Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[Brewer Fever]

Just because it's a fan's take doesn't make it wrong either. Just because DS doesn't come out and publicly bash his rotation, which is a silly notion to even suggest, doesn't mean it isn't true. This notion that someone said it was a bad thing that we had too many good players is a stawman, nobody said that. What has been said is that the roster is poorly constructed and overbalanced to the offense, which is true. You can be a good fan and still see the flaws in the team.

 

Yeah and some fans also understand that you don't wildly squander assets to fix a temporary problem. Just because we have 4 starting caliber OFs, doesn't mean we should sell one at a huge discount. If the opportunity to move an excess piece to fill a position of weakness isn't currently available, you forge on and keep looking. Forcing yourself to take what you can get or putting deadlines on making moves is a surefire way to squander assets. This whole oft-repeated mentality of "do something, fix this now" is tiresome and irresponsible.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So he should panic and trade OFs for less than they're worth, and sign SP for more than they're worth? It's not "misplaying his hand" to look beyond 2018.

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he should "panic". As much as it pains me to justify Briggs's longtime argument, look at the Scooter Gennett situation last year. I would say the team overplayed it hand there, and ended up dumping a useful player that ended up getting snapped up by a division rival and having a career year. I think fans are worried that the situation may play out again this year with the glut of OF and 1B candidates. No one is against looking past 2018, but none of us want to see them give away assets again due to roster mismanagement, either.

[FVBrewerFan]

So he should panic and trade OFs for less than they're worth, and sign SP for more than they're worth? It's not "misplaying his hand" to look beyond 2018.

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he should "panic". As much as it pains me to justify Briggs's longtime argument, look at the Scooter Gennett situation last year. I would say the team overplayed it hand there, and ended up dumping a useful player that ended up getting snapped up by a division rival and having a career year. I think fans are worried that the situation may play out again this year with the glut of OF and 1B candidates. No one is against looking past 2018, but none of us want to see them give away assets again due to roster mismanagement, either.

 

That will happen, you can't avoid losing quality players. It's a function of getting better at the MiLB and MLB levels. Who are they giving away this year anyhow? Maybe Aguilar?

[82brewcrew82]

Just because it's a fan's take doesn't make it wrong either. Just because DS doesn't come out and publicly bash his rotation, which is a silly notion to even suggest, doesn't mean it isn't true. This notion that someone said it was a bad thing that we had too many good players is a stawman, nobody said that. What has been said is that the roster is poorly constructed and overbalanced to the offense, which is true. You can be a good fan and still see the flaws in the team.

 

Yeah and some fans also understand that you don't wildly squander assets to fix a temporary problem. Just because we have 4 starting caliber OFs, doesn't mean we should sell one at a huge discount. If the opportunity to move an excess piece to fill a position of weakness isn't currently available, you forge on and keep looking. Forcing yourself to take what you can get or putting deadlines on making moves is a surefire way to squander assets. This whole oft-repeated mentality of "do something, fix this now" is tiresome and irresponsible.

I don't know what you're responding to because I didn't make any of those suggestions. In fact, you are pretty dead on accurate. Still doesn't mean the roster isn't poorly constructed though.

[Roderick]

I think DS knows his playoff chances are better with either Cobb or Arrieta are in the rotation. but I also believe he will not throw money away either.

 

Yeah, you could sign Arrietta to his demands and our playoff chances have increased for this year. But our playoff chances have more than likely decreased for 2020 and 2021.

 

Why do you say this?

 

Because history has shown that usually a 32 year old player is not performing up to his pay on the back end of a high paying four year free agent contract.

 

And the longer you wait and the more opportunities given, the better your chances are of finding someone in house that can pitch just as good as Arrieta will be in 2020 and 2021 at a much cheaper price.

 

Thus allowing those funds to be saved and used for the last piece we need to push us to a playoff contender in those years.

 

I'm just using the percentages and talking about Arrietta money now.

 

Now, maybe the playoff chances for 2018 and 2019 are more important to DS and he goes for Arrieta. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

 

If we are talking 4 years $96M for Arreita and 3 years $48M for Cobb. Give me Cobb.

If it is between Cobb and 2 years of Lynn at $26M, give me Lynn.

[Boomer5]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

[82brewcrew82]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[Brewer Fever]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

 

That's wildly myopic. You acquire key assets when they are available. This is not a 1 year window.

 

They may add a SP before opening day. They may add one at the deadline. They may add one next year. Regardless of when a SP is added, it has no bearing on whether or not the Cain and Yelich additions improved this team.

[82brewcrew82]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

 

That's wildly myopic. You acquire key assets when they are available. This is not a 1 year window.

 

They may add a SP before opening day. They may add one at the deadline. They may add one next year. Regardless of when a SP is added, it has no bearing on whether or not the Cain and Yelich additions improved this team.

So would adding one of the available starting pitchers not be adding a key asset?

[paul253]

Someone said it earlier and I’ll repeat. The roster doesn’t make a lot of sense right now. They have four starting outfielders. Fair enough. You can maybe move one to first part time. But they also already have a pretty good platoon at first and now half of that platoon has nowhere to go. Meanwhile they appear to be going quantity over quality in the rotation even though there some decent quality still available. I have to believe when Stearns signed Cain he thought he could move Santana for a starter. Perhaps this is a lesson learned. Don’t make move 2 before you make move 1???

 

I just hope the plan isn’t to just outhit everyone and win with offense because that generally doesn’t work. I’m very worried about the rotation.

[Brewer Fever]

I appreciate the tidbits HH19 dropped earlier this offseason. The worst thing that happened though was saying the Brewers have decided to "go for it" in 2018. It has destroyed the ability to maintain a long-term view for many here. I suspect HH19 mischaracterized what Stearns and Co. actually decided. It's clear they merely shifted focus into acquiring long-term major league pieces as opposed to focusing solely on stocking the minor league system. That doesn't necessarily mean "win now". It means acquire major league pieces as opportunities present themselves and the winning will come soon enough. Leave no holes in 2018 could very well have happened (and still might) but not every opportunity to address weaknesses at an acceptable cost came to fruition. Stay the course, and eventually the right opportunities will be seized. Win now (2011) is how 2012-2016 happened.

[Brewer Fever]

So would adding one of the available starting pitchers not be adding a key asset?

 

Depends entirely on the cost. If the cost is severely inflated versus the gain in production over alternatives, then the answer is NO. You also have to consider any money spent on a Cobb, Arrieta, or Lynn is money they don't have to spend elsewhere. If these guys are still asking for money not worth their expected impact, then you're better off practicing a little patience and spending assets more wisely later. This really isn't that difficult conceptually. It's merely a matter of self-restraint.

[Brewer Fever]

It's clear the Brewers are willing to spend significant assets, perhaps even overpay, if they believe the player they are acquiring is going to make a significant impact. They spent major capital acquiring Yelich and Cain. The fact they have set a price they're unwilling to exceed on the remaining free agent pitchers makes it clear as day that they have doubts about just how much impact these guys would make. That's very easy to grasp since these players' warts are well known to all.

[Boomer5]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

 

That's wildly myopic. You acquire key assets when they are available. This is not a 1 year window.

 

They may add a SP before opening day. They may add one at the deadline. They may add one next year. Regardless of when a SP is added, it has no bearing on whether or not the Cain and Yelich additions improved this team.

 

To say that Stearns is just adding random pieces when he can is fine if they aren't 32 years old and cost you $80 Million and a draft pick.

 

No, the Cain addition was not just a guy we added in a vacuum because they got some amazing deal. We overpaid because he is to be a headliner for a team that is supposed to contend for a WS in the next 2 to 3 years max.

[Brewer Fever]

To say that Stearns is just adding random pieces when he can is fine if they aren't 32 years old and cost you $80 Million and a draft pick.

 

No, the Cain addition was not just a guy we added in a vacuum because they got some amazing deal. We overpaid because he is to be a headliner for a team that is supposed to contend for a WS in the next 2 to 3 years max.

 

Last time I checked, players don't have to be acquired by March 7th 2018 to be playoff eligible in 2019 or 2020. Just going off the playoff window you just declared with the Cain signing.

[Boomer5]

To say that Stearns is just adding random pieces when he can is fine if they aren't 32 years old and cost you $80 Million and a draft pick.

 

No, the Cain addition was not just a guy we added in a vacuum because they got some amazing deal. We overpaid because he is to be a headliner for a team that is supposed to contend for a WS in the next 2 to 3 years max.

 

Last time I checked, players don't have to be acquired by March 7th 2018 to be playoff eligible in 2019 or 2020. Just going off the playoff window you just declared with the Cain signing.

 

I'm not sure who you are arguing with but it isn't me. I have said over and over again that we will be adding to the team.

[tmwiese55]

I've heard this repeated for years but I've never really felt not having Cain, Odorizzi, Jeffress, Escobar, and Lawrie would have made any significant difference in end results in 12-16. Cain obviously has been good but we had Gomez Braun Hart Aoki already. Escobar was replaced by Segura and Escobar has just been a good D player, nothing special overall. Odorizzi has been an adequate P but by no means a much ballyhooed 'needle mover'. Jeffress flopped and Lawrie flopped. That's how simply I look at it. This team has been hurt for 15 years (heck probably 30 years) on horrible pitcher drafting and development, that's the crux of it all. And if you'd have not gone for it you'd have wasted the prime of having two MVP level hitters at the same time. You had a 1-0 lead in the NLCS with home field advantage in the NLCS and WS. It worked, they just didn't execute it on the field.

[TJseven7]

You’re telling me you think a rotation of those 2 who could get hurt plus a mediocre at best Chacin, completely unproven Woodruff and Wilkerson, guys who had terrible 5+ ERA seasons last year in Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, and a guy who had a great season last year but is probably better for long relief and also can’t go very deep into games in Suter? Stearns thinks those rotation options can get to the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Burnes won’t be available til mid season at the earliest according to Counsell but there is a need for a good starter right now, not midseason.

 

Pretty much any pitcher is an injury risk, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn included. And looking at most of Chacin's career, including last year, indicates that he is better than "mediocre at best". It's likely that the team is going to use 9-10 starters at least this year, so building depth is not a bad thing. Unfortunately the Brewers are likely never going to be in the position to have a big-money starter in every spot in the rotation. But if they could sign Arrieta or Cobb, I feel that their 1-4 of Arrieta/Cobb, Anderson, Davies and Chacin has the potential to match up with pretty well with any other team's 1-4.

 

But I mean, if this is the realistic expectation you have for the current rotation, signing Cobb or Arrieta isn't going to make too much difference, because what you are saying is they'd be surrounding Arrieta or Cobb with injury-prone crap.

 

Chacin isn’t anything special, sorry. That’s why they got him at such a cheap contract. He’s a good bottom of the rotation option for a good team but shouldn’t be in the top 3. He did not pitch well in 2014 and 2016 at all. I’d be happy if he was the #5 starter.

 

Anderson or Davies could get hurt as could anyone but if Anderson or Davies gets hurt isn’t it better to have to rely on Cobb or Arrieta than it would be to rely on Miley, Gallardo or Guerra, if you’re trying to actually make the playoffs that is?

 

We have 2 chacins instead of the crap we pitched last year and this is easily a 90 win team. Solid pieces don't cost you games.

[MrTPlush]

The fact they have set a price they're unwilling to exceed on the remaining free agent pitchers makes it clear as day that they have doubts about just how much impact these guys would make.

 

I wouldn't say that until these players sign. They could easily bump there price up tomorrow and Cobb will be a Brewer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The fact they have set a price they're unwilling to exceed on the remaining free agent pitchers makes it clear as day that they have doubts about just how much impact these guys would make.

 

I wouldn't say that until these players sign. They could easily bump there price up tomorrow and Cobb will be a Brewer.

 

Or Cobb could just as easily decide to get this crap over with, and accept the decent offer that I suspect the Brewers have already made to him and be a Brewer.

[MrTPlush]

The fact they have set a price they're unwilling to exceed on the remaining free agent pitchers makes it clear as day that they have doubts about just how much impact these guys would make.

 

I wouldn't say that until these players sign. They could easily bump there price up tomorrow and Cobb will be a Brewer.

 

Or Cobb could just as easily decide to get this crap over with, and accept the decent offer that I suspect the Brewers have already made to him and be a Brewer.

 

Totally, that is the mystery. I just wouldn't assume we have set our price on all these pitchers and won't make an "overpay" suddenly. We could still be in the cat and mouse stage where we are trying to get a deal or below what we think their impact is worth. Maybe we think Cobb is worth 4/$65mil, but of course we would love to pay less. End of spring training maybe that isn't possible and it goes up.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have zero sources but I find it is inconceivable that they don't end up with on of the 3 pitchers. We can find something to occupy our time until then.

 

They absolutely would not have picked up those outfielders otherwise.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

 

Why? Seems like he's using the word exactly as he intends.