Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[TJseven7]

Should we stick with Guerra over signing Cobb? I mean at least Guerra still throws his splitter.

 

I was the 1 year following tj cuz it didn't work. Not wanting to add a 2 to the staff who could be a 1 if he gets that pitch back because we have a guy who can throw 4 ip sub 4 era per outing is an interesting choice. Especially since cobb was better without his best pitch.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Should we stick with Guerra over signing Cobb? I mean at least Guerra still throws his splitter.

 

I was the 1 year following tj cuz it didn't work. Not wanting to add a 2 to the staff who could be a 1 if he gets that pitch back because we have a guy who can throw 4 ip sub 4 era per outing is an interesting choice. Especially since cobb was better without his best pitch.

 

The issue with your argument is that it contains a ton of assumption. None of us has any idea how the Brewers view Cobb, and the likelihood that he can get his best pitch back. We have no idea what kind of value they place on him, or, frankly, what he's asking for. The only things that Stearns and Attanasio have said are that there is money available to sign a top-end starter (Attanasio), and that they aren't going to make a move in that direction unless it's a player that significantly moves the needle and is a demonstrably better option than what they already have in-house (Stearns). It is possible that Stearns and the team's analytics team don't view Cobb as an upgrade over what they have, or that he isn't enough of an upgrade to justify the contract he's asking for. They could be viewing Arrieta in that same light. Perhaps the demands from those two will drop to the point where Stearns considers them a solid investment. But since none of us actually knows where that point actually is, it's just guesswork at this point.

[TJseven7]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption. The problem with my argument is assumptions and that's shown by stating nonsensical possibilities? Where's the, well the world could end tomorrow so its moot, hot take?

 

Anythings possible isnt a take. Cobb was a top 60 arm last year as is and could be even better. He'd be our 2nd best pitcher maybe 3rd if nelson comes back well... but they might not see him as a significant upgrade over miley guerra?

 

Its excuses for being cheap.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption.

 

Anythings possible isnt a take.

 

I'd personally love to see Cobb in the rotation. I'm just saying that if the Brewers felt the same way, he'd already be there.

[TJseven7]

My only explanation left is that these dudes simply won't settle for the depressed maeket price and are praying a big money club loses an arm and changes the demand. Otherwise this is nonsense. If the contracts play off darvish this should be sorted out by now.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption.

 

Anythings possible isnt a take.

 

I'd personally love to see Cobb in the rotation. I'm just saying that if the Brewers felt the same way, he'd already be there.

You don't know that. Even if the Brewers would love to have him, they obviously have a price they are willing to pay. You make a lot of assumptions for someone that likes to point out that everyone else is making an assumption.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My only explanation left is that these dudes simply won't settle for the depressed maeket price and are praying a big money club loses an arm and changes the demand. Otherwise this is nonsense. If the contracts play off darvish this should be sorted out by now.

 

You're right. It's very odd at this point to see multiple upper end starting pitchers still sitting on the market. Every one of these guys has some sort of a red flag, but I didn't think they were big enough to stop them from procuring a contract. There's gotta be something these teams are seeing that we as fans aren't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption.

 

Anythings possible isnt a take.

 

I'd personally love to see Cobb in the rotation. I'm just saying that if the Brewers felt the same way, he'd already be there.

You don't know that. Even if the Brewers would love to have him, they obviously have a price they are willing to pay. You make a lot of assumptions for someone that likes to point out that everyone else is making an assumption.

 

[DR28]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption.

 

Anythings possible isnt a take.

 

I'd personally love to see Cobb in the rotation. I'm just saying that if the Brewers felt the same way, he'd already be there.

 

Or we're not willing to pay his price..... YET.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, cobb and miley or Guerra, horse a piece. Calling cobb a 2 isn't assumption. Calling Guerra a guy who can only go 4 ip well isnt assumption.

 

Anythings possible isnt a take.

 

I'd personally love to see Cobb in the rotation. I'm just saying that if the Brewers felt the same way, he'd already be there.

 

Or we're not willing to pay his price..... YET.

[DR28]

Somethings gotta give with Cobb and Lynn... I cant see both sitting out til June.

 

I can see Arrieta waiting til he gets his $150 mil.

[TURBO]

I want no part of Lynn, but I have warmed up to the idea of Cobb.

 

Boras and Arrieta can go pound sand for all I care.

[82brewcrew82]

I want no part of Lynn, but I have warmed up to the idea of Cobb.

 

Boras and Arrieta can go pound sand for all I care.

I was big on Arietta but I think I've come around to this line of thinking.

[MadScientist]

My only explanation left is that these dudes simply won't settle for the depressed maeket price and are praying a big money club loses an arm and changes the demand. Otherwise this is nonsense. If the contracts play off darvish this should be sorted out by now.

 

You're right. It's very odd at this point to see multiple upper end starting pitchers still sitting on the market. Every one of these guys has some sort of a red flag, but I didn't think they were big enough to stop them from procuring a contract. There's gotta be something these teams are seeing that we as fans aren't.

 

Teams are seeing their actual budget, their full internal analytics, and the true asking prices of the pitchers that we only have rumors about. Those things are not meshing, or players would have been signed. Evidence suggests that the pitchers and their agents are asking like players are still going to get contracts based on what they had done, instead of what they can be reasonably expected to produce.

 

Right now it's a game of chicken. Will the GM's give and fork over too much $$ to improve their roster's chance or will the pitchers give and take a contract much lower than what they were hoping for. Another factor might be a lack of GM's on the hot seat willing to spend money to try to get results to save their jobs and let contract messes fall to their successors.

[RockCoCougars]

Bottom line is these guys obviously have an inflated sense of their own value. Just because they were near the top rated in a down market does not make them top starters. Now they find themselves in a bad situation due to their greed. I agree with the idea that they are hoping to get bailed out with an injury somewhere at this point. I think the Brewers should pass at this point unless they are willing to accept one or maybe two years.

[tigerbrew]

I think Arrieta made the huge mistake of not negotiating and sign the big contract after the 2015 season, probably due to the bad advice of Boras to wait for FA.

 

I think this year's free agency has taught players that FA could be a nightmare, and many more players would now be keen to negotiate for extensions early rather than wait for FA. This could help the Brewers sign their own players to reasonable extensions in the future.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Arrieta made the huge mistake of not negotiating and sign the big contract after the 2015 season, probably due to the bad advice of Boras to wait for FA.

 

I think this year's free agency has taught players that FA could be a nightmare, and many more players would now be keen to negotiate for extensions early rather than wait for FA. This could help the Brewers sign their own players to reasonable extensions in the future.

 

It could be just a one-year anomaly too. There are several huge free agents that should be paid big dollars next year, so I wouldn't be surprised if the $$$ was handed out liberally again.

 

But I think with analytics playing a bigger role, we won't see as many dumb contracts as in the past. The good, solid consistent players will still be paid, though.

[brewmann04]

so do you think either is a brewer?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

so do you think either is a brewer?

 

Logic would probably dictate that one of Arrieta or Cobb will be a Brewer. I mean, the dots are pretty easy to connect. This offseason has been anything but logical, though.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Cobb signs a 3-year deal with the Brewers this week. That's a total guess, though, and I'm not even going to try to speculate on what the money will be. Because at this point who knows?

[brewmann04]

hope your right will be nice to get something done

[danzig6767]

Somethings gotta give with Cobb and Lynn... I cant see both sitting out til June.

 

I can see Arrieta waiting til he gets his $150 mil.

If Arrieta won't sign until/unless he gets 150 million or more, then he better start making retirement plans.

[HighHeat19]

Cobb to sign last week of March.

[Jaylyn]

Cobb to sign last week of March.

 

With the Brewers? Honestly, this drawn out process has tried my patience. Hope it's with someone else!

[MadThinker88]

Cobb to sign last week of March.

 

First - thanks for the post

 

Second - I hope Cobb does sign with the Brewers but I guess if he signs with any team during the last week of March, the piece of insight still holds true.

 

Third - I need someone to help me understand why any FA would be waiting to sign until the end of spring training/ as the season opens. Now is the time when a player (especially a starting pitcher) needs to get into camp and get himself ready to be able to break camp with his team. Waiting just puts the player behind the rest and (like those that get hurt at this time) they seem to be playing catch up the entire year...

[Jaylyn]

Cobb to sign last week of March.

 

First - thanks for the post

 

Second - I hope Cobb does sign with the Brewers but I guess if he signs with any team during the last week of March, the piece of insight still holds true.

 

Third - I need someone to help me understand why any FA would be waiting to sign until the end of spring training/ as the season opens. Now is the time when a player (especially a starting pitcher) needs to get into camp and get himself ready to be able to break camp with his team. Waiting just puts the player behind the rest and (like those that get hurt at this time) they seem to be playing catch up the entire year...

 

Your third point is dead on.