Arrieta to Phillies - 3 year deal, $75 million

[topper09er]

And the Cubs get draft compensation for losing Arrieta. What a joke of a system that turned out to be.

 

I agree, you should get comps because you lost a player you wanted to keep. The Cubs get a pick for a guy they didn't even want on their team.

[TURBO]

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Phillies' contract with Jake Arrieta includes an opt-out clause after the second season.

 

Arrieta will earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019 and $20 million in 2020. The right-hander has the option to opt-out after the 2019 season, but the contract also allows the Phillies to void that potential opt-out clause in the form of a two-year extension for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In that event, Arrieta would earn $20 million per season for those two years, with incentives that could drive it up to $25 million per season. All told, the final deal could wind up being for five years and between $125 and $135 million.

 

Source: Jon Heyman on TwitterMar 11 - 7:35 PM

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wow, that could potentially be an albatross of a contract for the Phillies if Arrieta performs well enough for the void to kick in. So it's either a 2 year/$55 million deal, or a 5 year/$125-135 million deal. I guess Boras deserves some props for landing that contract this late in the game. It isn't the outlandish deal he was looking for in November, but it's still huge money.

[jerichoholicninja]

Arrieta and Derek Johnson were both with the Cubs at the same time right? I wonder if DJ had a lot of input in whether or not they went hard after Arrieta.

[JosephC]

I love this deal for Philadelphia. Based on historical salary data, I just don't think this is a place the Brewers could go. Cot's Baseball Contracts have the Brewer's opening day payroll maxing out at 104 million in 2015. Considering they are at about 90 million right now, adding another 25 million (ignoring the 30/25/20 structure of the final deal and just using a 25 million annual average value) would have put the Brewers payroll at 115 million, 10 million higher than it's ever been on opening day. One would have to assume that Attanasio would have been willing to go that high, which I think is pretty doubtful. And as has been pointed out by many, it really limits what they could do for the rest of the season. And since they don't have any big contracts coming off the books until after the 2020 season, and will be facing what could be some pretty significant arbitration raises, I'd argue that a move like this would have really handcuffed them for the next three seasons.

 

On the other hand, we have Philadelphia. From 2011-2015 they had an average opening day payroll of just under 165 million, topping out at 177 million in 2014. After adding Arrieta's 30 million dollar figure for 2018, the Philadelphia opening day payroll is still only estimated to be about 93 million dollars, not even 60% of what an average was from 2011-2015. And considering this deal only runs for 3 seasons, it's also unlikely that it handcuffs them in the future. Looking at the 2019 payroll situation, they should have easily have enough room to go after two of the top free agents next off-season and should be very competitive at the negotiating table.

 

As far as Arrieta's performance, he could continue to decline but I think it's more likely that his performance levels off and he maintains his 2017 performance over the next couple of seasons. It was unlikely the .260 BABIP and 6% HR/FB ratios were going to continue for him, last year those numbers were still below league average but were closer and are clearly more sustainable (.279 BABIP, 14.0% HR/FB). The FIP was 4.16, but the ERA was 3.53 and he has a history of the ERA outperforming the FIP (3rd consecutive year). The four projection services at Fangraphs averages out to a 3.82 ERA in 2018. I think that's about what his average will be over the next three seasons, and the Phillies will get about 550 innings out of him and an ERA right around 3.80. That's not worth a 75 million dollar investment for the team in MLB's smallest market, but for a team that can run a 175 million dollar payroll and only had about 63 million dollars in payroll commitments prior to the deal (literally less than 40% of what they've spent in the past), this Arrieta contract is well worth it for them.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just took a little review through the Brewers Twittersphere, and they did not take the Arrieta news well. Talk about depressing. I don't know who Bob Clay is, but I wouldn't doubt that he was once a poster here who got banned long ago. I don't think I've ever read anything from a "fan" who was more negative.

 

After reading all those "hot takes", I now want to either light myself on fire, or take a bleach bath.

[istanbultaye]

Why would you put yourself through the suffering of going out to read random fan hot takes on Twitter? There's a reason this is the only brewers fan hangout that I lurk in.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why would you put yourself through the suffering of going out to read random fan hot takes on Twitter? There's a reason this is the only brewers fan hangout that I lurk in.

 

I regretted the decision almost immediately. After about 5 minutes, though, it was like gawking at a car accident. Like you feel guilty about being there, but it's hard to look away.

[Invader3K]

I'm personally glad the Phillies signed him, and not the Brewers...especially for $25 million per year. He is simply not worth that price tag to us.

[istanbultaye]

Tinfoil hat on! I saw this quote from Jake on mlb.com from his introductory press conference:

 

"I want to thank the Middleton family and the Phillies' front office for believing in me and believing that I can come in and move the needle," Arrieta said. "That's exactly what I look forward to doing with this organization."

 

Subtle dig at Stearns for saying SPs out there wouldn't move the needle for the Brewers?

[MadScientist]

Tinfoil hat on! I saw this quote from Jake on mlb.com from his introductory press conference:

 

"I want to thank the Middleton family and the Phillies' front office for believing in me and believing that I can come in and move the needle," Arrieta said. "That's exactly what I look forward to doing with this organization."

 

Subtle dig at Stearns for saying SPs out there wouldn't move the needle for the Brewers?

 

The question is what direction will he move the needle. Likely positive this year, but after that, don't hold your breath.

[MillerParkSouth]

I have no interest in him on what is essentially a 2 year/$55MM deal. Have at it Philly.

[MrTPlush]

I guess I will never get the hate for this deal. This gives a lot of leverage to the Phillies if he does good and at worst it is done in 3 years if he does bad. If he does great for two years let him opt out and dance in the streets. If he does really good tack on three more years if YOU want to. For us we would have lost a a 3rd rounder?

 

The only reason I am not upset the Brewers didn't make a deal like this is because our payroll would really be put towards maximum capacity at $25mil a season. I think it is a pretty good deal for a team like Philly though.

 

I do find it a little funny people freak out when a deal is 5+ years saying "Way too long!", but when it is potentially getting 2 great years followed by an opt out it is "Whew! That would have been terrible losing a draft pick for that" The happy medium must be 3 years.

[coolhandluke121]

Wow, that could potentially be an albatross of a contract for the Phillies if Arrieta performs well enough for the void to kick in. So it's either a 2 year/$55 million deal, or a 5 year/$125-135 million deal. I guess Boras deserves some props for landing that contract this late in the game. It isn't the outlandish deal he was looking for in November, but it's still huge money.

 

Technically the void doesn't just kick in though. Philly gets to choose whether to take that risk instead of giving Arrieta a chance to opt out. I very much doubt he pitches well enough for Philly to choose to pay him $20m+ in his age 34-36 seasons. Even if he's solid for 2 years, it's very possible they'd rather risk missing out on his age 34 season than commit to 3 more years. And he would pay taking a risk by opting out of $20m in 2019 as well. Just ask Mike Moustakas about leaving that kind of money on the table.

 

I'm really glad the Brewers didn't do this. I don't think it's the end of the world for Philly in that market though. I don't think they did enough to compete for a wild card, but the East is really weak this year, so I guess an average team could easily win 85+ there. Still think the Brewers are much better than them though. The main aspect of this deal for the Brewers is that the Cardinals didn't sign him - not that it would have been a good move for them long-term, but it would have made it a little tougher to compete in the central this year.

[coolhandluke121]

I guess I will never get the hate for this deal. This gives a lot of leverage to the Phillies if he does good and at worst it is done in 3 years if he does bad. If he does great for two years let him opt out and dance in the streets. If he does really good tack on three more years if YOU want to. For us we would have lost a a 3rd rounder?

 

I think it's partly hatred for Arrieta and Boras, but the concerns about Arrieta's trajectory are legitimate. Might be worth the risk for Philly though.

 

I don't think they would have lost a 3rd-rounder. They already gave that up for Cain. Everyone in the media always says they would lose a 4th-rounder if they signed Arrieta or Cobb. I will take them at their word, but I don't understand how the CBA causes that. As a revenue-sharing recipient, you're supposed to give up your 3rd-highest pick when you sign a guy who rejected a QO from his old team. You give up your 4th-highest pick if you sign another one. But the Brewers' 3rd-highest pick is a comp round B pick right before the 3rd-round, and I didn't think those were exempt. So they should have given that up for Cain, and then would give up their 3rd-rounder (their 4th highest pick) for Cobb.

 

Is it possible that Cain signed before the comp round B pick was granted, when their 3rd-rounder would have still been their 3rd highest pick? That would be pretty shrewd of them to keep their top 3 picks if they did have hopes of signing two guys who rejected QO's.

[KeithStone53151]

I do find it a little funny people freak out when a deal is 5+ years saying "Way too long!", but when it is potentially getting 2 great years followed by an opt out it is "Whew! That would have been terrible losing a draft pick for that" The happy medium must be 3 years.

 

I get this point completely. I find it a bit crazy that Minnesota would give up a 3rd round pick for 1 year of Lance Lynn...who likely will be more of a #3 starter. 3 years, especially for a pitcher, seems like about the right deal to justify giving up that draft pick. If a pitcher isn't good enough that you feel comfortable making a 3 year deal...you probably shouldn't be comfortable giving a 1 year deal and draft pick.

[jerichoholicninja]

Was watching High Heat while on the treadmill today and Arrieta made some comments about being upset teams weren't willing to up their offer to him and criticizing teams for not trying to win. Rarely do I find Russo saying anything intelligent but he nailed it today. Owners weren't complaining when players were getting $200M+ deals. George Steinbrenner never complained when one of his expensive free agents went bust. However, one offseason of free agents not getting mega deals and the players throw a fit. My own personal opinion is that the Cubs probably offered a deal better than this at some point during his years there and it was rejected. You made your choice Jake. Now you have to live with the results.

[pacopete4]

Was watching High Heat while on the treadmill today

 

[sarcasm]That's a bit creepy. Leave the poor guy alone.[/sarcasm]

[brewcrewdue80]

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Phillies' contract with Jake Arrieta includes an opt-out clause after the second season.

 

Arrieta will earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019 and $20 million in 2020. The right-hander has the option to opt-out after the 2019 season, but the contract also allows the Phillies to void that potential opt-out clause in the form of a two-year extension for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In that event, Arrieta would earn $20 million per season for those two years, with incentives that could drive it up to $25 million per season. All told, the final deal could wind up being for five years and between $125 and $135 million.

 

Source: Jon Heyman on TwitterMar 11 - 7:35 PM

 

I feel like a few posts from some posters here suggested a contract like this. Paying him 55mil in 2years with an opt out and the 20mil the years after.

 

Boras reads our forum!

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree with MrTPlush that this deal is a great one for the Phillies

 

Best Case

Jake pitches like a near-ACE for 2 seasons at $55M total.

 

If this happens the Phillies have the ball in their court and can either...

A. Choose to extend him for a 4th and 5th year at $20M per

B. Let him opt out and still be happy you got what you paid for.

 

Worst Case

He pitches more like a #3 stater in both years #1 and #2 and you are on the hook for the third year at $20M.

 

This isn't even that terrible of a deal worst case, because even as such he's still probably the 2nd best SP on the Phillies behind Nola and will eat innings.

 

I suppose him being injured for all 3 years would be absolute worst case but that's a risk with any pitcher.

 

 

 

All this could have been said the same for the Brewers and if he pitches like a #3 starter for 3 years, he's still better than anyone in our rotation beyond maybe Nelson and Anderson.

 

I think the Brewers will regret passing on this type of deal for Jake Arrieta after one Wade Miley MLB start.

[young guns]

Your worst case is more like mild case. Worst case is he bombs or gets a career ending injury and they are paying him 75 mil for 3 years.

[A Swing and A Drive]

lol. I did add that injury is obviously a worse case.

 

However, it would be hard for anyone to argue IMO, that Arrieta doesn't have the ability to pitch at the very least like a #3 MLB starter for the next 3 seasons.

[KeithStone53151]

lol. I did add that injury is obviously a worse case.

 

However, it would be hard for anyone to argue IMO, that Arrieta doesn't have the ability to pitch at the very least like a #3 MLB starter for the next 3 seasons.

 

Not really actually, especially seasons 2 and 3. Plenty of pitchers flip a switch and go from dominant to mediocre or completely fall off very suddenly. He's already showing signs of it with his velocity dip(94.6 to 93.7 to 92.1). If it dips again(say 91), and then again in 2019(say 90)...I'd bet he ends up projected to be a back end starter for the 2020 season. His other pitches are simply not good enough if he can't hit at least 93-94 consistently.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm personally glad the Phillies signed him, and not the Brewers...especially for $25 million per year. He is simply not worth that price tag to us.

 

 

Well, I was in favor of giving him 80 million over 3 year just so long as it wasn't more than 3 years, so I wish we could have made this happen. I think this would have been a difference making move for us.

 

But I was never really all that interested in the starting pitchers on this market. I really wanted Chatwood early and I like the guys they did pick up at the prices they did.

[young guns]

lol. I did add that injury is obviously a worse case.

 

However, it would be hard for anyone to argue IMO, that Arrieta doesn't have the ability to pitch at the very least like a #3 MLB starter for the next 3 seasons.

I did miss where you talked about injury, but that was only half of my worst case scenario. He certainly has the ability, currently(by which I mean last year since we haven't even seen him in spring training this year), to pitch like a #3 for the next 3 years, but to say his floor, barring injury, is a #3 for the next 3 years just doesn't make sense.