1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy

[TJseven7]

In reference to another team having a 1b/of logjam and not needing broxton or aguilar 82brewcrew82 stated a sarcastic:

"DUH! Stearns has created a trend. 1B/OF log jams are all the rage now. Everyone wants one."

 

I responded:

Lol... until it works

 

Which got me thinking... should it be "all the rage." Humor me.

 

1 PA at 1b/OF we stand to replace. (1b/OF ONLY)

Broxton 448

Perez 279

Franklin 48

Brinson 49

Kirk 23

Villar 20

Total: 867 pa

 

Thames another 85 pa of defensive ewww in the OF...952

 

And the non-negative pa of:

Aguilar 233

Phillips 91

 

Note that's 1276 PA at OF and 1b. In the last 3 years Braun's average has been 497 an increase of 95 pa over last year. Cain's average over 3 years is an added 554. Yelich last year an incredible 694. 1343 pa added. With nearly ideal health Thames loses 152 pa at 1b and OF... if DH/PH holds constant you can expect him to get 400 pa. Both should increase slightly. That fits pretty well. Even with health.

 

2. Over abundance: It's a common phrase on every scouting profile. His bat will hold more value if he doesn't slide down the defensive spectrum. They often do. Mlb bats with poor defense get shuffled towards LF 1B and some RF. (As do old players) Teams refuse to wait for the defense to catch up, or their defense simply fails them. It creates a glut specifically at the corner OF positions, 1b and depreciates value. An example, Adam Lind is old yet hit rhp to a clip of 303/364/898. He recieved a minor league deal. Santana has poor trade value, Souza was had for a song, Dickerson basically thrown away.

 

3. Scarcity. It's a simple fact. SS C 2B CF 3B in that order are weak offensive positions. You don't find many who can carry the stress of the defensive position and carry strong offensive numbers. Another example (there are better examples but off the top of my head) Cain despite playing near GG CF the last 3 years which is the top of the OF defensive spectrum was paid 16 mil per to the age of 37. His Owar nearly matches what Machado produced the last 3 years. Machado's going to get double that price tag... and maybe even 10 years taking him 35. Trout's getting paid like that. 9+ owar player yearly. Harper too due to his 9 owar year at 22 and they aren't bad defenders. Machados around 5 owar. Can a small market afford that?

 

4) Defense is back in style: See santana souza dickerson etc. Teams are after OFs who effect the game on defense as well as offense but still their value is not close to SS C 2b 3b who create the same outcome offensively. However, good defenders in the OF usually can play more than 1 position at an acceptable level. Cain can play all 3, yelich can manage in CF. Santana we'll call him a RF. Braun looks to be LF and hopefully an acceptable 1b and RF. No matter how you slice it, teams are after defense plus OF and those folks can man multiple OF positions.

 

5) Changing times: NL 8 man pen. What spot is most likely to get dropped? Back up 1b. Most backup 1b options are not multi-positional. If they are they probably can't hit. Multi-positional is all the rage... especially here.

 

So what makes the most fiscal sense via FA... or via prospect capitol?

 

First I'd propose avoiding 1b/LF only prospects in the draft. Duh! Let those spots be filled by players who fall down the defensive spectrum into the glut. Hitting on a SS C 2b is a huge get for your franchise. Elite players at those spots are pieces a small market won't be able to keep. (Bye machado, good luck to hou on altuve)

 

Secondly, with a scarcity of elite bats at SS C 2b it would be wise to not expect one to come your way. Or at least not build a structure depending on one for your success. That's why we are/were dreaming on Hiura and Diaz. Why we hope Arcia continues his accent. Why we pray for Villar. Why some here are rabid over Mejia. We know that's the only way we are getting one. To structure a team to produce well enough offensively while not counting on more than 1 upper level bat at SS C 2B 3B... maybe a little creativity is in order.

 

Something like...

A GG LF who can moonlight in CF

A near GG CF who can play all 3

A RF or LF with 1b versatility

A good old fashioned clubber lane RF or LF

A platoon mate 1b because they are basically free

 

Use the 4 slots where you can acquire offensive and defensive quality (from cheaper to cheap) to carry the offense every. single. day. No lull. Stacking the top of the order. Let that allow 3 of your 4 at SS C 2b 3b to be defensive minded players that contribute on offense admirably. I'm not saying this was the objective. Santanas market could have tripped us into it, but...

 

On a cost v production basis, a prospect capitol per acquisition basis, maybe its exploiting a talent glut that depreciates values. Maybe its brilliant. Maybe it should be all the rage.

[coolhandluke121]

The problem with this is you can't actually divvy up the plate appearances on the field like you can on paper. The timing of when guys get hurt or need rest doesn't care about your best-laid plans. Neither do platoon needs or pitching match-ups. The way many people are divvying up at-bats and rationalizing the log-jam is too dependent on everything going your way. For example, saying Braun usually misses 30 games and Cain misses 20... but what if some of those games are at the same time? What if it's a day game and Braun needs rest for his back, but they're facing an LHP? All the plate appearances won't just neatly sort themselves into the little boxes many people are putting them in.

 

Cain and Yelich are the best players on the team and should play whenever they can. Braun, Santana, and Thames are all candidates to regress and/or get hurt, which would take care of the log-jam. Braun can hit RHB's well enough to play a lot of 1B if Thames bombs. That might be the most likely way it works itself out. A Santana trade is also possible. And don't discount the importance of PH'ing and double switches, which I think we'll see a lot of given their rotation make-up. But this is still far from optimal and I will be doing cartwheels if they swing a good Santana or Braun trade before opening day.

[FVBrewerFan]

These things are cyclical. As years go by, certain position/ type of player are coveted by most teams. We've seen that in recent years with late inning relief pitchers. We're seeing it now with higher OBP/defense being more valuable than Slugging.

 

So I do think that creates opportunity. You can get a positive WAR player like Carter, Aguilar, etc. for almost nothing. That's good value.

 

Ideally, the Brewers can build a more stable bullpen over the next couple year with guys who can pitch multiple inning, thereby eliminating the need for an 8 man pen. When you step back and look at it, that is a lot of roster spots. It would be great to add another bat like Aguilar or Choi that costs almost nothing.

[TJseven7]

Luke I completely understand the hangup when going from theory to practice. Maybe its not a clean 162. Maybe its 150...130. The goal is to be ideal as much as possible.

 

You are going to hit some spots. If you hit 1... you still got 5 most days. If you hit 2... 4s ok. Captain catch all is on that list loosing 50+ games worth of PA. Maybe his don't get trimmed the full 279 PA. Still takes out about 700 pa I'll nicely refer to as sub-optimal. That's removing a full seasons worth of garbage pas from our lineup.

 

8 man pen is likely 4-5 uncertainty driven. A no one on the roster is likely to average 6 ip per start issue. If Nelson comes back to lift innings, and peralta can create a wipe out duo with hader, and suter can move to being a very good long man then a 7 man pen is far easier to do. I have a few thoughts about pen value. Another time.

[Oxy]

I agree with what you are saying, except that we are paying a premium for Braun--and while Yelich isn't expensive, after this year he isn't cheap either. So it's not like we are taking advantage of the glut in the market by getting cheap production at the corners.

 

I totally agree with that as a roster building strategy though. The team should be anchored by the 4 up the middle defensive positions and the starting rotation. If you are going to spend premium cash, I think those are the places it should be spent. Fill in the corner spots and the bullpen with young guys and cheap guys.

 

That's why Cain was signed. We definitely needed more stability in the 4 premium up the middle defensive positions. With Arcia and Cain we should be set at 2 of those positions for the next 3 years, anyway.

 

Part of me was looking forward to a Broxton/Phillips platoon in center, but that could have been disastrous. I wish we had a Phillips caliber prospect at catcher and 2b to back up/platoon with Pina and Villar. Those could end up being a black hole in the lineup. Or Pina and Villar could be borderline all-stars.

[Jopal78]

There really isn't a log jam. In 2018 the Brewers have 8 games in AL parks using the DH. On top of that even when healthy it is rare that Braun plays more than 10 games in a row. If that holds true in 2018 that's another 16 games or more (That is 15% of the games right there). Now figure in the fact that Thames was frequently rested against LH pitching in 2017. If they rest Cain periodically then the number of available at bats continues to grow.

 

Aguilar might have to make his money as the primary pinch hitter in 2018, but I think they'll easily be able to get 450 at bats or more for: Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana and Thames.

[markedman5]

If they have an 8 man pen I don't see how there is room for Aguilar.

 

13 pitchers

 

8 starters

 

Bench of Catcher, Perez, Thames and Sogard.

 

That's 25....

 

May be able to delay the decision for awhile though

 

[82brewcrew82]

Someone once told me that if you're explaining, you're losing. Every time someone tries to rationalize this roster it ends up being a whole lot of explaining. I agree with Luke, this is not going to go the way you think it is going to go.

[Boomer5]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

[istanbultaye]

I believe there was a year where a GM constructed a roster that had 3 washed up shortstops manning first base. I like this situation a lot better than that.

[Brewer Fever]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

 

Yep that's the only explanation

[82brewcrew82]

I believe there was a year where a GM constructed a roster that had 3 washed up shortstops manning first base. I like this situation a lot better than that.

I hear ya but the "it could be worse" argument doesn't really make me feel better.

[82brewcrew82]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

 

Yep that's the only explanation

It's not like the other ones are all that appealing.

[patrickgpe]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

I agree, I don't think there is no way the brewers sign Cain unless they think they could trade an Outfielder or 2 for a SP. Braun to 1st base isn't happening I think, so they really are in a pickle.

[patrickgpe]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

 

Yep that's the only explanation

what else could it be? Just wondering. They have 6 starting caliber outfielders, granted half with options but still.

[wildcat2237]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

I agree, I don't think there is no way the brewers sign Cain unless they think they could trade an Outfielder or 2 for a SP. Braun to 1st base isn't happening I think, so they really are in a pickle.

 

I agree with 82brew, Boomer5, and patrickgpe. Something has got to give.

 

Maybe they trade Aguilar, maybe they trade Thames, maybe they trade Santana.

 

Phlliips and Broxton can go to AAA, but I think one of Thames, Aguilar or Santana has to go. Just no roster space for all these guys.

[patrickgpe]

The NL doesn't have the DH therefore Stearns thought he had a trade that didn't work out.

 

No one would have built a roster like this on purpose.

I agree, I don't think there is no way the brewers sign Cain unless they think they could trade an Outfielder or 2 for a SP. Braun to 1st base isn't happening I think, so they really are in a pickle.

 

I agree with 82brew, Boomer5, and patrickgpe. Something has got to give.

 

Maybe they trade Aguilar, maybe they trade Thames, maybe they trade Santana.

 

Phlliips and Broxton can go to AAA, but I think one of Thames, Aguilar or Santana has to go. Just no roster space for all these guys.

 

Well I think they would like to trade Santana and Broxton, let Braun play in right and let Thames and Aguilar play 1st. The issue is that GM's know that the brewers need to do something and I can't see them getting equal return back. Phillips is a great 4th OF, Broxton would be a fine backup too, but I can't see Santana in AAA or on the bench and Braun already has expressed his displeasure of playing 1st base, so I can't see him not not being in the OF on opening day.

[bork]

Braun said he isn't comfortable at 1B yet. That's not the same thing as voicing displeasure at playing 1B.

[82brewcrew82]

Braun said he isn't comfortable at 1B yet. That's not the same thing as voicing displeasure at playing 1B.

You're correct but it also calls in to question just how much he is going to play there.

[wallus]

Braun said he isn't comfortable at 1B yet. That's not the same thing as voicing displeasure at playing 1B.

You're correct but it also calls in to question just how much he is going to play there.

 

Not really, he isn't the manager.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well I think they would like to trade Santana and Broxton, let Braun play in right and let Thames and Aguilar play 1st. The issue is that GM's know that the brewers need to do something and I can't see them getting equal return back. Phillips is a great 4th OF, Broxton would be a fine backup too, but I can't see Santana in AAA or on the bench and Braun already has expressed his displeasure of playing 1st base, so I can't see him not not being in the OF on opening day.

 

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun. But because that isn't going to happen, they are stuck square-pegging him into right field or 1B. I kind of think they'd love an outfield of Yelich/Cain/Phillips, but unless they find a way to wholesale offload guys, that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they were trying to flip Santana, Broxton and Aguilar. They could trade all of them, and still have plenty of depth.

[wildcat2237]

Well I think they would like to trade Santana and Broxton, let Braun play in right and let Thames and Aguilar play 1st. The issue is that GM's know that the brewers need to do something and I can't see them getting equal return back. Phillips is a great 4th OF, Broxton would be a fine backup too, but I can't see Santana in AAA or on the bench and Braun already has expressed his displeasure of playing 1st base, so I can't see him not not being in the OF on opening day.

 

I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade Braun. But because that isn't going to happen, they are stuck square-pegging him into right field or 1B. I kind of think they'd love an outfield of Yelich/Cain/Phillips, but unless they find a way to wholesale offload guys, that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they were trying to flip Santana, Broxton and Aguilar. They could trade all of them, and still have plenty of depth.

 

Flipping Santana, Broxton, and Aguilar would solve many of the ills.

 

Sadly, Phillips has looked completely lost this spring, so I imagine that might give Stearns some pause.

 

That said, I'm surprised an AL team hasnt made a decent offer for Aguilar.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Flipping Santana, Broxton, and Aguilar would solve many of the ills.

 

Sadly, Phillips has looked completely lost this spring, so I imagine that might give Stearns some pause.

 

That said, I'm surprised an AL team hasnt made a decent offer for Aguilar.

 

I have huge hopes for Phillips, and too have been disappointed in his showing. That said, I hope his standout showing last September, and great year in Colorado Springs play a larger role in his placement than a couple dozen Spring Training at bats. I agree that he could help himself by turning on the bat soon, though.

[istanbultaye]

I think any team that might see him as and upgrade to their bench probably assumes they could try to claim him on waivers for free, and don't desire him enough to trade for him to make sure they are the ones who would get him.

[TJseven7]

Soo close to hitting submit on a flame response to these responses but I'll try something softer. YW mods.

 

You know WHY I looked up all these numbers, and why I wrote this all out? I'm a Front Office dork. I am facinated by the strategy behind roster composition, cap schemes, value measurements, value skews etc etc etc. My sport is football, I like baseball but more than both I like constructing/deconstrction schools of thought to see why they work or why they don't. How they can be improved. What is next or at least could be.

 

I don't do it to get a dozen broken record spiels, or suggestions that we should take a path no small market team can afford, or nit picked on sky is falling possibilities that can upend any possible configuaration. I don't do this to hear, it wont work, when I've run down all the numbers that shows how it can fit.

 

I do this to evoke thought, discussion, an exchange of ideas, suggestions on how to exploit the valuations of the place is the cycle that we are currently in. You know, deep nerd fanatic scheme warping fun stuff.

 

If no one here cares for that stuff, I'll stop wasting my time. If you don't care to contribute something of worth to the subject at hand, throw your tweet responses in another thread.