through arby. That could put the team deep into the red, and it could be the big holdup on adding another salary. It is possible that the inability to make some other trades to shed some future salary could be making the Brewers hesitant about adding another big contract.

 

I would like to see them add Cobb if the price is right, as I think the team would be a lot better with him replacing Suter/Gallardo/Guerra. I am glad that they are likely going to let Woodruff start, as they need to have some rookies on the roster every year so that they will always have pre-arby guys offsetting the bigger salaries on the team. Woodruff has proven himself in the minors and is ready to get his shot. Hopefully he does well. We can't compete for any period of time if we don't let our good prospects get their shot when they're ready.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not bought in but who knows.

 

Plus, the poster that posted the info here has one post. For all we know, that poster is Mr. Rydquist attempting to draw people to his twitter page. That sort of screams shenanigans as well.