Pen composition requirements strategy

[TJseven7]

Admittedly I'm a touch obsessed with the +1.1 run diff (supposed) tipping point and the most cost effective way to achieve it. The aim of 5 runs was attempted to be discussed in the 1b/of logjam as a strategy thread. That leaves 2 more pieces... 4.0 staff era. 3.65 pen era. Combining 5 runs with a team era of 3.9.

 

There's been some trepidation over stearns pen building. I believe last year was a whiff (Feliz) coupled with an assumption that the team wasn't ready to contend yet. This year should have caused a push to improve the pen, many wanted an investment made there, that didn't come. The reliever market might be at an all time high value point but what does a pen require to be successful?

 

In the 5.0 runs 3.9 era run diff goal... 90 wins baseline... which appears cost effective and small market possible the pen must contribute a 3.65 era.

 

First, leverage is important. No one can discount that the ability to close the door matters to a teams win total. Merely having 7-8 guys around 3.65 will not accomplish the task. So we look at mke... and their analytical brain twin Houston.

 

The anchor in the storm: (2)

Knebel Hader

Giles Devenski (was supposed to be gregerson)

 

Two high leverage guys who can hold down a 2.5 era. Critical, highly valuable. Houston made a dramatic push to get Giles. We stole or fell into Knebel. Devenski was a ptbnl in the Myers trade surprise... Hader was the 3rd or 4th value piece in the feirs gomez trade. Yet, critcal arms.

 

Cheap Stability: (2)

Albers Jeffress

Will Harris (was supposed to be sipp as well)

 

Houston signed Will Harris to a 2 year 5 mil total deal. 2.99 career era, regular success. We signed albers and jeffress to like minded deals. Low value, yet low 3 era, fairly consistent arms. Overlooked FAs who simply add stability. Hughes is also this type. Houston got splashy on Sipp.

 

After that... pen? Screw the pen.

 

Once you look beyond the top 3 of Giles Devenski Harris the astros pen was a garbage pit. Now, its fair to say they were worse than the team expected as I doubt they saw 4+ from the 13 mil they put into gregerson (who flamed out in his last year of a 6 aav 3 year deal) and sipp (paid 6aav/3 after his 2015 1.99 year, flamed out year 2) They attempted to be 4 deep...as Devenski was a surprise. They assumed to have Giles Gregerson Sipp Harris. We are assuming to go Knebel Hader Albers Jeffress. A more cap friendly approach with 2 controlled young guns (blessing) and 2 value stability adds. (2 Harris' not 1)

 

Knebel last year 1.8, Hader last year 2.1... 1.1 era wiggle room (knebel career 3.0)

Albers last 6 years 2.8, Jeffress career 3.4... .4 era ahead (jeffress mke career 2.6)

 

Two anchors at 2.5 era. 2 stability arms at 3.0 and 3.6 era leaves 4 spots to combine for 4.4 era while hitting the 3.65 mark. 4.4 weak rubbish era. We HATE Drake 4.44 era. Scahill LOL 4.43 era. Torres was a loathed dumpster fire 4.21 era. Barnes was bad 4.0 era. You avoid the complete and utter garbage and 4.4 is pretty easy to do. Drake Scahill Torres Barnes beat 4.4... I know! So that leaves...

 

The volitile: (4)

So who is on that list this year? Barnes, Logan, Hoover, Yo, Suter, Williams, Houser, Lopez, Liz, Ramirez, Peralta. Arms who come in with a requirement of low expectations. Arms you are looking to develop to graduate to the achor/stabilty roles in the future. Arms who simply have to avoid burning down the house. Catch a Devenski along with the top 4 meeting expectations and the pen bests need.

 

This model looks like the proper approach. 2 anchors, 2 stability, 4 volitile. It can be done cheaply if the achors are controlled. It leaves 3-4 slots to develop the next wave. If a peralta houser williams can graduate to stable or anchor then you can go cheaper, or even trade away an anchor (god forbid) if the offer is worth it. Giles Thorny type packages, which are obviously unlikely.

 

Proposing: While other teams are paying rp... its unnecessary to be a 90 win team. I will not discount that the extra power arms are helpful for the playoffs but arms like Albers Jeffress Hughes Logan who can be had for 3mil aav or less do the trick in the 3-4 spots. 5-8 merely have to avoid being flaming bags of poo. Last year peralta feliz milone Espino and Marinez didnt do their part. Stunningly, Torres Scahill Drake Barnes would have handled 5-8 adequately. Our depth options now have upper level pen potential. Far more and better depth. The pen is cheap and stealth good. No spending required all due to Knebel Hader.

[Oxy]

Good luck.

[homer]

Good luck.

 

please try to avoid one and two word "drive by" posts. thanks.