Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[Boomer5]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

 

Stearns stuck us with a heck of a rotation last year. Hopefully he won't do the same this year. Thank goodness we have DJ.

[And That]

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

And it was really over when Guerra was DL'd after his first start.

[DR28]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

 

 

Nothing, I didnt follow the board much last offseason.

[Warning Track Power]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

[And That]

Stearns stuck us with a heck of a rotation last year.

At what point does "stuck us with" actually mean "worked with the pitching coach to acquire guys that he thinks he can work with to make better"?

 

Because that's what happened last year.

[DR28]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

 

Exactly, thank you!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

 

Bingo. Expectations were not that high last year, and they were exceeded immensely. However, because of that, they are much higher this year. I'm willing to give Stearns the benefit of the doubt that he can get the roster sorted out and squared away, but time is beginning to run out. I already fear its too late to trade Santana, which was the move I was hoping for. Now it's going to have to be minor moves and shrewd free agent signings to figure out the opening day roster.

[82brewcrew82]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

Great post.

[TJH123]

Nelson is already hurt for 1/3 of this season, and he was a big part of the reason we even contended last year. Anderson was spectacular last year but I’m still not convinced he can replicate that performance because he has never had a season as good as last year. Davies had a great year but he could also fall off a bit. Anderson and Davies also could get hurt as evidenced by this oblique issue Davies already has before the season has even started.

 

You’re telling me you think a rotation of those 2 who could get hurt plus a mediocre at best Chacin, completely unproven Woodruff and Wilkerson, guys who had terrible 5+ ERA seasons last year in Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, and a guy who had a great season last year but is probably better for long relief and also can’t go very deep into games in Suter? Stearns thinks those rotation options can get to the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Burnes won’t be available til mid season at the earliest according to Counsell but there is a need for a good starter right now, not midseason.

 

Some people are saying that this is only year 1 of a 5 year window we have opened up for success so who cares if we don’t go all in and sign a TOR arm this offseason, but my question is why would we waste 1 year when it’s clear that teams like the Brewers will always have limited windows for success? Why not go all in for real and make the most of those 5 years instead of giving all that money to Cain whose best years out of his 5 year deal will most likely be this year and next year, 1 of which could easily be wasted this year by this very unproven and mediocre looking rotation?

 

I really hope Stearns is just posturing and will sign 1 or both of Cobb and Arrieta because we need a guy like 1 of those 2 to even have a chance at the playoffs imo. A trade is also an option but you can sign one of those 2 without giving up prospects.

[82brewcrew82]

Stearns stuck us with a heck of a rotation last year.

At what point does "stuck us with" actually mean "worked with the pitching coach to acquire guys that he thinks he can work with to make better"?

 

Because that's what happened last year.

I think he needs to duplicate the success this year. One year can be a fluke and frankly he has had failures like Peralta. IF the pitchers that stepped up last year can sustain and others take a big step forward, then I'll buy in.

[pacopete4]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

Fans expectations may have changed but Stearns and Co probably have a very different idea of what those expectations are. It is why we are fans, and they are in the positions that they are in. Do we have a glut in the OF? Sure. But that isn't a bad thing. It keeps being written as if it is such a bad thing to have too many good players. And a "dearth" of SP is not how Stearns and co. would describe it either. Again, that is a fan's take because we haven't signed a big free agent this offseason.

[And That]

smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP

Yikes. You might want to rephrase that.

[Warning Track Power]

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

Fans expectations may have changed but Stearns and Co probably have a very different idea of what those expectations are. It is why we are fans, and they are in the positions that they are in. Do we have a glut in the OF? Sure. But that isn't a bad thing. It keeps being written as if it is such a bad thing to have too many good players. And a "dearth" of SP is not how Stearns and co. would describe it either. Again, that is a fan's take because we haven't signed a big free agent this offseason.

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You’re telling me you think a rotation of those 2 who could get hurt plus a mediocre at best Chacin, completely unproven Woodruff and Wilkerson, guys who had terrible 5+ ERA seasons last year in Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, and a guy who had a great season last year but is probably better for long relief and also can’t go very deep into games in Suter? Stearns thinks those rotation options can get to the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Burnes won’t be available til mid season at the earliest according to Counsell but there is a need for a good starter right now, not midseason.

 

Pretty much any pitcher is an injury risk, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn included. And looking at most of Chacin's career, including last year, indicates that he is better than "mediocre at best". It's likely that the team is going to use 9-10 starters at least this year, so building depth is not a bad thing. Unfortunately the Brewers are likely never going to be in the position to have a big-money starter in every spot in the rotation. But if they could sign Arrieta or Cobb, I feel that their 1-4 of Arrieta/Cobb, Anderson, Davies and Chacin has the potential to match up with pretty well with any other team's 1-4.

 

But I mean, if this is the realistic expectation you have for the current rotation, signing Cobb or Arrieta isn't going to make too much difference, because what you are saying is they'd be surrounding Arrieta or Cobb with injury-prone crap.

[pacopete4]

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

More than likely you weren't going to replace Nelson's 2017 innings with Nelson's 2018 innings anyways (I believe he pitched over his head). And if there is such a dearth of starting pitching then they better hold off on wasting money on Cobb/Arrieta because it wouldn't make much of a difference then anyways. I still see a strong chance they get Cobb. I'm just arguing back that this roster is not in shambles as many try to make it out to be. We are in a very good place as an organization. It is a great time to be a Brewers fan which cannot always be said.

[Warning Track Power]

smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP

Yikes. You might want to rephrase that.

I will leave it for reference but clarify that I meant Brewer fans who understand the difference between the small markets and large markets, meaning the Brewers do not have the financial resources to spend their way out of roster problems like the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs.

 

No snark was intended with "smart."

[Warning Track Power]

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

More than likely you weren't going to replace Nelson's 2017 innings with Nelson's 2018 innings anyways (I believe he pitched over his head). And if there is such a dearth of starting pitching then they better hold off on wasting money on Cobb/Arrieta because it wouldn't make much of a difference then anyways. I still see a strong chance they get Cobb. I'm just arguing back that this roster is not in shambles as many try to make it out to be. We are in a very good place as an organization. It is a great time to be a Brewers fan which cannot always be said.

I agree with you that the roster is deep and strong in certain areas and it truly is a wonderful time to be a Brewer fan, as I believe the window is just opening. The issue remains that I would bet the Brewers are more likely to win 80 games than 90 and that is mostly due to the pitching staff. I worry the 2018 Brewers will look eerily similar to the 2010 Brewers, where the lineup had some absolute studs but still won 77 games due to the pitching staff.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

More than likely you weren't going to replace Nelson's 2017 innings with Nelson's 2018 innings anyways (I believe he pitched over his head). And if there is such a dearth of starting pitching then they better hold off on wasting money on Cobb/Arrieta because it wouldn't make much of a difference then anyways. I still see a strong chance they get Cobb. I'm just arguing back that this roster is not in shambles as many try to make it out to be. We are in a very good place as an organization. It is a great time to be a Brewers fan which cannot always be said.

 

Just the fact that the biggest arguments are whether to sign another talent pitcher to add to a talented rotation, or how we are going to clear the roster of too many talented players for the positions available is a wonderful position to be in. Not too many years ago, guys like Rafael Roque were making Opening Day starts for this team. It's come a long long way, and the future looks bright.

 

But we are all baseball fans, and this is the kind of crap that baseball fans argue about in March

[pacopete4]

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

More than likely you weren't going to replace Nelson's 2017 innings with Nelson's 2018 innings anyways (I believe he pitched over his head). And if there is such a dearth of starting pitching then they better hold off on wasting money on Cobb/Arrieta because it wouldn't make much of a difference then anyways. I still see a strong chance they get Cobb. I'm just arguing back that this roster is not in shambles as many try to make it out to be. We are in a very good place as an organization. It is a great time to be a Brewers fan which cannot always be said.

I agree with you that the roster is deep and strong in certain areas and it truly is a wonderful time to be a Brewer fan, as I believe the window is just opening. The issue remains that I would bet the Brewers are more likely to win 80 games than 90 and that is mostly due to the pitching staff. I worry the 2018 Brewers will look eerily similar to the 2010 Brewers, where the lineup had some absolute studs but still won 77 games due to the pitching staff.

Yes, I believe this could very well be true. They will need to catch some breaks with some players to reach that 90 wins but I'm not sure adding Cobb really pushed us much further towards that 90 win marker. Does it make it more probable, sure it does. But I'm not sure it makes it a heck of a lot more likely. That's the problem I have with spending on a free agent right now. I think standing pat, seeing what you have out of the mix of guys and Nelson when he returns and then possibly younger guys like a Burnes might be the best route. And if this isn't the mix, then trades and signings must occur for next years team. I don't want to close that window faster than it has to just because we are impatient with the process.

[pacopete4]

Sal Bando or Dean Taylor would even recognize that you cannot replace what Nelson did in 2017 with Miley/Guerra/Gallardo. I don't believe anyone is clamoring for Arrieta or Cobb specifically, rather they are giving an honest assessment of this roster's chances when Nelson's 2017 innings are being filled by that Big 3.

More than likely you weren't going to replace Nelson's 2017 innings with Nelson's 2018 innings anyways (I believe he pitched over his head). And if there is such a dearth of starting pitching then they better hold off on wasting money on Cobb/Arrieta because it wouldn't make much of a difference then anyways. I still see a strong chance they get Cobb. I'm just arguing back that this roster is not in shambles as many try to make it out to be. We are in a very good place as an organization. It is a great time to be a Brewers fan which cannot always be said.

 

Just the fact that the biggest arguments are whether to sign another talent pitcher to add to a talented rotation, or how we are going to clear the roster of too many talented players for the positions available is a wonderful position to be in. Not too many years ago, guys like Rafael Roque were making Opening Day starts for this team. It's come a long long way, and the future looks bright.

 

But we are all baseball fans, and this is the kind of crap that baseball fans argue about in March

Cheers to that!

[TJH123]

You’re telling me you think a rotation of those 2 who could get hurt plus a mediocre at best Chacin, completely unproven Woodruff and Wilkerson, guys who had terrible 5+ ERA seasons last year in Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, and a guy who had a great season last year but is probably better for long relief and also can’t go very deep into games in Suter? Stearns thinks those rotation options can get to the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Burnes won’t be available til mid season at the earliest according to Counsell but there is a need for a good starter right now, not midseason.

 

Pretty much any pitcher is an injury risk, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn included. And looking at most of Chacin's career, including last year, indicates that he is better than "mediocre at best". It's likely that the team is going to use 9-10 starters at least this year, so building depth is not a bad thing. Unfortunately the Brewers are likely never going to be in the position to have a big-money starter in every spot in the rotation. But if they could sign Arrieta or Cobb, I feel that their 1-4 of Arrieta/Cobb, Anderson, Davies and Chacin has the potential to match up with pretty well with any other team's 1-4.

 

But I mean, if this is the realistic expectation you have for the current rotation, signing Cobb or Arrieta isn't going to make too much difference, because what you are saying is they'd be surrounding Arrieta or Cobb with injury-prone crap.

 

Chacin isn’t anything special, sorry. That’s why they got him at such a cheap contract. He’s a good bottom of the rotation option for a good team but shouldn’t be in the top 3. He did not pitch well in 2014 and 2016 at all. I’d be happy if he was the #5 starter.

 

Anderson or Davies could get hurt as could anyone but if Anderson or Davies gets hurt isn’t it better to have to rely on Cobb or Arrieta than it would be to rely on Miley, Gallardo or Guerra, if you’re trying to actually make the playoffs that is?

[Brewer Fever]

Some of you are really coming off as "if Stearns doesn't do things the way I want, then there's no chance the Brewers will compete this year". You'll just never be taken seriously as a poster conveying your message like that.

 

One thing to consider. Aside from elite, game changing players, of which there are few, sports are played by collections of athletes who produce results with very little discernible difference from one another from year to year. Player A may have an outlier year for him that leads to a couple more wins than player B provides. And then the next year, the two switch places in terms of impact. Unless you're acquiring an elite, game changing player, there's no need to forego patience and throw wild sums of money on players whose impact won't be much more than you might get from a street free agent or a young player at a fraction the cost. Stearns acquired two OFs this offseason who make a measurable impact in multiple facets of the game. He has obviously made attempts to add difference making pitchers but the price was too high. You don't then just desperately go after B-level guys at inflated prices just to fill a hole. That's a surefire way to close windows of opportunity at a later time when a difference maker is acquirable.

 

When it comes to any player who isn't a blue-chipper, sometimes the biggest difference making factor is your coaching staff and scouting. Taking a low cost castoff and making tweeks as opposed to overpaying a second level guy who won't make much difference. Stearns has alluded to this when talking about not just making a move for the sake of making one. If you're going to spend, it better be for a needle-mover, a difference maker. With those 2nd tier guys, you very well could see a reclamation project on a 1-year deal outproduce a guy who signs a 4 year deal at $15 mil per.

 

I see constant doubts raised here about the big names (Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn). Arrieta is losing velocity. Cobb isn't the same since he lost his changeup. Lynn is leaving the St. Louis program, etc. Yet despite those warts, everyone is up in arms that one hasn't been signed. You have to determine a price when delving into free agency, especially for players who are dependent on some reversal from recent decline or struggles. And if the player is asking for more than the price you've set, you save the money or assets for someone who who comes available later.

 

Bottom line, you have to be capable of patience or over time you will squander too many assets, payroll, or both. In a small market, fans should never be screaming "just get it done" because our GM sure can't operate that way.

[MrTPlush]

The biggest part to adding another SP is to have a proven guy we know will lock down one of our top 3 spots. Sure it might push a worthy candidate out, but they will get their chance when someone flops or gets injured(which WILL happen). Hopefully that guy steps in and performs. That will be huge and could be responsible for many more wins.

 

We have a lot of depth, but it is pretty high risk depth for fairly unstable rotation spot holders(as things stand today). That is a recipe for disaster.

 

I’m a supporter of Cobb for sure and possibly Arrieta because you know they will lock down a spot. Even Lynn could be a great addition...though a little more risk there.

[82brewcrew82]

Fans expectations may have changed but Stearns and Co probably have a very different idea of what those expectations are. It is why we are fans, and they are in the positions that they are in. Do we have a glut in the OF? Sure. But that isn't a bad thing. It keeps being written as if it is such a bad thing to have too many good players. And a "dearth" of SP is not how Stearns and co. would describe it either. Again, that is a fan's take because we haven't signed a big free agent this offseason.

Just because it's a fan's take doesn't make it wrong either. Just because DS doesn't come out and publicly bash his rotation, which is a silly notion to even suggest, doesn't mean it isn't true. This notion that someone said it was a bad thing that we had too many good players is a stawman, nobody said that. What has been said is that the roster is poorly constructed and overbalanced to the offense, which is true. You can be a good fan and still see the flaws in the team.

[FVBrewerFan]

We'll be out of the WC race way before September then.

 

Such a shame with the Offense we're gonna have.

What did you say a year ago when they entered the 2017 season with:

 

1. Guerra

2. Peralta

3. Nelson

4. Davies

5. Anderson

DL- Garza

I understand your point but the Brewers in 2017 hadn't just traded 3 top ten prospects for Christian Yelich, nor had they invested $80 million in Lorenzo Cain. Those moves, combined with the success of 2017, have drastically changed fans expectations and smart fans recognize a glut of talented OF and a dearth of talented SP. This roster is oddly constructed and while I trust Stearns and think he has done an amazing job as GM, I think he may have misplayed his hand in regard to the OF and SP.

 

 

So he should panic and trade OFs for less than they're worth, and sign SP for more than they're worth? It's not "misplaying his hand" to look beyond 2018.