1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy

[markedman5]

He will play a lot at first and share time in the outfield as needed. Unless Santana gets traded obviously.

 

He is going to play regularly some place.....unless he gets hurt again.

[timpep]

 

This is what I was referring to.......this poster suggests that Santana will play every day.....and that Braun can't play first......so that basically leaves him as a 4th outfielder because we know Cain and Yelich are playing.

 

To be fair, it's a tough situation to wrap your head around.

We have 4 starting outfielders, none of which are backups and the other guy losing playing time (Thames) was arguably our most productive offensive player last year.

I don't really think someone assuming Braun is the odd man out is incredibly unreasonable.

No matter how you look at it one of Braun, cain, Santana, yelich, and Thames will be on the bench every day. That is still crazy to me.

[82brewcrew82]

Condescension aside, all that tells me is that the 1B experiment isn't working so they are trying to find more AB's for Braun. It doesn't say that Braun is all of a sudden going to be the primary RF. They aren't making a point of saying they are getting Santana AB's in LF. They seem pretty set on Yelich-Cain-Santana OF from left to right and are trying to find ways to work in Braun, not the other way around. My overall point still stands.

[82brewcrew82]

He will play a lot at first and share time in the outfield as needed. Unless Santana gets traded obviously.

 

He is going to play regularly some place.....unless he gets hurt again.

I guess I just disagree with the notion that Braun is going to play "a lot" of first. If that thing was going well they wouldn't need to suddenly try and get him AB's in RF.

[MVP2110]

I fully expect Yelich to get plenty of spots at all 3 Outfield spots. Days Braun is at first or off Yelich will be in Left, Days Santana is off Yelich will be in right, and days Cain is off Yelich will be in Center.

[markedman5]

Ok....time will tell.

[pacopete4]

He will play a lot at first and share time in the outfield as needed. Unless Santana gets traded obviously.

 

He is going to play regularly some place.....unless he gets hurt again.

I guess I just disagree with the notion that Braun is going to play "a lot" of first. If that thing was going well they wouldn't need to suddenly try and get him AB's in RF.

Or could it have to do with wanting to keep Yelich in LF more when Braun plays in the OF?

[82brewcrew82]

Ok....time will tell.

That is true.

[82brewcrew82]

He will play a lot at first and share time in the outfield as needed. Unless Santana gets traded obviously.

 

He is going to play regularly some place.....unless he gets hurt again.

I guess I just disagree with the notion that Braun is going to play "a lot" of first. If that thing was going well they wouldn't need to suddenly try and get him AB's in RF.

Or could it have to do with wanting to keep Yelich in LF more when Braun plays in the OF?

Well sure, but why not do that from the beginning of spring then if that was the plan? Did this just occur to them in the last four days that they'd want Yelich in LF as much as possible? Either way, still don't see any suggestion that Braun is the primary RF.

[istanbultaye]

Tinfoil hat... maybe the trade talks about Santana have been heating up, so they wanted Braun to get a bit of action out there? /tinfoil off

[82brewcrew82]

Tinfoil hat... maybe the trade talks about Santana have been heating up, so they wanted Braun to get a bit of action out there? /tinfoil off

Please be true.

[adambr2]

Is Braun's RF defense really bad? I honestly don't even remember. If he's close to the same in LF or RF, it makes sense to keep Yelich in LF when Braun plays the OF.

[markedman5]

Braun playing first again today......Yelich in right

[istanbultaye]

Braun's UZR career for LF is -3.3, and for RF it's -7.6. Santana so far has a -11.8 UZR for his career in RF, and even worse elsewhere. Ryan Braun would probably be a slight upgrade defensively in RF, but considering he's getting older, not sure that it would be enough to make a playing time decision over. Just to add, Christian Yelich was 4.4 UZR in LF, and -5.9 in CF, and Lorenzo Cain is LF 13, CF 22.3, RF 14.5.

 

The most consistent outfield defense would probably be Braun LF, Cain CF, Yelich RF, if you assume Yelich would end up somewhere between his LF and CF defensive rating. With the questions about his arm, it might be best to go with Yelich LF, Cain CF, and whoever in RF, and just try to roll the defense over towards RF more often than not to try to lessen the ground they have to cover over there. (This is purely from a defensive standpoint).

[82brewcrew82]

Braun playing first again today......Yelich in right

I'd hope he'd be playing just about every inning possible at first considering how uncomfortable it is for him.

[Boomer5]

OF WAR tends to have a bit of a glitch when it comes to OF defense. Do we really think GoGo was a 7 WAR player? The contract for Heyward?

 

Yelich dervies much of his value from his D exclusively in LF. He is a flat out bad defender at CF and likely in RF where his one poor tool would be exposed, though he hasn’t played much RF at all. The problem with that is our best overal bat has the same issue. We have two guys who really can only play LF effectively and they just happen to be our two best players when healthy.

 

Braun really needs to become our semi everyday 1B for this current roster to make sense.

[Boomer5]

Braun's UZR career for LF is -3.3, and for RF it's -7.6. Santana so far has a -11.8 UZR for his career in RF, and even worse elsewhere. Ryan Braun would probably be a slight upgrade defensively in RF, but considering he's getting older, not sure that it would be enough to make a playing time decision over. Just to add, Christian Yelich was 4.4 UZR in LF, and -5.9 in CF, and Lorenzo Cain is LF 13, CF 22.3, RF 14.5.

 

The most consistent outfield defense would probably be Braun LF, Cain CF, Yelich RF, if you assume Yelich would end up somewhere between his LF and CF defensive rating. With the questions about his arm, it might be best to go with Yelich LF, Cain CF, and whoever in RF, and just try to roll the defense over towards RF more often than not to try to lessen the ground they have to cover over there. (This is purely from a defensive standpoint).

 

Excellent point. Cain is a tremendous defender but the other 2 are LFers exclusively. We are like a little league team where we will try and hide someone in RF and pray no one hits it there.

[Boomer5]

Tinfoil hat... maybe the trade talks about Santana have been heating up, so they wanted Braun to get a bit of action out there? /tinfoil off

Please be true.

 

Something has to happen because this makes no sense otherwise.

[82brewcrew82]

Tinfoil hat... maybe the trade talks about Santana have been heating up, so they wanted Braun to get a bit of action out there? /tinfoil off

Please be true.

 

Something has to happen because this makes no sense otherwise.

I don't think it HAS to happen but I don't think it will either. I think trading Braun would be the best outcome. Someone mentioned that Braun was starting at first again today. Thing is he's only started about a third of the games there and he's only been getting a couple of AB's in doing so. He hasn't played a lot of first and Thames has played there just as much. Cain and Santana are racking up starts in CF and RF respectively without starts in other positions. Yelich is being moved between LF and RF mostly. Conversely, Braun hasn't started very many games in the OF at all.

 

That looks like Aguilar is the big loser and possibly a hard platoon at first with Braun getting a few starts LF with Cain moving to RF when that happens.

[TJseven7]

He will play a lot at first and share time in the outfield as needed. Unless Santana gets traded obviously.

 

He is going to play regularly some place.....unless he gets hurt again.

I guess I just disagree with the notion that Braun is going to play "a lot" of first. If that thing was going well they wouldn't need to suddenly try and get him AB's in RF.

 

I don't think the RF versatility has anything to do with 1b. We've talked about the defensive plus lf cf with yelich cain and the RF dreg of Santana. 1 alter is braun in LF sliding the other 1 or 2 over when santanas resting. Braun RF could just as easily be yelich in RF doesnt look as clean as hoped. It could be a choice to say, hey we are hiding bad defense at 1b and RF... that's that. The rest will stay elite to cover the weaknesses there.

 

I've been frustrated about having braun on this roster since the LAD non-trade. His bat is the best we have, if not one of them, but his aging glove does us no favors. I've run the roster hundreds of times since then going... "man if we only didn't have Braun." This offseason, he's on the cusp of pulling a 180 in my eyes. Its clay matthews to buck LB all over again. Declining dude, can't do the job required of him where he currently is, so he is moved to a place he'll succeed. I don't like that he's talked of challenges because it seems whiney. I wish he talked of those challenges then taglined it... "but things change, the team needs me to change and I will." He hasn't been that emphatic about it. The moment he drops in an emphatic, "I'm a leader, leaders sacrifice themselves for the good of the whole" then this aging overpaid dude becomes a favorite of mine.

 

Clay was too stupid to do it. He should have been cut the moment he whined his way out of what was right for the team. I hope Braun embraces it, and I also hope there is a silent ultimatum facing him... he makes 1b and RF work, or his times being cut dramatically. Yelich as a whole is our best LF. No questions asked. Braun needs to do whats best for the team. He's said he will, (weakly) but it's time to own it.

 

There are enough concerns floating around about Thames. Durability, old man legs, mental demand of regular playing time, wear and tear, all are real concerns. Brauns best fit is taking starts from thames, covering RF rest, LF rest... CF rest with yelich moving over for those games out of necessity. It doesn't look like a STARTING role, but in truth it is a starting role. One Braun has to embrace. We look at perez as a very valuable player despite a mediocre bat. If Braun can play 3 spots admirably, he's the most valuable player on the roster.

[82brewcrew82]

There are enough concerns floating around about Thames. Durability, old man legs, mental demand of regular playing time, wear and tear, all are real concerns. Brauns best fit is taking starts from thames, covering RF rest, LF rest... CF rest with yelich moving over for those games out of necessity. It doesn't look like a STARTING role, but in truth it is a starting role. One Braun has to embrace. We look at perez as a very valuable player despite a mediocre bat. If Braun can play 3 spots admirably, he's the most valuable player on the roster.

That has been my point all along. He is essentially being moved to a utility role although a limited one. He's phasing into the next part of his career by adapting in order keep going. That doesn't mean he sucks or that he isn't going to play but Yelich, Cain and Santana are gonna play more.

[TJseven7]

There are enough concerns floating around about Thames. Durability, old man legs, mental demand of regular playing time, wear and tear, all are real concerns. Brauns best fit is taking starts from thames, covering RF rest, LF rest... CF rest with yelich moving over for those games out of necessity. It doesn't look like a STARTING role, but in truth it is a starting role. One Braun has to embrace. We look at perez as a very valuable player despite a mediocre bat. If Braun can play 3 spots admirably, he's the most valuable player on the roster.

That has been my point all along. He is essentially being moved to a utility role although a limited one. He's phasing into the next part of his career by adapting in order keep going. That doesn't mean he sucks or that he isn't going to play but Yelich, Cain and Santana are gonna play more.

 

I don't think the traditional terms do it justice though. Going back to my premise, could this an evolution? Sogard and Perez are utility guys. They can cover everywhere. But they aren't seen as guys who should provide replacement level defense. Its a replacement level bat they offer. Brauns the reverse. The goal is a hoped minimal minus at LF, RF and 1b. Defensive replacement level. With a big bat plus. One question, have we seen that? Aguilar had 55 starts. Perez had 60 starts in OF/1b. Backup 1b, utility player. That alone is close to starters work though. Thanes could stand to play a touch less as well.

 

Cross sports: Look to the houston rockets. Paul is a starter and star. Same with Harden. Is Gordon a backup role player? Or has Houston placed a superior value on 1-2 and a lower value at 3-4. Stack 1-2... function at an elite level there for a full 48 and use that to anchor your offensive success. Allows you to play role players on offense at 3-5. In the same light, mke has an overloaded 5 starters at OF 1b... to anchor offensive production for a full (close) 162 while putting lower offensive priority on 2b SS C 3b.... needing merely 1 of 4 to contribute at a high level.

 

Same goes for STARTER as used by the NFL. Your starting 11 doesn't preclude your non-starting slot wr from getting 80% of snaps or your nickel corner from 75% of snaps despite not playing in your base set. Starter on paper, doesn't mean anything in those circumstances. You've even seen programming start to list off OL qb and offensive weapons... calling ingram and kamara both starters... sometimes listing more than 11 players as starters. Respecting usage over depth chart.

 

So doomed for blunder and extinction, soon to be fad, or new normal... is this use of Braun an accidental (possibly but unlikely planned) evolution? Braun is less of a bench player than Thames. He's not a true utility player as they tend to be defensive minded. He can play starter level starts, while not being deemed a starter at any spot. So he's Eric Gordon. What is that? A 9th man? Have we seen this before?

 

Starting Braun in right allows cain to start every game in CF. Limits yelich moving to CF. As pointed out Braun might be a better defender in RF than Santana. All 4 keeps junk out of the OF. Gives thames ample rest or even shuffles him to a lhb platoon guy. When all is said and done... all 4 OF might be our starters by workload qualifications.

 

It's not a slight to Braun. Calling him a utility player is though. It's more challenging and if he pulls it off with a minimal defensive negative showing he becomes much more valuable. What term fits that?

 

As for yelich cain santana playing more.

Yelich 152. Hes young elite and he averages 10 rest days. He's supposed to play a lot. 10 LF games for Braun ideally.

Cain started 151 games in CF last year. That was his career peak. He has injury issues at times so it's optimistic to assume 145 starts in CF. Still leaves 17 starts where yelich moves to CF and Braun in LF ideally. Up to 27.

Santana had his first mostly healthy year. Injury concerns are there. He had 144 appearances in RF. Braun takes the rest. Up to 45.

 

So is Braun playing more than them... no. But hes the oldest most injury prone of the bunch. Now 1b you'd expect roughly 95 starts vs rhp...67 vs lhp. Braun takes the 67 now up to 112 starts. DH games also add starts. Injuries to the big 5 (not braun) add starts. 120 starts for Braun isn't short changing him 1 bit. Its managing him. He's more of a starter than Thames though.

 

If the goal is a metrics based need for 5 runs per game and we've concluded we do not have the ability to produce the numbers needed to achieve that goal from 2b SS C 3b this year... it would make sense to spike 4th OF to compensate for that difficency. That could change with a return of good villar, a coming of age for arcia or the hiura era allowing the team to shift RF from Santana to Phillips... but until we can pull in a middle who can jump the offenses production, here we are.

[Brewer Fever]

Nah.

[istanbultaye]

I've been frustrated about having braun on this roster since the LAD non-trade. His bat is the best we have, if not one of them, but his aging glove does us no favors. I've run the roster hundreds of times since then going... "man if we only didn't have Braun." This offseason, he's on the cusp of pulling a 180 in my eyes. Its clay matthews to buck LB all over again. Declining dude, can't do the job required of him where he currently is, so he is moved to a place he'll succeed. I don't like that he's talked of challenges because it seems whiney. I wish he talked of those challenges then taglined it... "but things change, the team needs me to change and I will." He hasn't been that emphatic about it. The moment he drops in an emphatic, "I'm a leader, leaders sacrifice themselves for the good of the whole" then this aging overpaid dude becomes a favorite of mine.

 

If I saw a player said something as sanctimonious as that, I would be incredibly turned off to them. I don't see how someone talking about a position change having some challenges can even remotely be considered complaining. It's not like he's said "I really don't like 1b", or "I should be the main LF" or any junk like that. I guess saying "I'm sacrificing myself for the team" is more or less the same as "I'll play wherever they need me", but it just sounds a lot worse to me.

[JosephC]

 

So is Braun playing more than them... no. But hes the oldest most injury prone of the bunch. Now 1b you'd expect roughly 95 starts vs rhp...67 vs lhp. Braun takes the 67 now up to 112 starts. DH games also add starts. Injuries to the big 5 (not braun) add starts. 120 starts for Braun isn't short changing him 1 bit. Its managing him. He's more of a starter than Thames though.

 

 

Anybody have a current breakdown of expected lefty/righty starter breakdowns? Projecting the Brewers to face lefty starters over 40% of the time seems high.

 

http://www.vocativ.com/315557/left-handed-pitchers-disappearing/index.html