Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[MrTPlush]

I don't think Burnes has a shot at the opening day roster, but it has nothing to do with an extra year through arby. The Brewers decided to promote Arcia towards the end of the season costing them a year of control and you are trying to tell me suddenly Burnes has to sit so we can save a little money down the road? Yah, doesn't make sense.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't like intentionally holding a pitcher back in the minor leagues that's definitely ready to contribute at the MLB level solely for picking up an extra year of team control 6 years later, particularly in the case of a pitcher drafted out of college who already has proven to have solid command of his pitches. Pitching health is so fickle - if you've got an arm that's proven ready for the show, they should be in the show.

 

I'm not saying Burnes is 100% ready right now, but if at the end of spring training he's obviously one of the best starting pitcher options on the roster, you'd have to think they'll get him up quickly. That said, we've gotta remember he's not even on the 40 man roster yet, so if they want him up early there will need to be some roster shuffling to make that happen - there are still plenty of guys on the 40 man who I wouldn't mind simply being outrighted so that by no means is a huge hindrance at this point. He shouldn't have a huge innings limit crunch, as he was just under 150IP last season - he could easily take on the #5 role and have starts skipped on occasion to keep him in that 160-175IP range.

[splitterpfj]

Plush, the Brewers didn’t burn a year of control with Arcia, he’s got five years left.

[FVBrewerFan]

Briggs, the Brewers didn’t burn a year of control with Arcia, he’s got five years left.

 

They did, depending on how you look at it. They could have waited until early 2017 to bring him up instead of the end of a lost season in 2016. If they would have done it that way he would have 6 years left.

[pacopete4]

Well, I bet Clancy is happy they burned a year. (blue?)

[DR28]

Alright, so this better be the week we get the Cobb signing with us news!!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Alright, so this better be the week we get the Cobb signing news!!

 

I'd say there's a pretty good chance he signs somewhere this week. But with the way this offseason is dragging along, who knows? It's time for players like Cobb and Lynn to crap or get off the pot. Arrieta too, but with Boras as his agent, who knows what his plan is. Boras might tell him to sit until May, then do some sort of highest bidder auction.

[JohnBriggs12]

Briggs, the Brewers didn’t burn a year of control with Arcia, he’s got five years left.

 

Ah, it wasn't me that said that.

[MadThinker88]

Briggs, the Brewers didn’t burn a year of control with Arcia, he’s got five years left.

 

Ah, it wasn't me that said that.

 

I believe you need the Shaggy video to bring the point home

[brewcrewdue80]

No, you clearly keep him down. There are a number of Starts a #5 wouldn't be used. You're looking at say 10weeks that's maybe 13 starts less the #5 skips. So let's talk 9 starts in 10 weeks. You're really counting on a Rookie pitcher to impact us in the playoff picture in that span? Everyday position player starters will impact much more that that SP. You also have a clock started where he won't make it through the season w/o being in the bullpen or sat for Late September/Playoffs. So now he's at 150+days for 22? starts and some BP innings? You start him 26-28 games he's sitting through the Playoffs or you're putting stress on his arm that could lead to TJ which is even worse then.

And a good SP in Arb will be worth more than 10mil difference as a Super 2 vs just not being. If it's 10mil then he's not the SP we hoped and is a #4 type afterall. You can limit him to 4 or 5IP these first 10 starts in the Minors and extend him #11 and 12 so he's back to 6IP type workload. You then can expect him to be available more for September. If you are doing that at the ML level removing him after 4IP, we are going to have tired bullpens at various times during the season which if he's 1 or 2 games better than our #5 may be negated by that impact to the bullpen.

 

Love to hear Cobb arrives today....fingers crossed

[JohnBriggs12]

Alright, so this better be the week we get the Cobb signing news!!

 

I'd say there's a pretty good chance he signs somewhere this week. But with the way this offseason is dragging along, who knows? It's time for players like Cobb and Lynn to crap or get off the pot. Arrieta too, but with Boras as his agent, who knows what his plan is. Boras might tell him to sit until May, then do some sort of highest bidder auction.

 

It continues to amaze me how willing some players are to surrender their futures to agents. Players need to take control. Analyze where you think you fit in best and direct the agent to make the best possible deal there. The fear of leaving money on the table seems to be way out of whack. i didn't make my career choices strictly on monetary considerations.

[Jopal78]

It continues to amaze me how willing some players are to surrender their futures to agents. Players need to take control. Analyze where you think you fit in best and direct the agent to make the best possible deal there. The fear of leaving money on the table seems to be way out of whack. i didn't make my career choices strictly on monetary considerations.

 

There are two factors in play here. Pro athletes have, relatively speaking, a small window of high earning capacity. Most have little education beyond high school so these contracts are about the money that is going to secure themselves and their families for the rest of their lives. They're not 'surrendering their futures' to their agents, they are trying to secure the highest price they can for their services, and they're willing to play chicken hoping the team breaks and gives them the extra millions of dollars they want.

 

Secondly, free agent contracts are a lot like buying and selling houses. A buyer knows they'd like a 4BR 3BA house in a certain location, and is comfortable spending X amount of dollars to get it. The owner of such a house wants to sell it, but looks around at what other people in his part of town are getting for their houses and it is more than X, so they hold out for more despite the fact that those other houses might have a newer roof or HVAC. Eventually, someone will break and pay more to get the house or the owner will drop the price but both positions can be justified.

[FVBrewerFan]

No, you clearly keep him down. There are a number of Starts a #5 wouldn't be used. You're looking at say 10weeks that's maybe 13 starts less the #5 skips. So let's talk 9 starts in 10 weeks. You're really counting on a Rookie pitcher to impact us in the playoff picture in that span? Everyday position player starters will impact much more that that SP. You also have a clock started where he won't make it through the season w/o being in the bullpen or sat for Late September/Playoffs. So now he's at 150+days for 22? starts and some BP innings? You start him 26-28 games he's sitting through the Playoffs or you're putting stress on his arm that could lead to TJ which is even worse then.

And a good SP in Arb will be worth more than 10mil difference as a Super 2 vs just not being. If it's 10mil then he's not the SP we hoped and is a #4 type afterall. You can limit him to 4 or 5IP these first 10 starts in the Minors and extend him #11 and 12 so he's back to 6IP type workload. You then can expect him to be available more for September. If you are doing that at the ML level removing him after 4IP, we are going to have tired bullpens at various times during the season which if he's 1 or 2 games better than our #5 may be negated by that impact to the bullpen.

 

Love to hear Cobb arrives today....fingers crossed

 

Yes. Look at the dumpster fire starts from the likes of Milone and Guerra last season. If you can get 10 quality starts as opposed to 10 crappy starts, of course that would be a boost to your playoff chances.

 

And there are way to limit his innings. As you already said, his spot would be skipped often enough if they wanted to go that route. He could DL a couple times with "arm fatigue."

 

I get his clock would start sooner, I just don't think they are concerned with that as much as we are here. If they really believe Burnes is ready and a clear better option that Wilkerson, Gallardo, etc. I'm sure they would strongly consider rolling with Burnes. (And I'll add my disclaimer every post about Burnes that yes, I do think there's a very small chance this happens.) Personal thing with me, I just cringe at words like never, always, zero chance.

[brewcrewdue80]

But what's a quality start? If Burnes is averaging 6+IP and under 3ERs a start he is pitching 2 outs more per start than in the minors. Now it's a little hard to believe he does that because expecting him to be a .95 Whip as he was last season vs Major League hitters is setting yourself up for disappointment. So with that said, he's likely not going 6IP. He had 13 of 26 games last year go 6+. I just think there's realistic goals in progression, and starting him #5 from OD is progressing him too fast.

[FVBrewerFan]

No, sorry, by QS I didn't necessarily mean the QS Stat. If he could go 5.1 or 5.2 and give up 2 ER, that's still a QS to me. Very few pitchers avg over 6 innings anymore. And no, I would not expect him to have a .95 WHIP. Finally, I haven't mentioned this yet, but injuries play a role too. If a couple starters or potential starters have arm issues (even if they want to just be conservative and cautious) that changes everything too.

[McRibMcLove]

Gallardo and Miley both have arm issues - their arms suck...

[splitterpfj]

Briggs, the Brewers didn’t burn a year of control with Arcia, he’s got five years left.

 

Ah, it wasn't me that said that.

 

Sorry .... fixed it.

[Jenkins5]

Gallardo and Miley both have arm issues - their arms suck...

 

Never liked Miley but Gallardo I don’t think is completely washed up yet. May not be frontline guy anymore but think the pitching guru Johnson can help him get back on track. As #5 think he could have value there. We will see but hard to believe he has just lost ability to pitch all together.

[TJseven7]

And could be what? A 4.8 garza type?

[DR28]

Like I mentioned before... Twins signing of Morrison takes them out of running for Cobb.

 

It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Good .... good. He just needs to sign that contract that Stearns likely offered him two months ago. His leverage is slowly dwindling.

[wallus]

All of these pitchers seem to be playing musical chairs.

[Warning Track Power]

Like I mentioned before... Twins signing of Morrison takes them out of running for Cobb.

 

It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

This makes me believe that Arrieta is down to Brewers, Nationals and Phillies. Cobb is down to the Brewers and mystery teams.

[82brewcrew82]

So Twins GM says they have their roster and we believe it completely. Stearns says the exact same thing and it's just double talk? Cobb would fit the bill but I just don't see it happening.

[DR28]

So Twins GM says they have their roster and we believe it completely. Stearns says the exact same thing and it's just double talk? Cobb would fit the bill but I just don't see it happening.

 

You dont see us adding Cobb?