Top 25 Ballot discussion - Sleepers, Breakouts, Disappointments, Comebacks

[clancyphile]

I figured I'd kick off a discussion thread on Top 25 ballots.

 

Who do you think the biggest sleepers in the system are? Who's going to break out? Who's a bust, and who makes a comeback?

 

In my mind, Drake Owenby could be a huge sleeper prospect. Drafted in the 15th round of the 2015 draft out of Tennessee, he's a college lefty, but he put up good numbers at Wisconsin the last two years. K numbers took a big uptick in 2017. Floor could be a late-inning bullpen arm, but I wonder if he's capable of being a TOR guy.

 

Bubba Derby is also high on the list. I flash back to Brent Suter not being lit up like many pitchers are in Colorado Springs in 2015, and while I have Burnes (dominance), Woodruff (MLB-ready), Taylor Williams (MLB-ready late-inning arm), and Owenby (ceiling), Derby is worth a look as someone who could compete for a 2019 rotation spot out of nowhere.

 

Ernesto Wilson Martinez is just hitting American minors after being in the DSL. This guy pulled 36 walks against 155 ABs. He also cranked out 14 extra base hits. Five years from now, I think he could be a contender to be the Crew's first baseman.

 

As for breakouts, I think Owenby is my biggest bet for one. The numbers at Wisconsin look very good, and that 2017 strikeout rate is exciting.

 

Busts? I have Kirby, Lara, and Meideiros high on the list - with Demi Orimoloye, Corey Ray, and Tyrone Taylor all in a make-or-break mode this year.

 

Comeback players? I think Ronnie Gideon could re-emerge. He'd been a part-time player after the Brewers drafted him in 2016, and 2017 was his first full season of pro ball. If he's adjusted to that, I think he could rebound from a sub-par 2017. Taylor, while in a make-or-break year has a couple of big HRs to his credit in spring training. I could see the Crew selling high on him if he rebounds.

[JohnBriggs12]

Breakout: Cody Ponce. I expect him to be emerge as one of the top 3-4 starting pitching prospects in the organization. Could be in line for September call up.

 

Sleeper: Troy Stokes. Just 22, he flashed 20 HR power last year making him viable as a 4th OF in Milwaukee down the road. You don't need to be 6'3"+. See Jose Altuve

 

Bust: Corey Ray. Until he proves otherwise.

 

Comeback: Jorge Lopez.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't sleep on Jon Perrin. 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, better than 4/1 K/BB rate last year in Biloxi. 6'5", plus fastball. Not huge k numbers, but gets a lot of ground ball outs. 23 on my list, so it's not like I don't see his floor too.

 

Erceg is the bat I see breaking out of all the Carolina guys from last year. Just love his swing. He takes his walks, has power, just so close to putting it all together.

[CheezWizHed]

Erect is the bat I see breaking out of all the Carolina guys from last year. Just love his swing. He takes his walks, has power, just so close to putting it all together.

 

Uhh... Erceg?

[CheeseheadInQC]

In my mind, Drake Owenby could be a huge sleeper prospect. Drafted in the 15th round of the 2015 draft out of Tennessee, he's a college lefty, but he put up good numbers at Wisconsin the last two years. K numbers took a big uptick in 2017. Floor could be a late-inning bullpen arm, but I wonder if he's capable of being a TOR guy.

Maybe it is because I was at the game where the River Bandits took all of their frustrations over being made to look absolutely foolish by Adrian Houser out on Owenby, but I'm not sure what to make of his 2017. He undoubtedly proved two things: 1. the injury was no longer an issue and 2. his 2016 wasn't a fluke. But the problem is, he shouldn't have been in Wisconsin, and if it weren't for the injury, he wouldn't have been.

 

And there's the thing, if you had put Owenby's stat line in his first full season up and asked how that pitcher would do in a second go-around in the Midwest League, you probably would have gotten guesses of a slightly lower ERA and slightly lower strikeout rate (maybe 10.0), but otherwise the same. And it's not like we haven't recently seen guys put up some absurd numbers the second time around in Wisconsin: Jon Perrin had a 47:1 strikeout to walk ratio (still one of my favorite minor league stat lines) and Trey Supak posted even better stats than Owenby across the board (including a .76 WHIP) before seeing his K/9 rate slashed from 11.6 to 7.1 after getting promoted to Carolina.

 

That being said, he also probably didn't get the recognition he deserved for his solid first go-around. I think his route might be the bullpen though, and it wouldn't shock me, depending on if any relievers get held back in Biloxi to avoid CS, if he skips Carolina and battles QTC, Kuntz and possibly Ramirez if the spring lineups are any indication for the title of best lefty in the AA bullpen, where he'd probably be ticketed for anyway if he hadn't gotten hurt.

[FVBrewerFan]

Erect is the bat I see breaking out of all the Carolina guys from last year. Just love his swing. He takes his walks, has power, just so close to putting it all together.

 

Uhh... Erceg?

 

Wow, autocorrect on my phone did a number on that one!!

[adambr2]

Erect is the bat I see breaking out of all the Carolina guys from last year. Just love his swing. He takes his walks, has power, just so close to putting it all together.

 

Uhh... Erceg?

 

Wow, autocorrect on my phone did a number on that one!!

 

 

[MrTPlush]

If he gets caught for performance enhancers I don’t know who will be more dissapointed...us fans or his girlfriend.

[Mr Southpaw]

Breakout: Jacob Nottingham. Smashes AAA, then off to MKE. Runner-Up Kodi Medeiros

 

Sleeper: Nick Raminez. My favorite prospect (because he has only been pitching a year). Runner-Up Bubba Derby

 

Bust: Corey Ray. Until the crickets stop ringing in my ears, I will assume bust. Runner-Up Jorge Lopez

 

Comeback: Tyrone Taylor. He is still fairly young and has a boatload of talent. Runner-Up Nathan Kirby

[FVBrewerFan]

Looking over everyone's lists again, one thing strikes me/ When I look at the big picture, I think how we perceive the system today is the floor. 6 months from now, there could very well be a lot more to be excited about.

 

You have all the pitchers coming back from injury (And in the case of Bickford suspension.) Kirby, Bickford, Houser, etc. could all out-perform their ranking. Ditto for under-performers with talent like Nottingham, Coulter, ERCEG, Ray, Grisham. Finally, a lot of high ceiling guys at the lower levels.

 

My point is, I don't see many of these guys going down much in perceived talent, but there's a ton of upside potential overall. Hope that makes sense?

[clancyphile]

In my mind, Drake Owenby could be a huge sleeper prospect. Drafted in the 15th round of the 2015 draft out of Tennessee, he's a college lefty, but he put up good numbers at Wisconsin the last two years. K numbers took a big uptick in 2017. Floor could be a late-inning bullpen arm, but I wonder if he's capable of being a TOR guy.

Maybe it is because I was at the game where the River Bandits took all of their frustrations over being made to look absolutely foolish by Adrian Houser out on Owenby, but I'm not sure what to make of his 2017. He undoubtedly proved two things: 1. the injury was no longer an issue and 2. his 2016 wasn't a fluke. But the problem is, he shouldn't have been in Wisconsin, and if it weren't for the injury, he wouldn't have been.

 

And there's the thing, if you had put Owenby's stat line in his first full season up and asked how that pitcher would do in a second go-around in the Midwest League, you probably would have gotten guesses of a slightly lower ERA and slightly lower strikeout rate (maybe 10.0), but otherwise the same. And it's not like we haven't recently seen guys put up some absurd numbers the second time around in Wisconsin: Jon Perrin had a 47:1 strikeout to walk ratio (still one of my favorite minor league stat lines) and Trey Supak posted even better stats than Owenby across the board (including a .76 WHIP) before seeing his K/9 rate slashed from 11.6 to 7.1 after getting promoted to Carolina.

 

That being said, he also probably didn't get the recognition he deserved for his solid first go-around. I think his route might be the bullpen though, and it wouldn't shock me, depending on if any relievers get held back in Biloxi to avoid CS, if he skips Carolina and battles QTC, Kuntz and possibly Ramirez if the spring lineups are any indication for the title of best lefty in the AA bullpen, where he'd probably be ticketed for anyway if he hadn't gotten hurt.

 

I think that Owenby's floor is as a 7th/8th/9th inning reliever - kind of a Thornburg/Knebel/Jeffress type who is left-handed, something very valuable. The big question is whether he can emerge to be a contributor in the rotation.

 

Owenby's K/9 numbers and WHIP point to someone who could be a left-handed Nelson. That's a lot more valuable than a bullpen arm. The fact that he's a 15th-round pick is another bonus, too. It's the kind of steal the Crew needs at least once or twice a draft.

[CheezWizHed]

I just noticed how deep we are in RHSP. My top 25 has 12 of them. At catcher, we are deep in talent, but not the "can't miss types", so they tend to be lower ranked. It will be interesting who comes out ahead this year.

 

My Breakouts: KJ Harrison, Ernesto Martinez Jr, Zach Clark

My Bounce backs: Kodi Medeiros, Lucas Erceg, Phil Bickford

Good bye to: Clint Coulter, Yadiel Rivera, and Tyrone Taylor

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just noticed how deep we are in RHSP. My top 25 has 12 of them. At catcher, we are deep in talent, but not the "can't miss types", so they tend to be lower ranked. It will be interesting who comes out ahead this year.

 

My Breakouts: KJ Harrison, Ernesto Martinez Jr, Zach Clark

My Bounce backs: Kodi Medeiros, Lucas Erceg, Phil Bickford

Good bye to: Clint Coulter, Yadiel Rivera, and Tyrone Taylor

 

Well Rivera is with the Marlins now, so the good-byes have likely been completed.

 

I'm hoping Coulter can still become something. I'm getting sick of seeing all these failed 1st rounders.

[And That]

Good bye to: Clint Coulter, Yadiel Rivera, and Tyrone Taylor

Yadi already left. He signed with the Marlins this offseason.

[CheezWizHed]

See how good my predictions are? One already came true!

[CheeseheadInQC]

The Braden Webb post in the voting thread reminded me that I was going to move him into my top 25 after noticing something similar earlier. He's my pick to post a dominant first couple of months at Wisconsin the same way that Perrin and Supak did the last two years. Hopefully if he does he won't suffer the same Carolina letdown Supak did after getting promoted.

 

Also, there is no way that I'm putting him in the top 25 after the walk rate he posted last year, but one longshot breakout pick might be Conor Harber. I figured he might be fighting for a roster spot after last season, but he's been getting starting nods on the spring lineups thus far. If that means he is still being looked at as a starter, the Brewers must see something there stuff-wise. He was one of the best performers on that absolutely stacked Wisconsin pitching staff in 2016 (his numbers were actually better than Yamamoto's and not that different from Freddy Peralta's).

[And That]

Harber has an extremely high spin rate curveball that makes him a relief prospect almost all by itself. Whether or not he can figure out the command/control piece and find a changeup will dictate if he sticks as a starter. He was one of my favorite pitchers going into last season, but like you said had a control meltdown. I only saw him pitch a few times so I don't have any insight as to why the control problems developed so substantially.

[KeithStone53151]

I think Medeiros breaks out in a big way this year, possibly even leapfrogs into the Burnes/Woodruff/Ortiz/Peralta. Let's not forget he's still only 21, about the same age as Peralta and significantly younger than the other 3 guys. I also think Gatewood has a good year in AA/AAA, I tend to be high on the prospects who put in the jimmy nelson-esque effort and Gatewood is one of them.

[Mass Haas]

Brewers prospect Erceg getting back on track

Third baseman is pain-free after being slowed by back injury

By Adam McCalvy, MLB.com

[LouisEly]

Harber has an extremely high spin rate curveball that makes him a relief prospect almost all by itself. Whether or not he can figure out the command/control piece and find a changeup will dictate if he sticks as a starter. He was one of my favorite pitchers going into last season, but like you said had a control meltdown. I only saw him pitch a few times so I don't have any insight as to why the control problems developed so substantially.

I had Harber in my top 50 pre-2017. I wonder if the Brewers asked him to add a pitch or two, or change how he throws it. He could have been putting a lot of work in to the change.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sleeper to be Medieros

Breakout to be Ponce

Disappointments to be Grisham or Ray

Comeback to be Kirby

 

I think this year Medieros has his SP role moved to RP and his nastiness rivals Hader's

 

Ponce is just under-rated. Somehow a 2nd round pick who goes 137IP under 3.4ERA at 6'6" with 4 pitches to pull from and improving his pitching isn't garnering attention like he should.... Let's look at why. K rate for '17. I'm going continues to improve his pitching, maybe even finding 1MPH back on his FB and the Ks follow. Will be in the top 100 before the season ends.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Between injuries and aggressive promotions, it seems as if the Wisconsin rotation would be a good place to look for sleepers, if only because of the opportunity. I could see Bowden Francis putting together a season like Webb had last year where some early struggles give way to a strong second half.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sleeper to be Medieros

Breakout to be Ponce

Disappointments to be Grisham or Ray

Comeback to be Kirby

 

I think this year Medieros has his SP role moved to RP and his nastiness rivals Hader's

 

Ponce is just under-rated. Somehow a 2nd round pick who goes 137IP under 3.4ERA at 6'6" with 4 pitches to pull from and improving his pitching isn't garnering attention like he should.... Let's look at why. K rate for '17. I'm going continues to improve his pitching, maybe even finding 1MPH back on his FB and the Ks follow. Will be in the top 100 before the season ends.

 

Can't agree more about Ponce. In walking the back fields at Maryvale, he was easily the most impressive I witnessed. Looked like a man among boys with the minor leaguers.

[BrewersAA]

Interesting to see tom flanighan name Tyrone Taylor as his breakout candidate. Said the pop is back after dealing with injuries and the brewer still see him as having room to develop, the defense is excellent. Maybe this is just Org speak, but maybe it’s something they saw at the end of last season helping to make a couple other centerfielders more expendable???

[StearnsFTW]

I think Trent Grisham will be a top 3 system prospect by season's end. And i think Ray will be top 5.