Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[Montezuma]

It'd be nice for both cobb and arrieta to sign with anyone at this point so these two threads can be put out of their misery

 

Best post in the past 3 days...

[BillScottCanRake]

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/932/745/9cc.gif

[LouisEly]

How can anyone say for certain a particular player is going to sign a contract 4 weeks from now? I thought HighHeat said Cobb was going to sign like 2 Monday's ago and the Brewers 100% were going to sign him. How did that work out?

 

Yeah, kind of a crazy thought. I suppose it's possible that Cobb has conditionally accepted an offer, but is waiting to see if there are any big-name pitching injuries that would increase his market. But not a lot in this offseason has made sense, so I guess this is just throwing another odd log on fire.

 

This would be one of the craziest conditions for a possible contract that I can think of. I know you're just thinking of scenarios but I really hope Stearns and co. are not doing this. Either he wants to be with us or against us at some point here. Piss or get off the pot already.

I don't think it's that crazy. We know Stearns sets a value on players and sticks to it. Cobb could feel good about the Brewers (legit chance to compete the next 3-4 years, good young nucleus, heard good things about Counsell, etc.) but not about the offer (less than what he wants). Could easily be Stearns saying this is what the offer is, it will not increase, it's good until March __ and then it expires because we need a pitcher to be ready to go when we need a 5th starter. Cobb could respond by saying if I don't have a better offer by March __ I'll sign; however, better offer may not be defined just by money but by chance to compete, not having to deal with media circus (NY, BOS, etc.), etc. Who knows what tradeoffs Cobb is willing to make, but there could very well be tradeoffs with the Brewers' offer, thus the hesitation.

 

Also, Braun has publicly stated that he hates spring training. Cobb might too, and feel that the free agent "training camp" is working for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Also, Braun has publicly stated that he hates spring training. Cobb might too, and feel that the free agent "training camp" is working for him.

 

It's semantics, I know, but I'm 99.9% sure that I read that the top pitchers are not at the IMG Academy training camp. That includes Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn.

[Roderick]

 

Also, Braun has publicly stated that he hates spring training. Cobb might too, and feel that the free agent "training camp" is working for him.

 

For you old timers, it seemed like Ken Ruettgers held out every other year for the Packers, partially to try to get more money, but also so he could skip training camp.

[A Swing and A Drive]

If Stearns plans on going into the season with the current roster (i.e. Miley) I think a thread needs to be started "ARE WE OVERRATING DAVID STEARNS?"

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/brewers-trade-rumors-keon-broxton-neil-walker-free-agents.html

 

From MLBTRADERUMORS:

 

Nonetheless, Stearns plainly stated that he “[anticipates] that we go into the season with the current group we have.” The GM also indicated, without delving into specific names, that the Brewers’ rumored interest in some free agents was overstated this offseason, stating that there was a “higher percentage” than usual of rumors that made him “scratch [his] head a little bit and wonder where that came from.”

[monty57]

Also, Braun has publicly stated that he hates spring training. Cobb might too, and feel that the free agent "training camp" is working for him.

 

It's semantics, I know, but I'm 99.9% sure that I read that the top pitchers are not at the IMG Academy training camp. That includes Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn.

 

It might make sense for them to skip the camp, because it would be pretty easy for them to get injured there while not under contract, leaving them unemployed until they're healthy. Conversely, not going to the camp means that the longer they wait, the longer it will take before they are ready to make their first start. A healthy pitcher makes around 30 starts in a season, so if they miss spring training, they may miss 3-4 starts before they're ready to go, or roughly 10% of their season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Stearns plans on going into the season with the current roster (i.e. Miley) I think a thread needs to be started "ARE WE OVERRATING DAVID STEARNS?"

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/brewers-trade-rumors-keon-broxton-neil-walker-free-agents.html

 

From MLBTRADERUMORS:

 

Nonetheless, Stearns plainly stated that he “[anticipates] that we go into the season with the current group we have.” The GM also indicated, without delving into specific names, that the Brewers’ rumored interest in some free agents was overstated this offseason, stating that there was a “higher percentage” than usual of rumors that made him “scratch [his] head a little bit and wonder where that came from.”

 

I totally get that sentiment. At this point, he's betting on his coaching staff to be able to pull several "career year"-type performances out of guys that either have never been effective, or are several seasons removed from being effective. I think when "Brewers Christmas" happened on January 25, the majority of fans, myself included, expected the team to follow up the fortification of the outfield with additional moves that would fortify them with contender status. However, other than a few depth moves like Albers, it hasn't happened. And they sit now with a logjam in the outfield and at 1B, with arguably poor starting pitching depth. I get that it takes two to tango regarding trades to clear the logjam, but to go into what should be a contending season banking on guys like Guerra, Miley and Gallardo to rebound, while obvious upgrades like Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn, and even marginal upgrades like Lackey and Cahill are still sitting on the open market, would appear irresponsible.

 

As a Packer fan that has dealt with 12 years of Ted Thompson running the Packers that way, it is very frustrating. At this point I'm hoping that is just GM talk, and there are still a couple FA signings and trades to be made. But if he is serious about going into the season with the roster the way it's constructed, with way too much OF depth, guys like Broxton and Phillips at AAA that shouldn't be there just because you have too much depth, and crap reclamation projects rounding out the rotation, doubts are going to start creeping into my head.

[pacopete4]

Are we overrating David Stearns? You gotta be kidding me. In his short time as our GM he has flipped the script on this franchise from rebuilding to being in the mix. I remember many, many people saying that we wouldn't compete for 4-5 years and after his second year was complete, we finished one game from the playoffs.

 

Now we go into an offseason where we add a Yelich and Cain to our lineup and people want to call him overrated because he hasn't buckled and really put this franchise in a corner with a possibly bad contract? Completely ridiculous. Stearns has whiffs like all GM's but to call him overrated is simply pooh-pooh.

[DR28]

Joey, I totally agree... He makes these moves for Yelich and Cain but then only adds Chacin and cast offs to rotation.

 

Currently with the back end of this rotation, we'll need to score 8 runs every game they pitch... We'll be lucky to be in WC hunt come September.

 

And he really doesnt see Cobb or Lynn as upgrade over Miley, Guerra, Suter, Gallardo??? COME ON!

[adambr2]

Are we overrating David Stearns? You gotta be kidding me. In his short time as our GM he has flipped the script on this franchise from rebuilding to being in the mix. I remember many, many people saying that we wouldn't compete for 4-5 years and after his second year was complete, we finished one game from the playoffs.

 

Now we go into an offseason where we add a Yelich and Cain to our lineup and people want to call him overrated because he hasn't buckled and really put this franchise in a corner with a possibly bad contract? Completely ridiculous. Stearns has whiffs like all GM's but to call him overrated is simply pooh-pooh.

 

Agreed....I'm a bit skeptical of the crowded outfield situation and the rotation, but Stearns has earned my trust. So I'm going to wait and see how it unfolds.

 

If he really believes that Miley or Guerra can bounceback in a big way, I'm going to assume he sees good reason to believe it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Are we overrating David Stearns? You gotta be kidding me. In his short time as our GM he has flipped the script on this franchise from rebuilding to being in the mix. I remember many, many people saying that we wouldn't compete for 4-5 years and after his second year was complete, we finished one game from the playoffs.

 

Now we go into an offseason where we add a Yelich and Cain to our lineup and people want to call him overrated because he hasn't buckled and really put this franchise in a corner with a possibly bad contract? Completely ridiculous. Stearns has whiffs like all GM's but to call him overrated is simply pooh-pooh.

 

I still have a lot of faith in him, but I'm not going to lie and say I'm totally confident in this roster and the way it's constructed. Now if this is what they go into the 2018 season with, I'll accept it and be Gallardo's and Miley's biggest supporters. I'll never be on board with the idea of making guys like Santana, Braun and Thames part-time players, though. I've been advocating for Santana to be dealt ever since Yelich and cain were acquired, and if they go into the season with him as the primary RF instead of Phillips, I'll be disappointed.

[monty57]

I think that when he made the Cain and Yelich moves, he thought he'd have a good market for Santana and add a cost-controlled starter from a trade. I don't think it's that he doesn't see Cobb as an upgrade, it's that we wouldn't be able to afford to sign the contract. We'd be okay this year, but by next year we'd be in the red with all the arby raises. If that's the case, then the question is whether we'd have been better off signing Cobb instead of Cain.

 

Another scenario is that Nelson is looking good, so Stearns is only looking at someone for ten starts or so. Stearns could be comfortable with the mix he has for the first couple of months, and by that time we add Nelson and some of our minor leaguers will be that much closer to being MLB ready.

[JohnBriggs12]

The problem isn't starting pitching depth. They have numbers and the quality to fill the 4-5 spots in a rotation adequately but in comparison with what the Cubs have in those two spots, they are short by a fairly wide margin especially when you consider the 1 through 3 spots are decent but not special. They desperately need a Guerra to return to his 2016 form and Nelson to return sooner rather than later with something close to his 2017 version. Those are pretty substantial questions but that's the best case scenario. With what they invested to land Cain and Yelich, and the market for starting pitching depressed, it seems a no-brainer to add not sit on your hands.

 

As for the OF and 1B gluts, Stearns kind of painted himself in a corner much the same way as he did a year ago when they annointed Villar as the 2B for the next 5+ years leaving no room for Gennett who for whatever some think of him, really wasn't a bad player in his time in Milwaukee, and sometimes was pretty good. They had to let him go for nothing, much as it appears they will have to do with Aguilar and maybe more guys later this spring. That might just be the game today as teams rarely make multi player deals using major league players as secondary pieces like Arizona did when they acquired Richie Sexson and included guys like Counsell, Spivey and Mueller who were no longer in their plans.

[stoutdude04]

 

And he really doesnt see Cobb or Lynn as upgrade over Miley, Guerra, Suter, Gallardo??? COME ON!

 

I am pretty certain he doesn't think that.

 

There is a reason the top pitchers of the crop haven't signed yet, and its because no team is willing to pay the amount they think they are worth. The team needs to be sure that the money given is worth the expected product.

[adambr2]

I think that when he made the Cain and Yelich moves, he thought he'd have a good market for Santana and add a cost-controlled starter from a trade. I don't think it's that he doesn't see Cobb as an upgrade, it's that we wouldn't be able to afford to sign the contract. We'd be okay this year, but by next year we'd be in the red with all the arby raises. If that's the case, then the question is whether we'd have been better off signing Cobb instead of Cain.

 

Another scenario is that Nelson is looking good, so Stearns is only looking at someone for ten starts or so. Stearns could be comfortable with the mix he has for the first couple of months, and by that time we add Nelson and some of our minor leaguers will be that much closer to being MLB ready.

 

Again I want to reiterate that I have faith in Stearns. And I really like Cain. But I think you could make a pretty good case that trading for Yelich alone would have been pretty perfect. They could have Yelich split between CF and LF, keep Santana in RF, have Phillips fill in anywhere, and had Braun some in LF, some at 1st. Plenty of PT for everyone.

 

Would I rather have gone that route, and maybe signed Cobb and Walker instead of Cain and Sogard? Probably, and then Aguilar and Broxton probably still have bench roles and don't get forced out. That seems to work out a lot cleaner if we had gone that route with our moves.

 

But -- we'll see what happens. Stearns has a very good track record in a very short amount of time.

[Boomer5]

The roster makes no sense as currently constructed and I'd imagine if they could renegotiate the Cain deal I'm sure they would seeing the market being much softer than they forecasted.

 

But the offseason isn't over yet. Those pitchers will sign and I'd expect the Brewers will get one of them.

 

If not, they should have just let the young guys develop.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yelich and Cain aren't on one year contracts. It's not like they had a surprise season in 2017, so Stearns is going "all in" this year. In fact, even if they get Cobb that's still not going all in. He's continuing to make the MLB roster better, while not destroying the farm system.

[pacopete4]

If the Brewers win 80 games this year, it won't be the end of the world as the window is wide open and this team is ready to compete for a few years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The roster makes no sense as currently constructed and I'd imagine if they could renegotiate the Cain deal I'm sure they would seeing the market being much softer than they forecasted.

 

But the offseason isn't over yet. Those pitchers will sign and I'd expect the Brewers will get one of them.

 

If not, they should have just let the young guys develop.

 

At this point, Cobb turning down the Cubs' reported 3 year/$42 million deal looks like a bad decision. I wonder if that deal would get it done for the Brewers now?

[pacopete4]

The roster makes no sense as currently constructed and I'd imagine if they could renegotiate the Cain deal I'm sure they would seeing the market being much softer than they forecasted.

 

But the offseason isn't over yet. Those pitchers will sign and I'd expect the Brewers will get one of them.

 

If not, they should have just let the young guys develop.

 

At this point, Cobb turning down the Cubs' reported 3 year/$42 million deal looks like a bad decision. I wonder if that deal would get it done for the Brewers now?

My guess is that if 3/$42 got the job done, he'd be in camp with someone right now, including the Cubs.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah I agree in that given how things have played out I'm not nearly as high on the Cain signing. I get Yelich but burning one of the two or three highly productive years Cain has left (most likely) is strange.

 

At the end of the day a loss is a loss whether it comes from a 5.5 ERA guy or a 4.5 ERA guy. The pitching staff may be better at the back end but it's not nearly as good at the top and it just doesn't match up with the other supposed contenders.

 

I'm not saying Stearns is wrong for not signing a pitcher. I'm just saying it is what it is which isn't good enough.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Brewers don't sign any of Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn - those 3 would be hard-pressed to find 3 other teams across MLB that will sign them at the rate things are going before the regular season starts. And say they do sign one of them 3 weeks from now to a contract that's palatable to the Brewers' long term budget restraints - they won't be pitching in Milwaukee until late April, so the Brewers will still need to use arms like Miley, Guerra, Wilkerson, etc for a handful of starts.

 

Regarding Walker, I don't want to derail the thread but do we know for sure he's 100% healthy? He actually sat quite a few games down the stretch for the Brewers in September, even though he was raking - only 1 year removed from back surgery and partially tore a hammy last season...we need to remember there are 29 other MLB teams that could've signed him if they wanted to, also.

 

The roster appears to be jumbled, yes - but they are still 3.5 weeks from opening day. Roster moves and minor trades start happening over the next week or so once spring training rosters start getting trimmed down and pitchers get more stretched out - and teams take a look at what their actual game day rosters look like and see if there are options to fill holes from lack of depth or injuries. I have faith the Brewers 25-man roster will make alot more sense, and fully anticipate guys like Broxton and Aguilar to be moved for some low minor league pieces with upside. 3-4 weeks ago many were exploring trades to send Santana + pieces to Cleveland in exchange for Salazar + Kipnis, etc - how'd that look now that Salazar has proven to be the injury-prone arm he's always been? Stearns knows what he's doing.

 

As for Cain's market - it wasn't that soft, as there were other teams involved at the yearly pricetag the Brewers were offering. Them adding the 5th year sealed the deal.

[pacopete4]

Fans complained about a lack of consistency from our offense last year. Stearns goes out and plugs in two of the more consistent bats in the game and he's overrated. Also, he signed a free agent pitcher in Chacin who has been extremely consistent throughout his career on a very nice contract. Yet because he won't pony up money for the top three, he's overrated. Can't make this stuff up sometimes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Fans complained about a lack of consistency from our offense last year. Stearns goes out and plugs in two of the more consistent bats in the game and he's overrated. Also, he signed a free agent pitcher in Chacin who has been extremely consistent throughout his career on a very nice contract. Yet because he won't pony up money for the top three, he's overrated. Can't make this stuff up sometimes.

 

I think it is more of a case of the impatience of being a baseball fan in March. But it appears that the free agent market is playing into Stearns's hands perfectly. Three of the top four FA pitchers are still on the market as we head into the third week of spring training. All that needs to happen is an AL contender developing an obvious need for either a power hitting corner outfielder or a 1B for all the dominos to be set up perfectly for a terrific Brewers offseason.

 

Moves that could still very well happen that would make this a terrific offseason:

 

1. Sign Cobb or Arrieta to a multi-year deal that is fair for both sides (i.e. 3 years/45-49 million or 4 years/60 million for Cobb and 2 years/49 million for Arrieta)

2. Trade Santana to an AL club for either a young MLB-ready starter or a package of high-upside prospects.

3. Trade Broxton for a solid bullpen piece (Cotton comes to mind) or a couple high-upside young minor leaguers.

4. Trade Aguilar for a similar return to what they get for Broxton.

5. Sign Jeremy Hellickson or Trevor Cahill to a minor league deal, because you can't have enough starting pitching depth, and I'd prefer to see veterans in the rotation at Colorado Springs than guys like Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta.