1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy

[TJseven7]

Well I think they would like to trade Santana and Broxton, let Braun play in right and let Thames and Aguilar play 1st. The issue is that GM's know that the brewers need to do something and I can't see them getting equal return back. Phillips is a great 4th OF, Broxton would be a fine backup too, but I can't see Santana in AAA or on the bench and Braun already has expressed his displeasure of playing 1st base, so I can't see him not not being in the OF on opening day.

 

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun. But because that isn't going to happen, they are stuck square-pegging him into right field or 1B. I kind of think they'd love an outfield of Yelich/Cain/Phillips, but unless they find a way to wholesale offload guys, that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they were trying to flip Santana, Broxton and Aguilar. They could trade all of them, and still have plenty of depth.

 

Flipping Santana, Broxton, and Aguilar would solve many of the ills.

 

Sadly, Phillips has looked completely lost this spring, so I imagine that might give Stearns some pause.

 

That said, I'm surprised an AL team hasnt made a decent offer for Aguilar.

 

Ills? Having stacked OF depth in AAA is an ill? Having 5 offense lifting bats who can take up 4 of the top 5 spots in the order nearly every day, removing much of the need for villar pina arcia to contribute, is an ill? Aguilar is getting this team a ticket or nothing. Broxton is a traditional 4th OF emergency starter... not valuable. Santana isn't fetching a big asset after what the TB firesale on OF showed us.

 

What ill does it solve... being uncomfortable that we have talent in this team?

 

Look above. See the PA break down? What Ill do they cause? 2 guys who are not worth a damn thing and a 4th stud OF bat playing instead of all that crap isn't a negative.

[wildcat2237]

 

Ills? Having stacked OF depth in AAA is an ill? Having 5 offense lifting bats who can take up 4 of the top 5 spots in the order nearly every day, removing much of the need for villar pina arcia to contribute, is an ill? Aguilar is getting this team a ticket or nothing. Broxton is a traditional 4th OF emergency starter... not valuable. Santana isn't fetching a big asset after what the TB firesale on OF showed us.

 

What ill does it solve... being uncomfortable that we have talent in this team?

 

Look above. See the PA break down? What Ill do they cause? 2 guys who are not worth a damn thing and a 4th stud OF bat playing instead of all that crap isn't a negative.

 

The Brewers are looking to compete in 2018, the Cain signing and Yelich trade are unequivocal proof.

 

Entering the season, the Brewers have three solid starting pitchers, 1. Anderson 2. Chacin, 3. Davis. The final two spots are a complete crap shoot.

 

The Brewers currently have 8 outfielders and first basemen for four spots. (Thames, Aguilar, Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana, Broxton, Philips). Thats not even counting Choi and Wren.

 

That's a roster mess in my opinion.

 

If we were rebuilding then fine, throw Miley, Gallardo, Suter against the wall and see what sticks. Maintain an outfield surplus and trade if the right deal comes along.

 

However, if your hoping to contend you cant have a glut of good outfielders and a rotation that is one injury or regression from disaster. It makes no sense.

 

In all seriousness, this rotation could blow up in Stearns face in a big way if Anderson or Davies regress, if an iniury occurs, or if the 4-5 spots are a disaster. There is absolutely no margin for error.

 

Bottom line: The outfield glut is not mutually exclusive. A team that is solid all around can afford to have good depth at one position. However, if you have shaky spots it makes no sense to have huge depth at another. We cant play 8 outfielders/1B's at one time. I might physically puke if we maintain this outfield glut and Wade Miley is out there impersonating Tommy Milone.

[TJseven7]

Zero argument on the starters. I've run the numbers on that in the cobb thread and starters stats thread. I understand what's needed, where we are and where we can't afford to step back. It's asking a lot as is. I'm a cobb advocate due to that.

 

We have 5 guys for 4 slots at OF and 1b. Phillips is stashed, riding the pine isn't worth a call up. Broxton Aguilar should not be on your list. They are depth and our offense can't hit the runs count we need wasting power position ABs on depth. We need impact from all 3 OF and 1b every game to protect arcia villar pina. Wren is 4A as is Choi. They should not be on your list. They are emergency depth.

 

No combination of Santana Broxton Aguilar in trade will solidify the rotation. If we could get a good arm for them I'm fairly certain it would have happened.

 

The roster that you call a mess is actually incredibly stacked for offensive success. Concerns over 4-5 or the amount of pressure this staff puts on Anderson Davies Chacin, I can't help you with that. We need to hit 5 runs a game to rattle wash chi lad az. That we can do with this group. The problem is that we are hopes and prayers or 1 impact arm (3.6 era) from tilting the staff to where it needs to be. As is, yeah we are playing with fire, or at the very least making it gard on ourselves. A 3.6 inning carrying arm added into this mess and it falls into place. But you aren't getting that for a ww 1b, 4th OF and a defense poor slugger.

 

I dream, like you do, on yelich cain phillips OF post santana (braun 1b some OF)... but to hold our offensive level we need Hiura producing at 2b. Otherwise its too big of risk to the offense. Phillips villar limp, pina arcia stagnate and the O falters. Hiura is that bat plus 2b who opens that defensive plus OF.

[trwi7]

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun.

 

If only some team had been interested in him in say, August 2016.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun.

 

If only some team had been interested in him in say, August 2016.

 

And if I could play hindsight armchair GM, I'd win a World Series every year.

[Boomer5]

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun.

 

If only some team had been interested in him in say, August 2016.

 

Well how could any GM see that a career PED user would regress as he got clean and aged?

[sveumrules]

Based on public statements by Stearns the intention is for the entire roster to resemble the current 1B/OF situation by having multiple legitimate options at each spot. We aren't there yet, but it seems we're farther along at this point than most would have imagined at the time of his hire.

 

Phillips & Broxton have options. It's a good thing to have legitimate depth at AAA. Aguilar had a nice year last season, but the reason we got him on waivers in the first place is because RH 1B is thee most saturated market in the game.

 

Last season the Brewers were a top 4 NL rotation by both FIP & runs allowed based WAR. No one foresaw that before the season. Writing off this year's rotation before the season starts, especially with guys like Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta as reinforcements (& Nelson at some point) should the 4/5 options falter or when the inevitable injuries occur seems premature.

 

No amount of moves this offseason was going to vault us into the Dodgers/Cubs/Nationals tier of teams. I believe the moves that have been made have jumped us up from surprise WC contenders to legit WC contenders, which was realistically the most we could expect.

[adambr2]

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun.

 

If only some team had been interested in him in say, August 2016.

 

And if I could play hindsight armchair GM, I'd win a World Series every year.

 

I think a pretty vocal portion of us were quite adamant after it came out that we almost traded Braun that we really wished it had gotten done when the chance was there.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think a pretty vocal portion of us were quite adamant after it came out that we almost traded Braun that we really wished it had gotten done when the chance was there.

 

Yep, you're right. I have a feeling Stearns may be kicking himself over that non-move. But what's done is done (or in this case, not done). You figure things out and move forward.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well I think they would like to trade Santana and Broxton, let Braun play in right and let Thames and Aguilar play 1st. The issue is that GM's know that the brewers need to do something and I can't see them getting equal return back. Phillips is a great 4th OF, Broxton would be a fine backup too, but I can't see Santana in AAA or on the bench and Braun already has expressed his displeasure of playing 1st base, so I can't see him not not being in the OF on opening day.

 

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun. But because that isn't going to happen, they are stuck square-pegging him into right field or 1B. I kind of think they'd love an outfield of Yelich/Cain/Phillips, but unless they find a way to wholesale offload guys, that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they were trying to flip Santana, Broxton and Aguilar. They could trade all of them, and still have plenty of depth.

 

I think in a perfect world, they would like to trade Braun, Santana, and Broxton. All 3. Braun due to contract, and Santana/Broxton due to high K, lower OBP type of hitters and pretty bad defense from all 3 (very bad in the case of Santana.)

 

But this is what we've got. There will be stretches when someone isn't getting the ABs they should be getting when everyone is healthy, there will be stretches when it works itself out due to injuries. I have no doubt DS thought he could flip Santana for a deal he likes, or at least could live with. That didn't happen, and here we are.

 

Not the worst thing in the world, not ideal. Being a huge Phillips fan, I really wanted him starting in RF. But I have to admit, it doesn't look like he's ready anyhow. The only real loss in all this is Aguilar, and they may find a way to keep him on the 25 if even for a week, and shuffle him down to AAA.

 

If Braun can stay relatively healthy and have a good season, there could very well be an opportunity to move him again in August. Only two years left on his contract at that point, and would look more optimistic that he could play up to his contract.

[clancyphile]

I think in a perfect world, they would like to trade Braun, Santana, and Broxton. All 3. Braun due to contract, and Santana/Broxton due to high K, lower OBP type of hitters and pretty bad defense from all 3 (very bad in the case of Santana.)

 

But this is what we've got. There will be stretches when someone isn't getting the ABs they should be getting when everyone is healthy, there will be stretches when it works itself out due to injuries. I have no doubt DS thought he could flip Santana for a deal he likes, or at least could live with. That didn't happen, and here we are.

 

Not the worst thing in the world, not ideal. Being a huge Phillips fan, I really wanted him starting in RF. But I have to admit, it doesn't look like he's ready anyhow. The only real loss in all this is Aguilar, and they may find a way to keep him on the 25 if even for a week, and shuffle him down to AAA.

 

If Braun can stay relatively healthy and have a good season, there could very well be an opportunity to move him again in August. Only two years left on his contract at that point, and would look more optimistic that he could play up to his contract.

 

I think of it a little differently: We get a year, at least, to let Phillips up his game, let Broxton get ABs to maybe develop better OBP skills, and to see if Stokes can take another step forward, with Wren as the 4th OF in Colorado Springs.

 

Braun/Santana/Yelich/Cain/Thames make for a good OF/1B rotation. I've run numbers before, but I think that with off days, minor dings and such, the roster is good.

 

The worst case scenario is seeing Aguilar get claimed off waivers. That said, if they keep him for the first week, I think there is a very good chance the Crew could get him to Colorado Springs - and if a deal happens, they can make that magic work.

 

If Broxton/Aguilar kill it in Colorado Springs, the Crew can pull off the same kinda deal they did with Cordell and get some help elsewhere if players falter.

 

That said, if 2017 hadn't been a near-playoff run, would we be freaking out about getting a TOR guy, or one of the Darvish/Cobb/Lynn free agents, or hoping to acquire Archer? I think not. I think 2017 and 2018 were to be years to try and find out who could be contributors. The Brewers just found some real good ones, and there are some folks who in 2018 deserve a bit of longer look - like Suter and Woodruff in the rotation.

[Jopal78]

While he may have some intrinsic value in the clubhouse, Aguilar as a player might be overvalued by the posters on this forum. Mark Reynolds and Mike Napoli remain unsigned. The difference between those two players and Jesus Aguilar is not that significant that another team will likely be willing to give up a player to acquire Aguilar. Jesus isn't exactly young, and doesn't bring an expansive skill set. While it is possible a rebuilding team claims him on waivers to fill in for a year or two, it is also possible that he goes unclaimed and he goes down to AAA.

[Brewer Fever]

Soo close to hitting submit on a flame response to these responses but I'll try something softer. YW mods.

 

You know WHY I looked up all these numbers, and why I wrote this all out? I'm a Front Office dork. I am facinated by the strategy behind roster composition, cap schemes, value measurements, value skews etc etc etc. My sport is football, I like baseball but more than both I like constructing/deconstrction schools of thought to see why they work or why they don't. How they can be improved. What is next or at least could be.

 

I don't do it to get a dozen broken record spiels, or suggestions that we should take a path no small market team can afford, or nit picked on sky is falling possibilities that can upend any possible configuaration. I don't do this to hear, it wont work, when I've run down all the numbers that shows how it can fit.

 

I do this to evoke thought, discussion, an exchange of ideas, suggestions on how to exploit the valuations of the place is the cycle that we are currently in. You know, deep nerd fanatic scheme warping fun stuff.

 

If no one here cares for that stuff, I'll stop wasting my time. If you don't care to contribute something of worth to the subject at hand, throw your tweet responses in another thread.

 

Maybe people aren't jumping at the chance to applaud your premise because it has some flaws? Just throwing that out there as a possibility. And to be perfectly honest, I hesitate to pat you on the back for stating something that was already kind of obvious. Every team values all around players, especially those who can handle the bat and the glove at the top of the defensive spectrum. And not so shockingly, that means there's value to be found in the many, many all hit - no glove guys who help cheaply fill out a roster. Your flaw, (in my opinion) is thinking Stearns wants to have a lot of these guys on his roster. I think he's trying to find guys to demonstrate trade-able value or get the team through a season with quality at bats at a low price. And sometimes both. But make no mistake, I think the end goal is to litter this club with as many all-around players as possible. I think a small market club always has a need to fill out the roster with cheap bats. But I highly doubt Stearns enjoys having as many of these all-hit, no glove guys as we have right now. It just takes time to acquire guys who can do both. In the meantime they're cheap alternatives, not guys you're wanting to build an offense around.

[Brewer Fever]

Accumulating a bunch of 1B/Of types would be a sound way to start an expansion team, not one with aspirations of someday contending for championships. You could conceivably have all hit no glove castoffs at the corner spots and give them all 500+ plate appearances. Then watch them put up the .800+ OPS we all know they're fully capable of. Then look to capitalize on their value by flipping them to a team that feels its a bat away from getting over the hump. Heck, that's practically summing up the Doug Melvin era.

[homer]

Accumulating a bunch of 1B/Of types would be a sound way to start an expansion team, not one with aspirations of someday contending for championships. You could conceivably have all hit no glove castoffs at the corner spots and give them all 500+ plate appearances. Then watch them put up the .800+ OPS we all know they're fully capable of. Then look to capitalize on their value by flipping them to a team that feels its a bat away from getting over the hump. Heck, that's practically summing up the Doug Melvin era.[/quote

 

 

I miss Matt Stairs.

[TJseven7]

Soo close to hitting submit on a flame response to these responses but I'll try something softer. YW mods.

 

You know WHY I looked up all these numbers, and why I wrote this all out? I'm a Front Office dork. I am facinated by the strategy behind roster composition, cap schemes, value measurements, value skews etc etc etc. My sport is football, I like baseball but more than both I like constructing/deconstrction schools of thought to see why they work or why they don't. How they can be improved. What is next or at least could be.

 

I don't do it to get a dozen broken record spiels, or suggestions that we should take a path no small market team can afford, or nit picked on sky is falling possibilities that can upend any possible configuaration. I don't do this to hear, it wont work, when I've run down all the numbers that shows how it can fit.

 

I do this to evoke thought, discussion, an exchange of ideas, suggestions on how to exploit the valuations of the place is the cycle that we are currently in. You know, deep nerd fanatic scheme warping fun stuff.

 

If no one here cares for that stuff, I'll stop wasting my time. If you don't care to contribute something of worth to the subject at hand, throw your tweet responses in another thread.

 

Maybe people aren't jumping at the chance to applaud your premise because it has some flaws? Just throwing that out there as a possibility. And to be perfectly honest, I hesitate to pat you on the back for stating something that was already kind of obvious. Every team values all around players, especially those who can handle the bat and the glove at the top of the defensive spectrum. And not so shockingly, that means there's value to be found in the many, many all hit - no glove guys who help cheaply fill out a roster. Your flaw, (in my opinion) is thinking Stearns wants to have a lot of these guys on his roster. I think he's trying to find guys to demonstrate trade-able value or get the team through a season with quality at bats at a low price. And sometimes both. But make no mistake, I think the end goal is to litter this club with as many all-around players as possible. I think a small market club always has a need to fill out the roster with cheap bats. But I highly doubt Stearns enjoys having as many of these all-hit, no glove guys as we have right now. It just takes time to acquire guys who can do both. In the meantime they're cheap alternatives, not guys you're wanting to build an offense around.

 

No applause needed, (more of that beloved bf snark we love here) scheme discussion would be nice. Premise is about carrying your offense through your OF because its cheaper to do. It's not about all bat no glove... its about devaluing 1b, and treating a 4th OF/1b as a starter. Building an offense around 4 OF who can play all 3 OF slots every day and 1b a good chunk of the time allowing 1b to be a cheap platoon mate, and to take pressure off 2b SS 3b C only requiring 1 upper level bat betweem the 4 spots because those spots are more expensive.

 

Traditionally you have a 4th OF who isnt very good. Traditionally you dumpster dive twice at 1b. You try to get quality at C 2b SS CF. Those 4 up the middle don't come cheap... or at the very least cost more than even multi positional OF. If you want to improve your offense and dont have the funds to buy high level middle IF guys you could overload OF.

 

All rest in the OF going to a decent bat, and 2 platoons splitting 1b requires 1 extra roster spot and plays 3 guys who aren't very good often. If you quad the OF and 1 can play 1b... you play 1 platoon mate at 1b who isn't very good.

 

Thats the premise. Defense 1st C 2b SS up the middle. Use 4 OF to carry 3.5 spots in the lineup very frequently. Leaving the other .5 for a cheap platoon 1b. Attempt to exploit cheaper OF market and freebie 1b platoon market.

 

Lets say we had yelich cain santana. Could trade thames. Would it be best to go with a lind aguilar broxton for 1b ab and OF rest... or add a good 1b/OF combo player and aguilar or lind to platoon. 1 less roster spot... more expensive but could that expense be used in a way to impact the team in a greater way? It would be cheaper than an impact bat at 2b ss or catcher. It would be cheaper than an impact pitcher.

 

It doesnt make sense to me that we care about limiting pitcher abs because of offensive impact but we dont care about the impact we spit up playing a lot of slop over the course of the season.

[bork]

All these discussions about the OF logjam and something occurred to me. What's the over/under on the number of OF starts Counsel will give to Perez or someone other than Braun, Yelich, Cain or Santana? More than a handful I would guess.

 

And the over/under on the number of games where 2 or 3 out of Perez, Villar and Sogard will all start?

[TJseven7]

All these discussions about the OF logjam and something occurred to me. What's the over/under on the number of OF starts Counsel will give to Perez or someone other than Braun, Yelich, Cain or Santana? More than a handful I would guess.

 

And the over/under on the number of games where 2 or 3 out of Perez, Villar and Sogard will all start?

 

Well he had over 50 last year. Thats real bad. If there is an injury to an OF you figure phillips or broxton come up and thames expands his role so you shouldn't see many there. If thames goes down you see choi or aguilar if they are still in the system so he shouldn't have many there. Truly it shouldn't happen (or at least less than 5) baring multiple injuries.

 

Sogard perez villar will see 2 in the lineup on arcia shaw rest/injury days. 3 shouldn't happen baring multiple injuries.

 

And none should bat higher than 5.

 

That's the positive of this.

[82brewcrew82]

The more I think about this the more I think Braun is the odd man out here. If Santana hits like he did last year, he is going to play everyday. The move to first for Braun is working out about as I expected which means only a few AB's there. That means probably both Broxton and Phillips to AAA and Aguilar sticks.

 

I think this is the team transitioning Braun to the next phase of his career without being overly public/obvious about it.

[pacopete4]

486 outfield games total (3 OF positions)

10 games DH total

162 games 1B total

 

*Only includes starts. Plenty of pinch hitting for these guys too.

**Used 4.5 PA’s as an average per game.

 

Braun: 50-1B, 8-DH, 65-OF= 123 games (about 550 plate appearances)

Thames: 112-1B, 2-DH= 114 games (about 510 plate appearances)

Yelich: 150- OF (about 675 plate appearances)

Cain: 140- OF (about 630 plate appearances)

Santana: 130- OF (about 600 plate appearances)

 

If they can squeeze out anymore games at 1B for Braun (due to him playing well there or Thames injury/sucking) then the numbers for Santana can go up. And these are only starts. Plenty of pinch opportunities for them all. Also, I used 50 games at 1B because that’s what Counsell mentioned they’d like to get out of him there.

 

Obviously all this changes if/when injuries occur but I’d be all for this if it worked out this way.

[homer]

486 outfield games total (3 OF positions)

10 games DH total

162 games 1B total

 

*Only includes starts. Plenty of pinch hitting for these guys too.

**Used 4.5 PA’s as an average per game.

 

Braun: 50-1B, 8-DH, 65-OF= 123 games (about 550 plate appearances)

Thames: 112-1B, 2-DH= 114 games (about 510 plate appearances)

Yelich: 150- OF (about 675 plate appearances)

Cain: 140- OF (about 630 plate appearances)

Santana: 130- OF (about 600 plate appearances)

 

If they can squeeze out anymore games at 1B for Braun (due to him playing well there or Thames injury/sucking) then the numbers for Santana can go up. And these are only starts. Plenty of pinch opportunities for them all. Also, I used 50 games at 1B because that’s what Counsell mentioned they’d like to get out of him there.

 

Obviously all this changes if/when injuries occur but I’d be all for this if it worked out this way.

 

Thanks for doing the math. I was wondering how that would work out.

 

So filling in the blanks you then have Broxton/Phillips/Aguillar. I'm going to assume one guy goes to AAA, one guy backups up the OFers, and one guy is sent packing. This is only if Braun proves capable at 1B.

[Brewer Fever]

The more I think about this the more I think Braun is the odd man out here.

 

In my mind, it's clear the odd man out is Thames. He's every bit as fragile as Braun, if not moreso when the mental aspect is factored, and he's nowhere near the hitter. The lengths they're going to have Braun learn 1B tells me they want him in the lineup over Thames.

[timpep]

The only problem I see with all of this, as Bork stated above, CC is going to give Perez plenty of starts in the outfield.

 

I mean, if Braun plays 123 games that almost assumes a trip to the DL right? During that trip Perez will be the backup 1b and the 4th OF, during that time he'll probably get 2 or 3 starts a week.

 

Even if nobody misses time and things work out "perfectly" a roster construction plan that ends up giving guys like Santana, Yelich, Braun and Cain less at bats that Villar and potentially around the same number as Perez just seems ... poorly thought out.

[homer]

The only problem I see with all of this, as Bork stated above, CC is going to give Perez plenty of starts in the outfield.

 

I mean, if Braun plays 123 games that almost assumes a trip to the DL right? During that trip Perez will be the backup 1b and the 4th OF, during that time he'll probably get 2 or 3 starts a week.

 

Even if nobody misses time and things work out "perfectly" a roster construction plan that ends up giving guys like Santana, Yelich, Braun and Cain less at bats that Villar and potentially around the same number as Perez just seems ... poorly thought out.

 

 

Welcome to the board!

[pacopete4]

The only problem I see with all of this, as Bork stated above, CC is going to give Perez plenty of starts in the outfield.

 

I mean, if Braun plays 123 games that almost assumes a trip to the DL right? During that trip Perez will be the backup 1b and the 4th OF, during that time he'll probably get 2 or 3 starts a week.

 

Even if nobody misses time and things work out "perfectly" a roster construction plan that ends up giving guys like Santana, Yelich, Braun and Cain less at bats that Villar and potentially around the same number as Perez just seems ... poorly thought out.

 

-Why would CC give starts to Perez in the OF? If he does this over the four he has on our roster, he should be fired on the spot and I'm not kidding. He may end up playing out there based on in-game substitutions or seasons injuries but if there are no injuries out there, there is no reason for him to be out there. He is an emergency OF on this team. That's it. Period.

 

-Braun, even if no DL, can sit out 1 every 4-5 games. It would help him in the long run of the season.

 

-Are you expecting Villar to start all 162 games? Because I don't think anyone is. Villar (if playing well) will probably log about 130 games this season due to certain matchups as we have Perez and Sogard on this roster as well. Perez and Sogard will also help relieve Shaw and Arica, keeping those guys involved this season.