Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[pacopete4]

Sir, the possibility of adding Alex Cobb as a free agent is approximately 20%.

 

Never tell me the odds.

Twins- 20%

Phils- 20%

Nats- 20%

Brewers- 20%

Cards- 20%

[pacopete4]

 

No idea... But just curious what was the Twins payroll last year?

 

$108 million is what I found on one site but sport trac had them at $135 million when they added over $20M in disabled list players.

 

But I will say this, $25 million will come off the books after this season with Mauer no matter what. So if the Twins do go to $125, $20 comes off after the year automatically with Mauer after this season.

[DR28]

 

No idea... But just curious what was the Twins payroll last year?

 

$108 million is what I found on one site but sport trac had them at $135 million when they added over $20M in disabled list players.

 

But I will say this, $25 million will come off the books after this season with Mauer no matter what. So if the Twins do go to $125, $20 comes off after the year automatically with Mauer after this season.

 

Got it, thanks!

 

Well, we shall find out this week if HH was full of it or not... I really want Cobb added.

 

If we dont add Cobb, I will be really disappointed... Unless Burnes breaks camp in the rotation, but I highly doubt we have 2 rooks in the rotation.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Burnes

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

No idea... But just curious what was the Twins payroll last year?

 

$108 million is what I found on one site but sport trac had them at $135 million when they added over $20M in disabled list players.

 

But I will say this, $25 million will come off the books after this season with Mauer no matter what. So if the Twins do go to $125, $20 comes off after the year automatically with Mauer after this season.

 

Got it, thanks!

 

Well, we shall find out this week if HH was full of it or not... I really want Cobb added.

 

If we dont add Cobb, I will be really disappointed... Unless Burnes breaks camp in the rotation, but I highly doubt we have 2 rooks in the rotation.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Burnes

 

They aren't going to start Burnes's arby clock unless he's head and shoulders above the other candidates. Something tells be Woodruff won't make the rotation, either. If I were to bet on it, I'd guess that Suter takes one of the final spots, and either Guerra or Gallardo the other. Guerra pitched well in winter ball, so there's a strong chance he's come into camp ready to compete, and will impress, at least until hitters catch up or he gets hurt again. I think we may see a little invigoration from Gallardo as well, as his fastball was a tick up in the second half of last year. Personally, though, I really like the upside Woodruff and Burnes provide, and having them in the rotation would make things much more exciting, albeit with the strong chance of growing pains.

 

I too would love to see Cobb or Arrieta added, as it gives the staff much more legitimacy, but the Brewers seem to be waiting for those guys to accept what they've offered, as I have no doubt they have floated an offer to Cobb and quite possibly Arrieta as well.

[DR28]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

 

Certainly doesn't have a lot of flash. But that screams "Craig Counsell rotation" to me.

 

In a perfect world, the Brewers hold off on signing Cobb for a couple weeks, and Woodruff and Burnes pitch so well in Spring Training and the Brewers are forced to bring them north. Chacin definitely has the stuff to be a dominant set-up guy with his slider if the team finds itself with a surplus of quality rotation candidates.

[NOMAAM]

That uptick was from him moving to the bullpen. He walks way too many people & no longer is able to get away with it with K's & DP's. Doubtful his days as a SP will continue. Bullpen is his future unless he wants to bounce around eating inngs on bad teams.

[McRibMcLove]

If Gallardo is in the starting 5 come April its because all the other options had their arms fall off...

[NOMAAM]

If Gallardo is in the starting 5 come April its because all the other options had their arms fall off...

 

Miley has a better chance of making the rotation than Yo.

[TURBO]

If Gallardo is in the starting 5 come April its because all the other options had their arms fall off...

 

Miley has a better chance of making the rotation than Yo.

 

*shudder*

[TJseven7]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

 

Certainly doesn't have a lot of flash. But that screams "Craig Counsell rotation" to me.

 

In a perfect world, the Brewers hold off on signing Cobb for a couple weeks, and Woodruff and Burnes pitch so well in Spring Training and the Brewers are forced to bring them north. Chacin definitely has the stuff to be a dominant set-up guy with his slider if the team finds itself with a surplus of quality rotation candidates.

 

I fully expect Chacin to pull his swarzak impression out by August this year. Burnes Nelson in the rotation bumps him until we deal Davies in the 18-19 offseason.

 

Cross sports reference but to me cobb would be like adding a top CB or WR... bumping a few guys down 1 peg makes the entire core much much stronger. 1 FA add here and we put the entire pitching staff ahead of the curve. Davies and Knebel are the pieces to move to jack the farm back into the top 8 as time pushes farm pieces into their mlb place.

[LouisEly]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

Did Woodruff and Wilkerson get hurt?

[TJseven7]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

Did Woodruff and Wilkerson get hurt?

 

 

I won't gripe if suter woodruff start... I would rather wilkerson get his shot than gallardo miley guerra get another. If not now, wilkersons the next jungemann... AAA guy who will get released after performing but not on the mlb level.

[DR28]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

Did Woodruff and Wilkerson get hurt?

 

I was going off what Joey Meyer said.

[DR28]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

 

Certainly doesn't have a lot of flash. But that screams "Craig Counsell rotation" to me.

 

In a perfect world, the Brewers hold off on signing Cobb for a couple weeks, and Woodruff and Burnes pitch so well in Spring Training and the Brewers are forced to bring them north. Chacin definitely has the stuff to be a dominant set-up guy with his slider if the team finds itself with a surplus of quality rotation candidates.

 

I fully expect Chacin to pull his swarzak impression out by August this year. Burnes Nelson in the rotation bumps him until we deal Davies in the 18-19 offseason.

 

Cross sports reference but to me cobb would be like adding a top CB or WR... bumping a few guys down 1 peg makes the entire core much much stronger. 1 FA add here and we put the entire pitching staff ahead of the curve. Davies and Knebel are the pieces to move to jack the farm back into the top 8 as time pushes farm pieces into their mlb place.

 

Thank you!!

 

Add Cobb and Ill gladly let Woody and Suter battle for the 5th slot.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff/Suter

[wildcat83]

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Suter

Guerra/Gallardo

 

OMG no, I really hope this doesnt happen.

 

Certainly doesn't have a lot of flash. But that screams "Craig Counsell rotation" to me.

 

In a perfect world, the Brewers hold off on signing Cobb for a couple weeks, and Woodruff and Burnes pitch so well in Spring Training and the Brewers are forced to bring them north. Chacin definitely has the stuff to be a dominant set-up guy with his slider if the team finds itself with a surplus of quality rotation candidates.

 

Wouldn't the Brewers gain a year by keeping Burnes down till June? If so I would think there's zero chance he starts the year in the rotation.

[TJseven7]

"Add Cobb and Ill gladly let Woody and Suter battle for the 5th slot."

 

I'll 1 up that. No competition. Piggy back it. RHP Woody to LHP suter. Don't stress woody 150ip range. Don't use suter as a throw away long man use him as a 90-120 inning eater scheduled long man. Makes the pen 7 man and a joint 5th starter. Theoretically giving the pen a rest day every 5 days through.

[And That]

Wouldn't the Brewers gain a year by keeping Burnes down till June? If so I would think there's zero chance he starts the year in the rotation.

They’d only have to keep him in the minors for about two weeks to gain an extra year of control.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Historically it has been the arbitration rules rather than free agency that kept top prospects in the minors until June; super two players go through the arbitration process one extra time which can be very costly. Burnes only has sixteen starts above A ball so far and isn't on the 40 man roster yet, so I think even without the service time implications, there is not much chance that he'd open in MLB. I would imagine that there are a half dozen guys who would be given chances to fail first. Burnes might well make the rotation in Milwaukee before the end of the season, but if he does I think that means something else has not gone according to plan. (Admittedly, that's often the case with pitching...)

 

Cobb, though...who knows what to think any more. Behind Darvish and Chatwood he's the pitcher I would have hoped for this offseason, but he must have a very different idea of his value than the teams do.

[MadThinker88]

Wouldn't the Brewers gain a year by keeping Burnes down till June? If so I would think there's zero chance he starts the year in the rotation.

They’d only have to keep him in the minors for about two weeks to gain an extra year of control.

 

But keeping him down till June/ mid-June helps to avoid super 2 arbitration.

Like it or not, MKE is a smaller market club and lacks the DEEP pockets of some other clubs like the Cubs/ Dodger/ NY Yankees/ Boston. DS needs to take measured steps/a long term approach in order to help this club remain in any contention window starting in 2018 and going forward.

 

I personally do not see having Burnes up in late April (vs mid-June) moves the contention needle much for 2018. As a rookie making his debut he likely will have to work thru a few issues during his 1st season plus. Its not like he will arrive and suddenly be at Corey Kluber/ Max Scherzer level of play..

[adambr2]

That extra service year is huge. It's definitely worth waiting 2 weeks to gain that. But my question would be, is it worth keeping Burnes down until summer if he can be one of our best starters right now?

 

We are a fringe contender, and having a guy like Burnes up almost a full season versus half a season could make the difference between a playoff spot and sitting home in October. So you have to weigh that against a few million saved by avoiding Super 2.

 

Obviously it is in our best interest to avoid Super 2 when possible. But some guys are worth biting that bullet for. Is Burnes one of them? I don't know. Like I said, some guys are worth it, I don't think anyone is too upset that we have to pay Knebel a little over 3.5M instead of 500K or so a year early.

 

If they wanted to bring Burnes up in late April and start his clock I would have zero problem with it if they believe he belongs in the MLB rotation now. A late April/early May callup could help us with his inning limit this year too.

 

The most important part of that equation is that he would be controlled by the Brewers for nearly a full 7 seasons and 7 potential playoff races.

 

I also don't think it's necessarily true that he couldn't come in and be dominant right away. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to, but Burnes is quite polished and composed and I don't think it's a given that MLB will be a huge adjustment for him. I think Hader is probably less polished than Burnes and he dominated out of the gate, albeit in a pen role. Also, some starters are dominant early on just based on a lack of familiarity and scouting. (Jungmann.)

[TJseven7]

If your definition of dominant is 30 starts around 5.5 ip and sub 4 era... I won't argue. Expecting below 3.5 era is asking a lot of a kid.

 

He could be a stabalizing upgrade to the 5th spot vs what we trotted out last year or vs the guerra gallardo miley wilkerson quad that's possible this year.

 

Just something about the early and decisively stated 8 man pen has me wondering if something interesting is in the works.

 

From the moment I heard that and barnes peralta by june the idea of 4-5 being piggy backed woodruff/suter barnes/chacin (career 3.69 thru 4, 3.56 last year) popped into my head. Full piggy back seems far fetched in the nl but a 7 starter 6 pen stack could work.

[MadThinker88]

That extra service year is huge. It's definitely worth waiting 2 weeks to gain that. But my question would be, is it worth keeping Burnes down until summer if he can be one of our best starters right now?

 

We are a fringe contender, and having a guy like Burnes up almost a full season versus half a season could make the difference between a playoff spot and sitting home in October. So you have to weigh that against a few million saved by avoiding Super 2.

 

Obviously it is in our best interest to avoid Super 2 when possible. But some guys are worth biting that bullet for. Is Burnes one of them? I don't know. Like I said, some guys are worth it, I don't think anyone is too upset that we have to pay Knebel a little over 3.5M instead of 500K or so a year early.

.....

 

The Super 2 cost isn't the extra money paid getting to arbitration a year sooner, its the large cost of getting 4 chances at the arbitration process. I've never seen anyone get less money for the next season after going thru arbitration. Heck there was someone that got a raise (not completely sure of the amount at this time) after missing around 95% of last season.

 

To expand further I'm going to use Trevor Bauer as an example. After a few years of ups & downs, he has finally started putting it together & is performing at a good level (not great All-Star level, but also not as a run of the mill starter). After his 2nd trip thru arbitration Bauer is getting paid over $6.5MM for 2018 & is on path for 2 more trips thru arbitration. My guess is Bauer is likely looking at $11MM to $15MM for that 4th (& extra) year of arbitration assuming his performance level holds or improves.

 

Now Burnes might perform better than Bauer or he might perform worse over multiple years. At this time we don't know how it will shake out. I'm not looking to compare them as pitchers. My point is that extra year of arbitration has a greater impact than $3MM over 1 season (using the Knebel example you noted).

 

Edit: Player getting the arbitration raise after being injured was Shelby Miller. He tossed 22 IP going 2-2 with 4.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.455 & got a 200k raise (from 4.7MM to 4.9MM)..

[adambr2]

That extra service year is huge. It's definitely worth waiting 2 weeks to gain that. But my question would be, is it worth keeping Burnes down until summer if he can be one of our best starters right now?

 

We are a fringe contender, and having a guy like Burnes up almost a full season versus half a season could make the difference between a playoff spot and sitting home in October. So you have to weigh that against a few million saved by avoiding Super 2.

 

Obviously it is in our best interest to avoid Super 2 when possible. But some guys are worth biting that bullet for. Is Burnes one of them? I don't know. Like I said, some guys are worth it, I don't think anyone is too upset that we have to pay Knebel a little over 3.5M instead of 500K or so a year early.

.....

 

The Super 2 cost isn't the extra money paid getting to arbitration a year sooner, its the large cost of getting 4 chances at the arbitration process. I've never seen anyone get less money for the next seen after going thru arbitration. Heck there was someone that got a raise (not completely sure of the amount at this time) after missing around 95% of last season.

 

To expand further I'm going to use Trevor Bauer as an example. After a few years of ups & downs, he has finally started putting it together & is performing at a good level (not great All-Star level, but also not as a run of the mill starter). After his 2nd trip thru arbitration Bauer is getting paid over $6.5MM for 2018 & is on path for 2 more trips thru arbitration. My guess is Bauer is likely looking at $11MM to $15MM for that 4th (& extra) year of arbitration assuming his performance level holds or improves.

 

Now Burnes might perform better than Bauer or he might perform worse over multiple years. At this time we don't know how it will shake out. I'm not looking to compare them as pitchers. My point is that extra year of arbitration has a greater impact than $3MM over 1 season (using the Knebel example you noted).

 

I understand that. So someone like Burnes might make $3M, $5M, $7.5M, and $11M as a Super 2, or 3, 5.5, and 9 as a 3 arby player, just to throw out an example. So you could be talking $10M or so in difference. More, or less, depending on productivity. But if you think he could make a difference in 2018 in contending, it could be worth it versus a price to pay of 2.5M a year or so over 4 years.

 

Course if you really really believe in the guy, you could offer to buy it all out for $20M or so and tack on a couple team options, and then it's a moot point.

 

Even if you end up with a Jon Singleton situation, it's not going to hurt you much. But that's a whole other discussion itself.

[MadThinker88]

And this is where we disagree/debate. We are discussing a move difference of 8 weeks (mid-April call up vs mid-June call up).

 

I think Burnes will in time be a fine pitcher. I do not see him as the impact changer/ needle mover in 2018. The lessons he will learn/ absorb this season (taking some lumps along the way) will result in a much better pitcher in 2019/ 2020/ and so forth.

 

So for some rough math: is 8 more weeks of service time in 2018 worth and extra $10MM+ down the road?

I don't believe it is. You may feel differently.

 

I think so long as injuries can be avoided, DS has brought in a number of depth guys that can be cycled thru in case 1 or more guys is not performing well enough during the first few months of the season. Its the great thing about baseball - So many games are played that a poor start/ bad stretch can be dealt with and in some cases overcome. GMs earn their stripes by building not just 25 man rosters, but building 40 man rosters & assorted other players to be called upon in times of need.