Greg Holland

[MKEguy]

Holland is a guy that seems to have been discussed in passing, but not in depth. He’s been on top of my list since the releif market settled down. He was on a pricetah of f 1/$7m deal last year with the Rockies. With this market, I could see that pricetag repeating itself. I’d see this as a Cain / Yelich idea, where the bullpen isn’t a weakness, but we’re improving our strength. I’m sure he wouldn’t WANT to be a setup guy, but Arrieta wanted more money than he got. There doesn’t seem to be any signs of regression. On the downside, it would take up money that could be used at mid season to shore up holes, whether it’s 2b, SP, or another position we cannot invision at this point.

 

I like that the Brewers are built around depth, especially with the rotation, or as CC says, initial out getters. We’ve got more young arms coming over the next couple years, who project to be useful. I’d much rather see than than Cobb.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I don't think a 1/7 contract hurts our ability to add a player or two at the deadline. If Holland is interested I would be down.

[MadThinker88]

I don't think a 1/7 contract hurts our ability to add a player or two at the deadline. If Holland is interested I would be down.

 

Since Holland declined a QO, it will also cost a draft pick (IIRC the Brewer 4th round pick) and the related signing pool money.

I do not think a 1 yr deal makes much sense considering the other things that have to be given up (besides salary).

If it could be a 2 yr deal at $15M total, I would be more inclined to sign him..

[KCBrewerfan34]

I don't think a 1/7 contract hurts our ability to add a player or two at the deadline. If Holland is interested I would be down.

 

Since Holland declined a QO, it will also cost a draft pick (IIRC the Brewer 4th round pick) and the related signing pool money.

I do not think a 1 yr deal makes much sense considering the other things that have to be given up (besides salary).

If it could be a 2 yr deal at $15M total, I would be more inclined to sign him..

 

 

Ouch, didn't know he stupidly turned down a QO. More bad advice from the agent world. Not surprised.

[Point Beer Is Best]

From what I can tell, here's the contract saga for Greg Holland over the past 15 months:

 

- January 2017: Signs a 2 year deal (1 year with either a mutual or player option) with the Rockies, which had a maximum value of $35M. He was guaranteed $6M in 2017 base salary, with an additional $8M in incentives possible. By my calculations, since he made 61 appearances and finished 58 games, he reached all of them for a total of $14M for 2017.

- Holland had reached the milestones to trigger his player option on the 2018 contract (would have been $15M), but he declined, and collected the $1M buyout.

- Rockies extended the Qualifying Offer, which Holland also declined.

- Rockies (reportedly) offer Holland a 3 year, $52M ($17.3M AAV) contract which Holland declined.

- Rockies offer the same deal to Wade Davis, who accepts it during the time period when relievers are getting really good money.

- March 2018: Holland is still unemployed.

[MKEguy]

- March 2018: Holland is still unemployed.

 

This is why I brought this up. There have been so many deals where players didn’t get anything close to what they wanted or their peers received.

 

I don’t want a $50m reliever.

 

If no one is going to pay Holland $50m over a few, can we swoop in and offer him a tiny contract?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Solid reliever, but not really a need. He's not going to displace Knebel as the closer, and while he'd be a nice set-up guy, I think I'd rather just keep the pick and role with Taylor Williams.

[SeaBass]

- March 2018: Holland is still unemployed.

[insert Price is Right Fail Horn Here]

[Devinep]

They don’t even take advantage of the slow FA market when it would be a direct upgrade for some reason so they won’t now

[MadThinker88]

Solid reliever, but not really a need. He's not going to displace Knebel as the closer, and while he'd be a nice set-up guy, I think I'd rather just keep the pick and role with Taylor Williams.

 

At this point, signing someone like Cobb to augment the top part of the rotation makes more sense. But if that does not happen, bringing in Holland is not a bad way to go.

 

First - We can agree to disagree on this but Holland is capable of supplanting Knebel as closer. If Knebel was the main setup it would help to keep some of his increasing costs in line the next few seasons thru arbitration.

 

Second - Even if Knebel retains the closer role (and that might be a deal breaker for getting Holland), there is the possibility of regression from last season leading to some ineffectiveness or the chance of injury. Having Holland available provides for a clear safety net for closing games with multiple seasons of good closer performance. Other than Jeremy Jeffress the rest of the bullpen lacks that closer experience.

 

I am not advocating signing Holland to a mega deal ($40MM+ across 3 plus years). Just that he could be a worthwhile pick up under right terms.

 

FYI - there was a thread earlier this off season about if one could grant any 1 free agent to the Crew, who would you select? I wrote back then that I wanted either Wade Davis or Greg Holland as I was concerned about the growing costs with relievers and the high possibility of Knebel regressing. After the moves during this off season I can be swayed to getting a better starter 1st, but I still have my concerns about the pen and Knebel in particular.

[82brewcrew82]

Solid reliever, but not really a need. He's not going to displace Knebel as the closer, and while he'd be a nice set-up guy, I think I'd rather just keep the pick and role with Taylor Williams.

I challenge you to find someone with higher hopes for Williams than me but I don't think that would scare me off of Holland. If they are going to run with the rotation as it stands, they are going to need as many good arms in the pen as they can find.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Solid reliever, but not really a need. He's not going to displace Knebel as the closer, and while he'd be a nice set-up guy, I think I'd rather just keep the pick and role with Taylor Williams.

I challenge you to find someone with higher hopes for Williams than me but I don't think that would scare me off of Holland. If they are going to run with the rotation as it stands, they are going to need as many good arms in the pen as they can find.

 

My issue with Holland was that he wasn't lights-out to the point where I'd feel comfortable handing him $7-8 million and giving up my 4th round pick. Lots of saves, but the ERA was nothing to get super excited about.

 

But I guess the interest would depend on where the need is. I'm pretty happy with where the bullpen is, and if money is such an issue where they can't devote it to the rotation right now, I'd rather hang onto it for a potential deadline move.

[reillymcshane]

I'd have no problem giving Holland $7-8M for a year - even if it means giving up our 4th pick.

 

If the team is doing well, having a talented late inning guy would be great. If the club isn't doing great, you could deal him at the deadline.

 

However, the team has to feel he's healthy. His second half collapse last year was pretty pronounced. I honestly don't know that much about his struggles after the all-star break (was it health, did he just run out of gas after missing the previous season, etc.).

 

The back end of the bullpen with Holland, Hader and Knebel would look pretty sweet (at least on paper).

 

I find it unlikely that Holland signs with Milwaukee since he won't be the closer. Not sure if any other team has an opening for closer, but several contending clubs (Cubs and Cardinals for instance) have closing situations where you don't have a definitive closer. He would probably be best finding a good club like those and working his way into the closing job - as opposed to having Knebel in his way.

[JosephC]

I thought he would be going to the Rangers but apparently within the last 24 hours, Jon Daniels stated that the Rangers are not adding a closer from outside the organization. MLBTradeRumors says the Braves and Diamondbacks may be interested. I think the Diamondbacks make the most sense. Archie Bradley, Brad Boxberger and Japanese newcomer Yoshihisa Hirano are all in competition for that spot but I think the addition of Holland would really solidify the back end of that bullpen and along with that rotation they would have a really attractive pitching staff.

 

But I do think the Brewers should be in on this if the price stays in the 4 million range, which at this point I would guess it is. Loss of the draft pick wouldn't bother me. I like Knebel but he could always regress and it would be nice to have Holland as an insurance policy. The front of the bullpen IMO doesn't look that great (I currently think J.J. Hoover makes the roster and from 2014-2017 his MLB FIP is a horrible 5.23, which is why I don't want to see him make the roster). Adding Holland to the back end bumps all the other relievers other than Knebel down a spot and makes the bullpen better top to bottom. Right now Hader might be locked into the eighth inning, adding Holland gives Counsell a bit more flexibility in how he handles the late innings. And by the trade deadline, most teams are looking to add a reliever. I think it's likely the Brewers would be one of those teams this year. Add Holland now might fill that hole. Spend 4-5 million now and lose a fourth round pick for six months of work, or trade a decent prospect and have to pick up a contract for two months of work later on. And even though he faded late last year, when on the mound Holland has an excellent track record. 3.72 FIP in 2017 was actually a pretty horrible number for him. Looking at his numbers from 2012-2017: 2.50 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB. I would agree that the seasons he had in 2013 and 2014 will not happen again. But the projection services at Fangraphs have him as having a 3.65 ERA and 3.57 FIP (on average) for 2018, and if I were to bet whether he'd be better or worse, I'd guess he'll be a bit better than that. Well worth a 4 million dollar investment and a 4th round pick. If it turns out the Diamondbacks aren't interested, I really can't see a good reason why the Brewers should be sitting this one out.

[DR28]

I'll only feel better about missing out on Cobb, is if we add Holland and have a super pen.

 

Knebel

Holland

Hader

Albers

Logan

Jeffress

Barnes or Williams

[JosephC]

I figured Holland would come at a bargain bin type price tag at this point but have to question that now since Cobb just beat many of the early off-season projections on his deal. If Holland is in the one year, 4-5 million range then the Brewers should definitely go for it. But after yesterday, maybe Holland can still pull in a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal which would be way too rich for me. This is a market where Anthony Swarzak got 2 years, 14 million and I think everyone would pretty much agree that Holland should be above that number. Average deal for Brandon Morrow, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio was 2 years, 18.67 million. But maybe Holland will have to settle for less and fall into the Lance Lynn group of players who really seemed to get shorted this off-season, and if that's the case the Brewers should be interested.

[jerichoholicninja]

Holland knows he can wait until after the season starts to sign because someone's closer will get hurt or implode and he'll get close to what he wants for at least 1 year.

[TJseven7]

There is no way this team is paying holland 8/1 along with the 4th. We spent on one RP in 2 years and we didn't know what we had in Knebel or Hader then.

 

I'd be completely stunned.

[Roderick]

I figured Holland would come at a bargain bin type price tag at this point but have to question that now since Cobb just beat many of the early off-season projections on his deal. /quote]

 

I don't want to make it a Cobb thread, but I don't think Holland can think his price will go up from the Cobb signing.

 

When you figure in the deferred structure of Cobb's contract (agent/player save face), I don't think he came close to getting what a vast majority of the people thought he was going to get money-wise.

 

The only thing he got was the number of years that maybe some people didn't think he would get, but since it is at a reduced price, why not.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think there's any chance Holland signs a bargain contract. As a reliever, it's much easier to justify sitting out until a significant need arises. Look at the prices in prospects teams paid for high end relievers the last couple years, a team could easily justify doing a 2 or 3 year deal with the first year being at an abbreviated cost sometime in June or July.

[brewcrewdue80]

Holland is not signing for under 10million to play this season. He'll hold out as he took the discount last year and already declined a deal worth more than 10mil a year. He's very good. if Schwarzak is worth 7mil a year, Holland is easily worth 10+. Wade Davis 3/52mil is what he turned down supposedly. 17mil a year. He's 32 already taken a pay cut, He'll be sitting out for at least 3 years, probably wants that career ending 4year with 5th year option type of contract.

 

I'd expect teams that are within the Luxury threshold are working hard for some kind of say 3-5mil contract for 2018 and 20mil the years after when they aren't paying tax.

[brewerfan82]

I'd expect teams that are within the Luxury threshold are working hard for some kind of say 3-5mil contract for 2018 and 20mil the years after when they aren't paying tax.

I believe I read that they count the average salary of the entire contract against the threshhold to prevent teams from avoiding it with lopsided deals. Can anyone confirm what the rules are in that regard?

[MrTPlush]

I'd expect teams that are within the Luxury threshold are working hard for some kind of say 3-5mil contract for 2018 and 20mil the years after when they aren't paying tax.

I believe I read that they count the average salary of the entire contract against the threshhold to prevent teams from avoiding it with lopsided deals. Can anyone confirm what the rules are in that regard?

 

Correct, no cheating the system.

[adambr2]

There's still plenty of ways to cheat the system to stay under the threshold. The Giants' deal with Tony Watson is proof of that.

[MKEguy]

I’d argue against our idea of what he’s worth in this market, especially comparing him to Swarzek’s contract. Yes, Holland is the better pitcher. Is Cain that much better than moose to get such a huge contract, comparatively? This off season has some crazy deals.

 

I agree, however, that he’ll probably wait out for some injuries because someone will eventually pay a decent contract.

 

I can always hope for a $6M one year deal, even though I don’t think it’s going to happen. If there is one position who’s been getting paid, as discussed before, is RPing.