2018-2019 Free Agent Starting Pitchers

[A Swing and A Drive]

Clayton Kershaw and David Price both have opt-out options but my guess is that Kershaw signs an extension and that Price doesn't opt out.

 

So what does that leave for the so-called vaunted 2018-19 Free Agent class as far as Starting Pitchers go?

 

I sorted them by handedness.

 

Name/Age next offseason

 

RHP Garret Richards (30)

RHP Matt Harvey (29)

RHP Lance Lynn (32)

RHP Charlie Morton (35)

RHP Brandon McCarthy (35)

RHP Adam Wainwright (37)

 

LHP Dallas Keuchel (31)

LHP Drew Pomeranz (30)

LHP Patrick Corbin (29)

LHP Drew Smyly (29)

LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)

LHP Gio Gonzalez (33)

LHP JA Happ (36)

LHP CC Sabathia (38)

 

There were a few other players who are not listed because I feel their clubs/players will exercise options. The one I was on the fence about was weather the Rangers would pick up a $20M option on a 35 year old Cole Hamels, but their staff is so terrible they likely will. I also left off crap, Franciso Liriano/Anibal Sanchez type Free Agents.

 

I was surprised at the sheer amount of LHP their were, albeit with a ton of red flags.

 

So do you fellas feel that Streans is waiting a year to sign a FA stater and if so, which guys would you guess are at the top of his list?

[DR28]

Wont have the money for Keuchel.

 

I hope Drew Pomeranz is #1 on his list... But Im sure he'll get big money from someone else.

 

Wouldnt mind Matt Harvey if he has a bounce back year... But again, if he has a good year he'll be out of our range.

[And That]

Garrett Richards has the most raw talent of anyone on those lists, but can't stay healthy.

 

Ryu is interesting if healthy, but more interesting if he can get his fastball back (velocity+movement).

[A Swing and A Drive]

I'm thinking Patrick Corbin or Hyun-Jin Ryu could be sneaky good value signings.

 

The difference between next year and this, however, is with THAT many rotation openings, there will be more competition for alot of these guys, driving their price up.

 

My guess is that Lance Lynn will land a better contract next offseason, for example.

(side note: Lynn just tossed 3 no-hit innings with 1 bb and 5 k in his spring debut for the Twinkies. )

[Boomer5]

If we didn't have the money for Lynn we don't have the money for anyone decent in 2019.

 

What a crazy offseason this has been.

[And That]

If we didn't have the money for Lynn we don't have the money for anyone decent in 2019.

Wow - ok, close the thread.

[istanbultaye]

If the rotation doesn't end up being the dumpster fire that many seem to fear this year, I wouldn't be shocked if we sit out the FA SP market again next year.

[A Swing and A Drive]

If Stearns cobbled together rotation somehow is good enough to get the Brewers one of the two NL Wild Card playoff spots...

 

The Brewers would almost certainly be the underdogs for the one game playoff this year due to not having an ACE to give the them an advantage in a one-game show down.

 

And even if Brewers got lucky in the one game, same can be said for a full playoff series as well.

This is our concern, dude.

 

[FVBrewerFan]

If the rotation doesn't end up being the dumpster fire that many seem to fear this year, I wouldn't be shocked if we sit out the FA SP market again next year.

 

Yea, it's possible. Way too many variables. Namely, Nelson, Anderson, Suter, Woodruff, Miley, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta. I mean if you have stable, predictable guys in Davies/ Chacin and then Anderson/Nelson pitch really well again this year, they probably don't go out and buy a FA. And/or two of Woodruff, Burnes,Ortiz,Peralta have big years.

 

Then there's always the possibility of a trade instead of signing one of those FA. But yea, if they have the money or not, I don't see DS getting into a bidding war for any of those guys.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Corbin would be intriguing to me for a guy we'd likely be in play for. The Cubs have Smyly signed to a 2 year deal this offseason, or at least have an option on him for next year as he rehabs from TJS this year, fyi.

 

Richards has always been a big favorite of mine but can't stay healthy. Keuchel seems like a ticking time bomb as well, last 2 years he's been 140-160 IP, wrong side of 30 as a FA, probably will want at least Arrieta money. Overall don't see a guy worth holding money back for this year to go after one of these guys next year.

[istanbultaye]

If Stearns cobbled together rotation somehow is good enough to get the Brewers one of the two NL Wild Card playoff spots...

 

The Brewers would almost certainly be the underdogs for the one game playoff this year due to not having an ACE to give the them an advantage in a one-game show down.

 

And even if Brewers got lucky in the one game, same can be said for a full playoff series as well.

This is our concern, dude.

 

 

With the possible exception of Darvish, I don't think any of the FA SPs could be said to be "Aces", who you would expect to match up to some of the top 10 pitchers you might worry about trying to beat in a 1 game playoff. Even when the Brewers picked up Sabathia in '08 and he single-handedly carried the team into the playoffs, it still didn't get them out of the wild card round, so even having an Ace is no guarantee of playoff success.

 

That said, having an Ace would be great!

 

I just think that if Stearns didn't see a guy he wanted this year, the rotation is going to have to crash and burn this year to make him change his methodology next year most likely. Or Cobb will be a Brewer tomorrow and the topic of FA pitchers next year will be moot.

[Brewer Fever]

It has nothing to do with the money not being there in the budget. The Brewers thankfully aren't going to spend just to spend. They spend when a player they rate highly going forward is available at a price that makes sense. So many childish remarks and so many armchair GMs. If they threw money at anything that moves just to fill every hole that currently exists, this team would be in the gutter in no time. So many of you think you sound so smart with your "I would have signed so and so for X amount of dollars" and "I would have signed either this guy or that guy and my rotation in 2018 would be this". The reality is that you sound extremely ignorant and completely unaware of how this process actually works.

 

Get outta here with your "if they don't spend this year, they won't next year" nonsense. Let's try and raise the level of intelligence here if possible.

[CheezWizHed]

I would imagine that if we don't sign one of the top FA pitchers this year, but sign one next year that will tell us a LOT about Stern's scouting/rating focus.

 

My gut feeling is that he has a system that (for right or wrong) is guiding him to avoid Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb this year. Or at least not spend much on them. If he signs someone next year (of the #1/#2 variety), it would tell us something about the metrics/analytics he is considering.

[istanbultaye]

Get outta here with your "if they don't spend this year, they won't next year" nonsense. Let's try and raise the level of intelligence here if possible.

 

Just to make sure my opinion is clear, since I think I'm the one proposing that they aren't much more likely to sign an SP next year than this year, it isn't that if they don't spend this year they won't next year. My reasoning is that, from an outsider's perspective, if the SPs this year didn't move the needle, it doesn't seem like the ones next year likely would either, unless the rotation ends up being pretty bad, which I do not necessarily anticipate. I don't pretend to know budget wise what the Brewers really can or can't spend this year or on an ongoing basis.

[Brewer Fever]

Get outta here with your "if they don't spend this year, they won't next year" nonsense. Let's try and raise the level of intelligence here if possible.

 

Just to make sure my opinion is clear, since I think I'm the one proposing that they aren't much more likely to sign an SP next year than this year, it isn't that if they don't spend this year they won't next year. My reasoning is that, from an outsider's perspective, if the SPs this year didn't move the needle, it doesn't seem like the ones next year likely would either, unless the rotation ends up being pretty bad, which I do not necessarily anticipate. I don't pretend to know budget wise what the Brewers really can or can't spend this year or on an ongoing basis.

 

I think what you're saying here is very sound. And no, my post was not in response to yours. It's these definitive, cry baby comments I keep seeing where if we don't sign someone to fill out the rotation NOW, we never will. Those are comments people should truly be embarrassed by.

[brewmann04]

I think if you can add Cobb @ a decent price he be a guy you add to replace Nelson.I don't think the rotation is good right now to be a playoff team but that just IMO. I don't think the brewers will go out next year after top tier FA pitcher.what would be nice was adding Cobb and getting a healthy Nelson back in Aug.

[TooLiveBrew]

Get outta here with your "if they don't spend this year, they won't next year" nonsense. Let's try and raise the level of intelligence here if possible.

 

Just to make sure my opinion is clear, since I think I'm the one proposing that they aren't much more likely to sign an SP next year than this year, it isn't that if they don't spend this year they won't next year. My reasoning is that, from an outsider's perspective, if the SPs this year didn't move the needle, it doesn't seem like the ones next year likely would either, unless the rotation ends up being pretty bad, which I do not necessarily anticipate. I don't pretend to know budget wise what the Brewers really can or can't spend this year or on an ongoing basis.

 

I think what you're saying here is very sound. And no, my post was not in response to yours. It's these definitive, cry baby comments I keep seeing where if we don't sign someone to fill out the rotation NOW, we never will. Those are comments people should truly be embarrassed by.

Please ease up on the rhetoric. Disagreement is fine & healthy, but stay away from name-calling, even when not singling out a specific poster. Thanks!

[liveforoctober]

I think if you can add Cobb @ a decent price he be a guy you add to replace Nelson.I don't think the rotation is good right now to be a playoff team but that just IMO. I don't think the brewers will go out next year after top tier FA pitcher.what would be nice was adding Cobb and getting a healthy Nelson back in Aug.

 

I've been flipping back and forth between this forum and the Packers forum and I read your first sentence and thought "Whoa, wait... I thought Randall Cobb was under contract this year already?!"

 

I'm with you now though ... continue.

[clancyphile]

I think much of what happens in the 2018-2019 offseason depends on the way the Brewers pitchers perform in 2018.

 

Scenario A (for Awful): Anderson regresses to his pre-2017 form, Nelson's a mess, Davies doesn't take a step up, Chacin stays Chacin, Suter and Woodruff don't take a step up. Ortiz and/or Burnes end up on the DL with Tommy John or something. The Brewers will need a wholesale revamp of the rotation, picking what they can salvage (or who will rebound) from who they need to deal or cut bait on.

 

Scenario B (for Baseline): Davies, Suter, and Woodruff take steps up, Chacin is solid, Nelson takes more time to heal, Anderson regresses, while Burnes and Ortiz are on schedule for a 2019 debut. At that point, I can see them going into the FA market or going for a trade to get that last piece.

 

Scenario C: Anderson proves 2017 isn't a fluke. Davies ends up being a not-so-dark horse candidate for Cy Young. Suter posts his 3.40-ish ERA and averages six innings a game. Woodruff posts an ERA in the 4.00 range. Chacin is solid. Nelson returns to form. Burnes and Ortiz dominate AAA. At this point, the Brewers may be dealing from a surplus in the 2018-19 offseason... as World Series champs.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

It has nothing to do with the money not being there in the budget. The Brewers thankfully aren't going to spend just to spend. They spend when a player they rate highly going forward is available at a price that makes sense. So many childish remarks and so many armchair GMs. If they threw money at anything that moves just to fill every hole that currently exists, this team would be in the gutter in no time. So many of you think you sound so smart with your "I would have signed so and so for X amount of dollars" and "I would have signed either this guy or that guy and my rotation in 2018 would be this". The reality is that you sound extremely ignorant and completely unaware of how this process actually works.

 

Get outta here with your "if they don't spend this year, they won't next year" nonsense. Let's try and raise the level of intelligence here if possible.

Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't seem like many, if any, want them to spend "just to spend." I think a good chunk of the board sees a need for starting pitching now and moving forward if we have any hopes to contend. Yes, we aren't David Sterns and no we aren't in the FO to know how the team values guys or exactly goes about their business and maybe they have a really clear picture forward internally that makes perfect sense from the pitching standpoint. But it's not wrong to question Sterns or the FO and just blindly trust them that every deal they do or don't do is the right move. It also shouldn't be wrong to question if he didn't price the market correctly, that's where some of the "I would have" talk comes from. His job is to see the "I would haves" and project how the market plays out.

 

The spending only on "players they rate highly that falls in their value window" has been said a bunch around here this offseason or variations of it and it's certainly a fine way to go about things and in an ideal world it's the way you want to operate but the league doesn't operate in a 100% efficient way. The Cain signing is an example of this for me, I just fail to see the calculus on how him at 5/80 is an optimal deal when so many of these pitchers came in at lower projected prices that would be "value" and are a area of much bigger need for the team. At some point you're going to likely have to do a deal or three that takes you out of that zone. If it's not this offseason they feel like doing that, again that's fine, it's going to have to be one soon unless they think every single pitcher in the organization is hitting their 90-95% projection, which just isn't happening.

 

It's just been such a weird offseason that it seems like there's definitely been some value deals either passed up by Sterns and the FO or at least miscalculated by doing deals early (Cain, Sogard, Vogt). I'm not trying to really even argue here, I'm just trying to talk things through to try and figure out their lines of thinking. It just seems so odd to me they sign a 32 year old CF for 5/80 and then stop and not add pitching when the pitching market is depressed and it's a need. Again maybe (likely) internally they just project so many greater things than the data we the public has to look at.

 

I also don't think it's crazy to look at next years pitching and think if they weren't wanting to or able to go to certain points on pitching they will do the same thing next year to a market of overall much lesser pitchers who are going to have more teams willing to spend with equal, if not greater, red flags. If they wouldn't meet Darvish or Arrieta at their prices why would we expect them to get to Keuchel's price next year as an example? Or if they sat out or didn't meet Lynn's price why would they do a same deal for a lot of those guys above if the opportunity presents itself?

 

Again, I know I'm new to the board and not trying to pick any fights or really even disagree with some of what you are saying. I just don't get how we can't question or try and expand the line of thinking from this year to next.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly if we don’t feel the need to upgrade the rotation this year I really doubt they will do it next year. Of course things can change (injury, suck, trade).

 

You are looking at:

 

1. Chase Anderson

2. Jimmy Nelson

3. Zach Davies

4. Jhoulys Chacin

5. Brandon Woodruff

6. Corbin Burnes

 

If they do sign someone I’d expect a lower end veteran if the need arises. I just don’t see the need, I really don’t. Woodruff will have a year under his belt and Burnes will get his feet wet potentially. Looking ahead I would plan for at least 4 of those guys to have promising years and lock up a 2019 rotational spot.

[Brewer Fever]

But it's not wrong to question Sterns or the FO and just blindly trust them that every deal they do or don't do is the right move. It also shouldn't be wrong to question if he didn't price the market correctly, that's where some of the "I would have" talk comes from. His job is to see the "I would haves" and project how the market plays out.

 

The spending only on "players they rate highly that falls in their value window" has been said a bunch around here this offseason or variations of it and it's certainly a fine way to go about things and in an ideal world it's the way you want to operate but the league doesn't operate in a 100% efficient way. The Cain signing is an example of this for me, I just fail to see the calculus on how him at 5/80 is an optimal deal when so many of these pitchers came in at lower projected prices that would be "value" and are a area of much bigger need for the team. At some point you're going to likely have to do a deal or three that takes you out of that zone. If it's not this offseason they feel like doing that, again that's fine, it's going to have to be one soon unless they think every single pitcher in the organization is hitting their 90-95% projection, which just isn't happening.

 

It's just been such a weird offseason that it seems like there's definitely been some value deals either passed up by Sterns and the FO or at least miscalculated by doing deals early (Cain, Sogard, Vogt). I'm not trying to really even argue here, I'm just trying to talk things through to try and figure out their lines of thinking. It just seems so odd to me they sign a 32 year old CF for 5/80 and then stop and not add pitching when the pitching market is depressed and it's a need. Again maybe (likely) internally they just project so many greater things than the data we the public has to look at.

.

 

I think the trap people fall into is looking at this in such a short window. It's clear here that many are disappointed that every hole hasn't been filled THIS OFFSEASON. It's clear that people are let down by the roster imbalance. I'd love it if they could transform this team in a World Series contender overnight too. But I also don't want them to overpay in trades or sign average pitchers to mega deals just to look good on paper.

 

If people really want a window, use the Cain signing to tell you what it is. And if you think he'll drop off too much in years 4 and 5, then call it a 3 year window. They obviously didn't spend $80 million on him not to try and compete for a championship at some point during his contract. But it also doesn't mean they should wildly spend resources on whatever is out there today to plug every hole. The FA pitching crop wasn't that impressive. There were a lot of warts and warning signs with the available starters. But that doesn't mean they won't add one sometime in the next 12 months. It could come via trade or perhaps they like someone in next year's crop better. Heck, it could even come internally. This time next year, this team's perceived weaknesses could be entirely different. But don't just jam square pegs into round holes. Shop smart, spend resources wisely, and jump at chances to add highly valued players when the opportunity presents itself. You're not going to make good investments under the gun. That being said they have put themselves on a reasonable timeline with the Cain signing. It's just not a single offseason.

 

There are a ton of comments about "this offseason makes no sense", or "I'm so disappointed with what they've done this offseason". "If they don't sign Cobb I'm going to be so mad", etc. To me that's petulant and childish. Try and see the big picture and be glad your small market GM doesn't recklessly try to build Rome in a day.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think that DBacks Lefty Patrick Corbin is establishing himself at the best player on this list of 2019 Free Agent Starters.

 

If this rumor is true that the Brewers were interested in Corbin this past offseason, it stand to reason they would be interested in him as a Free Agent.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/1/27/16940042/milwaukee-brewers-have-had-extensive-talks-with-arizona-about-patrick-corbin-per-report

 

I just hope now if he continues on a CY Young Award caliber walk season that he will price himself out of the Brewers market/price range.